农林牧渔行业2025年中期投资策略 把握修复主线，关注底部机会 西南证券研究院 农林牧渔研究团队 2025年7月 核心观点 养殖板块：政策调控力度加大，供需格局向好。发改委等部门近期密集出台生猪产能调控措施，包 括限制头部企业增加能繁母猪存栏、强制降重（出栏体重要求降至120公斤）和抑制二次育肥等， 这些举措已初显成效。预计产能优化政策将进一步加码（如扩大监管范围、加强环保督查），助力 提升CPI目标和行业猪价中枢。重点关注企业盈利能力与成本控制能力。推荐牧原股份（002714）、 温氏股份（300498）、立华股份（300761）、华统股份（002840）。 风险提示：养殖端突发疫情，消费需求不及预期等。 核心观点 肉牛行业：供给深度出清孕育大周期。国内肉牛养殖高度分散（90%以上养殖户规模不足10头）， 类似2019年前的生猪行业，在长期深度亏损下产能超调风险显著。2024年牛肉价格已跌到近5年最 低，活牛价格更是跌到近10年的最低水平。2024 年 11月单头亏损达1600元以上， 已连续8个月亏 损超千元，导致行业加速淘汰母牛和减少补栏 。母牛PSY仅1（远低于能繁母猪的PSY 30），预计 2025 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《7 月 USDA 农产品报告下调全球玉 米、水稻、小麦产量，上调大豆产量 —行业点评报告》-2025.7.15 《生猪龙头 2025Q2 利润高增，犊牛 价格持续上行牛周期景气有支撑—行 业周报》-2025.7.13 《供给收缩与宏观催化共振，2025Q3 猪 价 存 在 强 支 撑 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.7.6 10 短期供给增加致猪价下滑，震荡消化后中枢或抬升 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（分析师） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790525070003 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：短期供给 ...

资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，2025H1 公司预计实现归母净利润 7500-9000 万元，实现扣非归母净利润 6000-7800 万元，同比实现扭亏转 盈。其中 2025Q2 预 计实现归母净利润 4100-5600 万 元（ yoy+6.68%- 45.91%）。 养殖盈利驱动扭亏，Q2 归母净利润预计增长稳健。2025H1 公司预计实现归 母净利润 7500-9000 万元，同比实现扭亏，其中 2025Q2 预计实现归母净利 润 0.41-0.56 万元（yoy+6.68%-45.91%）。成本端，2025 年 3 月完全成本下 降至 13.9 元/公斤，相较于 2024 年底 15.2 元/公斤，下降了 8.55%。Q2 商 品猪销售均价从 14.8 元/公斤逐步下降至 14.2 元/公斤。2025H1 共出栏生猪 127.12 万 头 （ yoy-4.88% ）， 其 中 商 品 猪 和 种 猪 共 出 栏 123.81 万 头 （yoy+8.86%）；仔猪出栏 3.31 万头（yoy-83.37%）。 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 20 ...

浙江华统肉制品股份有限公司 证券代码：002840 证券简称：华统股份 公告编号：2025-088 2025 年 6 月畜禽销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 2025年6月份，商品猪销售均价14.20元/公斤，比2025年5月份下降2.07%。 2、鸡销售情况 2025年6月份鸡销售数量87.12万只，环比变动-5.19%，同比变动-10.63%。 2025年6月份鸡销售收入1,243.15万元，环比变动-17.08%，同比变动-24.53%。 上述销售数据未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异，因此上 述数据仅作为阶段性数据供投资者参考。 浙江华统肉制品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）部分全资及控股子公司 经营范围包括畜禽养殖业务，现公司就每月畜禽销售情况进行披露，具体内容如 下： 一、2025 年 6 月份销售情况 1、生猪销售情况 2025年6月份，公司生猪销售数量200,376头（其中仔猪销售0头），环比变动 0.12%，同比变动-2.58%。 2025年6月份，公司生猪销售收入34,792.96万元，环比变动-3. ...

证券代码：002840 证券简称：华统股份 公告编号：2025-087 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 浙江华统肉制品股份有限公司 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日 2、业绩预告情况：□亏损 ☑扭亏为盈 □同向上升 □同向下降 | 项 目 | | 本报告期 | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利：7,500 | 万元~9,000 | 万元 | 亏损：11,905.69 万元 | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 盈利：6,000 | 万元~7,800 | 万元 | 亏损：12,638.23 万元 | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利：0.09 | 元/股~0.11 | 元/股 | 亏损：0.20 元/股 | 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本次业绩预告未经注册会计师预审计。 三、业绩变动原因说明 报告期内，公司生猪养殖成本稳步下降，生猪养殖业务实现盈利。 2025 年半年度业绩预告 商品猪市场价格的大幅波动（下降或 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" for the agricultural sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.01 percentage points during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with a weekly increase of 2.55% [15][17] - The pig farming sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to the recovery of breeding profits and the ongoing rise in pig prices [4][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control for listed pig farming companies to navigate the pig cycle effectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index closed at 2,729.26, ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries in terms of weekly performance [15][17] - The fishery sector showed the best performance with a 5.13% increase, followed by breeding, agricultural product processing, feed, and planting sectors with respective increases of 3.12%, 2.96%, 2.30%, and 1.63% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - Pig prices continued to rise, with the national average price reaching 15.35 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 4.28% [2] - Self-breeding profits increased to 119.72 yuan/head, while external piglet breeding profits improved to -26.26 yuan/head [2] - In the poultry sector, chicken prices remained under pressure due to high inventory levels, with broiler chick prices dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a 20% decrease week-on-week [2] Agricultural Products - Prices for wheat, corn, and soybean meal showed a week-on-week increase, with wheat averaging 2,451.06 yuan/ton (up 0.19%), corn at 2,367.14 yuan/ton (up 0.61%), and soybean meal at 2,928.00 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) [3][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, particularly companies with strong cost control such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - In the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for yellow feathered chickens [4] - For feed, it highlights industry leaders like Haida Group and regional leaders like Hefeng Stock as beneficiaries of the recovery in livestock demand [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of food security, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to provide strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of pigs on July 4 was 15.37 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg and a 4.84% rise [12][13] - The central economic committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote high-quality development of the marine economy, which is expected to benefit the aquaculture sector [21][36] - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.14 percentage points during the week of June 27 to July 4, with the agricultural index rising by 2.55% compared to a 1.40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [32][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs was 133,800 heads, a decrease of 7,300 heads from the previous week, indicating a seasonal decline in demand due to rising temperatures [12] - The supply side continues to contract due to previous over-culling and losses from piglets after the Spring Festival, which is expected to support prices [12] Price Trends - The average price of pigs increased to 15.35 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.63 yuan/kg. The price of piglets decreased to 31.33 yuan/kg, down by 0.27 yuan/kg [6][39] - The price of corn increased to 2,511 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices decreased to 2,926 yuan/ton, down by 27 yuan/ton [4][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the improving investment logic in the pig sector [27] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to domestic market benefits and strong overseas demand [27] Market Performance - The aquaculture sector led the market gains, with stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products rising by 12.22%, Shennong Technology by 7.31%, and Dongrui Co. by 6.92% during the week [32][35]

证券代码：002840 证券简称：华统股份 公告编号：2025-086 浙江华统肉制品股份有限公司 关于与专业投资机构共同投资的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、对外投资概述 为进一步优化资本结构、提升资金运作效率及效益，公司以零对价受让华统 集团有限公司持有的黄山供赢华统股权投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"供 赢基金"）30%的财产份额（对应认缴出资人民币 30,000 万元，未实缴出资）。基 金规模为 100,000 万元，其中公司作为有限合伙人拟以自有或自筹资金认缴 30,000 万元，认缴出资占比为 30%。公司已与各相关方签署了《黄山供赢华统股 权投资合伙企业(有限合伙)私募基金份额转让协议》、《黄山供赢华统股权投资合 伙企业（有限合伙）合伙协议》。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 6 月 3 日、2025 年 6 月 6 日在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）、《证券时报》、《证券日报》及《中 国证券报》上披露的《关于公司拟受让股权投资基金 30%份额暨关联交易的公 告》、《关于与专业投资机构共同投资的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply contraction has reached a point where the average price of live pigs is expected to rise, with the national average price at 14.74 yuan/kg as of June 29, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.45 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 3.17% [4][13] - The profit of pig farming enterprises is expected to maintain high growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by increased output, heavier average weights, and reduced costs [5][23] - The investment logic for the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive allocation strategy [6][30] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q2 2025, the average price of live pigs is projected at 14.55 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 11.22%, while the cost of pig farming has decreased to 13.38 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 2.92% [5][23] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.99 kg/head, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.07% in the total output of 12 major listed pig companies [5][23] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index underperformed the broader market by 1.11 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and the agricultural index increasing by 0.80% [34][36] - The aquaculture sector led the gains, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Biological Shares (+9.83%) and Spring Snow Food (+9.82%) [34][38] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, the national average price for live pigs was 14.72 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price for piglets was 31.6 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg [41][44] - The feed price ratio for pigs was recorded at 4.38:1, indicating the profitability dynamics in the sector [41] Recommendations - The report recommends actively allocating investments in leading pig companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as well as in the feed sector benefiting from strong overseas demand [6][30]

证券代码：002840 证券简称：华统股份 公告编号：2025-085 浙江华统肉制品股份有限公司 关于对外担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、浙江华统肉制品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）实际对外担保余额 为 334,015 万元，超过最近一期经审计净资产的 100%，敬请投资者充分关注担 保风险。 2、本次担保对象浙江华服农业开发有限公司最近一期的资产负债率高于 70%，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保基本情况 公司于 2025 年 6 月 26 日向新余海合生物科技有限公司出具了《担保函》， 同意为公司全资子公司浙江华服农业开发有限公司（以下简称"华服农业"）与 新余海合生物科技有限公司于 2025 年 5 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日期间内签 署的《饲料委托加工合同》约定的义务提供连带责任保证担保，担保金额不超过 100 万元人民币。保证期间为主债务履行期届满后两年内。保证责任范围包括但 不限于债权人为实现债权而发生的诉讼费、保全费、鉴定费、差旅费、律师费等 费用以 ...