格隆汇2月5日｜花旗：将Arm(ARM.US)目标价从200美元下调至190美元。 ...

花旗集团将Arm目标价从200美元下调至190美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price for ARM from $180 to $145 [1] Group 1 - The adjustment in target price reflects a reassessment of ARM's market position and future growth potential [1]

其他公司也已对存储芯片紧张局势发出警告。总部位于中国台湾的芯片制造商联发科在本周的一次电话 会议中提及这一问题，并称其为一个"仍在演变中的"局面。与此同时，英特尔(INTC.US)首席执行官陈 立武周二表示，存储芯片短缺的状况可能会持续数年。他表示："就我所知，目前看不到任何缓解迹 象。"他援引供应商的说法称，相关情况要到2028年才可能改善。 值得一提的是，在AI快速发展下对存储芯片需求持续攀升的情况下，有存储芯片厂商已经开启了密集 扩产和合作动作，加大2026年资本开支是普遍现象。 其中，仅在今年1月，美光科技就连续宣布多个动作，旨在加码供应。1月16日，美光科技宣布其位于美 国纽约州的尖端存储芯片制造园区破土动工，计划总耗资1000亿美元，最多将建设四座晶圆厂，届时将 成为美国最大的半导体工厂。这也是美光科技持续扩大在美投资的一部分，其整体愿景是在美国投资 2000亿美元，建设多座晶圆厂，目标是最终40%的DRAM在美国生产。 高通(QCOM.US)与Arm(ARM.US)的股价在周四公布业绩后均大幅下跌，原因是市场担忧存储芯片短缺 将抑制电子产业的增长前景。全球最大智能手机处理器制造商高通的管理层释放 ...

Core Viewpoint - Memory shortages are expected to constrain cell phone sales for an extended period, negatively impacting demand for companies in the chip industry, including Qualcomm and Arm Holdings, as indicated by disappointing results reported by both companies [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The ongoing memory shortages are anticipated to limit the sales of cell phones, which will subsequently affect the overall demand for the chip industry [1] - Executives and analysts have highlighted that these shortages will have a prolonged effect on the market dynamics within the chip sector [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Qualcomm and Arm Holdings reported results that fell short of investor expectations, reflecting the challenges posed by the current market conditions [1] - The disappointing financial results from these companies underscore the adverse effects of supply chain constraints on their performance [1]

Core Insights - ARM's fiscal third-quarter licensing revenue increased by 25% year-over-year to $505 million, but fell short of analyst expectations by 2.9% [2] - The company reported record quarterly revenue of $1.242 billion for the last three months of 2025, driven by demand for artificial intelligence, surpassing LSEG SmartEstimates by 1.54% [3] - ARM's stock experienced a decline of 8% in late trading, influenced by Qualcomm's disappointing forecast and the overall tech market pressures [2][5] Financial Performance - ARM's licensing revenue for the third quarter was $505 million, which was below the expected $519.9 million [2] - The total revenue for ARM reached $1.242 billion, marking a significant increase attributed to AI demand [3] Market Context - Qualcomm's fiscal first-quarter results exceeded expectations, but its forecast was negatively impacted by a global memory shortage, leading to a 9.68% drop in its shares [1] - ARM's reliance on royalties from consumer products, particularly smartphones, poses a risk if production declines due to memory shortages [4] - ARM's shares have decreased by 4% year-to-date amid broader tech market pressures [5] Strategic Direction - ARM is attempting to diversify into AI chips for data centers and servers, although the success of this strategy remains uncertain [4]

该公司在声明中表示，第四财季营收预计约为14.7亿美元。尽管这高于分析师平均预期的14亿 美元，但部分预测曾高达15亿美元以上。剔除特定项目后，预计每股收益为58美分，高于此前 56美分的预估。 在截至12月31日的第三财季，Arm营收同比增长26%至12.4亿美元，每股收益为43美分，两项 数据均略高于市场平均预期。 芯片设计巨头Arm Holdings Plc(ARM.US)周三发布业绩展望后股价大幅下挫，其营收预测未能满足 近期对人工智能相关企业愈发持怀疑态度的投资者的期望。 Arm主要通过两种方式获得收入：一是向客户授权使用其芯片设计和标准，二是按搭载其技术的 芯片出货量收取专利费。 一个可能的担忧来自授权收入，这被视为客户未来使用Arm产品意愿的风向标。该季度授权收入 为5.05亿美元，低于分析师平均预估的5.2亿美元。 同期专利费收入达7.37亿美元，超出平均预期。Arm表示，与数据中心相关产品的授权收入较去 年同期增长了一倍。 Arm首席执行官Rene Haas在接受采访时表示，市场需求，尤其是数据中心市场的需求已超出预 期。但他对提供公司预期增长幅度的"模糊"长期目标持谨慎态度，更倾向于保持保 ...

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings' stock declined despite reporting strong earnings, indicating that investor expectations for AI companies are exceptionally high in the current market environment [1] Earnings Results - Arm reported revenue of $1.24 billion for the fiscal third quarter, representing a 26% increase from the previous year and slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $1.23 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were 43 cents, surpassing the FactSet consensus of 41 cents [1] Market Context - The decline in Arm's stock post-earnings reflects a broader trend where investors are scrutinizing AI companies more rigorously [1] - CEO Rene Haas mentioned that memory shortages could have a minor impact on the business, highlighting potential supply chain challenges [1]

Group 1 - Arm Holdings Plc's stock price fell over 8% after the company released its earnings outlook, which did not meet investor expectations regarding revenue from artificial intelligence-related businesses [1] - The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be approximately $1.47 billion, slightly above the analyst average estimate of $1.4 billion, but below some forecasts that exceeded $1.5 billion [1] - For the third quarter ending December 31, Arm reported a 26% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.24 billion, with earnings per share of $0.43, both slightly above market expectations [1] Group 2 - Arm generates revenue primarily through two methods: licensing its chip designs and standards to customers and charging royalties based on the shipment volume of chips using its technology [2] - The licensing revenue for the quarter was $505 million, below the analyst average estimate of $520 million, while patent fee revenue reached $737 million, exceeding average expectations [2] - CEO Rene Haas indicated that market demand, particularly in the data center sector, has exceeded expectations, but he remains cautious about long-term growth targets, preferring to focus on specific goals [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue grew 26% year-on-year to a record $1.24 billion, marking the fourth consecutive billion-dollar quarter [5][13] - Royalties increased 27% to a record $737 million, driven by strength in AI and general-purpose data centers [5][13] - Non-GAAP EPS reached $0.43, supported by higher revenue and slightly lower operating expenses than expected [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - License revenue was $505 million, up 25% year-on-year, driven by demand for next-generation technologies [5][14] - Data center royalty revenue has grown more than 100% year-on-year, with expectations for it to become the largest business segment in the future [5][13] - Edge AI devices, particularly smartphones, are experiencing faster growth than the market, with all major Android OEMs ramping up production of CSS-based chips [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Arm's share among top hyperscalers is expected to reach 50%, with significant deployments of Neoverse CPUs [8][9] - The automotive market in Physical AI grew double digits year-on-year, contributing to strong royalty performance [14] - The shift towards agent-based AI is reshaping data center design, requiring CPUs with higher core counts and better power efficiency [8][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Arm has organized its business around three units: Edge AI, Physical AI, and Cloud AI, to align with customer deployment of AI [6] - The company is focused on investing in innovation across a broad spectrum of compute technologies, including next-generation architectures and compute subsystems [5][16] - Arm aims to be the compute platform of choice for all AI workloads, leveraging its strengths in power efficiency and predictable latency [10][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in future revenue growth due to strong customer demand and a growing base of long-duration contracts at higher royalty rates [17] - The company anticipates revenue of $1.47 billion for Q4, representing an 18% year-on-year growth at the midpoint [17] - Management acknowledged potential risks from memory supply chain constraints but indicated that growth in Cloud AI is compensating for these risks [24][25] Other Important Information - Arm is hosting an event on March 24th, with no details provided ahead of the event [18] - The company is exploring chiplets and complete SoCs as part of its R&D investments [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Arm's role in AI and cloud data centers - Management highlighted the shift from training to inference workloads, emphasizing the suitability of CPUs for agentic AI tasks due to their power efficiency and low latency [21][22] Question: Impact of memory supply chain constraints on royalty revenue - Management indicated that a potential 20% reduction in smartphone unit volumes could translate to a 1-2% negative impact on total royalties, with Cloud AI growth offsetting risks [23][24][25] Question: SoftBank's potential need to sell Arm stock - Management confirmed that SoftBank's leadership is not interested in selling any shares of Arm stock, expressing long-term confidence in the company [30] Question: Trends in royalty revenue growth - Management noted that royalty growth percentages may be lower due to tougher comparisons from previous quarters, but absolute dollar growth is expected to remain strong [31][32] Question: Data center revenue quantification - Management indicated that data center revenue is expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching similar or larger levels than the smartphone business in the coming years [39] Question: Impact of higher royalty rates on smartphone unit volumes - Management explained that the transition to higher royalty rates with v9 and CSS will help offset lower smartphone unit volumes [42][43] Question: Partnerships and custom ASICs with SoftBank - Management did not provide specific details on potential custom ASICs but acknowledged the substantial partnership with SoftBank [46] Question: Arm's IP penetration in AI data center semis - Management discussed the evolving architecture of data center chips and the increasing role of CPUs in handling AI workloads [49][50] Question: Compute subsystems' contribution to royalty revenue - Management indicated that CSS has grown from approaching double digits to well into the teens percentage of royalty revenue, with expectations for further growth [56][57]