从 2005 年被迫接受日方敲定的 71.5% 涨价，到如今主动引导定价规则，中方的角色转变背后是战略布 局的长期积淀。这不仅守护了国内产业利益，更是维护金融主权与经济安全的重要实践，为全球大宗商 品贸易公平发展提供了新路径。 2025 年 10 月初，中方矿产资源集团要求国内钢厂暂停采购必和必拓所有美元计价的海运铁矿石，这一 举措迅速引发全球大宗商品市场震动。作为消耗全球 75% 以上海运铁矿石的核心买家，中方此次行动 绝非偶然的商业调整，而是对长期定价不公的主动回应，彰显了在资源贸易中掌握主动权的战略决心。 长期以来，国际三大矿商依托垄断地位，通过机制不透明的普氏指数操控价格。该指数仅依赖 30 至 40 家机构询价，不锚定实际成交，2025 年 6 月曾出现较中方港口现货价溢价 12.7% 的情况。这种定价模 式让中方钢企承受巨大成本压力，2024 年中方钢企销售利润率仅 0.71%，而澳大利亚矿企利润率超 100%，形成鲜明反差。改变始于 2022 年中方矿产资源集团的成立。这家总部位于雄安的央企整合了国 内分散的采购力量，结束了此前钢企 "各自为战、相互抬价" 的困境，成为铁矿石贸易中的 "超级买 ...

从那以后，中国开始布局。2010年代，推进铁矿石来源多样化，几内亚的西芒杜铁矿是重点，这是全球 最大未开发铁矿，品位高，年产能1.2亿吨。中国企业参与开发，2025年9月14日试生产，11月首批货发 运。这直接威胁澳大利亚的垄断地位。中国铝业还成了力拓的最大单一股东，福蒂斯丘金属集团从中国 银团贷了142亿元人民币，用铁矿石还款。这些绑住利益，让矿企不敢太嚣张。2022年，中国矿产资源 集团成立，把40%的进口采购权集中起来。以前钢厂像散沙，现在有统一谈判平台，国家发展改革委和 市场监管总局也介入，协调期货市场参与国际对话。 这九天，必和必拓评估风险。中国需求占它出口60%，暂停直接打现金流。它试着硬扛，但其他矿企不 站队，像力拓和淡水河谷已跟中国签人民币订单。集团整合采购，禁令执行严，钢厂没乱。10月9日， 协议签了，必和必拓同意第四季度30%现货用人民币结算，价格接近中方要的。首批覆盖30%交易量， 避免汇率额外损失。双方还约好2026年评估全面转向人民币定价。 2003年，中国加入世贸组织，基建和城市化启动，钢铁需求爆棚。粗钢产量从那年的2.7亿吨，五年内 窜到5.1亿吨。铁矿石价格跟着水涨船高，从每吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group, the world's largest mining company, reported an increase in copper production and a slight decrease in iron ore production for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, maintaining a positive outlook on future commodity demand [2][7]. Iron Ore Business - Iron ore is the core revenue source for BHP, accounting for over half of its total earnings [4]. - In the first quarter, iron ore production was 64.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9% [4]. - Despite the slight decline in production, iron ore sales remained stable, with sales volume roughly flat compared to the same period last year, and a 5% increase in high-value lump ore sales [4]. - BHP emphasized the flexibility and diversification of its sales model, utilizing various distribution channels including maritime sales and sales at Chinese ports [4]. Copper Business - BHP produced 493,600 tons of copper in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4% [5]. - The growth in copper production was attributed to record processing volumes and recovery rates at the Escondida mine in Chile [5]. - Copper is BHP's second-largest revenue source, and the company is expanding its copper business amid increasing global demand, projected to grow by about 70% by 2050 [5]. - BHP is benefiting from operational disruptions among competitors, such as Freeport-McMoRan's production halt due to a fatal landslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [5]. Coal Business - BHP's metallurgical coal production increased by 8% year-on-year, driven by strong performance at the Broadmeadow mine in eastern Australia [5]. - However, the coal business faces challenges from weak global coal prices and high royalties in Queensland, Australia, impacting profitability [6]. - BHP announced the closure of a coal mine operated in joint venture with Mitsubishi Corporation due to unsustainable low profits under current market conditions [6]. Commodity Demand Outlook - Despite global economic uncertainties, BHP's CEO expressed optimism about the demand for commodities, citing robust macroeconomic signals and upward revisions in global growth expectations [7]. - The company anticipates that China's economic growth will support commodity market demand, projecting a growth rate of around 5% for China this year [8].

智通财经APP获悉，周二，全球最大的上市矿业公司必和必拓(BHP.US)发表了对全球铁矿石需求持乐观 态度的观点，同时在将其关键增长支柱——铜矿的一季度产量提升之际，保持了铁矿石产出的稳定。 "大宗商品需求的整体宏观经济信号依然强劲，全球经济增长预期也在不断上调，"必和必拓首席执行官 Mike Henry表示。 本月早些时候，其竞争对手力拓(RIO.US)曾指出，随着全球经济体在即将实施的关税政策前提前加大投 资，中国市场对铁矿石的需求已有所回升。 展望未来，必和必拓维持其对西澳大利亚铁矿石2026财年的产量预期不变，仍为2.84亿至2.96亿公吨(按 100%权益口径计算)。 增产铜矿强化战略布局 另外，必和必拓当季铜产量增长4%至49.36万吨，这主要得益于智利巨型Escondida项目的增产，有效抵 消了其他矿区产量下滑的影响。 在行业前景日益看好的背景下，大型矿业公司正积极扩大铜业务布局。这种红色金属因在可再生能源和 数据基础设施领域的关键作用而备受青睐。必和必拓自身预测，到2050年全球铜需求将激增70%。 在截至9月30日的三个月里，必和必拓西澳大利亚矿区按100%权益计算的铁矿石产量为7020万 ...

BHP Group boosted output of copper — a key growth pillar for the world’s biggest miner — in its first quarter, while production of iron ore was steady. https://t.co/3JEFChGY7y ...

通过布局海外优质矿产资源，中国正逐步摆脱对国际矿山的依赖，为未来争取铁矿石定价权奠定坚实基 础。中国已下定决心，在铁矿石领域的博弈中不再被动受制，而是主动出击，掌握主导权。 组建中国矿产资源集团有限公司，是党和国家着眼于用好国内国际两个市场、两种资源，增强中国重要 矿产资源供应保障能力的重大举措，对于保障产业链供应链安全，促进高质量发展具有重要意义。作为 中央直接管理的国有独资公司和国家授权投资机构，公司将坚持开放协同、合作共赢，坚持市场化、法 治化运营，打造具有全球竞争力和影响力的世界一流矿产资源综合服务企业。 文/杨晨 据观察者网10月1日报道，当地时间9月30日，彭博社：中国矿产资源集团有限公司本周已要求国内买家 暂停购买任何以美元计价的必和必拓（BHP）海运船货。报道称，这意味着新合约的签署将全面暂停， 包括已从澳大利亚矿山运出的铁矿石船货也不例外。目前，必和必拓仅有少量已抵达中国港口的铁矿石 现货可供交易，且这些资源均以人民币计价。知情人士透露，这一决定是在双方自上周晚些时候进行了 多轮磋商但未取得成果之后做出的。彭博社提到，中国矿产资源集团9月初要求钢厂暂停购买必和必拓 的金布巴粉（Jimbleb ...

Key TakeawaysCanada's Energy Regulator is set to implement new exemption orders on December 1, streamlining approvals for "negligible-risk" oil and gas projects, though excluding additions like storage facilities.Japanese stocks surged to record highs, with the Nikkei 225 jumping 2.9% to 48,970.40, following Sanae Takaichi's emergence as the likely next Prime Minister, fueling investor bets on continued fiscal expansion.The Trump administration is "opportunistically evaluating" a public offering for Fannie ...

与中国矿产资源集团签署协议，接受人民币结算部分铁矿石贸易。这一突破标志着中国首次在铁矿石这一战略资源领域打破美元定价的垄断。 铁矿石作为 全球最庞大的实物贸易商品之一，年交易额超过1.2万亿美元，此前约80%以美元结算。 中国作为全球最大铁矿石进口国，占全球海运铁矿石贸易总量的75%，却长期在定价方面受制于人。 过去几十年，中国购买全球约七成的海运铁矿石，但 价格一直由国际矿商决定。 必和必拓、力拓和淡水河谷三大国际矿商通过操控现货溢价，曾让中国钢厂多支付超过200亿美元。 2021年，每吨铁矿石的溢价高达30美元，相当于中国钢 厂每生产一吨钢材就要多花200元人民币。 转机出现在2022年中国矿产资源集团的成立。 这家央企整合了国内钢铁厂的采购权，代表全国四成铁矿石进口量进行谈判，彻底改变了以往国内钢企分散 采购、被"逐个击破"的局面。 今年8月，中方在谈判中向必和必拓提出两个核心要求：用人民币结算，以及以80美元/吨的现货价格为基准锁定季度价格。 在澳方最初拒绝后，中国矿产 资源集团于9月30日发出暂停采购通知，导致谈判僵局公开化。 华东师范大学澳大利亚研究中心主任陈弘教授指出，这一举措撼动了美元主导的全 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Iron Ore and Coal** industry, focusing on market trends, production data, and trade dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Iron Ore Prices and Market Sentiment** - Iron ore prices have increased to **$109/t**, aligning with other commodities due to improved sentiment from the China Work Plan and Fed rate cut expectations [5][6] - The positioning in the Dalian market shifted from a net short position of approximately **-3Mt** before the Golden Week to a broadly neutral stance [5] 2. **China's Iron Ore Inventory and Shipments** - Iron ore inventories in China are stable at ports and have increased seasonally at mills ahead of the Golden Week [5] - Year-to-date shipments from Brazil and Australia have increased by **3%** and **1%** respectively, while non-traditional supply and domestic production in China remain soft [5] 3. **Steel Production and Exports in China** - Steel production in China slowed seasonally in late September, but the MySteel utilization rate remains high at over **90%** post-Golden Week [5] - China's steel exports reached approximately **120Mtpa** in September, reflecting a **10%** month-over-month increase despite rising trade restrictions [6] 4. **Company Ratings and Free Cash Flow Estimates** - Neutral ratings are maintained for Vale, RIO, BHP, and FMG, with a Sell rating on KIO. Estimated spot 2026 free cash flow yields are **5%** for BHP, **10%** for RIO, and over **15%** for Vale [5] 5. **September Trade Data from China** - Preliminary September trade data indicates a **10%** month-over-month increase in iron ore imports to a record high of **116Mt**, while coal imports decreased by **3%** year-over-year [6] Additional Important Insights 1. **Production Guidance and Performance** - RIO's 3Q production is expected to be **84Mt**, down **1Mt** year-over-year, while BHP's shipments are projected at **69Mt**, down **3Mt** year-over-year [9] - Vale's production is anticipated to increase by **2Mt** year-over-year to **93Mt** in the September quarter [9] 2. **Future Production Estimates** - RIO has trimmed its 2025 guidance by approximately **7Mt** due to weather disruptions, now targeting the lower end of the **323-338Mt** range [9] - BHP's FY26 guidance is set at **284-296Mt**, with FMG targeting **195-205Mt** including contributions from Iron Bridge [9] 3. **Coal Market Dynamics** - Glencore announced a **5-10Mt** curtailment at the Cerrejon thermal coal mine due to weak market conditions, with FY production now estimated at **11-16Mt** [9][12] 4. **Regional Production Trends** - Brazilian iron ore producers, including Vale, are tracking towards the mid-point of their 2025 guidance range of **325-335Mt** [9] - South African and Canadian producers are also adjusting their production estimates based on market conditions and operational performance [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the iron ore and coal industries.

Core Viewpoint - China's decision to suspend the purchase of BHP iron ore priced in USD marks a significant shift in the iron ore market, challenging the pricing power of Australian mining giants and indicating a new era of negotiations based on RMB settlements [2][24]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 30, China Mineral Resources Group notified major steel mills and traders to halt purchases of BHP iron ore priced in USD, including already delivered cargoes [2]. - BHP's request for a 15% increase in long-term contract prices to $109.5 per ton is seen as unreasonable, given the prevailing spot price of around $80 per ton [4][6]. - China accounts for 75% of global seaborne iron ore imports, with an annual import volume exceeding 1 billion tons, yet it has historically lacked pricing power due to the concentrated supply from Australian mining companies [6][11]. Group 2: Financial Implications - From 2003 to 2008, international iron ore prices surged by 337.5%, costing Chinese steel companies over 700 billion RMB [8]. - In 2021, the average import price of iron ore reached $179.1 per ton, contributing $17.3 billion to BHP's net profit, while the entire Chinese steel industry projected a profit of only 70 billion RMB in 2024 [8][11]. - BHP's mining costs range from $18 to $24 per wet ton, allowing for a profit margin exceeding 150% when sold to China at prices above $100 [10]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 consolidated procurement efforts among major steel companies, enhancing negotiation power against international mining firms [17]. - China's diversification of supply chains has reduced its reliance on Australian iron ore, with significant projects like the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea expected to come online by the end of 2025 [19][21]. - The shift towards RMB settlements for iron ore trade represents a strategic move to reclaim pricing power and reduce dependence on USD transactions [28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following China's suspension of BHP iron ore purchases, international iron ore prices fell by 3%, and BHP's stock dropped by 6%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of 5 billion AUD [26]. - Australia's economy, heavily reliant on iron ore exports to China, faces potential GDP declines of 1.2% due to the halted purchases [26].