[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/农业 证券研究报告 华统股份（002840）公司研究报告 2024 年 05 月 09 日 [Table_QuoteInfo] -26.97% -13.97% -0.97% 12.03% 25.03% 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 华统股份 海通综指 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅（ % ） | 1.4 | 17.1 | 20.6 | | 相对涨幅（ % ） | -0.5 | 14.5 | 11.5 | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | | | | --- | |----------------------------| | | | 分析师 : 李淼 | | Tel:(010)58067998 | | Email:lm10779@haitong.com | | 证书 :S085051712 ...

华统股份（002840.SZ） 买入 养殖产能储备充裕，生猪出栏稳步上量。2024Q1 公司合计出栏 65.7 万头， 同比增长 23%，增速领先同行。公司产能稳步上量，截至 2024Q1 末，公司生 产性生物资产 2.88 亿元，环比 2023 年末增加 5%。当前能繁母猪存栏 15 万 头，后备母猪 5 万头。考虑到公司从 2022 下半年开始进行高效种猪升级， 预计从今年下半年开始月度母猪存栏会明显提升，2024-2025 年公司出栏目 标依次为：400-500 万头、600 万头。此外，公司资金实力较强，截至 2024Q1 末，货币资金数量达 7.52 亿元，较 2023 年末增长 20%。此外，公司拥有多 元化资金来源，总目标希望今年负债率下降到 70%以下。目前 2025 年公司生 猪出栏对应的养殖资产头均市值仅 2000 元，未来估值修复空间足够。 华统拥有三大核心优势，有望铸就单位超额收益+出栏增速快的周期成长股。 具体来看：1）区域优势造就单位超额收入。浙江养殖资产具备稀缺性，一 是浙江属生猪销区，商品猪均价在周期景气期通常高于全国接近 2 元/公斤； 二是浙江几乎没有农民养户，是天然养殖无 ...

[分析师： Table_Author]钱浩 SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 周舒玥 SAC 执证号：S0260523050002 021-38003537 zhoushuyue@gf.com.cn 请注意，周舒玥并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|------------| | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | | | 华统股份（ 002840.SZ ） :23 | 2024-04-23 | | 年业绩符合预期，出栏有望 | | | 维持高增长 | | | 华统股份（ 002840.SZ ） :2 | 2024-03-15 | | 月生猪出栏同比持平，出栏 | | | 增长弹性值得期待 | | | 华统股份（ 002840.SZ ） :23 | 2024-01-31 | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 4 ...

Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 1,996,427,252.33, representing a slight increase of 0.52% compared to CNY 1,986,139,049.57 in the same period last year[7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of CNY 157,297,084.34, a decline of 50.41% from a loss of CNY 104,579,201.36 in the previous year[7] - The basic earnings per share for Q1 2024 was -CNY 0.26, a decrease of 44.44% from -CNY 0.18 in the same period last year[7] - Net loss for Q1 2024 was CNY -164,821,020.87, compared to a net loss of CNY -143,392,028.89 in the same period last year[40] - Total operating revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 1,996,427,252.33, a slight increase from CNY 1,986,139,049.57 in the previous year[37] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly by 90.30%, amounting to CNY 20,368,895.18 compared to CNY 209,926,360.12 in the same period last year[7] - The cash inflow from operating activities totaled ¥2,193,819,385.90, a slight decrease of 0.7% compared to ¥2,208,880,816.67 in the previous period[49] - The cash outflow from operating activities increased to ¥2,173,450,490.72, up from ¥1,998,954,456.55, resulting in a net cash flow from operating activities of ¥20,368,895.18, down significantly from ¥209,926,360.12[49] - The cash inflow from financing activities was ¥612,758,833.33, down from ¥1,011,048,093.90, while cash outflow for financing activities decreased to ¥425,721,393.77 from ¥1,075,590,611.22[52] - The net cash flow from financing activities improved to ¥187,037,439.56, compared to -¥64,542,517.32 in the previous period[52] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of Q1 2024 were CNY 9,178,239,357.89, an increase of 3.03% from CNY 8,908,249,931.99 at the end of the previous year[9] - The company's total liabilities increased to CNY 7,046,591,973.37 from CNY 6,653,032,971.65 year-over-year[36] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.87%, totaling CNY 1,951,434,898.89 compared to CNY 2,073,050,840.59 at the end of the previous year[9] - The total equity attributable to shareholders decreased to CNY 1,951,434,898.89 from CNY 2,073,050,840.59[36] Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in financial expenses by 47.85%, amounting to CNY 60,945,158.10 compared to CNY 41,221,705.11 in the previous year[14] - Financial expenses rose to CNY 60,945,158.10 from CNY 41,221,705.11, with interest expenses accounting for CNY 57,731,781.71[40] - The investment income showed a loss of CNY 1,288,504.64, which is a 277.84% decline from a loss of CNY 341,017.12 in the same period last year[14] Investments and Shareholder Information - The company reported a total of 187,046,405 shares held by its largest shareholder, Huadong Group, which constitutes a significant portion of the total shares[22] - The company has no significant changes in the financing and securities lending activities of its top shareholders[21] - The company has maintained a stable level of long-term investments, with long-term equity investments at approximately ¥42.56 million[29] Other Financial Metrics - Research and development expenses for Q1 2024 were CNY 8,646,147.76, down from CNY 9,733,725.01 in the previous year[40] - Deferred income tax liabilities increased, indicating potential future tax obligations[36] - Other non-current liabilities rose to CNY 475,530,958.89 from CNY 372,430,027.38, suggesting increased long-term financial commitments[36] Inventory and Receivables - Current assets totaled approximately ¥2.23 billion, up from ¥1.96 billion, indicating a growth of around 13.63%[29] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to approximately ¥751.59 million from ¥628.47 million, representing a growth of about 19.55%[26] - Inventory stood at approximately ¥978.68 million, slightly up from ¥965.44 million, showing an increase of about 1.29%[29] - Accounts receivable rose to approximately ¥82.47 million from ¥38.21 million, marking a significant increase of about 115.56%[26] Strategic Developments - The company has no new strategies or significant mergers and acquisitions reported in the current quarter[21] - The company paid ¥44,198,485.69 in dividends, slightly down from ¥46,628,968.37 in the previous period[52]

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 04 月 26 日 证券研究报告•2023 年年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：21.25 元 华统股份（002840）食品饮料 目标价：25.53 元（6 个月） [Table_Summary 业绩总结：公司发布 ] 2023年年度报告。公司 2023年全年实现营收 85.8亿元， 同比-9.2%；实现归母净利润-6.0亿元，同比-789.3%。其中，Q4实现营业收入 24.1 亿元，同比-20.4%；归母净利润-2.5 亿元，同比-681.8%。 点评：生猪出栏维持高增，猪价低迷导致亏损。公司利润同比出现大幅下降主 要原因系随着公司猪场产能持续投产，出栏量迅速增长但受供求关系影响生猪 价格持续低位运行。2023年公司共计销售生猪 230.3万头，同比+91.1%，；销 售均价 15.0元/公斤，同比-23.6%。公司 2023 年屠宰生猪 448.17 万头， 同 比增长 29.38% 。报告期内饲料加工业务目前产能接近 80 万吨；家禽销售数 量约 1131.24 万羽，屠宰量约1101.4 万羽。 能繁母猪进一步加速去化，养殖行业反转成确定性趋势。 ...

[Table_Summary 业绩总结：公司发布 ] 2023年年度报告。公司 2023年全年实现营收 85.8亿元， 同比-9.2%；实现归母净利润-6.0亿元，同比-789.3%。其中，Q4实现营业收入 24.1 亿元，同比-20.4%；归母净利润-2.5 亿元，同比-681.8%。 点评：生猪出栏维持高增，猪价低迷导致亏损。公司利润同比出现大幅下降主 要原因系随着公司猪场产能持续投产，出栏量迅速增长但受供求关系影响生猪 价格持续低位运行。2023年公司共计销售生猪 230.3万头，同比+91.1%，；销 售均价 15.0元/公斤，同比-23.6%。公司 2023 年屠宰生猪 448.17 万头， 同 比增长 29.38% 。报告期内饲料加工业务目前产能接近 80 万吨；家禽销售数 量约 1131.24 万羽，屠宰量约1101.4 万羽。 能繁母猪进一步加速去化，养殖行业反转成确定性趋势。国家统计局数据显示， 2024 年一季度末，全国生猪存栏 40850万头，对比去年同期减少 2244万头， 同比下降 5.2%，创造 4 年来新低；从生猪存栏量来看，从 2023 年第三季度开 始，已经连续 2个季度出现 ...

24 年公司业绩将受益于猪价上行、出栏量增长的双重推动。一 是，23 年以来生猪产能持续去化，农业部能繁存栏数据已累计去化超 过 10%。24 年行业供需将明显改善，推动猪价温和回升。二是，公司 主要布局在江浙沪的高猪价区域，且公司前期建设的产能仍处于释放 周期，24 年出栏目标为 400-500 万头，继续维持较高增长。 ⚫ 盈利预测及投资评级 行业周期向好，同时公司出栏量高增，公司业绩将明显改善。我 们预计公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 为 0.69 元、2.34 元和 1.54 元。按出栏 目标下限测算，当前公司 2024 年头均市值仅 3300 元左右。公司成长 性突出，且估值低位，我们维持"买入"评级。 ⚫ 风险提示： 发生疫情风险，价格不及预期风险。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------------------------|-- ...

华统股份（002840.SZ）2023 年年报点评 [盈利预测与财务 Table_Forcast] 指标 生猪出栏维持高增，降本目标持续兑现 2024 年 04 月 24 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 4 月 23 日发布 2023 年年报，2023 年全年实现营收 85.8 亿 元，同比-9.2%；实现归母净利润-6.0 亿元，同比-789.3%；计提资产减值损失 1.6 亿元，拖累全年业绩表现。其中，Q4 实现营业收入 24.1 亿元，同比- 20.4%；归母净利润-2.5 亿元，同比-681.8%，计提资产减值损失 0.6 亿元。 ➢ 2023 年生猪出栏维持高增，降本目标持续兑现。2023 年公司共计销售生 猪 230.3 万头，同比+91.1%；销售均价 15.0 元/公斤，同比-23.6%，出栏均重 在 122-123kg。其中 Q4 销售生猪 62.2 万头，销售均价 14.4 元/kg。公司养殖 成本逐渐向行业优秀梯队靠拢，四季度公司完全成本已经降至 16.5 元/kg。按 照 122Kg 的出栏均重计算，公司四季度头均亏损约 256 元。2024 年公司规划 出栏生猪 400-500 万头，目前已有 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 华统股份（002840.SZ） 买入 2023 年报点评：成本稳步下行，出栏快速增长 养殖成本保持下行，单位超额收益优势持续验证。公司发布 2023 年报，2023 年归母净利润亏损 6.05 亿元，2023Q4 归母净利亏损 2.47 亿元。单四季 度分业务看：1）养殖端，Q4 生猪板块亏损预计可能接近 2.2-2.4 亿元， 其中减值预计约 7000 万元，公司生猪出栏 62.2 万头（仅商品猪），合 计经营性亏损预计约 1.5-1.8 亿元，测算得出头均肥猪亏损约 270 元。 2）其他业务：屠宰盈利预计接近 3000-5000 万元；家禽同其他业务亏 损、以及总部费用预计可能接近 5000-6000 万元。我们由 Q4 业绩倒算 出公司养殖完全成本约 16.4 元/kg，较 2023Q3 的 16.9 元/kg 进一步下 降；此外，公司地处浙江，Q4 生猪销售均价 14.3 元/kg，区域优势明显。 现金流状况良好，产能转固加速。基于养殖成本管控优势及屠宰现金流优势， 公司 2023 年经营现金流拥有净流入 5.26 亿元。截至 2023 年底，公司拥有 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company has experienced high growth in livestock output while steadily reducing costs, positioning it as a quality target during the cyclical reversal phase. The forecast for 2024 has been raised due to expectations of a stronger-than-previously anticipated cyclical reversal [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 8.578 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -605 million yuan, a decline of 789.34% [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.112 billion yuan in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.80 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.9 times [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a livestock output of 2.3027 million heads, an increase of 91.13%, with an average price of approximately 15.0 yuan per kilogram. The total cost for the year was about 17.2 yuan per kilogram, which decreased to 16.4 yuan per kilogram in Q4 2023 [5]. - The company is projected to increase its livestock output to 4 million heads in 2024, representing a growth of 73.71%, with the total cost expected to drop to 16 yuan per kilogram [5]. - The company’s slaughtering business is expected to see a steady increase in volume, with a projected slaughter volume of 6 million heads in 2024, supported by a robust cash flow and sufficient financial resources [10]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 16.05 billion yuan in 2024, 20.54 billion yuan in 2025, and 21.26 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 87.1%, 28.0%, and 3.5% respectively [4][21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to recover to 1.112 billion yuan in 2024, followed by 1.883 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.551 billion yuan in 2026 [4][21]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 11.4% in 2024, with a net margin of 7.5% [21].