2025 年 03 月 28 日 N 型出货占比持续提升，关注出海进度 —钧达股份（002865.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 钧达股份发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收入 99.52 亿元，同比下滑 46.66%；实现归母净利润-5.91 亿 元，同比下滑 172.47%。 投资要点 ▌行业下行带来全年亏损，预计 25 年企稳回升 2024Q4 公司实现营业收入 17.5 亿元，实现归母净利润-1.7 亿元，主要是受制于行业处于去产能周期，产业链价格下 行，对公司经营业绩造成不利影响。目前，光伏行业去产能 周期进入后程，光伏行业供需关系逐步改善，产业链各环节 价格逐步提升。行业协会持续强化自律，呼吁光伏企业不得 低于成本销售与投标，防止"内卷式"恶意竞争，促进市场 优胜劣汰，一季度电池片价格已明显上涨，预计光伏行业企 稳回升。 ▌N 型电池出货提升，保持行业领先 公司于 2022 年底率先实现 N 型 TOPCon 电池大规模量产。截 至 2024 年底，公司已拥有 44GW N 型电池产能，2024 年公司 实现电池产品出货 33.74GW，同比增长 12.62%；其中 ...

2025 年 03 月 28 日 N 型出货占比持续提升，关注出海进度 —钧达股份（002865.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 钧达股份发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收入 99.52 亿元，同比下滑 46.66%；实现归母净利润-5.91 亿 元，同比下滑 172.47%。 ▌海外销售占比增长，关注公司出海节奏 目前海外光伏电池产能较为短缺，海外优质光伏电池产能存 在明显缺口，成为制约海外光伏本土产业链形成和发展的关 键。公司海外销售占比从 2023 年 4.69%大幅增长至 2024 年 的 23.85%，其中，印度、土耳其、欧洲等主要海外市场占有 率行业领先。除电池出口业务市场拓展以外，公司拟进一步 通过产能出海形式，构建海外稀缺电池产能，辐射海外高价 值市场需求，增强公司全球市场电池产品供应能力。 ▌盈利预测 预测公司 2025-2027 年收入分别为 132.32、170.37、204.42 亿元，EPS 分别为 3.87、6.67、8.15 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 14.6、8.4、6.9 倍，我们认为，公司 N 型电池出货行 业领先，出海持续推进，看好公 ...

2025 年 3 月 25 日 公司研究 N 型产品出货量行业领先，产能出海带来业绩增量 ——钧达股份（002865.SZ）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 99.52 亿元，同比减少 46.66%，实现归母净利润-5.91 亿元，同比减少 172.47%；2024Q4 实现营业收 入 17.50 亿元，同比减少 59.08%，实现归母净利润-1.74 亿元，同比环比均有 所减亏。 N 型电池出货量保持行业领先，盈利能力阶段性承压。 2024 年公司电池产品出货同比增长 12.62%至 33.74GW，出货排名全球第三； 其中 N 型 TOPCon 电池出货量同比增长 50.58%至 30.99GW，占公司出货比重 超 90%，出货量保持行业领先。在行业竞争加剧背景下电池片价格持续走低， 2024 年公司电池业务实现营业收入 99.24 亿元，同比减少 46.73%，毛利率同 比减少 14.21 个 pct 至 0.48%，盈利能力阶段性承压。 海外市场持续开拓，产能出海构建海外稀缺电池产能。 2024 年公司持续坚持全球化发展战略，一方面凭借行业领先的电 ...

海南钧达新能源科技股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-001 投资者关系活动类别 □ 特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 □ 媒体采访 √ 业绩说明会 □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 □ 现场参观 □ 其他 电话会议 参与单位名称及人员姓名 长江证券任佳惠；海通证券吴志鹏；太平洋证券钟欣材；东吴证 券曾朵红；财通证券吴锐鹏；中信建投证券任佳玮；国联民生证 券张磊；招商证券张伟鑫；浙商证券陈明雨；西南证券谢尚师； 国金证券张嘉文；华福证券魏征宇；天风证券敖颖晨；易方达基 金陈思源；交银施罗德基金傅爱兵；汇添富基金李超；南方基金 黄春逢；东兴基金孙义丽；兴业基金高圣；红杉资本闫慧辰；上 海正心谷投资周秀锋；广东正圆私募基金张萍；深圳中天汇富基 金慕陶；绿色发展基金周松；中国人寿资管刘子良；中国平安保 险张甡；民生通惠资管何文斌；中邮人寿保险张文鹏；中国太平 洋保险徐军平；摩根士丹利王子璦；博裕资本姜涵奕；交银国际 文昊；瑞士百达资产管理许汪洋；德意志银行周天宇；圆方资本 李今韵等。 时间 2025 年 3 月 21 日 (周五) 15:30～17:00 上市公司接待人员姓名 钧达股份董事、总经理张满良；副 ...

钧达股份 20250321 摘要 • 全球光伏需求保持高位，尤其受益于新能源车和人工智能发展，光伏作为 低成本发电方式将持续扩张，预计 2025 年行业增速维持在 15%左右，电 池环节供需关系有望改善。 • 海外光伏装机增速高于国内，各国积极构建本土组件产能，但电池环节仍 依赖中国厂商。钧达股份海外销售占比显著提升，2024 年达 24%，预计 2025 年将继续增长。 • 光伏行业经历一年多的去产能周期，中小企业退出，行业集中度提升，供 求关系改善，电池价格回升。预计 2025 年供求环境改善和集中度提升将 推动企业业绩增长。 • N 型技术市场渗透率快速提高，2024 年底已超 60%，预计 2026 年将占 据 80%以上份额，推动光伏技术效率提升和成本下降，加速旧技术淘汰。 • 钧达股份作为 N 型电池龙头，滁州和南京工厂开机率约 80%，N 型产品占 比超 90%，连续两年全球 N 型电池出货量第一，并通过加强非硅成本控制， 积极拓展海外市场。 Q&A 2024 年度光伏行业的变化及公司经营情况如何？ 2024 年全球光伏新增装机同比增长了 35.9%，这一增速出乎很多人的预料。 尽管 2020 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to lead the industry in N-type shipments in 2024, with a forecasted output of 33.7 GW, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, and a significant 90%+ of this being N-type [9] - The company is anticipated to recover in 2025, with a projected operating rate of around 80% and a potential reduction in losses in Q1 2025 [9] - The company is advancing its technology and overseas expansion, with a 5 GW N-type battery project in Oman expected to be operational by 2025 [9] - The report predicts a substantial increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected growth rates of 286.14%, 56.78%, and 20.89% respectively [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have total revenue of 9.95 billion yuan, with a net loss of 591.11 million yuan [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of 2.58 yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.80 yuan in 2025 [1] - The report forecasts a significant recovery in net profit, estimating 1.10 billion yuan in 2025, 1.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.08 billion yuan in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a peak of 47% in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - The company is focusing on improving production efficiency and reducing costs, with a target of increasing the average conversion efficiency of TOPCon batteries by over 0.5% this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 18,657 million in 2023, RMB 9,952 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 15,737 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 591 million in 2024 to RMB 1,718 million by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [3][15]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with a target gross margin of 19.6% by 2026 [17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in total shipments and first in N-type shipments within the industry, indicating a strong market position [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's overseas expansion plans, particularly the delayed project in Oman, which is expected to commence operations by the end of the year [7][8]. - The recent surge in battery prices due to increased demand is expected to support the company's recovery and profitability in the second half of the year [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a peak of 47% in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - The company’s battery cell shipments reached 33.74 GW, a 13% increase year-on-year, with N-type cells making up 92% of the total shipments [7][8]. - Recent policy changes have led to a surge in demand for battery cells, with prices for certain specifications rising significantly, indicating a potential for breakeven in some product lines [7][8]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue is projected to decline to RMB 9,952 million in 2024, before recovering to RMB 10,531 million in 2025 and RMB 14,914 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of RMB 165 million, and further growth to RMB 1,696 million by 2026 [3][15]. - The report notes a significant reduction in operating expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses decreasing by 15%, 25%, 35%, and 11% respectively [7][8]. - The company’s average gross margin for battery cells was RMB 0.001 per watt, with a notable improvement in the fourth quarter to RMB 0.007 per watt [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with ongoing projects in Oman and plans for H-share issuance [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining production efficiency and cost control to navigate the challenging market conditions [7][8]. - The company aims to enhance its production efficiency by over 0.5% this year, which is expected to support the mass production of TBC batteries [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, JunDa Co., Ltd. (002865 CH), with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current closing price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a remarkable 47% in Q4 [7][8]. - The company is focusing on improving production efficiency and reducing costs, with a target of increasing the average conversion efficiency of TOPCon batteries by over 0.5% this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 18,657 million in 2023, RMB 9,952 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 15,737 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 591 million in 2024 to RMB 1,718 million by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [3][15]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with overseas gross margins reaching 9.1% in the second half of last year, compared to -6.2% domestically [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in total shipments and first in N-type shipments in the industry, with a total shipment of 33.74 GW last year, a 13% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The report notes that recent policy changes in distributed photovoltaic systems have led to a surge in demand, driving up prices for certain battery types [7][8]. - The company is also working on establishing a factory in Oman, although progress has been slower than expected, with plans to complete the project by the end of the year [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point in performance, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contributing to its growth [1][7]. - The company has achieved a notable increase in the sales of TOPCon solar cells, with a 12.62% year-on-year growth in sales volume, and over 90% of sales coming from N-type TOPCon cells, which saw a 50.6% increase [7]. - The establishment of a 10GW battery production capacity in Oman is anticipated to enhance the company's global competitiveness and profitability [7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 99.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.66% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -591.11 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 172.47% [2][7]. - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is expected to recover, with net profits projected at 783.22 million yuan, 1.14 billion yuan, and 1.38 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant growth rates of 232.50%, 45.44%, and 21.27% [2][8]. - The average earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to improve from -2.58 yuan in 2024 to 6.03 yuan by 2027 [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 99.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 184.3 billion yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 30.53%, 23.40%, and 14.97% in the following years [2][8]. - The gross margin for solar cells is projected to improve significantly, from 0.5% in 2024 to 12.5% by 2027 [8]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability due to improved pricing in the domestic supply chain and enhanced overseas market performance [7].