Market Overview - The stock market has experienced significant volatility, with the S&P 500 index rising over 10% on April 9 due to a tariff pause announcement by the Trump administration, but subsequently falling the next day [1][2] American Express - American Express has a strong brand presence and focuses on affluent customers, leading to steady revenue growth, with over half of its revenue derived from credit card swipe fees [3] - The company has successfully acquired 12.2 million and 13 million net new cardholders in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with an average spend per cardmember of nearly $25,000 [4] - Despite potential earnings challenges during a recession in 2025, American Express is well-positioned due to its affluent customer base, which showed resilience during the inflation scare of 2022 [5] - The management is committed to growing dividends and repurchasing stock, with a long-term revenue growth target of 10% per year and even faster earnings per share growth [6] Visa - Visa operates as a payments network for banks and does not issue credit cards, which has allowed it to become a major player in global payment transactions, with 4.7 billion cards in circulation [7] - The company may face reduced spending during a recession, but is expected to grow with inflation and the shift towards digital payments, reporting a 9% year-over-year growth in total payments volume [8] - Visa has impressive operating margins of 66% and has seen its earnings per share grow by 317% over the past decade, with expectations for continued growth [9] - Currently, Visa trades at a high trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, making it less attractive as an entry point, but it remains a stock to watch for potential future buying opportunities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current market downturn presents a valuable buying opportunity for American Express, particularly for long-term investors despite potential challenges in 2025 due to tariffs [2][11]. Company Overview - American Express is one of the largest credit card issuers in the U.S., with approximately 146.5 million cards in circulation by the end of 2024 [3]. - The company has a unique business model, with 66% of its revenue derived from credit card swipe fees and customer fees rather than net interest income [4]. Customer Base and Performance - American Express serves a wealthier customer base, with an average spending of $25,000 per card member in 2024 and write-off rates below 2% in Q4 2024, positioning it favorably during economic downturns [5]. Capital Returns - The company has a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders, with a 110% increase in dividends over the last decade and significant share repurchases totaling $5.4 billion in 2024 [6][7]. - The reduction in shares outstanding by 21% over the past 10 years enhances shareholder value through increased ownership stakes and EPS growth [7]. Stock Valuation - The current forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for American Express is 15, down from over 20 at the beginning of the year, indicating a significant discount for investors [9][10]. - Management anticipates long-term revenue growth of over 10% annually, which could lead to continued declines in the P/E ratio as the stock price stabilizes [10].

Group 1: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America are set to report earnings next week, with Goldman Sachs expected to perform well due to management confidence and downsizing efforts [1][2] - Citigroup's stock is anticipated to gain regardless of quarterly performance, while Bank of America is expected to post decent earnings based on recent trends [3] - Johnson & Johnson's earnings report will be closely watched for updates on ongoing litigation and potential news about new drugs, which could positively impact its stock [4] Group 2: Other Notable Earnings - Abbott Laboratories is expected to show strength in its franchises but may also address ongoing lawsuits affecting its stock [5] - Taiwan Semiconductor, UnitedHealth, and American Express will report earnings on Thursday, with UnitedHealth being labeled a "universal buy" and American Express expected to have a strong quarter despite potential post-report trading issues [7] - Netflix's earnings call is anticipated to highlight its ad-tier subscription model, although external factors such as political drama may overshadow its news [8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Retail sales data will be released on Wednesday, with expectations of strong numbers based on positive signals from major retailers like Walmart, Amazon, and Costco [6]

Core Viewpoint - American Express Company (AXP) shares have declined 21.3% year to date, underperforming the S&P 500's 14.1% decline, amid broader industry struggles and concerns over economic factors [1][4] Company Performance - American Express is now 8.9% closer to its 52-week low of $214.51, which may attract investors looking to buy the dip [4] - The company operates under a different business model compared to Visa and Mastercard, acting as both a card issuer and payment processor, which involves taking on full credit risk [5] - Despite the perceived risk, American Express relies on a wealthy, low-risk customer base, minimizing credit risk [6] Market Environment - Economists and traders have raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could impact American Express's banking segment by reducing net interest income [7] - Lower interest rates may stimulate consumer spending, potentially benefiting American Express's core credit card business [7] Valuation - American Express trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.70X, slightly above the industry average of 13.18X, but below its own five-year median P/E of 16.73X, indicating potential for upside [9] - In comparison, Visa and Mastercard have higher valuations, trading at forward P/E ratios of 26X and 29.49X, respectively [10] Financial Health - As of the fourth quarter, American Express held $40.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents with only $1.4 billion in short-term debt, indicating a strong liquidity position [12] - The company generated $14 billion in net cash from operations in 2024, supporting growth investments and shareholder returns [12] - American Express returned $7.9 billion through dividends and share buybacks, with a recent 17% increase in its quarterly dividend [12] Customer Base and Strategy - American Express has a loyal customer base with high card acquisition and retention rates, driving steady card fee revenue [13] - The company is focusing on marketing to younger generations, viewing them as long-term growth opportunities [13] - With a diversified customer base and solid financials, American Express is positioned for continued earnings and revenue growth [14] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings indicates a 14.5% year-over-year increase, with revenue growth estimates of 8.6% for 2025 and 8.3% for 2026 [15] - American Express has surpassed earnings estimates in the past four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 6.9% [15] Challenges - The company's expenses have been rising, with total expenses increasing by 22% in 2021 and 24% in 2022, which may pressure profit growth [17] - American Express is more exposed to domestic economic fluctuations compared to Visa and Mastercard, making it less flexible in adapting to non-card payment trends [18]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has achieved a remarkable 40,000% increase in shareholder capital over the past 40 years under Warren Buffett's leadership, with American Express being a significant holding that may attract average investors [1] Company Overview - American Express represents 13.8% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, with the conglomerate controlling about one-fifth of the business [1] - The stock is currently trading 28% below its record high, influenced by a 10% drop on April 3 due to concerns over tariffs affecting spending [2] Competitive Advantage - American Express is considered a "wonderful" company due to its strong brand positioned as a premium offering in the credit card market [3][4] - The company benefits from a powerful economic moat, characterized by high annual fees, top-notch rewards, and valuable partnerships that attract high-spending consumers [5] - Its two-sided platform creates a network effect, enhancing value for both cardholders and merchants [6] Financial Performance - Over the past five years, American Express has seen revenue grow at a compound annual rate of 8.7%, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing at an annual pace of 11.9% [8] - Wall Street consensus estimates project EPS to grow at an annualized rate of 14.5% over the next three years, indicating strong bottom-line growth potential [9] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The stock's valuation has become more attractive, trading at about 16 times forward earnings, down from a peak forward P/E ratio of 21.2 [10] - Even if the valuation remains constant, projected EPS doubling in the next five years could lead to a 100% gain on the stock [11]

Core Viewpoint - Mastercard and American Express are two major players in the global payments industry, each with distinct business models and growth strategies, with Mastercard focusing on a payment network and AmEx on a vertically integrated model [1][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mastercard has a market capitalization of $483.7 billion, while American Express has a market cap of $174.1 billion [2]. - Both companies have shown resilience despite macroeconomic challenges, driven by the shift towards digital payments, recovery in international travel, and strong consumer spending [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Mastercard has reported robust earnings with double-digit growth in cross-border volumes and transaction processing revenues, particularly benefiting from travel spending recovery [5]. - In 2022, Mastercard's operating cash flows rose 18.3% year-over-year to $11.2 billion, with projections of $12 billion in 2023 and $14.8 billion in 2024 [7]. - American Express reported a decline in operating cash flow of 12% year-over-year to $18.6 billion in 2023 and a further decline of 24.3% to $14.1 billion in 2024 [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Mastercard's asset-light model allows it to scale globally without bearing credit risk, enabling substantial share buybacks and dividend payouts, with $8.44 billion in cash and $750 million in short-term debt [6][8]. - American Express returned $7.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024, and announced a 17% increase in its quarterly dividend to 82 cents per share [15]. Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Year-to-date, Mastercard shares gained 0.8%, while American Express shares fell 16.5%, reflecting investor concerns over domestic spending [16]. - Mastercard trades at a P/E of 31.97, higher than American Express's 15.60, indicating higher growth expectations for Mastercard [19]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 12.1% and 8.7%, while AmEx's estimates signal 8.6% and 14.6% increases [21]. Group 5: Competitive Advantages - Mastercard's global diversification and innovation in fintech partnerships position it well for growth in emerging markets and digital payment trends [26]. - American Express has a strong brand and affluent customer base but is more exposed to domestic economic shifts and less agile in adapting to non-card payment trends [12][13].

Group 1 - Fortune collaborated with Korn Ferry on a survey of corporate reputations, starting with approximately 1,500 candidates [1] - The candidates included the 1,000 largest U.S. companies ranked by revenue and non-U.S. companies from Fortune's Global 500 database [1]

Core Insights - The introduction of new tariffs, including a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, is expected to significantly impact consumer prices across various sectors, including electronics and groceries [3] - Experts recommend proactive financial planning to mitigate the effects of potential price hikes due to tariffs, emphasizing the importance of emergency funds and debt management [2][8] Financial Strategies - **Emergency Fund**: It is advised to bolster emergency savings to cover three to six months of expenses, especially in light of potential inflation from tariffs [1] - **Debt Management**: Paying off high-interest debt is crucial, as rising costs may lead the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, making variable-rate debts more expensive [4] - **Investment Diversification**: Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios with index funds and ETFs to manage market volatility caused by trade wars and tariffs [5] - **Certificates of Deposit (CDs)**: CDs currently offer rates above 4.00%, which may become more attractive if interest rates rise due to tariffs [6] - **Timing Major Purchases**: Consumers are advised to consider making significant purchases sooner rather than later to avoid potential price increases on imported goods [7]

ToplineStocks nosedived across the board Thursday as Wall Street largely panned the highly aggressive tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, sending major indexes toward what could be their worst daily losses in years, and several prominent names were hit particularly hard by the latest tariff developments.Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the start of President Donald Trump's ... More news conference on tariffs Wednesday.Getty Images Key FactsThe blue chip Dow Jones Industri ...

Core Insights - Visa has reportedly offered Apple approximately $100 million to acquire the credit card business currently held by Mastercard [1] - The competition for Apple's credit card business is intensifying as Goldman Sachs, the bank behind the Apple card, is exiting the consumer lending sector [2] - Apple is seeking a new banking partner and plans to select a payment network before finalizing a new bank [2] - The Apple card program is significant, with around $20 billion in balances, making it one of the largest co-branded credit card programs [3] - Apple launched its credit card in 2019 in partnership with Goldman Sachs and Mastercard, featuring no fees and daily cash-back rewards [4] - Reports from July 2023 indicated that Goldman Sachs' partnership with Apple might be ending, with discussions ongoing with American Express for a potential takeover [5] - In January, it was reported that Apple was in talks with Barclays and Synchrony Financial to replace Goldman Sachs, despite Goldman having a contract with Apple until 2030 [6]