Core Insights - The Finance sector's third-quarter 2024 earnings are projected to improve by 10%, with revenues expected to rise by 5.9% [1] - Insurance industry results are anticipated to benefit from better pricing, exposure growth, accelerated digitalization, and favorable interest rates, although catastrophe losses may impact profitability [1][3] Industry Overview - Underwriting results for insurers are likely to improve due to better pricing, increased exposure, solid retention, new business growth, and favorable reserve development [3] - Catastrophe losses, particularly from Hurricane Helene, are expected to affect profitability, with estimated economic losses exceeding $35 billion and insured losses over $12 billion [3] - Global commercial pricing saw a decline for the first time in seven years, while the U.S. experienced a 3% increase in pricing [4] Company Performance Expectations - **Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)**: Expected to benefit from improved pricing and solid retention, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings at $4.81, a decrease of 3% year-over-year [6][7] - **MetLife Inc. (MET)**: Anticipated to see solid performance driven by Group Benefits and international segments, with earnings estimated at $2.16, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-over-year [7] - **Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)**: Projected to achieve significant growth with earnings expected at $1.64, indicating a 613% increase from the previous year [8] - **Willis Towers Watson plc (WTW)**: Expected to benefit from geographic diversification and operational efficiency, with earnings estimated at $2.68, a 19.4% increase year-over-year [9] - **Aflac Inc. (AFL)**: Anticipated to see a decrease in earnings to $41.69, down 8.2% from the previous year, despite product innovations and cost-saving initiatives [10] Market Trends - Increased travel is likely to have driven up auto premiums, although the loss ratio may be negatively impacted by higher repair and medical costs [4] - A stronger mortgage market is expected to favor mortgage insurance premiums, while low unemployment rates may benefit commercial and group insurance [4] - Life insurers are focusing on protection products, which is expected to drive solid sales and improve investment income due to a larger asset base [5]

Core Insights - Aflac (AFL) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.69 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.2% and revenues of $4.6 billion, down 7% from the previous year [1] - Analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate upward by 0.9% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment of initial forecasts [1] Revenue Estimates - 'Revenues- Other income (loss)' is projected to be $36.19 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 23% [2] - 'Revenues- Net investment income' is expected to reach $952.63 million, indicating a decrease of 5.1% year-over-year [2] - 'Revenues- Total net earned premiums' is forecasted at $3.39 billion, reflecting a change of -2.4% from the year-ago quarter [2] Adjusted Revenue Projections - 'Total adjusted revenues- Corporate and other' is estimated at $237.10 million, representing a significant increase of 106.2% from the previous year [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan' is projected to be $2.51 billion, down 5.8% year-over-year [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Total net earned premiums' is expected to be $1.79 billion, indicating a decline of 9.1% [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac Japan- Net investment income' is forecasted at $709.98 million, showing a slight increase of 0.7% [3] - 'Total adjusted revenues- Aflac U.S.- Other income' is anticipated to reach $17.00 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 48.5% [3] Key Metrics - 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac Japan' is expected to be 67.0%, up from 54.8% in the previous year [4] - 'Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac U.S.' is projected at 38.9%, compared to 40.6% last year [4] - 'Tot. Ben. /Premium - Aflac U.S.' is forecasted to be 45.5%, an increase from 35.9% in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Tot. Adj. Expenses/Total Adj. Rev. - Aflac Japan' is expected to be 20.5%, up from 19% in the previous year [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Aflac shares have returned +1.8%, slightly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.4% change [4]

Core Insights - Aflac Incorporated (AFL) has outperformed the industry with a 47.5% share price increase over the past year, compared to the industry's 41.8% growth [1] - The company benefits from strong U.S. sales, strategic growth initiatives, product enhancements, and digital transformation [1][2] - Aflac's earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 indicate growth, with a projected increase of 8.5% and 4.9% respectively [2] Financial Performance - Aflac's return on equity stands at 16.2%, slightly above the industry average of 16.1%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [1] - The company generated $1.1 billion in operating cash flows in the first half of 2024, with cash and cash equivalents increasing by 40.7% from the end of 2023 [3] - Aflac's leverage ratio is 22.2%, which is below the industry average of 22.5%, showcasing a solid financial position [3] Revenue Growth - Net earned premiums in Aflac's U.S. unit rose by 2.7% year over year in the first half of 2024, driven by strong sales and strategic initiatives [2] - The company is focused on introducing new products and enhancing existing offerings to meet evolving customer needs [3] Digital Transformation - Aflac is investing in digital solutions to improve operational efficiency and transition to digital sales channels, which is expected to support healthy profit margins [3]

Group 1 - Aflac has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, averaging a 10.08% beat over the last two quarters [1] - In the most recent quarter, Aflac reported earnings of $1.83 per share, exceeding the expected $1.59 per share by 15.09% [1] - The previous quarter also saw Aflac beat estimates, reporting $1.66 per share against an expectation of $1.58 per share, a surprise of 5.06% [1] Group 2 - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Aflac, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP indicating a strong potential for an earnings beat [2] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [2] - Aflac currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.06%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [3] Group 3 - The next earnings report for Aflac is expected to be released on October 30, 2024 [3] - A negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, as many companies can still beat consensus estimates [4] - It is important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to improve the odds of success [4]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Accident and Health Insurance industry is expected to benefit from increased underwriting exposure, with companies like Aflac Incorporated, Unum Group, and Trupanion likely to be driven by prudent underwriting standards [1] - The global worker's compensation insurance market is projected to grow significantly between 2024 and 2032, driven by rising awareness of the benefits of coverage [2] Trends Impacting the Industry - Pricing pressure is anticipated to continue due to inflation and rising medical costs, with a projected 5.3% CAGR in workers' compensation insurance pricing from 2022 to 2026 [3] - Claims frequency is expected to improve as safety measures and working conditions enhance, potentially leading to lower claims costs and increased productivity [4] - The adoption of technology, including artificial intelligence, is accelerating in the industry, which could reduce workers' compensation claim expenses by approximately 45% [5] Industry Performance - The Zacks Accident and Health Insurance industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 103, placing it in the top 41% of 251 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [6] - The industry's earnings estimate for the current year has increased by 8% over the past year, reflecting growing analyst confidence in earnings growth potential [7] - The industry has outperformed the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a year-to-date gain of 33.6% compared to 15.8% and 21% respectively [8] Current Valuation - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.93X, lower than the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 3.83X and the sector's 8.77X [9] Company Highlights - **Aflac**: This company offers voluntary supplemental health and life insurance products, with a focus on digital solutions and strategic growth investments. It has a Zacks Rank of 2 and has seen a year-to-date stock gain of 36.8% [11][12] - **Unum Group**: This insurer provides long-term care and group benefits, with expected sales growth of 5-10% in 2024. It has a Zacks Rank of 3 and a year-to-date stock gain of 30.2% [13][14] - **Trupanion**: Focused on pet insurance, this company operates in a large but underpenetrated market, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and a year-to-date stock gain of 35% [16][17]

Company Performance - Aflac (AFL) has returned 36.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Finance sector average return of 17.1% [2] - BGC Group (BGC) has also shown strong performance with a return of 33.2% since the beginning of the year [2] - Aflac holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook [1][2] Industry Analysis - Aflac is part of the Insurance - Accident and Health industry, which has an average return of 34.7% year-to-date, indicating Aflac's strong performance within its industry [3] - BGC Group operates in the Financial - Investment Bank industry, which has returned 17.4% since the beginning of the year [3] - The Finance group ranks 4 within the Zacks Sector Rank, with Aflac being one of 871 companies in this sector [1]

Core Points - Aflac Incorporated will release its third quarter 2024 financial results after market close on October 30, 2024 [1] - A conference call to discuss the quarterly results and outlook is scheduled for 8:00 a.m. (ET) on October 31, 2024 [2] - Aflac is a leading provider of supplemental health insurance in the U.S. and cancer and medical insurance in Japan, with a strong commitment to corporate social responsibility and sustainability [3] Financial Results Announcement - Aflac will provide earnings materials, including a quarterly earnings release and financial supplement, on its Investor Relations website [1] - The financial update video will feature Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Max Brodén [1] Conference Call Details - The conference call will include discussions led by Chairman and CEO Daniel P. Amos and CFO Max Brodén, along with other executive management members from the U.S. and Japan [2] - Registration for the conference call is required five to seven minutes prior to the start time [2] Company Overview - Aflac has been providing financial protection for over 68 years and is recognized as the No. 1 provider of supplemental health insurance products in the U.S. [3] - In Japan, Aflac Life Insurance Japan is the leading provider of cancer and medical insurance based on policies in force [3] - The company has received numerous accolades for its ethical practices and sustainability efforts, including being listed in the World's Most Ethical Companies for 18 consecutive years [3]

Core Insights - Nearly 75% of American workers experience stress and anxiety when covering for coworkers on paid or extended leave, highlighting the significant impact of employee absences on those remaining at work [1][2] - About 50% of workers report experiencing burnout when covering for employees whose leave extends beyond nine weeks, indicating a correlation between prolonged absences and employee well-being [1][2] Group 1: Employee Impact - 73% of workers reported experiencing stress and anxiety while covering for a coworker [2] - 42% of workers experienced burnout when covering for a coworker whose leave period extended beyond nine weeks [2] - The studies indicate that employee perspectives on work-life balance and mental health have shifted post-pandemic, necessitating a reevaluation of workplace environments [3] Group 2: Employer Response - 48% of employers have observed an increase in employee leaves over the past year [2] - 94% of employers have taken action to support employees covering for coworkers on leave, yet only 74% of employees feel that their employers have provided any support [2] - Effective communication and recognition are essential for employers to support employees maintaining business continuity during coworker absences [2][3] Group 3: Industry Trends - The coordinated studies by Aflac and Prudential aim to foster dialogue on managing work and time away effectively as more states and employers adopt paid leave as a benefit [3] - The findings suggest that as paid leave becomes more common, understanding its impact on workforce bandwidth, costs, and productivity is crucial for employers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Aflac (AFL) has received a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) upgrade, indicating a positive outlook on its earnings potential, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - Aflac is projected to earn $6.75 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 8.4% [5]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac has risen by 4.6%, indicating a trend of increasing earnings estimates [5]. Impact of Institutional Investors - Changes in earnings estimates are closely correlated with stock price movements, largely due to institutional investors who adjust their valuations based on these estimates [3]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations for stocks, prompting institutional buying or selling, which drives stock price changes [3]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [4]. - Aflac's upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [7].

Core Points - Aflac is renewing its commitment to support families facing pediatric cancer and blood disorders through its Bridge to Brighter program during Childhood Cancer and Sickle Cell Awareness Month [1][3] - Since 1995, Aflac has raised nearly $184 million for pediatric cancer and blood disorder initiatives, with significant contributions from its employees and independent sales force [1][4] - Aflac's philanthropic efforts include support for the Aflac Cancer and Blood Disorders Center of Children's Hospital of Atlanta, recognized as one of the top pediatric oncology programs in the U.S. [1][3] Company Initiatives - Aflac launched new resources for Childhood Cancer and Sickle Cell Awareness Month, including a dedicated webpage and various support materials [2][3] - The company provides a comforting robotic companion, My Special Aflac Duck, free of charge for children aged 3 and up diagnosed with cancer or sickle cell disease [3][4] - Aflac is offering $15,000 in grants to fund Child Life Specialist programs across the country to support the psychosocial needs of pediatric patients and their siblings [4] Community Engagement - Aflac's resources include a digital toolkit for community support, social media materials, and inspiring messages from notable sports figures [3] - The company encourages donations to support the Aflac Cancer Campaign and its initiatives [3][4] - Aflac's commitment to corporate social responsibility is highlighted by its recognition in various ethical and sustainability indices [5][6]