每经AI快讯，2月25日，港股商业航天概念午后涨幅扩大。截至发稿，钧达股份(02865.HK)涨4.31%，报 37.24港元；蓝思科技(06613.HK)涨3.23%，报28.14港元；金风科技(02208.HK)涨2.49%，报14.82港元； 亚太卫星(01045.HK)涨2.05%，报3.99港元。 ...

太阳翼向柔性演进：单星功率提升要求太阳翼向轻量化、柔性化发展。 中邮证券近日发布商业航天&太空光伏系列深度(一)：卫星需求拉动太空光伏市场空间：卫星互联网应 用场景打开+战略布局+太空算力，低轨卫星需求将快速提升。太空光伏是卫星能源供应唯一供给方 案，受益于卫星数量+单星功率提升。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 卫星需求拉动太空光伏市场空间：卫星互联网应用场景打开+战略布局+太空算力，低轨卫星需求将快 速提升。太空光伏是卫星能源供应唯一供给方案，受益于卫星数量+单星功率提升。 技术路线迭代带来新机遇：砷化镓-HJT-钙钛矿叠层演进。(1)砷化镓为目前主流技术路线，可靠性高但 成本高昂。(2)p-HJT方案依托于成熟的晶硅产业，较砷化镓方案大幅降本，且异质结作为向钙钛矿叠层 方案发展的基础，预计在短中期有较大发展空间。(3)钙钛矿叠层方案目前仍处于起步研究阶段，存在 光照或高温环境下稳定性不足、寿命短等问题亟待突破，随技术成熟产能增加叠加降本，预计中长期将 有较大发展空间。 投资建议：建议关注迈为股份（300751）、东方日升（300118）、钧达股份（002865）。 风险提示：商业火箭发射降本、卫星发射频 ...

证券研究报告 商业航天规模化在即， 太空光伏打开成长空间 ——商业航天&太空光伏系列深度（一） 行业投资评级：强于大市|维持 中邮证券研究所 电新团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-24 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 卫星需求拉动太空光伏市场空间：卫星互联网应用场景打开+战略布局+太空算力，低轨卫星需求将 快速提升。太空光伏是卫星能源供应唯一供给方案，受益于卫星数量+单星功率提升。 太阳翼向柔性演进：单星功率提升要求太阳翼向轻量化、柔性化发展。 技术路线迭代带来新机遇：砷化镓-HJT-钙钛矿叠层演进。（1）砷化镓为目前主流技术路线，可靠性 高但成本高昂。（2）p-HJT方案依托于成熟的晶硅产业，较砷化镓方案大幅降本，且异质结作为向钙钛 矿叠层方案发展的基础，预计在短中期有较大发展空间。（3）钙钛矿叠层方案目前仍处于起步研究阶段， 存在光照或高温环境下稳定性不足、寿命短等问题亟待突破，随技术成熟产能增加叠加降本，预计中长期 将有较大发展空间。 投资建议：建议关注迈为股份、东方日升、钧达股份。 风险提示：商业火箭发射降本、卫星发射频次不及预期，技术迭代、产业落地不及预期，国际技术标准 与规则竞争 ...

消息面上，近日，国家能源局发布数据显示，2025年，全国光伏新增装机3.17亿千瓦，同比增长14%， 其中集中式光伏新增1.64亿千瓦，分布式光伏新增1.53亿千瓦。截至2025年12月，全国光伏发电装机容 量达到12亿千瓦，同比增长35%，我国光伏产业保持快速发展势头，能源绿色低碳转型取得显著成效。 国元证券表示，25年7月以来，我国"反内卷"举措推动光伏行业景气度上扬，价格管控与供给侧出清的 双重作用有望推动行业盈利修复，部分环节尾部企业陆续退出叠加行业头部企业高效化技改，2026年光 伏产业链有望实现扭亏；AI算力建设等将催生刚性电力需求，全球光伏需求存在超预期可能，板块β机 会有望加速到来。 光伏股多数回暖，截至发稿，信义光能(00968)涨5.38%，报3.72港元；钧达股份（002865）(02865)涨 4.95%，报38.2港元；福莱特（601865）玻璃(06865)涨4.82%，报11.96港元；凯盛新能（600876） (01799)涨4.1%，报3.27港元；协鑫科技(03800)涨2.48%，报1.24港元。 ...

经济观察网根据公开信息，钧达股份（002865）(002865.SZ)股价在近期出现下跌。截至2026年2月13日 收盘，公司股价报89.49元，当日下跌4.49%。 另一方面，公司股价自2025年12月以来因"太空光伏"概念受到市场热炒，累计涨幅巨大。但在概念炒作 的同时，公司控股股东于2026年1月抛出了减持计划，拟减持公司3%的股份，若按公告日股价计算，套 现金额可观。市场观点指出，在基本面拐点未现、新业务尚处早期探索阶段的情况下，重要股东的减持 行为可能对市场情绪产生影响。 板块变化情况 此外，从市场整体表现看，2026年2月13日，钧达股份所属的光伏设备板块整体下跌3.59%，行业板块 的调整也可能对个股走势带来压力。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股票近期走势 股价波动发生在公司基本面与市场热点交织的复杂环境下。一方面，公司经营业绩面临压力。根据2025 年度业绩预告，钧达股份预计全年归母净利润亏损12亿元至15亿元，较2024年亏损进一步扩大，这已是 公司连续两年亏损。亏损扩大的主要原因被归结为光伏行业供需失衡仍处于周期底部，以及主产业链价 格传导不畅等因素。特别是2025年第四季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic stocks have collectively declined, influenced by rising silver prices which have increased the cost of silver paste, subsequently affecting the costs of battery cells and modules [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) fell by 4.18%, trading at HKD 3.44 [1] - Xinte Energy (01799) decreased by 3.35%, trading at HKD 7.22 [1] - Flat Glass Group (601865) dropped by 2.94%, trading at HKD 11.24 [1] - Junda Co., Ltd. (002865) declined by 1.83%, trading at HKD 39.64 [1] Group 2: Cost Analysis - Silver prices have been on a gradual rise, directly increasing the cost of silver paste [1] - As of January 30, 2026, the complete cost of battery cells is projected to exceed CNY 0.5/W, reflecting a month-on-month increase of CNY 0.1/W [1] - The complete cost of modules has surpassed CNY 0.9/W [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Domestic market execution of ground project orders is gradually declining, with limited visibility on new orders [1] - The overseas market's demand is expected to strengthen due to changes in export tax rebates, with a forecast that Q1 2026 shipments will be primarily driven by the overseas market [1] - In the context of weak seasonal demand and recent price increases for modules, procurement attitudes are becoming more cautious, leading to insufficient order visibility for Q1 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a collective decline in solar stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Xinyi Solar, New Energy, Flat Glass, and Junda, attributed to rising silver prices impacting production costs [1] - Silver prices have been on a gradual rise, leading to increased costs for silver paste, which in turn affects the costs of battery cells and modules. By the end of January 2026, the complete cost of battery cells is expected to exceed 0.5 yuan/W, reflecting a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.1 yuan/W, while module costs have surpassed 0.9 yuan/W [1] - Since February 2026, silver prices have experienced significant volatility, causing real-time declines in the prices of battery cells and modules [1] Group 2 - Domestic market execution of ground project orders is gradually declining, with limited visibility on new orders. In contrast, the overseas market is expected to see increased shipments in the first quarter of 2026 due to the reversal of export tax rebates [1] - In the context of weak seasonal demand and recent price increases for modules, procurement attitudes are becoming more cautious, leading to insufficient visibility on orders for the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company has recently become the controlling shareholder of Shanghai Fuyou Xinghe Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd., holding a 60% stake, which enhances its capabilities in the satellite manufacturing sector [6]. - The company is entering the space energy market, which is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in low-cost and efficient energy solutions for low-orbit satellite constellations [6]. - The company has established a partnership with a technology team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences to develop advanced solar cell technologies, aiming to replace current mainstream solutions and reduce costs [6]. - The company is transitioning from being a component supplier to a satellite manufacturer, creating synergies between its energy products and satellite platforms [6]. - The company's ground photovoltaic business remains competitive, with a significant increase in overseas sales, which accounted for 51.87% of total sales in the first half of 2025, up from 23.85% in 2024 [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 9,952 million yuan in 2024 to 7,965 million yuan in 2025, with a subsequent recovery to 10,531 million yuan in 2026 and 12,743 million yuan in 2027 [5]. - The net profit is expected to be -1,312 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 493 million yuan in 2026 and 1,053 million yuan in 2027 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -4.21 yuan in 2025, improving to 1.58 yuan in 2026 and 3.38 yuan in 2027 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be -30.8% in 2025, recovering to 10.1% in 2026 and 17.8% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company has become the controlling shareholder of Shanghai Fuyou Xinghe Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd., holding 60% of its shares, which enhances its capabilities in satellite manufacturing and space energy solutions [6]. - The company is entering the burgeoning low-orbit satellite constellation and space computing industry, aiming to develop cost-effective and efficient energy solutions, potentially replacing current mainstream technologies [6]. - The company is transitioning from a single ground photovoltaic enterprise to a dual-driven strategy of "ground photovoltaic + space business," which is expected to provide significant growth opportunities [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to decline from 9,952 million yuan in 2024 to 7,965 million yuan in 2025, with a subsequent recovery to 10,531 million yuan in 2026 and 12,743 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 32.2% and 21.0% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -1,312 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 493 million yuan in 2026 and 1,053 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround with a growth rate of 113.6% in 2027 [5]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve from 0.0% in 2025 to 10.0% in 2026 and 15.0% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [5].

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a clear upward trend due to supply-side clearing and demand-side support, with expectations of profitability recovery in 2026 as inefficient companies exit the market and leading firms enhance efficiency through technological upgrades [1][14] - In 2025, China's photovoltaic industry saw a significant increase in installed capacity, reaching 315.07 GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.67%, despite a slowdown in the second half of the year [14][16] - The introduction of policies aimed at preventing "involution" in the industry has led to a recovery in prices, with polysilicon prices rising over 50% from June to November 2025, indicating a shift towards a more rational pricing environment [22][29] Group 2: Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry is expected to benefit from a favorable supply-demand structure, with significant growth anticipated in offshore wind projects and exports, particularly in 2025 [1][3] - The domestic wind power market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with offshore wind becoming a key focus area, supported by increasing demand for domestic and international markets [1][3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers in the wind turbine sector and companies involved in high-barrier components such as submarine cables, which are expected to see increased demand [3][3] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector in China is projected to achieve sales of 16.49 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, driven by stable market demand and improved product structures [2][3] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in profitability as supply-side chaos is effectively managed, with significant price increases in key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and vinyl carbonate [2][3] - The transition to a high-quality development phase is expected in 2026, supported by technological innovations and enhanced supply chain capabilities [2][3] Group 4: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability as inefficient production capacity is eliminated, with key materials seeing price increases and demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage continuing to rise [8][8] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the battery and structural components sectors, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [8][8] - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with several companies making significant progress in this area [8][8]