Core Viewpoint - Ganyuan Food's Q1 2025 financial results showed a significant decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to high base effects from the previous year and a contraction in traditional supermarket business [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 504 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.99% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 52.76 million yuan, down 42.21% year-on-year [1]. - The sales net profit margin dropped to 10.47% from around 15% in previous years, with the non-recurring net profit margin falling to 9.09% [4]. Reasons for Performance Decline - Revenue decline was influenced by a significant reduction in low-priced gift box live-streaming during the Spring Festival and a decrease in traditional supermarket business scale [3]. - Increased procurement costs for key raw materials, such as palm oil, led to a gross margin reduction of 1.08% [3]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 4.24 percentage points, and management expense ratio rose by 1.56 percentage points [3]. Market Expansion and New Channels - Ganyuan Food is focusing on expanding into Southeast Asian markets and has initiated a strategy to enhance its export capabilities [4]. - The company has established stable partnerships with various snack retail systems, which include a range of products [5]. - New channels, particularly snack retail stores, are seen as crucial for driving growth, although traditional channels are experiencing a decline [6]. Industry Context - The Chinese snack food market reached a size of 1,124.7 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining rapid growth but facing intense competition [7]. - Competitors like Liuyin Pupu and Three Squirrels have begun price reductions to enhance competitiveness, indicating a challenging market environment [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on profit margins but is expected to benefit from scale effects in the future [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][9] - The report highlights the company's strategies to optimize costs through various measures, including locking in palm oil prices and increasing direct sourcing of key raw materials [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 652 million yuan, a 22% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 14% to 99 million yuan [4] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 504 million yuan, a 14% decrease, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a decline in traditional supermarket business [4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 1 percentage point to 35.14% and 34.32%, respectively, mainly due to rising palm oil costs [5] - Selling expenses increased by 2 percentage points in Q4 2024 and 4 percentage points in Q1 2025, attributed to team expansion and increased marketing expenses [5] Product and Channel Growth - The company’s core products, including green peas, sunflower seeds, and broad beans, showed steady growth, with revenues of 524 million, 302 million, and 277 million yuan, respectively [6] - The comprehensive nut and bean product series generated 705 million yuan in revenue, a 40% increase, driven by product expansion and channel diversification [6] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company reported revenue growth in distribution channels, with sales from distributors and other channels increasing by 23% and 65%, respectively [7] - E-commerce revenue for 2024 was 239 million yuan, an 11% increase, with plans to enhance online collaboration for new product validation [8] Earnings Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.38, 5.13, and 5.89 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 13 times [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company has reached a profit bottom, with active expansion in overseas markets [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376.19 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 42.21% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and emerging channels, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a significant increase in overseas revenue [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.18% and a net profit of 376.19 million yuan, reflecting a 14.32% increase [4][6] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.655 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 17.63% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 4.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.18 [4][6] Product and Market Expansion - The company’s product categories, including mixed nuts and beans, showed strong performance, with significant growth in overseas markets [6] - The overseas revenue reached 83.19 million yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 1761.5% year-on-year [6] - The company has expanded its overseas distributor network to 31, marking a 106.7% increase [6] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 35.46%, a slight decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 34.32%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs [6] - Sales and management expense ratios increased, reflecting higher costs associated with overseas market expansion and promotional activities [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company has reached a profit bottom, and is actively expanding into overseas markets [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376.19 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 42.21% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and emerging channels, particularly in Southeast Asia, which has shown significant growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 2,257 million yuan - 2025E: 2,655 million yuan (17.63% YoY growth) - 2026E: 3,051 million yuan (14.91% YoY growth) - 2027E: 3,492 million yuan (14.46% YoY growth) [4][7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 376.19 million yuan - 2025E: 424.01 million yuan (12.71% YoY growth) - 2026E: 497.60 million yuan (17.36% YoY growth) - 2027E: 571.19 million yuan (14.79% YoY growth) [4][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 4.04 yuan - 2025E: 4.55 yuan - 2026E: 5.34 yuan - 2027E: 6.13 yuan [4][7] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - 2025E: 16.18 - 2026E: 13.79 - 2027E: 12.01 [4][7] Market and Product Insights - The company has seen strong performance in its mixed nuts and bean products, with significant growth in overseas sales, particularly in Southeast Asia [6] - The domestic revenue reached 2.174 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.4% year-on-year, while overseas revenue surged to 83.19 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1761.5% [6] - The company is adjusting its sales strategy to improve margins, particularly in the e-commerce sector, where gross margins have increased [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on profit margins but is expected to benefit from scale effects in the future [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][9] - The report highlights the company's strategies to optimize costs through various measures, including locking in palm oil prices and increasing direct sourcing of key raw materials [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 652 million yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 14% to 99 million yuan [4] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 504 million yuan, a 14% decrease, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a decline in traditional supermarket business [4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 1 percentage point to 35.14% and 34.32%, respectively, mainly due to rising palm oil costs [5] - Selling expenses increased by 2 percentage points in Q4 2024 and 4 percentage points in Q1 2025, attributed to team expansion and increased marketing expenses [5] Product and Channel Growth - The company’s core products, including green peas, sunflower seeds, and broad beans, showed steady growth, with revenues of 524 million, 302 million, and 277 million yuan, respectively [6] - The comprehensive nut and bean product series generated 705 million yuan in revenue, a 40% increase, driven by product expansion and channel diversification [6] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company’s revenue from distribution and other channels reached 1.927 billion yuan and 81 million yuan, respectively, with significant growth in the snack wholesale channel [7] - E-commerce revenue for 2024 was 239 million yuan, an 11% increase, with plans to enhance product offerings and partnerships in 2025 [8] Earnings Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.38, 5.13, and 5.89 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 13 times [9][11]

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 甘源食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-002 投资者 关系活 动类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 √业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 参与单 位名称 线上参与 2024 年度暨 2025 年第一季度业绩说明会的全体投资者 时间 2025 年 4 月 21 日（星期一） 15:00-16:00 地点 价值在线（https://www.ir-online.cn/）网络互动 公司接 待人员 姓名 董事长、总经理、董事 严斌生先生 董事会秘书 张婷女士 财务总监、董事 涂文莉女士 独立董事 汤正梅女士 形式 网络线上 投资者 关系活 动主要 内容介 绍 提问与回答环节 问：请问一下，我们公司目前在海外的业务经营状况，以及未来有没有什么扩 大海外经营的计划？ 答:尊敬的投资者，您好！公司目前以东南亚市场为切入点开拓海外市场。公 司于 2024 年四季度起，陆续在印尼、马来西亚等国家进行了深入的市场调研， 了解目标国家的文化习俗、消费者偏好以及热销零食的情况。为了更好地满足 当地市场需求，由产品经理对海外产品进行本土化 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 21 日 甘源食品 (002991) —— 经营阶段性承压 关注新品及海外拓展 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 73.60 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 95.98/47.54 | | 市净率 | 3.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.45 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 3,657 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,291.43/9,905.53 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 18.96 | | 资产负债率% | 18.86 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 93/50 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-22 05-22 06-22 07-22 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 0 ...

4月21日，甘源食品发布投资者关系活动记录表。当中披露，关于"如何评估原材料波动对公司的影响？"。甘源食品表 示，公司产品品类丰富，单一原材料依赖程度相对较低，公司有密切关注价格波动情况，今年部分原材料已提前启动 战略性储备计划以及供应链替代方案，同时增加主要原材料的直接采购比例，积极应对原材料波动风险。后续也会采 取合理的措施管控原料成本。 针对"2024年海外的销售规模情况以及2025年的规划？"甘源食品回应，因公司海外业务合作模式包括直接出口和经销 商出口两种模式，销售收入情况分别体现在境外地区及其他国内地区的部分收入中，2024年度经销商出口模式的收入 规模大于直接出口模式的收入规模。2025年公司将加快产品出海步伐，进一步开拓东南亚为主的海外市场。公司于 2024年四季度起，陆续在印尼、马来西亚等国家进行了深入的市场调研，了解目标国家的文化习俗、消费者偏好以及 热销零食的情况。为了更好地满足当地市场需求，由产品经理对海外产品进行本土化设计。海外产品将于2025年度逐 步推向各国，以期进一步提高海外销售规模。 谈及"2024年电商毛利率变化的原因？2025年是否有改善？"，甘源食品指出，2024年电商 ...

| 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 20 日│中国内地 | 食品 | 证券研究报告 甘源食品 (002991 CH) 25Q1 经营底部，后续多催化驱动改善 24 年毛利率 35.5%，同比-0.8pct（24Q4 同比-0.9pct 至 35.1%），系量贩等 2B 渠道占比提升、Q4 棕榈油价格上涨所致。24 年销售/管理费率 12.7% /3.7%，同比+1.2pct/持平（24Q4 同比+1.7/+0.5pct），主要系公司销售人员 增加以匹配直营化改革，且 Q4 旺季促销等市场费用有所增加。24 年归母 净利率同比-1.1pct 至 16.7%，此外 Q4 还受到其他收益影响/所得税率低基 数因素影响，净利率同比-6.3pct 至 15.2%。 25Q1 毛利率同比-1.1pct，系 成本上涨/规模效应减弱等因素影响，销售/管理费率同比+4.2/+1.4pct，系代 言人费用计提、人员增加，最终录得归母净利率 10.5%，同比-5.1pct。 改革成果有望逐步体现，维持"买入"评级 24 年营收/归母净利/扣非净利 22.6/3. ...

2024 业绩符合市场预期，1Q25 利润低于市场预期 2025 年在产品、渠道和品牌端持续迭代优化。产品端：公司推出黑金蒜香菜味翡翠豆、竹盐绿蚕豆、 竹盐黑豆及其他创新口味的锅巴、薯条薯片及黑巧坚果等产品，推进产品的创新性和差异化。渠道端： 公司将在零食量贩、海外、商超直营系统和电商渠道持续迭代。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到2025 年棕榈油价格上涨及公司增加对渠道费用的投放，我们下调2025 年归母净利润15.2%约至4 亿元，并新引入2026 年利润4.5 亿元，当前股价对应17.9/15.8 倍2025/26 年P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，考 虑到盈利调整及板块估值近期上涨我们维持目标价92 元/股，对应约21.5/19 倍2025/26 年P/E，较当前股 价有约20.1%的上行空间。 风险 品类竞争加剧，商超渠道改革及海外出口效果不及预期，成本大幅波动。 2024 年收入22.57 亿元，同比+22%；归母净利润3.76 亿元，同比+14.3%，利润基本符合市场预期。 1Q25 收入/利润分别5.04/0.53 亿元，同比-14%/-42%，1Q25 利润表现低于预期，我们估计主要有春节错 期影响收入增 ...