[Music] Stocks our strategists feel are poised to deliver positive returns are featured now in their top stock picks of the week. Welcome back to this week's top stock picks for the week of December 15th. My top pick is Crito Technology Group.Credo makes active electrical cables. So if you see the acronym AEC and they're often purple. We're going to get a a look at that as as this uh their homepage rolls by here.Um, and Jensen uses these for Nvidia uh, rack scale architectures. They're copper. Jensen still ...

Core Viewpoint - Adobe Inc. is experiencing challenges due to tightening marketing budgets and shifting enterprise priorities, which cloud its growth outlook as competition from AI-driven platforms intensifies heading into 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Analyst Downgrade and Market Challenges - Keybanc analyst Jackson Ader downgraded Adobe from Sector Weight to Underweight with a price forecast of $310 [1] - The analyst highlights competition from traditional rivals, emerging AI players, and large language model developers as significant challenges for Adobe [2] - A survey indicates a 16-point net decrease in sales and marketing budgets, with 13% of respondents expecting reduced focus on front-office applications, indicating pressure on Adobe [3] Group 2: Financial Projections and Performance - Despite the downgrade, Adobe's FY1 Revenue projection remains at $25.997 billion with an expected growth rate of 9.4%, while FY2 Revenue is forecast to be $28.377 billion, growing at 9.2% [4] - Adobe reported quarterly earnings of $5.50 per share, exceeding the analyst estimate of $5.39, and quarterly revenue of $6.19 billion, beating the Street estimate of $6.11 billion [5] - The company anticipates fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS of $17.90 to $18.10, compared to the $16.56 analyst estimate [5]

Group 1 - Adobe has launched integrations of Photoshop, Express, and Acrobat for ChatGPT users, allowing them to access these tools directly within the chatbot [1][2] - The integration provides Adobe with exposure to over 800 million active users of ChatGPT, enhancing its product visibility [1] - Adobe aims to offer user-friendly features for beginners, with the option to switch to standalone applications for more advanced functionalities [1] Group 2 - Users can utilize Adobe applications in ChatGPT by clicking the "more" menu and inputting commands for image editing or design [2] - Adobe emphasizes that its core generation capabilities are based on its proprietary Firefly models, ensuring commercial usage rights and copyright protection for generated content [2] - OpenAI's integration of third-party applications into ChatGPT is part of a broader strategy to position the platform as a digital service hub [2] Group 3 - The release of OpenAI's GPT-4o has improved image generation capabilities, allowing users to transform photos into artistic styles with natural language commands [3] - The advancements in GPT-4o are expected to lower costs for high-quality image generation in advertising and other applications [3] - The demand for AI-generated images highlights the importance of sufficient computational power to support these applications [3] Group 4 - In the image editing sector, technological differences among products are minimal, with AI driving functional upgrades and user engagement being crucial for adoption [4] - The success of new features relies not only on functionality but also on effective marketing strategies to spark user curiosity and retention [4] Group 5 - The rise of AI is expected to enhance productivity in media applications, benefiting companies that produce quality content and those in digital marketing, e-commerce, and copyright protection [5]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe has experienced a significant decline of approximately 22-23% over the past year, contrasting sharply with the broader technology sector, which has seen an increase of about 19% [1][2]. Company Performance - Adobe's performance is notably weaker compared to the S&P 500 and the software sector, with the latter being buoyed by companies like Palantir and AppLovin, which have risen by 142% and 95% respectively [2][3]. - The stock has broken out from a long-term downward trend, indicating potential for recovery, although it remains under pressure from the broader challenges in the software sector, particularly from AI disruptions [4]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for Adobe are identified at 332 and the absolute low for the year at 311.58, which are critical points to monitor as the stock navigates its current challenges [5]. - Recent price movements show a bounce after earnings, with the stock crossing above several short-term moving averages, suggesting early signs of trend improvement [6]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upward, and a break above the overbought threshold of 70 would be favorable for bullish sentiment [7]. Trading Strategy - Analysts have issued downgrades and cut price targets for Adobe, yet many maintain a hold or buy rating, indicating mixed sentiment in the market [9]. - A suggested trade involves a vertical put option strategy with a maximum profit of 125 and a maximum loss of 375, reflecting a neutral to bullish outlook for the stock [10][11].

Group 1 - Adobe's pre-market stock price declined by 1.6% on December 15 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe Inc. is a leading software company with a significant presence in creative and digital marketing solutions, despite facing challenges in 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - An analyst from UBS set a price target of $487 for Adobe, indicating a potential increase of approximately 36.61% from its current price of $356.50 [2][5] - Adobe's shares have decreased by 21% year-to-date, with the stock currently trading around $350, marking a significant 45% drop from its all-time high of $635 in February 2024 [2][5] - The stock has shown some resilience with a recent post-earnings lift, fluctuating between a low of $349.09 and a high of $362.71 during the day, reflecting a 1.73% increase or $6.07 [3] Group 2: Market Capitalization and Trading Activity - Adobe's market capitalization stands at approximately $149.23 billion, underscoring its significant presence in the tech industry [4][5] - The trading volume for Adobe today is 4,833,904 shares, indicating active investor interest [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Technology – Software & Services, Payments & Fintech in Europe [1][9] Company-Specific Insights Oracle Corporation - **2Q26 Results**: Cloud growth is at the low end of guidance, with increasing pressure on gross and operating margins, which may undermine investor confidence in Oracle's execution capabilities in the growing GPUaaS market. The stock currently lacks a clear catalyst for growth. Price Target and estimates are under review [2][2]. Adobe - **4Q25 Results**: There is a re-acceleration in Digital Media NNARR growth and over 15% growth in Monthly Active Users (MAU) across key products like Acrobat, CC, Express, and Firefly. However, guidance indicates a continued slowdown in overall ARR growth, which may dampen investor enthusiasm. The recommendation remains Equal Weight [3][3]. Microsoft - **M365 Price Increases**: Recent price hikes for M365, driven by new capabilities, are expected to provide a revenue growth uplift of 55-60 basis points and a 1-3% uplift to EPS over the next three years. The recommendation remains Overweight [4][4]. Meta Platforms - **2026 Outlook**: Three catalysts are identified for potential outperformance: revenue revisions, a $155 billion operating expense guide for 2026, and monetization strategies from the Superintelligence team. Price Target set at $750, with a bull case of $1,000 [5][5]. Industry Trends Cyber Risk Management - **Sustainability and Cybersecurity**: Cyber attacks are a significant governance risk, yet sustainability funds are underexposed to cybersecurity. The rapid rollout of AI, increased security spending, and evolving regulations are seen as tailwinds for cybersecurity. Expanding cyber insurance coverage presents further opportunities [6][6]. Additional Insights - **Consumer Health and Retailer Efficiency**: Insights from a consumer conference indicate a healthy consumer outlook for 2026, with expectations of cost efficiencies for retailers through GenAI adoption [7][7]. Forward Guidance and Targets - **General Guidance**: Various companies in the software and fintech sectors have provided forward guidance, indicating a range of revenue growth expectations and margin targets. For instance, Amadeus expects a revenue CAGR of 8.5-11.5% for FY24-26, while SAP anticipates a free cash flow of approximately €8-8.2 billion [14][16]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted significant concerns regarding Oracle's performance, while other companies like Adobe and Microsoft show potential for growth despite some challenges. The rising importance of cybersecurity and consumer health trends are also critical factors influencing the technology sector's outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Adobe has demonstrated solid financial performance despite a 35% decline in stock price over the past year, attributed to concerns about AI disruption [1][10] Financial Performance - Adobe's revenue for fiscal 2025 increased by 10% to $6.19 billion, surpassing previous forecasts [6] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 14% to $5.50, exceeding prior estimates [6] - Digital media revenue grew by 11% to $4.62 billion, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing nearly 12% to $19.2 billion [7] - Revenue in the digital experience segment rose by 9% to $1.52 billion, with subscription revenue climbing by 11% to $1.41 billion [8] Future Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Adobe projects revenue between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion, with total ARR growth of 10.2% [9] - The company forecasts adjusted EPS of $23.30 to $23.50 for fiscal 2026 [9] - For fiscal Q1, revenue is expected to be between $6.25 billion and $6.3 billion, with adjusted EPS forecasted at $5.85 to $5.90 [9] AI Integration and Growth - Adobe has embraced AI through its Firefly model and partnerships with third-party large language models, leading to a threefold increase in generative AI credit consumption [5] - The company is expanding its AI-powered tools, such as Acrobat AI Assistant and GenStudio, which has seen a 25% year-over-year growth in ARR [5][8] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Adobe's stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times fiscal year 2026 estimates, considered reasonable for a SaaS company with strong gross margins [12] - The company is viewed as a solid earnings compounder, and patient investors may find current stock levels attractive for potential future gains [13]

Core Insights - Adobe's stock has experienced a significant decline in 2025, down 21% year-to-date and 45% from its all-time high of $635 in February 2024 [2][3] - The company's Q4 FY2025 results showed revenue of $6.19 billion, a 10% growth, and adjusted EPS of $5.50, which slightly exceeded expectations [4][5] - Despite the positive earnings report, concerns about competition from AI tools and emerging competitors like Figma are impacting investor sentiment [6][7] Financial Performance - Adobe's Q4 FY2025 revenue was $6.19 billion, surpassing sales estimates of $6.11 billion, with a growth rate of 10% [4] - Adjusted EPS increased by 14% to $5.50, beating estimates of $5.40 [4] - Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) ended FY2025 at $25.66 billion, an increase of 11.5%, with expectations of over 10% growth in FY2026 [5] Market Outlook - Adobe's current stock price reflects low growth expectations, which could present long-term upside if the company outperforms these expectations [3] - The rise in stock price following the earnings report indicates a potential market correction, although competition and AI disruption remain significant concerns [3][6] - The belief that AI tools will limit Adobe's long-term growth is prevalent among investors, particularly with competitors growing rapidly [6][7]

Group 1 - Palo Alto Networks is identified as a lagging company this year, but there is significant potential for growth in its security ecosystem [1] - Adobe is experiencing a positive momentum shift, with expectations of a bounce back after a recent decline of almost eight percent [2]