证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 公告编号：2024-061 关于持股 5%以上股东减持股份预披露公告 公司持股 5%以上股东严海雁先生保证向本公司提供的信息内 容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提 供的信息一致。 特别提示： 甘源食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"本公司"） 于近日收到持有公司 5,613,420 股（占剔除回购股份后本公 司总股本比例的 6.13%）的股东严海雁先生（现任公司副董 事长、董事）出具的《关于减持甘源食品股份计划的告知函》， 计划在本公告披露之日起 15 个交易日后的三个月内（2024 年 12 月 2 日-2025 年 2 月 28 日）以集中竞价或大宗交易方 式减持本公司股份不超过 916,099 股（含）（占剔除回购股 份后本公司总股本比例的 1%）。现将有关内容公告如下： 甘源食品股份有限公司 一、股东的基本情况 注：截至本公告披露日，公司回购专用证券账户中的股份数量为 1,605,872 股，减持比 例按公司总股本 93,215,831 股剔除回购专用证券账户中的股份数量后的 91 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The company reported strong Q3 performance with total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.23%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [8] - The growth is driven by the performance of traditional products and the expansion of new channels, including bulk snacks and export markets [8] - Tax incentives have positively impacted the net profit margin, while online marketing expenses have slightly increased due to team expansion [9] - The company is expected to continue its multi-channel strategy, focusing on product innovation and market share growth [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan, with a net profit of 277 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 22.23% and 29.48% respectively [8] - Q3 revenue was 563 million yuan, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.58% and 17.10% [8] Product and Market Strategy - The company has successfully maintained the growth of its core products while expanding its market share in new product categories [8] - The optimization of traditional distribution channels is showing initial positive results, although the supermarket channel is still under pressure [8] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 35.59%, a slight decrease of 0.73 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 17.27%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points [9] - The company has seen a slight rise in sales expenses due to increased online marketing efforts, but management expenses have decreased, indicating improved cost control [9] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 395 million yuan, 487 million yuan, and 594 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 20.10%, 23.12%, and 22.01% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 563 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, with a notable improvement in revenue growth compared to Q2 2024 [2] - The company is actively optimizing its distribution channels, particularly in the snack wholesale sector, which has shown high growth rates. The e-commerce channel is also being enhanced with new product introductions [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, 2025, and 2026, the projected net profits attributable to the parent company are 390 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 560 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 20%, and 18% [2][3] - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 17, 14, and 12 times, respectively [2] - The revenue for 2024 is expected to be 2.257 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.2% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue growth rate improved in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, significantly higher than the 4.9% growth in the second quarter. This improvement is attributed to adjustments in traditional sales channels and the performance of the e-commerce channel [4][5]. - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by new product launches in the e-commerce channel and the ongoing expansion of high-growth channels such as overseas and bulk snack channels [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the third quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 563 million yuan, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.58% and 17.10%, respectively [4][6]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was 36.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel structure [5][6]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 11.4%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased personnel costs from hiring new sales staff [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum into the fourth quarter, with ongoing improvements in both traditional and e-commerce channels [5][6]. - Long-term growth prospects remain strong due to the company's leading position in niche categories and its robust product innovation capabilities [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.25 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 3.25 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 20.5%, and 19.9% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 392 million yuan, 464 million yuan, and 553 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 19.1%, 18.4%, and 19.2% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gan Yuan Food (002991) with a target price of 70.20 RMB [1] Core Views - Gan Yuan Food achieved a revenue of 1.61 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 280 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.5% [2] - The company's product matrix is rich, with traditional products like mixed nuts and peas continuing to dominate consumer preference, while new products such as potato chips and peanuts show strong growth [2] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 36.8%, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by lower raw material prices and improved channel structure [3] - The company is actively adjusting its sales channels, with e-commerce and direct sales showing promising results, and overseas markets, particularly Vietnam, experiencing steady growth [2] Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.3%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, with Q3 net profit margin reaching 19.7% [3] - Gan Yuan Food's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 4.51 RMB, 5.39 RMB, and 6.42 RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16x, 13x, and 11x [1] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 19.53% in 2023 to 23.20% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [4] Channel and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on e-commerce channel development, with a dedicated team in place to optimize product offerings and prepare for the Q4 sales peak [2] - KA (Key Account) channels are transitioning from distributors to direct sales, showing better performance compared to the industry average [2] - Overseas expansion is centered on the Vietnamese market, which has shown consistent growth [2] Cost Management and Hedging - The company has implemented hedging strategies for key raw materials such as peanuts, sugar, and palm oil to mitigate price volatility risks [3] - Sales expenses increased by 1 percentage point year-on-year due to higher personnel costs and increased investment in online marketing channels [3] Future Outlook - Revenue growth is expected to remain strong, with forecasts of 22.51% growth in 2024, 19.86% in 2025, and 19.29% in 2026 [4] - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 420.54 million RMB in 2024 to 598.59 million RMB in 2026, driven by improved operational efficiency and market expansion [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 277 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.10% for the same period [2][4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 563 million yuan, up 15.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 19.66%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product innovation capability and a comprehensive channel strategy, with significant growth potential in the snack wholesale and overseas markets [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.606 billion yuan, up 22.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, up 32.10% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 563 million yuan, up 15.58% year-on-year, and net profit was 111 million yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year [2][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 36.80%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.75 percentage points but an increase of 2.44 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on product innovation, having launched a new product in October 2024, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth. The snack wholesale channel and overseas market expansion are seen as key growth areas [3][4] - The company has optimized its tax rate, resulting in a Q3 income tax rate of 15.48%, down 7.79 percentage points year-on-year, which has positively impacted profit margins [2][4] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.220 billion yuan, 2.652 billion yuan, and 3.080 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 19%, and 16% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 401 million yuan, 472 million yuan, and 542 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 22%, 18%, and 15% [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan in Q1-3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 563 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.58%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, which is a 17.10% increase year-on-year [1] - The company has successfully expanded its sales through various channels, including traditional distribution and e-commerce, and has introduced new products to enhance its market presence [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross profit margin of 36.8% in Q3 2024, a slight decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel structure [1] - The sales expense ratio was 11.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the expansion of the sales team and increased online promotional expenses [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a lower tax rate of 15.5% due to the recognition of the parent company as a high-tech enterprise [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 4.27 yuan, 4.98 yuan, and 5.70 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The revenue is expected to grow from 2.288 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.292 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.9%, 21.5%, and 18.4% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 398 million yuan in 2024 to 532 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 20.9%, 16.6%, and 14.5% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a 15.58% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2024, reaching 563 million yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.10% year-on-year to 111 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.23%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its product range and enhancing its health-oriented innovations to meet changing consumer demands, contributing to sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 gross margin and net margin improved, with gross margin at 36.80% and net margin at 19.66%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.44 percentage points and 3.17 percentage points respectively [1] - The company’s operating expenses, including sales, management, and R&D expenses, have seen slight increases, but the effective tax rate was reduced from 25% to 15% due to high-tech enterprise recognition, leading to a slight improvement in net profit margin [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 2.283 billion yuan, 2.821 billion yuan, and 3.498 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 23.55%, 23.58%, and 24.01% [2] Comparable Company Analysis - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 16.2, 13.5, and 11.4 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [3] - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 22.8 for 2024, suggesting that the company is undervalued relative to its peers [3] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2.004 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.308 billion yuan by 2026, indicating strong growth potential [4] - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 158 million yuan in 2022 to 579 million yuan in 2026, with a consistent upward trend in profitability [5]

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 编号：2024-007 甘源食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------| | | □特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | 投资者 | □媒体采访 | √业绩说明会 | | 关系活 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | 动类别 | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 | | | 参与单 位名称 | 线上参与甘源食品 2024 | 年第三季度业绩说明会的全体投资者 | | 时间 | 2024 年 10 月 25 | 日（星期五） 15:00-16:00 | | 地点 | 价值在线（ | https://www.ir-online.cn/ ）网络互动 | | 公司接 待人员 姓名 | 董事长、总经理、董事 董事会秘书 张婷女士 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 24 日 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 70.67 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.93 / 0.50 总市值/流通市值（亿元）66 / 35 52 周内最高/最低价 90.48 / 47.85 资产负债率(%) 19.6% 市盈率 19.74 第一大股东 严斌生 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -27% -20% -13% -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 29% 36% 2023-10 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 甘源食品 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 甘源食品(002991) 业绩表现超预期，经营拐点已至 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营业总收入/营业收入/ 归母净利润 / 扣 非 净 利润 16.06/16.0 ...