Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $16.5 billion, a 7.8% increase from the prior year[6] - Net income applicable to common shareholders was $566 million, down 52.4% from $1.2 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to elevated catastrophe losses[6] - Adjusted net income was $949 million, or $3.53 per diluted share, compared to $1.4 billion in the prior year quarter[6] - Adjusted net income for the first quarter was $949 million, down from $1,367 million in the prior year quarter, reflecting a decrease in net income applicable to common shareholders from $1,189 million to $566 million[32] - Adjusted net income for the twelve months ended March 2025 was $4,488 million, compared to $1,960 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a significant increase[36] Insurance Premiums and Policies - Property-Liability earned premiums increased by 8.7% to $14.0 billion, driven by higher average premiums[8] - Total policies in force grew by 6.7% to 210.6 million, reflecting strong demand for insurance products[7] - Premiums and contract charges for health and benefits increased by 1.9%, or $9 million, compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to growth in Individual Health and Group Health[23] - Total revenues for the first quarter increased to $16,452 million, up from $15,259 million in the prior year quarter, with property and casualty insurance premiums rising to $14,698 million[28] Catastrophe Losses - Catastrophe losses for the quarter were $2.2 billion, significantly higher than $731 million in the prior year[7] - The recorded homeowners insurance combined ratio was 112.3, 30.2 points higher than the prior year, reflecting increased catastrophe losses[16] - The effect of catastrophe losses on the combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment was (15.7) for the three months ended March 2025, compared to (5.7) in 2024[39] Investment Income - Net investment income for Q1 2025 was $854 million, up $90 million from the prior year due to portfolio growth[22] - Market-based investment income rose to $719 million, an increase of $93 million, or 14.9%, compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher yields in the $63.5 billion market-based portfolio[24] - Net losses on investments and derivatives were $349 million in the first quarter, compared to losses of $164 million in the prior year quarter, primarily due to losses on fixed income securities and equity investments[24] - The total return on the investment portfolio was 1.4% for the first quarter of 2025 and 4.7% for the latest twelve months[24] Business Transactions - The sale of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business closed on April 1, 2025, generating a financial book gain of approximately $625 million[20] - The completion of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business sale and the agreement to sell the Group Health business are expected to enhance growth opportunities and create value for shareholders[25] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase program and a quarterly dividend increase to $1.00 per common share[25] - Return on Allstate common shareholders' equity for the twelve months ended March 2025 was 21.4%, up from 7.6% in 2024[36] - The adjusted net income return on Allstate common shareholders' equity for the twelve months ended March 2025 was 23.7%, up from 11.3% in 2024[36] Assets and Reserves - Total assets increased to $115,161 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $111,617 million at the end of the prior year[27] - The reserve for property and casualty insurance claims and claims expense rose to $43,835 million, up from $41,917 million in the prior year[27] Combined Ratios - The underlying combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment for the three months ended March 2025 was 83.1%, an improvement from 86.9% in 2024[39] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Auto Insurance for the three months ended March 2025 was 91.3%, down from 96.0% in 2024[40] - The combined ratio for Allstate Protection - Homeowners Insurance for the three months ended March 2025 was 112.3%, compared to 82.1% in 2024, indicating a significant increase[41] - The effect of prior year non-catastrophe reserve reestimates on the combined ratio for the Property-Liability segment was 1.7 for the three months ended March 2025, compared to (0.1) in 2024[39]

Core Viewpoint - The Allstate Corporation is expected to report a significant decline in earnings for Q1 2025, with a consensus estimate of $2.27 per share, reflecting a 55.8% year-over-year decrease, despite an anticipated revenue increase of 11% to $17.13 billion [1][2]. Financial Performance Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate's total revenues in 2025 is $69.45 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 7.95%, while the EPS estimate for 2025 is $16.75, suggesting an 8.6% decline year-over-year [2]. - The first-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by 37.3% over the past 60 days [1]. Earnings Surprises and Predictions - Allstate has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, achieving an average surprise of 127.1% over the last four quarters [2]. - The current Earnings ESP for Allstate is 0.00%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3]. Key Business Segments - The net premiums earned are projected to grow by 11.4% year-over-year, while net investment income is expected to increase by 7.5% from $764 million [5]. - Adjusted net income from the Protection Services business is estimated to grow by 19.6% year-over-year [6]. - Underwriting income from the Auto brand is expected to reach $525.5 million, up from $351 million a year ago, with an improved combined ratio of 94.64% compared to 96% in the previous year [7]. - The underwriting loss from Commercial Lines is projected to decrease to $29 million from $70 million a year ago [8]. Cost and Expense Outlook - Total costs and expenses are anticipated to rise by more than 12% year-over-year due to increased operating costs and claims expenses, which may offset some positive growth indicators [8].

Core Viewpoint - Allstate (ALL) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.12 per share, reflecting a significant decline of 58.7% year over year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 11% to $17.13 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.1% higher in the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reevaluation of their initial estimates [1][2] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Property-Liability- Net Premiums Earned' at $14.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.8% [4] - 'Property-Liability- Net Investment Income' is expected to be $742.13 million, up 5.7% from the previous year [4] - 'Property-Liability- Other Revenue' is forecasted to reach $485.47 million, indicating a 12.9% increase year over year [4] - 'Allstate Health and Benefits- Other Revenue' is estimated at $132.46 million, reflecting a slight decline of 1.2% [5] Key Ratios - The 'Combined Ratio - Property-liability' is projected at 97.6%, up from 93% in the same quarter last year [5] - The 'Loss Ratio - Property-liability' is expected to be 74.8%, compared to 72.4% in the previous year [6] - The 'Expense Ratio - Property-liability' is estimated at 22.5%, an increase from 20.6% year over year [6] - The 'Expense Ratio - Homeowners' is projected at 22.2%, compared to 21.8% last year [7] - The 'Loss Ratio - Auto' is expected to be 71.1%, down from 75.4% in the previous year [7] - The 'Combined Ratio - Homeowners' is forecasted at 106.8%, significantly higher than 82.1% reported last year [7] - The 'Combined Ratio - Auto' is projected at 94.3%, down from 96% in the same quarter last year [8] - The 'Loss Ratio - Homeowners' is expected to reach 84.6%, compared to 60.3% in the previous year [8] Stock Performance - Allstate shares have decreased by 6.9% over the past month, compared to a 4.8% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8]

Company Performance - Allstate's stock closed at $194.86, with a slight increase of +0.07% from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 2.03% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate's shares have decreased by 6.95%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 lost 3.37% and 5.07% respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Allstate's earnings report is scheduled for April 30, 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $2.12, indicating a significant decrease of 58.67% from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $17.13 billion, reflecting an increase of 11.04% compared to the previous year [2] Full-Year Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Allstate's full-year earnings are $16.65 per share and revenue of $69.38 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -9.12% and +7.85% respectively [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Allstate are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, currently ranks Allstate as 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Allstate's Forward P/E ratio stands at 11.69, slightly below the industry average of 11.74, suggesting it is trading at a discount [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.17, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.24, indicating a more favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [8] Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 34, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [9]

Group 1 - Allstate's stock closed at $194.73, with a slight increase of +0.43% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.67% [1] - Over the past month, Allstate's shares have decreased by 6.83%, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 have lost 4.45% and 6.57%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings report on April 30, 2025, is anticipated to show an EPS of $2.34, reflecting a significant decline of 54.39% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to rise to $17.13 billion, an increase of 11.04% [2] - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $16.65 per share and revenue at $69.38 billion, indicating a decline of 9.12% in earnings and an increase of 7.85% in revenue compared to the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent analyst estimate revisions are crucial as they reflect changes in short-term business dynamics, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards Allstate's operations [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Allstate at 3 (Hold), with a recent 6.42% decrease in the consensus EPS estimate [6] Group 4 - Allstate's Forward P/E ratio stands at 11.64, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 11.74, suggesting a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.17, compared to the industry's average PEG ratio of 2.11, indicating a more favorable growth expectation relative to its price [7] Group 5 - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 33, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - Allstate (ALL) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 54.4%, with quarterly earnings projected at $2.34 per share, while revenues are anticipated to increase by 11% to $17.13 billion [3][12]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for April 30, and the stock may experience upward movement if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2][3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.04% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model indicates that Allstate has a negative Earnings ESP of -11.71%, suggesting a lower Most Accurate Estimate compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate [10][11]. - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, Allstate holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11][18]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Allstate exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $6.51 by delivering earnings of $7.67, resulting in a positive surprise of +17.82% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Allstate has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates on all occasions [13]. Industry Context - NMI Holdings (NMIH), another player in the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, is expected to post earnings of $1.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, with revenues projected at $170.29 million, up 9% [17]. - NMI Holdings has a negative Earnings ESP of -2.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a similar challenge in predicting an earnings beat [18].

Group 1 - The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is recognized for its commitment to customer care, aligning with its motto "You are in good hands" [1] - Henriot Capital emphasizes a quant-driven investment strategy, focusing on simplicity and common sense to achieve success [1] - The investment approach at Henriot Capital involves acting on model recommendations without human interference, prioritizing data-driven decisions over individual biases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariffs imposed by President Trump, particularly the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, are expected to increase car prices and insurance premiums, significantly impacting the auto insurance industry, especially companies like Progressive Corporation (PGR) and Allstate Corporation (ALL) [1]. Group 1: Progressive Corporation (PGR) - PGR is one of the largest auto insurance groups in the U.S., leading in motorcycle and boat policies, commercial auto insurance, and ranking among the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written [3]. - The company has embraced digitalization and AI, with its Snapshot program offering customized pricing, leading to competitive rates and improved policy life expectancy (PLE) across all business lines [4]. - PGR's combined ratio has averaged less than 93% over the past decade, significantly better than the industry average of over 100%, supported by prudent underwriting and favorable reserve development [5]. - The net margin has shown continuous improvement, expanding by 980 basis points in the last two years due to rising demand for personal auto insurance and effective risk management [6]. - PGR's solid cash flow allows for ongoing investments in growth initiatives, including digitalization, while enhancing book value and reducing leverage [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its offerings into homeowners and commercial insurance, with a return on equity of 33.8%, outperforming the industry average of 8.3% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's 2025 revenue and EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 16.1% and 9.8%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending upward [13]. Group 2: Allstate Corporation (ALL) - ALL is the third-largest property-casualty insurer and the largest publicly held personal lines carrier in the U.S., aiming to be a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution capabilities [9]. - The company expects an increase in total Property-Liability policies in force this year, driven by improved auto insurance policy renewal rates and new business growth [9]. - ALL's net margin has improved by 980 basis points over the last two years, supported by prudent underwriting, although it faces challenges in maintaining its combined ratio target in the mid-90s for the auto business due to rising auto claims [10][11]. - The company is focused on reducing losses, which may lead to a decline in the number of policies in force, while facing inflationary pressures and escalating repair costs [11]. - ALL's return on equity stands at 28.2%, also better than the industry average [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL's 2025 revenues and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 2% and 7.9%, respectively, with EPS estimates also moving upward [14]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - PGR is trading at a price-to-book multiple of 5.97X, above its five-year median of 4.65X, while ALL's price-to-book multiple is at 2.51X, also above its median of 1.9X [15]. - PGR has outperformed ALL in terms of share price growth, gaining 26.3% in the past year compared to ALL's 8.1% [18]. - Based on return on equity, PGR is considered a more efficient generator of profit from shareholders' equity compared to ALL, with PGR holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and ALL a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [18].

Core Insights - Catastrophic weather events are increasingly common in Canada, with only 27% of homeowners feeling confident in their preparedness for such events [1] - Allstate's data indicates that 29% of claims over the last decade were due to major weather events, with a significant spike in claims in 2024, approximately 2.4 times higher than in 2023 [2] - The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that 2024 was the costliest year for severe weather-related losses in Canadian history, exceeding $8.5 billion [3] Preparedness Recommendations - Homeowners are advised to create an emergency plan, build an emergency kit, secure their property, prepare for wildfires, and review their insurance coverage [8] - Allstate emphasizes the importance of proactive measures to mitigate damage from severe weather, as personal items are often irreplaceable [4] Research Methodology - A Léger poll was conducted among 1,000 Canadian homeowners to assess their preparedness for extreme weather events, with a margin of error of ± 3.1% for a probabilistic sample [6]

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation has successfully divested its Employer Voluntary Benefits business to StanCorp Financial Group for $2 billion, completing the transaction as planned within the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The divestiture resulted in a pre-tax book gain of approximately $625 million, which will enhance Allstate's capital management strategy, including a new $1.5 billion share buyback program running until September 30, 2026 [2] - Allstate is also in the process of divesting its Group Health business to Nationwide for expected proceeds of $1.25 billion, with total proceeds from both divestitures projected to reach $3.25 billion by 2025 [3][4] Strategic Focus - Allstate's divestiture strategy aims to free up capital from lower-return businesses and reinvest it into core operations, particularly in the personal property-liability sector and protection services [5] - The Property-Liability business saw an 11.2% year-over-year increase in earned premiums in 2024, driven by prudent rate hikes, while the Protection Services segment experienced a 16.7% revenue growth, primarily due to strong performance in Allstate Protection Plans and Arity [6] Market Performance - Allstate's shares have increased by 19.7% over the past year, compared to the industry's growth of 24.5%, and the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]