Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 16.1 yuan per share [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.08 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30 million yuan for 2024, showing a slight revenue decline of 0.3% year-on-year but a significant net profit increase of 54.4% [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 280 million yuan, with a net profit of 20 million yuan, reflecting a 1.0% decline in revenue but a 1.4% increase in net profit year-on-year [2][4]. - The company continues to optimize its cost structure and accelerate the cultivation of its own brand, with a focus on adult incontinence products, baby care, and pet hygiene products [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 1,079 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%. The net profit is expected to reach 31 million yuan, with a growth rate of 54.4% [4][9]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 6.8% in 2025, reaching 1,152 million yuan, and a net profit of 32 million yuan, with a growth rate of 3.5% [4][9]. - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 20.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved cost structure [8][9]. Product and Market Development - The company has developed a range of new products, including specialized series for institutions and seasonal products, with new product sales expected to approach 40 million yuan in 2024 [8]. - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, the company's own brand adult diapers achieved an online GMV exceeding 70 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% [8]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 32 million yuan in 2025, 51 million yuan in 2026, and 68 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 127, 80, and 60 [8][9].

Market Overview - The adult incontinence products industry in China is at the end of the introduction phase and the beginning of the explosive growth phase, with a penetration rate of approximately 8%-10% [1] - Compared to international markets, where penetration rates reach 60% in Europe and the US, and 80% in Japan, there is significant growth potential in China [1] - The primary user group currently consists of individuals with severe incontinence, but there is untapped potential among those with moderate and mild incontinence [1] Policy Impact - The introduction of long-term care insurance (TOG and TOC) is expected to accelerate market expansion, with a projected penetration rate of 50% within 10 years following nationwide promotion after 2024 [1][2] - Historical data from Japan shows that after the implementation of care insurance, the penetration rate of adult diapers increased from 10% in 1990 to 80% in 2005 [1] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has shifted its sales strategy from relying on distributors and physical stores to focusing on B2B business, targeting hospitals and elderly care institutions, with over 10,000 institutions engaged [2] - Online channels are increasingly important, with a new brand targeting cost-conscious consumers launched on platforms like Pinduoduo, showing promising sales growth [2] - The company is enhancing user engagement through improved service offerings and targeted marketing strategies [2] Pricing and Market Dynamics - The adult diaper market in China is fragmented into four price segments: high-end, mid-high, mid-low, and ultra-low, with the ultra-low segment facing quality issues [3] - Approximately 21 billion low-quality diapers, accounting for nearly 30% of the market, have been identified, indicating a need for regulatory improvements [3] - Price increases are anticipated due to the push for long-term care insurance and stricter market regulations [3] Competitive Landscape - In mature markets like the US and Japan, leading brands hold over 50% market share, while the leading domestic brand in China, Reliable, is positioned to compete internationally [4] - The industry is experiencing a trend towards increased concentration, with local brands expected to replicate the success of overseas leaders [4] Financial Performance and Growth Outlook - The company faces short-term challenges due to demographic shifts, including a declining birth rate and aging population [6] - Cost optimization measures, such as the use of smart factories and alternative raw materials, are being implemented to enhance profitability [6] - Future growth is anticipated from the rollout of long-term care insurance, increased brand recognition, and international expansion [6]

Summary of Conference Call on Reliable Co. and Adult Incontinence Products Market Industry Overview - The adult incontinence products market in China has significant potential, with a current penetration rate below 10%, compared to 60% in Europe and the US, and 80% in Japan. The market is expected to grow to around 50% over the next decade due to aging population and the nationwide promotion of long-term care insurance starting in 2025 [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Long-term Care Insurance Impact**: The introduction of long-term care insurance is a crucial factor for market growth. Japan's experience shows that such insurance can significantly increase market penetration from 10% to 60% over 15 years. China's government plans to implement this insurance nationwide, which is expected to positively impact the adult incontinence products market [2][4][5]. - **Reliable Co.'s Market Position**: Reliable Co. is positioned as a market leader, leveraging brand development and channel strategies, particularly excelling in e-commerce. The company has made strategic adjustments in channel transformation, user operations, and digital marketing, which have shown growth effects in the 2024 annual report [2][6][11]. - **Consumer Behavior**: The market features a separation between users and purchasers, with online channels being significant. Consumers demand high quality, and brand recognition is gradually increasing. Membership user operations can enhance customer loyalty [2][8]. - **Market Pricing Dynamics**: The adult diaper market in China is characterized by chaotic pricing with many low-quality products. The promotion of long-term care insurance and market standardization is expected to phase out low-end products, leading to a shift towards quality and branding [2][12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Strategic Planning**: Reliable Co.'s strategic planning for the next three years includes adapting to post-pandemic consumer behavior, channel transformation towards direct services, user operations to attract new customers, and increased digital marketing efforts [9][10]. - **Competitive Advantage**: Reliable Co. holds a competitive edge in government procurement and long-term care insurance sectors, supported by strategic supply chain investments. The company aims to become the absolute leader in the down-market segment [4][11]. - **Challenges for SMEs**: As the industry standardizes, small and medium enterprises may face challenges due to strict quality regulations, which could lead to market exit for those unable to meet standards [14]. - **International Expansion Plans**: Reliable Co. plans to expand internationally, targeting developed countries for adult incontinence products and developing countries for baby diapers and sanitary pads, leveraging its competitive product quality and flexible manufacturing capabilities [17]. - **Profitability Outlook**: After a period of low profitability due to various factors, the company anticipates significant growth in sales and profits over the next three years, driven by improved operational efficiency and cost control measures [18][19].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% on May 20, with 27 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the beauty and personal care sector, which increased by 2.50% [2] - The defense and military industry and coal sector were the only sectors to decline, with decreases of 0.50% and 0.33% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 1.037 billion yuan across the two markets, with 18 sectors seeing net inflows [2] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow, amounting to 2.673 billion yuan, and it rose by 0.71% [2] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector also performed well, with a daily increase of 1.64% and a net inflow of 1.555 billion yuan [2] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care sector saw a daily increase of 2.50%, with a net inflow of 268 million yuan [3] - Out of 31 stocks in this sector, 24 stocks rose, including 2 that hit the daily limit, while 6 stocks declined [3] - The top three stocks by net inflow were: - Reliable Co., with a net inflow of 115 million yuan and a price increase of 12.14% [3] - Yiyi Co., with a net inflow of 101 million yuan and a price increase of 10.02% [3] - Aimeike, with a net inflow of 78.9 million yuan and a price increase of 3.93% [3] Notable Stocks in Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The following stocks had significant capital flows: - Reliable Co. (12.14% increase, 31.85% turnover, 114.57 million yuan inflow) [4] - Yiyi Co. (10.02% increase, 17.90% turnover, 100.68 million yuan inflow) [4] - Aimeike (3.93% increase, 2.81% turnover, 78.90 million yuan inflow) [4] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net outflows included: - Qingdao King (5.23% decrease, 27.12% turnover, 162.54 million yuan outflow) [4] - Qingsong Co. (1.50% decrease, 24.11% turnover, 54.19 million yuan outflow) [4] - Fulejia (10.77% increase, 16.50% turnover, 20.36 million yuan outflow) [4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue slightly decreased by 0.27%, while net profit increased by 54.44% due to cost control and product structure optimization [6] - The gross profit margin improved by 3.14 percentage points to 20.79% [8] - The company reported a credit impairment loss of 3.1068 million and inventory impairment loss of 12.3583 million in 2024 [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The company achieved an online GMV exceeding 70 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% [1] - In the Shanghai region, sales growth reached 58% through targeted channel management [3] - The company’s offline special channel business revenue grew by 58% in 2024, primarily from hospital surrounding stores and long-term care insurance projects [4] Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The "Absorbent Treasure 2.0" series received positive market feedback, with some items achieving monthly sales exceeding classic models by 50% [2] - The high-absorption composite core technology has been applied in the production of baby and adult diapers, enhancing product differentiation [4] - The company’s investment in smart manufacturing has led to significant improvements in logistics efficiency and production control [2] Group 4: R&D and Future Plans - R&D investments in 2024 focused on high-absorption composite core technology and other patented technologies [3] - The company plans to expand its ODM business, which saw a revenue decline of 21.8% in 2024, by acquiring new domestic and international clients [5] - The company has initiated a cross-border e-commerce strategy, with overseas sales expected to grow significantly [10] Group 5: Corporate Governance and Investor Relations - The management's high compensation is deemed reasonable compared to industry peers, with a commitment to long-term growth in the aging economy sector [6] - The company implemented a cash dividend policy, distributing 99.77% of 2023 net profit and planning to distribute 59.83% of 2024 net profit [11] - A share buyback plan was initiated in 2024, completing the repurchase of 5,435,800 shares, accounting for 2.00% of the total share capital [11]

证券代码：301009 证券简称：可靠股份 公告编号：2025-019 杭州可靠护理用品股份有限公司 关于参加 2025 年浙江辖区上市公司投资者网上集体 接待日暨 2024 年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，杭州可靠护理用品股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）将参加由浙江证监局指导，浙江上市公司协会主办，深圳市全景 网络有限公司承办的"2025年浙江辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日暨2024年 度业绩说明会"，现将相关事项公告如下： 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演"网站 （https://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下载全景路演APP， 参与本次互动交流，活动时间为2025年5月13日（周二）15:00-17:00。届时，公 司董事长、总经理兼董事会秘书（代行）金利伟先生，副总经理兼财务总监李超 楠女士，独立董事肖炜麟先生，保荐代表人庞燎源先生将在线就公司2024年度业 绩、公司治理、发展战略、经营状况、融资计划、股权激励和可持续发展等投资 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 可靠股份（301009） 证券研究报告 自有品牌+ODM 双轮驱动 公司发布年报及一季报 25Q1 公司营收 3 亿同减 1%，归母净利 0.2 亿同增 1.4%，扣非后归母净利 0.2 亿同减 3%。 婴儿产品 4 亿同增 7%，毛利率 21%同增 2pct； 宠物卫生产品 0.7 亿同减 22%，毛利率 22%同增 2pct。 分地区看，境内收入 6.3 亿同增 3%，毛利率 20%同增 4pct； 2024 年营收 11 亿同减 0.3%，归母净利 0.3 亿同增 54%，扣非后归母净利 0.24 亿同增 33%。 24 年公司分产品看， 成人失禁产品收入 5.6 亿同减 1%，毛利率 19.4%同增 3pct； 境外收入 4.5 亿同减 4%，毛利率 22%同增 2pct。 分模式看，自有品牌收入 5 亿同减 0.3%，毛利率 21%同增 4pct； ODM 收入 6 亿同增 1%，毛利率 19%同增 2pct。 自有品牌+ODM 双轮驱动，继续向新市场、新产品、新领域拓展 以产品为本，拓品拓人群：升级吸水巾，大力拓展轻失禁人群和市场。据 国际尿控协会（ICS）的数据显示， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is leveraging both its proprietary brand and ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) model to drive growth, focusing on expanding into new markets, products, and fields [2] - The company is upgrading its product offerings, particularly in the adult incontinence segment, to cater to a broader demographic, including elderly and postpartum women, with a new medical-grade cranberry probiotic absorbent pad set to launch in March 2025 [2] - The company is enhancing its user engagement through various channels, including offline promotions and community projects, to build a valuable user operation system [3] - The financial forecast has been adjusted, projecting revenues of 1.14 billion, 1.22 billion, and 1.35 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.34 billion, 0.37 billion, and 0.42 billion [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 300 million, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 20 million, an increase of 1.4% [1] - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 1.1 billion, a decrease of 0.3%, and net profit of 30 million, an increase of 54% [1] - The breakdown of revenue by product for 2024 shows adult incontinence products at 560 million (down 1%), baby products at 400 million (up 7%), and pet hygiene products at 70 million (down 22%) [1] - The company’s gross margin for adult incontinence products is projected to be 19.4%, baby products at 21%, and pet hygiene products at 22% [1] Market and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on product differentiation and brand strategy for adult incontinence care products, with plans for smart development in high-end products and optimization in mid-to-low-end products [2] - The company aims to educate users about welfare products through targeted marketing and community engagement [3]

Core Insights - The trend of license-out transactions involving Chinese pharmaceutical companies continues into 2025, with over 20 deals reported in Q1 alone, including significant agreements worth over $1 billion [2] - However, there is a concerning "return rate" of 40% for completed license-out transactions from 2020, indicating a growing trend of terminated collaborations [5] - The industry is experiencing a "clearing" phase after a surge in business development (BD) activities, with many companies facing challenges in maintaining partnerships [5][6] Group 1: Business Development Trends - In Q1 2025, notable transactions included Roche's $1 billion deal with Innovent Biologics and Lepu Biopharma's $1.2 billion collaboration with ArriVent [2] - Companies like InnoCare and Baillie Gifford have successfully capitalized on BD opportunities, with InnoCare's license-out deals exceeding $6 billion, contributing to its successful IPO [2] - The overall BD transaction volume is expected to reach new highs in 2025, driven by increased interest from global pharmaceutical companies in Chinese innovative drugs [2] Group 2: Challenges and Terminations - As of April 2025, 25 out of 62 completed license-out transactions from 2020 have been terminated, reflecting a 40% return rate [5] - Recent high-profile disputes include Novo Nordisk's $800 million claim against Henlius for alleged fraud and GAVI's termination of a pre-purchase agreement with Clover Biopharmaceuticals [6] - The primary reasons for these terminations include disappointing clinical data and strategic shifts by the buying companies, leading to increased competition and pressure on Chinese biotech firms [6][8] Group 3: Financial Implications - The milestone achievement rate for Chinese innovative drugs is only 22%, indicating that most companies only receive the initial payment, which typically constitutes 2%-5% of the total deal value [9][11] - The financial impact of terminated collaborations is significant, as companies lose potential milestone payments and face challenges in maintaining market confidence [9][12] - The NewCo model is emerging as a more favorable alternative, allowing for shared risk and deeper collaboration between Chinese firms and multinational corporations [13][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The BD landscape is expected to see an increase in "return" events, as the market matures and companies face heightened scrutiny [15] - Successful future collaborations will require Chinese companies to demonstrate superior clinical data and competitive advantages in the global market [18][19] - The industry must balance the urgency of BD with long-term strategic planning to avoid reliance on potentially volatile partnerships [17][18]

证券代码：301009 证券简称：可靠股份 公告编号：2025-018 （一）股东大会届次：公司2024年度股东大会。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 1、现场会议召开时间：2025年5月30日（星期五）14:00。 2、网络投票时间：通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间 为:2025年5月30日（星期五）上午9:15—9:25，9:30—11:30 和下午13:00—15:00； 通过深交所互联网投票系统投票的具体时间为：2025年5月30日（星期五）上午 9:15至下午15:00期间的任意时间。 （二）股东大会的召集人：公司第五届董事会。 （三）会议召开的合法、合规性：公司于2025年4月24日召开了第五届董事 会第九次会议，审议通过了《关于召开2024年度股东大会通知的议案》。本次股 东大会会议的召开符合有关法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件和公司章程 的相关规定。 （四）会议召开的日期、时间： 根据杭州可靠护理用品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"可靠护理"） 于2025年4月24日召开第五届董事会第九次会议的相关决议，公 ...