A price dispute between mining giant BHP Group and China’s state-run iron ore buyer risks dragging on for months, and even into early 2026, as both sides remain locked in stalemate. https://t.co/QwC2MrmutY ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by China Mineral Resources Group to suspend the purchase of iron ore from BHP Billiton priced in US dollars has significant implications for both the Australian mining industry and the global commodity pricing system, indicating a potential shift in the dominance of the US dollar in international trade [1][3][18]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, BHP's stock price dropped sharply, resulting in a market capitalization loss of nearly 12 billion AUD, equivalent to approximately 57 billion RMB [1]. - The Australian mining sector is facing pressure with nearly 100 billion RMB worth of iron ore inventory becoming burdensome, as the supply chain struggles to find alternative markets [1][8]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - The failure of the recent China-Australia trade talks, where China proposed to switch to RMB pricing for long-term contracts while BHP insisted on maintaining USD pricing with a 15% markup, highlights the ongoing struggle for pricing power and currency dominance [3][5]. - The negotiation reflects a broader contest over who defines value and sets the terms of trade, with China seeking to transition from a passive follower to an active rule-maker in the pricing structure [5][18]. Group 3: Dependency Analysis - China relies heavily on Australia for iron ore, importing about 60% of its needs from the country, while Australia is even more dependent, with approximately 85% of its iron ore exports going to China [7][8]. - The suspension of USD-denominated purchases allows China to exert more control over the transaction dynamics, while Australia faces the reality of its reliance on a single major buyer [7][8]. Group 4: Structural Factors - Australia's competitive advantage in iron ore mining stems from its high-grade deposits and efficient extraction methods, which have historically allowed it to command higher prices in the market [9][12]. - The long-standing pricing practices, which have favored Australian exporters, have resulted in significant financial gains for them, amounting to nearly 700 billion RMB from the Chinese market over the past decade [12][18]. Group 5: Strategic Shifts - China is actively diversifying its sources of iron ore and building a network of storage facilities to mitigate supply risks and enhance its bargaining position [14][15]. - The establishment of a centralized procurement platform by China Mineral Resources Group aims to consolidate orders from various steel mills, thereby increasing negotiating power against global mining giants [15][26]. Group 6: Currency and Financial Implications - The insistence on USD pricing by BHP is not only a matter of tradition but also a strategy to leverage financial tools and currency fluctuations for profit [16][18]. - China's push for RMB settlement is part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on the US dollar and establish a domestic currency ecosystem for international trade [18][19]. Group 7: Future Outlook - Potential outcomes of the current situation include BHP making concessions on pricing and currency, Australia seeking alternative buyers, or China continuing to enhance its supply chain resilience [25][26]. - The recent developments signal a shift in the negotiation landscape, prompting both parties to reconsider their strategies regarding pricing mechanisms and currency choices in future discussions [26].

在矿石航线与汇率曲线交织的海风里，中澳之间的铁矿买卖忽然按下了暂停键。2025年9月底，中国矿产资源集团以一纸通知叫停对必和必拓美元计价的铁 矿石采购，范围锁定新合同和在途船货。这不是"砍断绳索"的禁运，而更像棋局里挪走一个关键子，逼对手重新坐回棋盘边。它指向的焦点只有一个：定价 权。 过去十多年，海运铁矿的价格普遍追随普氏指数加溢价的组合，季度为主的议价节奏在卖方看来稳妥，在买方眼里却意味着跟着美元和周期跳舞。越是周期 上行时，指数越坚硬、溢价越顽固，中国钢厂的成本就越像风口上翻滚的旗帜。中国矿产资源集团在2022年挂牌，本意就是把四分五裂的采购盘子集中起 来，统一议价、统一结算，借规模换条款。到了2025年初秋，谈判先从具体矿种开刀，比如金布巴粉，限购试探，再扩大到所有海运船货。一条线索很清 晰：从季度改月度，从美元换人民币，先把结算与周期的节拍调整，再碰定价的唱词。 买方的"不"，与卖方的惯性 定价权的攻防：指数、周期与币种的三角博弈 这套调整背后是风险管理的朴素逻辑。以美元计价的铁矿合同天然嵌入汇率风险，人民币结算能把这一段"外生波动"从钢厂的账本上拿掉；月度周期则让采 购更靠近现货波动，避免季度内" ...

买方觉醒 过去几十年，铁矿石市场一直由必和必拓、力拓和淡水河谷三大巨头主导。买家只能按照他们的规则交易，中国虽然是全球最大钢铁生产国，消化了大量 的铁矿石，却长期在采购上受制于人。 2022年，中国矿产资源集团成立，这一举动耐人寻味。它将国内几十家钢厂的采购需求集中起来，统一谈判，改变了以往"分散采购、各自为战"的局面。 一纸通知，全球大宗商品市场应声而震，澳大利亚总理急忙出面回应，必和必拓股价应声下跌。 9月30日，中国矿产资源集团的一则简短通知，在全球大宗商品市场投下重磅炸弹：即日起，国内所有钢厂暂停采购澳大利亚必和必拓旗下以美元计价的 海运铁矿石，已装船的货轮暂缓接卸，仅保留人民币结算的现货铁矿石交易。 消息一出，必和必拓股价当日盘中暴跌。 这场围绕"黑色黄金"的博弈，绝非简单的贸易纠纷，而是中国从资源贸易"被动买单者"转向"规则制定者"的关键 一步。 这一转变的效果逐渐放大。2025年前8个月，中国从澳大利亚进口的铁矿石比例下降了12%。中国铁矿石进口多元化比例大幅提升。 中国需求的市场分量 中国对全球铁矿石市场的影响力，源于其巨大的需求规模。 据行业数据显示，中国消费了全球约75%的海运铁矿石。20 ...

Mike Henry, BHP CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the growing demand for copper, impact of AI boom on copper demand, status of the Resolution Copper Project, addressing supply deficit and weaknesses in critical mineral supply chains, the need for permitting reforms, impact of tariffs, and more. ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing a significant demand surge driven by factors such as population growth, economic expansion, and the energy transition, with expectations of demand growth up to 70% by 2050 [3] Group 1: Copper Demand and Supply - The demand for copper is being fueled by traditional growth drivers and new sectors like AI data centers and electric vehicles, leading to a compounding effect on demand [3] - BHP, as the world's largest copper producer, is well-positioned to capitalize on this demand due to its scale and resources [3][8] - The company is optimistic about its growth options, particularly a project in Arizona that could supply 25% of the US's copper demand for decades [4] Group 2: Project Development and Challenges - The Resolution Mine project in Arizona has faced court challenges but is progressing, with hopes for resolution soon to enable significant investment decisions [5][6] - The permitting process in the US is a major challenge for new mining projects, and BHP is advocating for policy reforms to expedite this process [9][11] Group 3: Government Involvement and Policy - The US government is taking measures to secure critical mineral supply chains, including potential equity stakes in smaller mining companies, which BHP views as a complex but necessary approach [10][14] - BHP believes that while it can operate independently, government support is crucial for addressing the supply chain challenges in the mining sector [12][14] Group 4: Global Market Dynamics - China's economic growth remains strong, with expectations to meet a 5% growth target, sustaining demand for metals like copper and iron ore [18][19] - BHP does not focus on gold as a primary growth area but benefits from gold as a byproduct of copper production, which enhances overall revenue [20][21] Group 5: Future Investments - BHP is investing upwards of $12 billion in Canada to become one of the world's largest potash producers by 2027, indicating a strategic diversification in its growth commodities [22]

«——【·前言·】——» 中国矿产暂缓跟必和必拓的美元铁矿石订单，消息传开，全球市场直接懵圈，这可不是小打小闹的商业矛盾，分明是战略上的主动表态。 文丨编辑 来科点谱 之前中澳谈了好几轮都卡着不动：必和必拓非要把矿价涨15%，还死抓着美元结算不松口，国内钢厂早被价格、汇率两座大山压得没了利润。 谈不拢就掀桌子，中方敢这么硬气，是早有三根支柱撑着：巴西、俄罗斯的矿能补缺口，人民币结算已铺开，定价权也在抢，这盘大棋早下了。 铁矿供应不再被卡脖子 先说第一根支柱：供应链重构，过去咱们被动得厉害，铁矿石进口差不多八成得靠澳大利亚和巴西，人家一联合涨价，下游钢企就只能吞着，根本没有议价 空间，被人卡脖子的日子谁都不想过。 所以打破这两个大国垄断，实现供应多元化，成了头等大事，这几年布局开始出成果，最亮眼的就是非洲几内亚西芒杜铁矿，这个项目中国主导，被业内称 作铁矿界的"航母"。 预计今年年底第一批矿石就能出海，明年产能直接冲到1.2亿吨，这意味着全球市场上多了一个超大型供应商，直接冲击了原有供给格局。 除了非洲，其他地方也没闲着，北边邻居俄罗斯通过跨境铁路出口的铁矿量，今年同比增长22%，有意思的是，其中约一半用人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing unprecedented turbulence due to China's sudden shift in iron ore procurement strategies, signaling a significant transformation in the resource game and altering the balance of power in global trade [1][14]. Group 1: Historical Context - For two decades, the pricing power in iron ore trade has been dominated by three major mining groups, leaving China, the largest importer, in a passive position during negotiations [3][5]. - China's massive procurement volume has not translated into pricing power, leading to compressed profits for steel mills and increased cost pressures due to currency fluctuations [3][5]. Group 2: Changes in Pricing Mechanism - The shift from long-term contracts to index-based pricing has introduced volatility and speculation in iron ore prices, complicating China's ability to unify its purchasing strategy [5][11]. - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 marks a pivotal change, allowing Chinese steel companies to consolidate their purchasing power and begin to challenge the pricing dominance of sellers [5][11]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea is a crucial part of China's overseas resource strategy, providing a stable supply of high-grade iron ore [7][11]. - The push for transactions in RMB instead of USD represents a direct challenge to the existing global commodity settlement system, enhancing China's financial sovereignty and elevating the RMB's status in international markets [7][14]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The suspension of purchases from BHP by the China Mineral Resources Group has led to a freeze in new contracts among domestic steel mills and traders, causing significant disruptions in the global market [9][11]. - Australia's economy, heavily reliant on iron ore exports, faces severe challenges as it struggles to pivot to alternative markets amid declining demand [9][16]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The shift in China's procurement strategy is not merely a commercial negotiation but a fundamental reshaping of the global resource landscape, challenging the long-standing seller-dominated market [14][18]. - The emergence of buyer alliances is expected to drive changes in pricing power across various sectors, indicating a critical moment for rewriting international trade and financial rules [16][18].

必和必拓2024-2025财年的业绩报告显示，其铁矿石业务息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）高达260亿美元，利润率惊人的达到53%。与此同时，同期中国整 个钢铁行业的利润总额仅为291.9亿元人民币（约合40亿美元），不及必和必拓一家公司利润的一半。这种极度失衡的利润分配，根源在于澳大利亚矿商对 铁矿石定价权的长期垄断。 2025年9月30日，一声令下，全球铁矿石市场随之风起云涌。中国矿产资源集团向国内的钢厂和贸易商发布了一纸通知，宣布全面暂停采购澳大利亚必和必 拓所有以美元计价的铁矿石船货。这标志着作为全球最大的铁矿石买家，中国首次向国际矿业巨头亮出如此明确的"暂停牌"。 消息传出后，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯虽紧急表态称此举"令人失望"，但中方态度却异常坚决。这场看似突如其来的贸易摩擦，实则是一场围绕着定价权与 货币结算方式展开的深层博弈。双方在谈判桌上的较量，早已超越了单纯的价格争议。 矿商们的高额利润，建立在其一贯的高价策略之上。2024年，澳大利亚出口至中国的铁矿石到岸价格一直维持在每吨130美元的高位，而其开采成本却不足 20美元。即便加上运费，每吨的净利润依然超过100美元，利润率高达惊人的333 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic move by China Mineral Resources Group to halt the purchase of iron ore priced in USD from BHP has sent shockwaves through the global iron ore market, significantly impacting Australia's economy and the iron ore trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement, BHP's stock price plummeted by 3.4%, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 12 billion AUD (approximately 60 billion RMB) [3]. - Australia's Treasury estimates that if the supply halt continues until 2026, iron ore export revenues could decline by 11 billion AUD, potentially dragging down the national GDP growth by 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points [7]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - China, holding a 75% market share in global seaborne iron ore, has historically lacked pricing power despite being the largest buyer [5]. - In 2024, BHP generated a staggering profit of 224 billion RMB from the Chinese market, averaging 620 million RMB in daily revenue, highlighting the significant profit margin disparity [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - China's ability to assertively halt USD-denominated transactions is supported by its diversified supply network, including the Simandou project in Guinea, which is expected to produce 60 million tons annually starting in late 2025 [9]. - China has also signed a long-term procurement agreement with Vale for 50 million tons annually, with imports from Brazil rising to 27.8% in 2024 [9]. Group 4: Currency and Trade Relations - The directive to pause USD transactions, while allowing RMB-denominated trades, reflects a strategic intent to promote the internationalization of the RMB, aiming to establish a closed-loop settlement system in the iron ore market [11]. - The proportion of RMB settlements in Australia's iron ore exports reached 60% in 2024, indicating a shift towards local currency transactions [11]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - The steel industry in China has been under pressure from high iron ore prices, with iron ore accounting for 54% of the cost of iron production in the first half of 2024, leading to an average profit margin of only 1.1% for major steel companies [13]. - The establishment of the "China Mineral National Chain" platform aims to eliminate intermediaries and curb speculation, while the construction of a national iron ore spot trading center will enhance price transparency [13].