Core Viewpoint - Aflac reported quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.62 per share, but showing an increase from $1.25 per share a year ago, indicating a -3.70% earnings surprise [1] - The company posted revenues of $4.31 billion for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.74%, and up from $3.78 billion year-over-year [2] Earnings Performance - Over the last four quarters, Aflac has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [2] - The company had a significant earnings surprise of 27.06% in the previous quarter, where it reported earnings of $2.16 per share against an expectation of $1.70 [1][2] Stock Performance - Aflac shares have increased by approximately 3.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.7% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Aflac is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.71 on revenues of $4.39 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $7 on revenues of $17.52 billion [7] - The outlook for the industry, particularly the Insurance - Accident and Health sector, is favorable, ranking in the top 11% of over 250 Zacks industries [8] Industry Context - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that investors should monitor these revisions closely [5] - Trupanion, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +220%, with revenues projected at $335.69 million, up 13.5% from the previous year [9][10]

Financial Performance - Aflac Japan's adjusted earnings for Q4 2024 were $747 million, a decrease of 1.1% compared to Q4 2023's $755 million[9]. - Aflac U.S. reported adjusted earnings of $330 million for Q4 2024, reflecting a 9.3% increase from $302 million in Q4 2023[9]. - Total pretax adjusted earnings for the company in Q4 2024 were $1,073 million, a significant increase of 45.2% from $739 million in Q4 2023[9]. - Net earnings for the full year 2024 reached $5,443 million, representing a 16.8% increase from $4,659 million in 2023[9]. - The diluted earnings per share for Q4 2024 was $7.78, up 23.8% from $6.28 in Q4 2023[9]. - Aflac's total adjusted earnings for the full year 2024 were $4,072 million, a 9.1% increase from $3,733 million in 2023[9]. - The effective tax rate for the company in 2024 was 15.2%, compared to 11.5% in 2023[9]. - Net earnings for 2023 were $4,659 million, reflecting a 16.8% increase from $5,443 million projected for 2024[10]. - The company reported a pretax earnings increase of 8.1% to $5,262 million in 2023 from $4,869 million in 2022[10]. - The company anticipates an adjusted EPS of $7.21 for 2024, indicating a projected growth of 15.7%[29]. Revenue and Premiums - Aflac Japan's total revenue for 2024 was $3,494 million, an 8.0% increase from $3,234 million in 2023[9]. - Aflac U.S. total revenue for 2024 was $1,419 million, a decrease of 5.5% from $1,501 million in 2023[9]. - Total net earned premiums decreased by 1.6% to $14,123 million in 2023 from $14,318 million in 2022[10]. - Total revenues for 2023 were $18,701 million, a slight increase of 1.2% from $18,927 million in 2024[10]. - Total net earned premiums for 2023 increased by 2.7% to $5,675 million compared to 2022[54]. - Total annualized premium in force for Aflac U.S. increased by 3.3% to $6,161 million in 2023 compared to $5,967 million in 2022[65]. - New annualized premium sales for Aflac U.S. reached $1,558 million in 2023, reflecting a 5.0% increase from $1,483 million in 2022[65]. - Total net earned premiums for Aflac Japan decreased by 8.2% year-over-year to $8,047 million for 2023, with a forecasted decline of 13.9% to $6,930 million for 2024[72]. Investment Income - Net investment income increased by 17.5% to $3,811 million in 2023 compared to $3,656 million in 2022[10]. - The company experienced a 4.5% increase in net investment income, reaching $5,262 billion in 2023[19]. - Adjusted net investment income rose by 8.6% to $820 million in 2023, with a projected increase of 3.3% to $847 million in 2024[54]. - Adjusted net investment income for 2023 was $44 million, a 212.5% increase from the previous year[91]. Expenses and Claims - Total net benefits and claims decreased by 8.6% to $8,211 million in 2023 from $8,594 million in 2022[10]. - Total benefits and claims, net, decreased by 4.9% to $2,431 million in 2023, with a forecasted increase of 12.1% to $2,726 million in 2024[54]. - Total adjusted expenses for 2023 were $2,691 million, up 4.6% from 2022, with a projected decrease of 3.6% to $2,594 million in 2024[54]. - Total benefits and claims, net for Aflac Japan decreased by 7.6% year-over-year to $5,313 million for 2023, with a projected decline of 18.7% to $4,317 million for 2024[72]. Assets and Equity - The total assets decreased to $126,724 million in 2023 from $131,738 million in 2022[16]. - Shareholders' equity increased to $21,985 million in 2023 from $20,140 million in 2022[16]. - The company reported a total asset value of $21,861 million in 2023, with a slight increase to $21,930 million projected for 2024[56]. - Total shareholders' equity increased to $26,098 million in 2024, up from $21,985 million in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 18.5%[45]. Market and Sales Strategy - The company plans to continue focusing on market expansion and new product development to drive future growth[54]. - Aflac U.S. anticipates a 3.6% increase in total annualized premium in force to $6,383 million in 2024[65]. - The company plans to enhance its product mix, focusing on critical illness and hospital intensive care products to drive future growth[69]. - Aflac Japan's sales force data indicates a strategic focus on enhancing sales in the cancer insurance segment[86]. Currency and Foreign Exchange - The impact of foreign currency on adjusted earnings was a decrease of $0.19 in 2023, highlighting the sensitivity to currency fluctuations[29]. - The yen/dollar exchange rate for 2023 was 141.83, a 7.4% decrease compared to the previous year[89]. - Adjusted earnings per diluted share for 2023 were significantly impacted by foreign currency fluctuations, with a focus on the yen's performance[100]. - The company plans to continue monitoring the impact of foreign currency translation on its financial performance, particularly in relation to its operations in Japan[94].

Core Insights - Aflac Incorporated reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with total revenues increasing to $5.4 billion, a 43.1% rise from $3.8 billion in the same quarter of 2023. Net earnings surged to $1.9 billion, or $3.42 per diluted share, compared to $268 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, a year earlier [1][27]. Financial Performance - Net investment gains in Q4 2024 were $1.0 billion, or $1.86 per diluted share, a significant recovery from net investment losses of $511 million, or $0.87 per diluted share, in Q4 2023. This was driven by net gains on derivatives and foreign currency activities [2]. - Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter were $865 million, reflecting an 18.2% increase from $732 million in Q4 2023. Adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 24.8% to $1.56 [3][34]. - For the full year 2024, total revenues increased by 1.2% to $18.9 billion, with net earnings rising to $5.4 billion, or $9.63 per diluted share, compared to $4.7 billion, or $7.78 per diluted share, in 2023 [6][36]. Shareholder Equity - Shareholders' equity at the end of Q4 2024 was $26.1 billion, or $47.45 per share, up from $22.0 billion, or $38.00 per share, at the end of Q4 2023. The annualized return on average shareholders' equity was 29.9% [5][41]. Aflac Japan Performance - In yen terms, Aflac Japan's net earned premiums for Q4 2024 were ¥257.4 billion, a decrease of 5.4% year-over-year. Adjusted net investment income increased by 3.7% to ¥101.4 billion [8][9]. - For the full year, net earned premiums in yen were ¥1.1 trillion, down 6.9% from the previous year, while adjusted net investment income rose 12.1% to ¥409.9 billion [9]. Aflac U.S. Performance - Aflac U.S. net earned premiums increased by 2.7% to $1.4 billion in Q4 2024, with adjusted net investment income rising 0.9% to $213 million. Total adjusted revenues were up 2.0% to $1.7 billion [14][15]. - For the full year, net earned premiums increased by 2.7% to $5.8 billion, while total new sales decreased by 1.0% to $1.5 billion [16][15]. Capital Management - The board declared a first-quarter dividend of $0.58 per share, payable on March 3, 2025. In Q4 2024, Aflac repurchased $750 million worth of its common shares [19][23]. - The company has maintained a strong commitment to capital management, repurchasing $2.8 billion in shares for the year [23].

Company Overview - Aflac Incorporated is a Fortune 500 company providing financial protection and peace of mind for nearly seven decades to millions of policyholders and customers through its subsidiaries in the U.S. and Japan [3] - In the U.S., Aflac is the No. 1 provider of supplemental health insurance products, while in Japan, Aflac Life Insurance Japan is the leading provider of cancer and medical insurance in terms of policies in force [3] - The company has been recognized as one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for 18 consecutive years and has been included in Fortune's World's Most Admired Companies for 23 years [3] Upcoming Events - Aflac Chairman and CEO Daniel P. Amos will present at the Bank of America Securities 2025 Financial Services Conference on February 12, 2025, at 10:30 a.m. ET [1] - The presentation will be webcast live, and a replay will be available within 24 hours after the conclusion of the live event [2] Corporate Social Responsibility - Aflac became a signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) in 2021 and has been included in the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index for 11 years [3] - Investors can learn more about Aflac's commitment to corporate social responsibility and sustainability at the company's investor relations website [3]

Core Viewpoint - Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 5, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to grow by 30.4% year-over-year to $1.63, while revenue is projected to reach $4.4 billion, reflecting a 17.4% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac's EPS is $1.63, with a downward revision trend observed over the past 60 days [2][3]. - The current estimates for the first and second quarters of the following fiscal year are $1.71 and $7.02, respectively, with slight revisions noted [3]. Revenue and Premiums - Aflac's U.S. segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with net earned premiums estimated at $1.5 billion, indicating a 5.4% increase year-over-year [8][9]. - The total consolidated net earned premiums are projected at $3.4 billion, showing a slight increase from the prior-year quarter [12]. Investment Income - The consensus estimate for adjusted net investment income for Aflac's U.S. segment is $216.9 million, reflecting a 2.8% growth from the previous year [9]. - Total net investment income for Aflac is estimated at $963 million, indicating an 11.3% year-over-year growth [12]. Segment Performance - The Japan segment is anticipated to face challenges, with net earned premiums expected to decline by 3.3% to $1.8 billion due to a decrease in paid-up policies [11]. - Despite the challenges in Japan, strong persistency rates may provide some support to the segment's performance [11]. Expense Management - Improved expense ratios in both segments are expected due to effective expense management, along with benefits from reinsurance agreements that may enhance Aflac's margins [10].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Aflac (AFL) will report quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30.4%, with anticipated revenues of $4.44 billion, an increase of 17.4% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 0.3% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Other income (loss)' to reach $33.22 million, indicating a decrease of 12.6% from the prior-year quarter [4]. - The estimated 'Revenues- Net investment income' is projected at $962.60 million, reflecting an increase of 11.3% year over year [5]. - 'Revenues- Total net earned premiums' is expected to remain unchanged at $3.39 billion year over year [5]. - 'Total adjusted revenues- Corporate and other' is forecasted to reach $236.00 million, showing a significant increase of 210.5% from the previous year [5]. Aflac Japan Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan' is $2.46 billion, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 1.5% [6]. - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Total net earned premiums' is projected at $1.78 billion, reflecting a decline of 3.3% year over year [6]. - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Net investment income' is expected to be $680.63 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.5% [6]. Aflac U.S. Metrics - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac U.S.- Other income' is estimated at $17.50 million, indicating a decrease of 30% from the prior-year quarter [7]. - The 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac Japan' is projected to reach 66.9%, up from 56.2% reported in the same quarter last year [7]. - The average prediction for 'Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac U.S.' is 39.5%, down from 43.4% year over year [8]. - 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac U.S.' is expected to be 46.6%, compared to 44.6% reported in the same quarter last year [8]. Overall Performance - Aflac shares have returned +4.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% change [9].

Aflac and Dagger Internship Program - Aflac and Dagger are continuing their successful internship program, Dagger X Aflac, with four new positions in Art Direction, Copywriting, Design, and Content Creation for summer 2025 [1] - The program offers hands-on agency experience, allowing interns to produce real-world work showcased publicly [1] - The inaugural 2024 program resulted in the production of a national TV ad titled "Duck Dunk," developed by SCAD interns [5] - The "Duck Dunk" ad features celebrity appearances and a hidden Easter egg highlighting Aflac's commitment to equity in sports [6] - Aflac and Dagger will recruit for the 2025 program at SCAD Atlanta on January 21, with applications open until January 26, 2025 [8] Aflac Company Overview - Aflac Incorporated is a Fortune 500 company providing financial protection and supplemental health insurance in the US and Japan [2] - In the US, Aflac is the No 1 provider of supplemental health insurance products [2] - In Japan, Aflac Life Insurance Japan is the leading provider of cancer and medical insurance by policies in force [2] - The company has been recognized as one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for 18 consecutive years and one of Fortune's World's Most Admired Companies for 23 years [2] - Aflac is a signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and has been included in the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index for 11 years [2] Dagger Agency Overview - Dagger is an independent, creatively driven brand-building agency based in Atlanta, Georgia [9] - The agency specializes in brand and content strategy, campaign development, media connections, and storytelling across various formats [3] - Dagger operates with a "media company mindset," prioritizing cultural relevance and steady content flow to help brands thrive [9] - Recent clients include Aflac, American Cancer Society, The Home Depot, and Georgia Aquarium, among others [10]

Core Viewpoint - Aflac Incorporated is heavily reliant on the Japanese market, which limits its long-term growth prospects and current earnings momentum is not impressive, yet it trades at a premium valuation compared to its historical levels [1]. Company Analysis - Aflac's growth prospects are muted due to its significant exposure to Japan [1]. - The company's current earnings momentum is described as unimpressive [1]. - Despite the challenges, Aflac's stock is trading at a premium valuation relative to its historical performance [1].

Financial Results Announcement - Aflac Incorporated will release its fourth quarter 2024 financial results after the market closes on February 5, 2025 [1] - Earnings materials, including the quarterly earnings release and financial supplement, will be available on the company's Investor Relations website [1] Conference Call Details - Aflac will host a conference call on February 6 at 8:00 a.m. (ET) to discuss quarterly results and outlook [2] - The call will feature Aflac's Chairman and CEO Daniel P. Amos, CFO Max Brodén, and President Virgil Miller, along with other executive management members [2] Company Overview - Aflac Incorporated is a Fortune 500 company providing financial protection through subsidiaries in the U.S. and Japan for nearly seven decades [3] - Aflac is the leading provider of supplemental health insurance in the U.S. and the top provider of cancer and medical insurance in Japan [3] - The company has been recognized as one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for 18 consecutive years and has been included in Fortune's World's Most Admired Companies for 23 years [3] - Aflac became a signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment in 2021 and has been part of the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index for 11 years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Aflac Incorporated (AFL) has shown strong stock performance, gaining 16.1% over the past six months, outperforming both the Finance sector and the S&P 500, which gained 12.2% and 9.2% respectively, raising questions about the timing for investors to buy, sell, or hold the stock [1]. Key Drivers - Aflac is actively introducing new products and upgrading existing ones to meet changing customer needs, including a partnership with SKYGEN to enhance dental and vision benefits management, and the launch of Tsumitasu targeting young and middle-aged customers in Japan [3]. - The company is shifting towards digital sales channels, which is expected to support strong profit margins, with the U.S. expense ratio improving by 260 basis points year over year in Q3 [4]. Revenue Growth - Aflac's revenue growth is driven by strong sales in both the U.S. and Japan segments, with sales increasing by 5.5% in the U.S. and 12.3% in Japan year over year in Q3 2024 [11]. - The expansion of product offerings, such as Tsumitasu and upcoming cancer insurance products, is expected to further boost sales and premiums, which are crucial for revenue growth [11]. Financial Position - Aflac has demonstrated a solid financial position, with cash and cash equivalents increasing by 30.2% as of September 30, 2024, and generating $2.4 billion in operating cash flows in the first nine months of 2024 [17]. - The company announced a 16% increase in its first-quarter 2025 dividend to 58 cents per share, reflecting its strong cash flow generation and commitment to shareholder returns [17]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac's 2024 earnings is $7.27 per share, indicating a growth of 16.7% from the previous year, with upward revisions in the past 60 days [18]. Valuation Perspective - Aflac's shares are currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 14.67X, which is higher than the industry's average of 12.88X and the median value of 11.41X, suggesting that the stock may be relatively expensive compared to its peers [19].