证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 编号：2024-007 甘源食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------| | | □特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | 投资者 | □媒体采访 | √业绩说明会 | | 关系活 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | 动类别 | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 | | | 参与单 位名称 | 线上参与甘源食品 2024 | 年第三季度业绩说明会的全体投资者 | | 时间 | 2024 年 10 月 25 | 日（星期五） 15:00-16:00 | | 地点 | 价值在线（ | https://www.ir-online.cn/ ）网络互动 | | 公司接 待人员 姓名 | 董事长、总经理、董事 董事会秘书 张婷女士 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 24 日 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 70.67 总股本/流通股本（亿股）0.93 / 0.50 总市值/流通市值（亿元）66 / 35 52 周内最高/最低价 90.48 / 47.85 资产负债率(%) 19.6% 市盈率 19.74 第一大股东 严斌生 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -27% -20% -13% -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 29% 36% 2023-10 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 甘源食品 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 甘源食品(002991) 业绩表现超预期，经营拐点已至 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营业总收入/营业收入/ 归母净利润 / 扣 非 净 利润 16.06/16.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ganyuan Food with a target price of 87.80, compared to the last closing price of 70.40 [1][2]. Core Insights - Ganyuan Food's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, and a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has shown strong growth in offline channels, particularly in snack wholesale and overseas markets, with significant progress in transitioning from distribution to direct sales in supermarkets [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 36.8%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in channel structure, while the net profit margin improved significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Ganyuan Food are estimated to grow at rates of 23%, 19%, and 15% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 24%, 20%, and 14% for the same years [3][2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.39 yuan, 5.25 yuan, and 6.00 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16x, 13x, and 12x [3][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in revenue, achieving 1.61 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, up 29.5% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 560 million yuan, growing 15.6% year-on-year, and net profit was 110 million yuan, an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The profit margin slightly exceeded expectations [1][2] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 420 million, 520 million, and 640 million yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 28.7%, 23.3%, and 22.5% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15.5, 12.6, and 10.3 times for the respective years [1][2] Revenue Growth - The company has achieved stable revenue growth, with Q3 2024 revenue increasing by 15.6%. The snack wholesale channel and Southeast Asia expansion have performed well. The recent launch of new products in membership stores and ongoing optimization of e-commerce product offerings are expected to drive future revenue growth [2] Profitability Metrics - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin reached 36.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, primarily due to slight impacts from raw material prices. However, the gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend. The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding expectations [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.3128 billion, 2.884 billion, and 3.5405 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.2%, 24.9%, and 22.6% respectively. The net profit is expected to reach 423.5 million, 522.4 million, and 640.1 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 28.7%, 23.3%, and 22.5% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy-B" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue growth accelerated in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 22.23% in the first three quarters, and net profit growth exceeded expectations [1] - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 reached 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, with net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 36.80%, a slight decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased by 0.25 percentage points to 19.66% due to tax benefits [1] - The company's overseas market expansion and product diversification are expected to drive future growth, with revenue and net profit forecasts adjusted upward for 2024-2026 [1] Revenue Analysis - The company's revenue growth in Q3 2024 improved compared to Q2, driven by effective adjustments in channel structure and personnel [1] - Classic products such as "Lao San Yang" maintained steady growth, while new products like mixed nuts and bean snacks performed well in the market [1] - The snack retail and overseas channels contributed significantly to revenue growth, while traditional KA and BC channels were affected by macroeconomic factors and channel diversion [1] Profit Analysis - The company's gross profit margin declined slightly due to increased online promotions and a higher proportion of low-margin snack retail channels [1] - Sales expenses increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, mainly due to team expansion and increased wages and bonuses [1] - The company's net profit margin improved due to a lower corporate tax rate following its recognition as a high-tech enterprise [1] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024E is forecasted to be 23.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.6% [3] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to reach 390 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4% [3] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 16.8x, lower than the industry average of 20x [1][3] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 19.5% in 2023A to 20.8% in 2024E [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 2.095 billion yuan in 2023A to 2.466 billion yuan in 2024E [4] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase from 258 million yuan in 2023A to 552 million yuan in 2024E [4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 19.6% in 2023A to 24.1% in 2024E [4]

大家上午好欢迎各位投资者朋友参加三元视频公司三季度开告的交流会议我是公司的董事会秘书张婷参加本次交流会议的公司高管还有财务总监图文立女士以及商业投资部总监陈青青女士昨晚公司发布了三季度的业绩报告截止前三季度公司里面收入和淨利润都实现了稳健增长三季度的传统渠道和新拓渠道的发展质量也有了进一步的提升 公司诠释到多品类的战略优势逐步发挥效益下面就先有请公司的财务总监图总来介绍一下公司具体的一个业绩数据情况有请图总好的今天各位投资者上午好欢迎大家光临该院视频24年第三季度的业绩说明会我是公司的财务总监图文立下面由我向大家简要汇报一下公司前三季度的业绩情况首先公司前三季度 1到9月累计实现营业收入16.06亿元较上年同期增长2.92亿元同比增长22.23%实现经济润2.77亿元较上年同期增长6311万元同比增长29.48%实现扩飞后的经济润2.48亿元较上年同期增长32.01%从收入方面来看产品端的增长较好的产品 包括综合豆果综合果仁青豌豆花生花籽仁薯片纯豆等产品从渠道上看增长比较好的渠道主要是经销模式下的临时量化渠道以及出口渠道包括公司直接出口和经销出口的从毛利率来看公司24年的前三季度实现的综合毛利率35.59%同 ...

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 编号：2024-006 甘源食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | □特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | 投资者 | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | 关系活 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | 动类别 | □现场参观 | | | | √其他（电话会议） | | | 参与单 位名称 | 具体参与单位名称见附件 | | | 时间 | 2024 年 10 月 23 日（星期三） | 9:00-10:00 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | | 公司接 待人员 姓名 | 董事会秘书 张婷女士 财务总监、董 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 563 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, growing 17.10% year-on-year [2][6] - The company benefits from tax incentives in advanced manufacturing, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.26 percentage points to 19.66% in Q3 2024, despite a slight decline in gross margin [6] - The company is focusing on a "multi-category + all-channel" business model, enhancing product quality, brand management, and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.267 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.68%, and a net profit of 397 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.54%. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 4.26 yuan [6][8] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a steady improvement, with a projected EBITDA of 574 million yuan for 2024, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.0 [6][8] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2.228 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.841 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.61 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 280 million yuan, up 29.5% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 560 million yuan, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, reflecting a 17.1% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing collaboration with snack wholesale stores and supermarket membership stores, which has contributed to the recovery of high growth in Q3 [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 35.6%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased competition and promotional expenses [2]. - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% or 70% depending on the occurrence of significant investment plans or cash payments [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.2 billion yuan, 2.6 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 16%, and 14% [3][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 390 million yuan, 440 million yuan, and 510 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20%, 12%, and 15% [3][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.333 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.3% [6]. - The company has expanded its product offerings beyond traditional bean products to include flavored nuts and baked snacks, enhancing its market presence [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.80%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit for the same period was 132 million yuan, reflecting a 6.6% increase [6]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 19.66% due to a reduction in the corporate income tax rate to 15% [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 401 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 580 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 24.9%, and 15.7% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.31 yuan, 5.38 yuan, and 6.22 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully completed a multi-category and full-channel layout, actively expanding into new sales channels such as snack wholesale stores, live e-commerce, and high-end membership stores [5]. - The company’s stock price is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15x for 2024, 12x for 2025, and 10x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [5].