Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a "collective retreat" with the S&P 500 futures indicating a fourth consecutive day of decline for U.S. stocks [2][27] - As of the latest update, Dow futures fell by 0.09%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 0.66% [3][28] - Asian markets faced heavier declines, with the South Korean Kospi index plummeting by 5.3%, triggering a temporary trading halt [3][28] Commodity Market Volatility - Extreme volatility in the commodity market remains a focal point, with gold prices initially dropping by 10% before narrowing losses, and silver prices falling by 16% before recovering most of the decline [5][30] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metals futures, increasing holding costs for traders, which typically pressures prices and trading activity [5][30][31][32] Federal Reserve Leadership Impact - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is shifting market expectations towards "less/fewer rate cuts," impacting precious metals prices [12][37] - Analysts suggest that Walsh's past criticisms of the Fed and focus on price stability may lead to a reassessment of the dollar's depreciation narrative, contributing to the recent drop in gold, silver, and copper prices [12][37] Upcoming Economic Data and Earnings Reports - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, expected to show an increase of 68,000 jobs, the largest gain in four months, scheduled for release on Friday [12][41] - A busy earnings week is anticipated, with major companies like Google and Amazon set to report their quarterly results [41][42] Individual Stock Movements - Energy stocks are experiencing pre-market declines, with Occidental Petroleum down 3.1% and ConocoPhillips down 2.6% [43] - Rare earth stocks surged in pre-market trading following President Trump's announcement of a $12 billion mineral reserve initiative [43] - Disney shares rose by 4% in pre-market trading after reporting quarterly revenue that exceeded expectations [44]

AI Stocks Checkup: Weekly Moves And Who's Leading Or Lagging In 2026 | Investor's Business DailyBREAKING: [Futures Off Lows, Bitcoin Dives To Lowest Since 2024]---One month into 2026, the leaders and laggards in artificial intelligence stocks look a lot different than last year. With earnings due from Palantir Technologies (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) this week and Nvidia (NVDA) on Feb. 25, more volatility for AI stocks could be on the way. Among last week's winners were Meta Platforms (META), whose core a ...

Group 1 - The fourth quarter earnings season is ongoing, with major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Qualcomm, and Palantir reporting results [1] - As of January 30, 33% of S&P 500 companies have reported their fourth quarter results, with an estimated 11.9% increase in earnings per share, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the index [2] - Analysts had initially expected an 8.3% increase in earnings per share heading into the reporting period, which was a decrease from the previous quarter's 13.6% growth rate [3] Group 2 - Big Tech companies are setting the tone for the earnings season, with ongoing capital expenditures and themes such as artificial intelligence and economic policies continuing to influence the market [4] - Upcoming earnings reports will include updates from companies like Disney, Chipotle, PepsiCo, Uber, and Snap, indicating a broad range of sectors being analyzed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is currently experiencing signs of an AI bubble, despite the long-term bullish outlook on artificial intelligence. Group 1: Market Performance - The Invesco QQQ Trust, tracking the Nasdaq-100 index, has achieved a total return of 117% over the past three years, largely driven by the "Magnificent Seven" stocks and AI ventures [2]. Group 2: Warning Signs of an AI Bubble - **Enormous Capital Outlays**: Major data center operators, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, collectively spent hundreds of billions on AI-related capital expenditures last year, indicating a surge in investment activity [4]. - **Funding Challenges for OpenAI**: OpenAI plans to spend $1.4 trillion on computing resources over the next eight years, raising questions about funding sources despite reaching $20 billion in annualized revenue last year [5]. - **Financial Engineering**: Companies with strong net income are still raising capital through financial engineering, such as a $27 billion joint venture between Meta Platforms and Blue Owl Capital, which keeps debt off Meta's balance sheet [6]. - **Interconnectedness of AI Sector**: The interconnected nature of AI companies means that struggles within one entity could lead to broader issues across the sector [7]. Group 3: Long-Term Return Uncertainty - Despite rapid adoption of AI tools, with OpenAI's ChatGPT reaching 800 million weekly users and Alphabet's Gemini app having 650 million monthly active users, only 3% of AI users pay for premium access, raising doubts about the adequacy of returns on AI investments [8]. - There is a possibility that AI may only provide incremental benefits to the economy, potentially disappointing those who expect transformative changes akin to past innovations like PCs and mobile devices [9].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is striving for digital sovereignty by reducing reliance on non-EU countries for digital services and infrastructure, with France leading initiatives to promote domestic software solutions [1][5]. Group 1: Digital Sovereignty Initiatives - The EU relies on non-EU countries, primarily the US, for over 80% of its digital services and infrastructure [1][5]. - France is pushing for millions of civil servants to use domestically developed software, such as Visio, to replace Zoom and Microsoft Teams by the end of 2026 [1][5]. - The French government has blocked the sale of Eutelsat's ground antenna business to a private equity firm, citing strategic importance and competition with SpaceX's Starlink [1][5]. Group 2: Legislative and Policy Actions - The European Parliament passed a resolution supporting the development of a European cloud platform and AI models, prioritizing European suppliers in public procurement [5]. - France has been a leader in advocating for digital taxes on large US tech companies within the EU [4]. - The EU is drafting new legislation to promote "digital sovereignty" and reduce dependence on US technology [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Limitations - Despite efforts, Europe has struggled to create competitive alternatives to US technology, with many initiatives failing due to poor performance and user experience [5][6]. - Historical attempts, such as the Quaero search engine, have not succeeded, and Google still holds about 90% of the European search market [6]. - Current cloud infrastructure investments in Europe are still heavily directed towards US providers, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google controlling over two-thirds of the market [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - France's Minister of Public Service emphasized the need for high-quality domestic tools to achieve strategic autonomy and reduce reliance on non-European solutions [7]. - The Visio project aims to develop more tools for the public sector, ultimately replacing Microsoft Office and Google software [7]. - The French government plans to collaborate with European tech companies to enhance the development of these tools [7].

Last week we saw a plethora of important earnings results and increased market volatility. This wee should be another busy one with a lot of important companies due to report. This week we have Amazon (AMZN), Palantir (PLTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOGL), PayPal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), Uber Technologies (UBER), Disney (DIS) and Merck (MRK) all reporting in what shapes as a busy and pivotal week for stocks. Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the m ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that hiring trends for 2026 indicate an increase in hiring but with a more focused and precise approach, influenced by automation tools and artificial intelligence [2] - A significant 90% of U.S. companies reported missing their hiring goals in 2025, with recruiters identifying scheduling interviews as the largest operational burden in the hiring process [3] - Amazon announced an additional 16,000 job cuts, following 14,000 layoffs previously announced in October 2025, attributing these layoffs to organizational restructuring [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season is expected to provide significant insights into various sectors, including technology, healthcare, energy, consumer goods, real estate, and finance, with major companies set to report their quarterly results [2][3][5]. Technology Sector - Major tech companies such as Amazon (AMZN), Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), AMD, Qualcomm (QCOM), and others will report earnings, focusing on AI spending, cloud service demand, and advertising trends [2][3]. - Amazon is anticipated to show a profit increase of approximately 4% year-over-year, with revenue growth of about 12%, driven by resilient e-commerce and AWS cloud services [15][19]. - Google is expected to report a profit growth of around 23% and revenue growth of about 16%, with a significant focus on its Gemini AI applications and cloud service profitability [12][14]. Healthcare Sector - Pfizer (PFE) is projected to see a decline in both revenue and profit, with expectations of $25.6 billion in revenue and $1.58 in EPS [8][9]. - Analysts are divided on Pfizer's outlook, with some maintaining a "buy" rating due to its strong pipeline in oncology and vaccines, while others express concerns over profit margins and growth pressures [10][12]. Consumer and Media Sector - Companies like Disney (DIS) and PayPal (PYPL) will report earnings, with Disney expected to see a profit decline of about 10% year-over-year, but analysts remain optimistic about its long-term growth strategy [5][6]. - Disney's expansion into new markets, such as the Abu Dhabi theme park, is seen as a positive long-term investment [5][6]. Energy and Materials Sector - Key players like ConocoPhillips (COP) and Phillips 66 (PSX) will disclose earnings, reflecting the ongoing dynamics in the energy market [3]. Real Estate and Finance Sector - The earnings reports from companies like Simon Property Group (SPG) and Prudential Financial (PRU) will provide insights into the real estate and financial sectors' performance [3].

作者 Envision Research ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 对牛鞭效应不熟悉的读者可以先了解：这一效应指企业普遍会高估自身所需的库存规模，高估的原因多种多样，比如担心错失销售机会、对需 求判断过度乐观、担忧供应链中断等。 在分析师看来，这些因素都和亚马逊四季度表现高度相关 —— 四季度叠加假日购物季，同时关税不确 定性持续发酵。亚马逊上一季度大概率已出现牛鞭效应的核心迹象。 亚 马 逊 与 牛 鞭 效 应 首先，上一季度亚马逊的库存规模出现了明显攀升。 对于亚马逊这类成长型标的，分析师建议投资者像关注其他盈利指标一样重视库存数据， 这一思路源自投资大师彼得・林奇的核心观点： 和其他存在较多解读空间的财务数据不同，库存是一项歧义较低的指标。 林奇也曾阐述，库存水平是判断商业周期的关键信号。尤其对于周期 性行业，库存积压是明确的预警，意味着企业（或行业）在需求已经走弱的情况下仍在过度生产；反之，库存消耗则是行业复苏的早期信号。 在此背景下，我们来看亚马逊最新资产负债表中的财务数据： 公司库存规模近几个季度持续上行。2024 年第三季度，库存为 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of enabling Javascript and cookies in browsers to prevent access issues [1] - It highlights that users with ad-blockers may face restrictions when trying to access content [1]