智通财经APP获悉，巴克莱银行指出，近几个月美元的相对强势表明，即便面临经济疲软风险及美联储 独立性受挑战的压力，支撑美元的基本面依然稳固。 首先，策略师认为，美元的实际价值低于当前即期汇率所反映的水平。关税通过扭曲贸易条件、使其向 实施国倾斜，会人为压低该国货币汇率 —— 然而，与巴克莱(及几乎所有华尔街机构)年初的预期相 反，美元并未通过升值来抵消这一影响。该机构认为，若计入美国关税因素，欧元对美元汇率实际应接 近 1 欧元兑 1.30 美元，远高于目前约 1 欧元兑 1.1670 美元的水平。 彭博美元指数今年下半年以来已上涨约 1.5%。周四该指数连续第二个交易日走高，在周度初请失业金 人数低于预期的数据公布后，触及近三周以来的最高水平。 以塞米斯托克利斯・菲奥塔基斯(Themistoklis Fiotakis)和莱夫泰里斯・法尔马基斯(Lefteris Farmakis)为 首的巴克莱外汇策略师表示，尽管遭遇 "非常规看空事件"，这一全球储备货币仍保持稳定。支撑美元 的因素包括：美元的相对估值优势，以及全球投资者在寻求外汇对冲多元化时，缺乏可替代的币种选 择。 策略师在周四发布的报告中称："继 2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Australian pension funds are expected to significantly expand their foreign exchange hedging scale in the long term, while predictions about the decline of the US dollar are considered premature [1] - The cost of hedging foreign exchange risks for Australian investors has not changed significantly recently, and the implied volatility of the AUD/USD exchange rate remains lower than that of the US stock market [1] - There is currently no evidence indicating that international investors are significantly reducing their holdings of US assets, suggesting that predictions about the demise of the US dollar and the end of Australia's hedging model may be premature [1] Group 2 - It is encouraging that so-called superannuation funds are still enhancing their ability to manage foreign exchange and liquidity risks [1] - Even though the average hedging ratio of superannuation funds has not changed much in the short term, the overall market's foreign exchange hedging scale is expected to grow significantly over the longer term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bearish trend of the US dollar, highlighting that despite a recent stabilization, many market participants anticipate further depreciation due to various economic pressures and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Current Dollar Performance - The ICE Dollar Index experienced a nearly 11% decline in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop since 1973 [2]. - Recent data shows a significant reduction in speculative net short positions on the dollar, dropping from approximately $21 billion at the end of June to $5.7 billion [2]. - Market participants remain skeptical about a trend reversal, citing concerns over the US fiscal and trade deficits, a weak job market, and a reassessment of currency hedging strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - Persistent negative factors affecting the dollar include a reevaluation of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, trade protectionism concerns, and ongoing dual deficits [4][5]. - Weak US employment data has created room for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could diminish the dollar's interest rate advantage [5]. - The current pricing in the interest rate market suggests that the Fed may continue to lower rates through the end of the year, reinforcing bearish sentiment towards the dollar [5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Hedging Strategies - Foreign holdings of US assets amount to trillions, and any reduction in risk exposure could further pressure the dollar, although large-scale sell-offs have not yet occurred [6][7]. - Asset management companies are accelerating their hedging strategies in response to the dollar's weak performance, with more participants expected to join in the next three to six months [8]. - Hedging operations typically involve selling dollars through forward contracts or swaps, which could suppress the dollar's real-time exchange rate [9]. Group 4: Government Stance on Dollar Valuation - Industry experts suggest that the US government may not actively support a strong dollar, as its "America First" agenda conflicts with a strong dollar strategy [11]. - The dollar index is projected to fluctuate between 95 and 100 in the short term, with expectations of a further 5% to 7% depreciation against major non-US currencies over the next year [11]. - Current dollar levels are viewed as neutral, with analysts indicating that the dollar still has more room for decline in the ongoing bear market [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that UK companies are increasing their foreign exchange market hedging due to the significant appreciation of the pound and the weakening of the dollar, which has negatively impacted their profits [1][4] - According to a survey by MillTech, over half of UK companies reported that their earnings were adversely affected by foreign exchange fluctuations in the second quarter of this year, with their currency hedging ratio rising to approximately 53%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] - The pound has appreciated nearly 10% against the dollar in the first half of 2025, marking the largest increase for that period since 2009, which has pressured local exporters' profits and sales, particularly in the US market [1] Group 2 - The survey conducted by MillTech involved 250 UK and US companies, revealing that 18% of UK firms consider the Bank of England's monetary policy as the most significant factor affecting their currency hedging strategies, up from less than 10% a year ago [5] - British American Tobacco PLC, one of the largest exporters in the UK, expects a negative impact of 1% to 1.5% on its revenue this year due to foreign exchange headwinds, with the weakening dollar contributing approximately 50% to this adverse effect [4] - Unilever PLC reported a 5.1% negative impact from currency fluctuations, primarily due to the euro's strength against the dollar, complicating the situation for UK companies [4]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce the cost of currency hedging for international investors, ensuring their dollar-denominated asset returns are protected from currency depreciation [2][5] - International investors, particularly foreign life insurance companies, have significantly reduced their currency hedging ratios, with some cutting their hedging from 90% to 45% [2][3] - The flattening yield curve in the U.S. means that the interest rate differential, which motivates foreign life insurance companies to invest in U.S. bonds, is being eroded by high hedging costs [3][5] Group 2 - The Trump administration's public support for a weaker dollar has forced international investors to close their risk exposures in dollar assets [4] - The challenge for the U.S. Treasury is to attract buyers for long-term U.S. bonds, especially as Japan's government bonds now offer higher yields compared to U.S. bonds [5] - Lowering the federal funds rate could narrow the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, making hedging cheaper and potentially attracting international buyers back to U.S. long-term assets [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mismatch between short-term foreign exchange hedging and the long-term narrative of de-dollarization, suggesting that while there is a strong belief in a weak dollar, it may overlook potential reversal opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Capital and Dollar Hedging - Since the second quarter, there has been a strong consensus that actions like Trump's tariffs and interference with the Federal Reserve's independence have impacted the credibility of the dollar, leading to non-U.S. capital fleeing dollar-denominated assets [3][4]. - A recent BIS report questions whether non-U.S. investors are truly abandoning dollar assets, suggesting they may be more focused on currency hedging rather than divesting from dollar securities [4][6]. - Data from CFTC indicates a significant increase in short positions on the dollar index by asset management companies, reflecting a rising demand for hedging against currency risk [6][8]. Group 2: Market Indicators and Trends - The risk reversal options market shows that investors are increasingly hedging against the risk of a dollar decline, with a notable rise in demand for euro-dollar call options [10][12]. - The cross-currency basis for Asian currencies and euros relative to the dollar has decreased, indicating that the cost of hedging dollar risk has become more expensive due to strong demand [12][15]. - Despite the potential for non-U.S. and alternative assets to mitigate risks associated with the dollar, the substantial positions held by foreign investors in dollar assets make a quick shift challenging [15][18]. Group 3: Potential Reversal Opportunities for the Dollar - The article identifies several potential catalysts for a dollar rebound, including a reduction in hedging demand as observed in the options market [18][22]. - The dollar index is approaching long-term support levels, and the U.S. productivity advantage may provide a basis for a rebound if market sentiment shifts [22][25]. - Political factors, such as Trump's focus on revitalizing U.S. manufacturing, may also influence the dollar's status, as a weak dollar is not necessarily aligned with his long-term goals [25][26]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Independence - The article discusses the complex implications of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by Trump's pressure, which could lead to varied outcomes for the dollar depending on economic data [27][28]. - Four scenarios are outlined regarding the interaction between U.S. economic data, Trump's influence on the Fed, and the resulting impact on the dollar's value [28][29]. - The influence of the debt ceiling on dollar liquidity is deemed limited, with current market conditions suggesting a more stable dollar environment despite potential increases in Treasury supply [31][33].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional safe-haven status of the US dollar is facing significant challenges this year, with a notable weakening of its risk-hedging properties, prompting global investors to rethink their foreign exchange hedging strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Weakening Safe-Haven Status - The dollar has frequently depreciated during US stock market pullbacks this year, with the probability of simultaneous declines in stocks and the dollar rising from a historical average of 16% to 33% [2]. - The simultaneous decline of stocks, US Treasuries, and the dollar has become more frequent, indicating a decrease in the overall attractiveness of US assets [2]. Group 2: Factors Limiting Dollar Recovery - High policy uncertainty, including issues related to tariff policies and Federal Reserve independence, is a primary reason for the dollar's inability to quickly regain its traditional safe-haven status [3]. - The trend of capital diversification and a narrowing advantage in US returns further supports the rationale for portfolio diversification away from the dollar [3]. - Concerns over fiscal stability may resurface, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop of "widening spreads leading to dollar depreciation," exacerbating fears of capital outflows and Treasury sell-offs [3]. Group 3: Adjustments in Foreign Exchange Hedging Strategies - Goldman Sachs' quantitative analysis indicates a significant change in the effectiveness of foreign exchange hedging strategies, with foreign investors achieving higher average returns on hedged US stocks compared to unhedged strategies over the past six months [4]. - European investors have seen the most substantial benefits from hedging strategies, while Canadian investors have also experienced improved results [4]. - Despite the benefits, hedging costs remain a limiting factor for some investors, although a potential Fed rate cut may encourage adjustments from investors in regions with lower domestic rates, such as Japan [4]. Group 4: Potential for Continued Dollar Depreciation - While Goldman Sachs does not foresee a permanent shift in the dollar's safe-haven appeal, the current environment resembles a mild depreciation similar to 2017 rather than a historical crash [5]. - The increasing pathways leading to dollar weakness and the rising likelihood of atypical correlations suggest a risk of more significant and prolonged depreciation than currently anticipated [5]. - A potential cycle of "capital flight leading to dollar decline leading to further capital flight" could result in a more substantial and longer-lasting depreciation than expected [5].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is injecting $10 billion into its overseas subsidiary to hedge against currency risks, marking its largest capital operation to date aimed at reducing foreign exchange hedging costs and enhancing capital flexibility in managing currency risks [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Injection Details - TSMC Global Ltd. has approved a plan to issue new shares worth $10 billion to its parent company, aimed at increasing capital to lower foreign exchange hedging costs [1]. - This capital injection is primarily for general investments, including bank deposits and bonds, and is intended to transfer TSMC's foreign exchange holdings to its subsidiary [3]. - This marks TSMC's third similar operation since 2024, with the scale significantly exceeding previous injections, all occurring during periods of New Taiwan Dollar appreciation [3]. Group 2: Currency Risk Management - The capital injection will provide TSMC Global with greater capital flexibility to manage currency risks, particularly in light of the recent strengthening of the New Taiwan Dollar [3]. - The strengthening of the New Taiwan Dollar has raised concerns about the export-oriented economy of Taiwan, impacting TSMC's operating profit margins by several percentage points [2][7]. - TSMC's CEO has indicated that the strong local currency has directly affected the company's commercial performance, highlighting the impact of currency fluctuations on profitability [7]. Group 3: Market Context - The New Taiwan Dollar has recently shown strong performance, with significant fluctuations leading to increased hedging costs, reaching the highest implied volatility levels since 2011 [4]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar negatively affects Taiwanese exporters, as it reduces the amount of local currency received from overseas sales or necessitates higher prices abroad, risking demand decline [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar in the first half of 2025, highlighting its worst performance in decades, driven by various factors including geopolitical uncertainties and changing investor behaviors [2][4]. Group 1: Dollar Decline - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped over 8% this year, marking the worst start to a year on record, while the ICE Dollar Index has seen a decline of approximately 9%, potentially the worst performance since 1986 [2]. - Richard Chambers from Goldman Sachs anticipates that the dollar's weakness will continue as foreign investors increase their currency hedging [4][5]. Group 2: Foreign Demand and Investment Trends - Analysts suggest that the significant drop in the dollar index is largely due to uncertainties stemming from US policies, particularly those of President Trump, which have shaken investor confidence [6]. - Although there are no clear signs of a mass withdrawal from the US bond market by foreign investors, Chambers predicts a decrease in foreign demand, particularly as European investors may prefer to invest domestically [6][7]. Group 3: Currency Swap Indicators - A recent indicator in the foreign exchange market, the cross-currency basis swap, has shown a notable shift, signaling a decrease in demand for the dollar [8][11]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have observed that the willingness of investors to purchase dollar-denominated assets is declining, while interest in euro and yen-denominated assets is increasing [11][12].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen over 8% year-to-date, while the ICE Dollar Index has seen a decline approaching 9%, marking the worst start in nearly 40 years [1] - Changes in interest rates are identified as the catalyst for the dollar's decline, with market expectations leaning towards a loosening cycle before 2026 despite the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining higher rates for longer [3] - The increase in foreign exchange hedging ratios indicates that the future trajectory of the dollar will rely more on fundamentals rather than mere capital flows [4] Group 2 - Investors are shifting from traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar to derivatives for currency hedging, which has led to additional selling pressure on the dollar during settlement [3] - The potential for the dollar to further decline to the 101-102 index range exists if core inflation continues to fall and the Federal Reserve shifts its stance [4] - The focus for investors should transition from directional bets on the dollar to managing volatility, as the primary variables influencing dollar fluctuations have shifted from unilateral interest rate differentials to multidimensional risk pricing [4]