智通财经APP了解到，如果欧洲能源巨头壳牌(SHEL.US)收购另一欧洲能源巨头英国石油公司 (BP.US)，这将成为欧洲历史上最大规模的交易之一，并首次创造出足以挑战全球石油行业领袖——埃 克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)的欧洲石油巨擘，整合后的油气超级巨无霸上游石油和天然气产 量将达到每天近 500 万桶油当量，届时可能大幅超过上述两大石油行业领袖。 尽管英国石油当前的处境并不理想——过去一年其股价下跌近三分之一大幅跑输欧洲基准股指以及油气 行业的同行们，投资者们普遍对其能源转型以及扭亏为盈计划信心不足。但是，该笔潜在的大型收购交 易对壳牌具有颠覆性的意义。 然而，此次超级大规模合并将面临重大挑战，包括英国石油公司本身的高额债务和负债、潜在的反垄断 竞争问题以及需要被迫出售大量资产，这些都可能成为此项大规模交易的障碍。 石油巨擘即将诞生 瑞银集团的分析师团队指出，两家总部设在伦敦的石油巨头合并后，其上游石油和天然气整体产量将接 近日均 500万桶油当量，较壳牌目前的大约270万桶/日猛烈增长85%，从而成为全球最大规模的归属于 投资者们的油气生产巨头。作为对比，总部位于美国的全球最大规模油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shell plc is exploring a potential acquisition of BP plc, which could be one of the largest mergers in the oil industry, driven by BP's declining market capitalization and strategic missteps [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shell's Interest in BP - Shell is evaluating the strategic and financial feasibility of acquiring BP, with discussions gaining momentum due to BP's nearly 22.4% decline in share value over the past year [2][3]. - Shell's market capitalization is approximately $200.5 billion, more than double BP's $76 billion, indicating a significant performance gap between the two companies [3]. - Shell is preparing for various scenarios, including the possibility of competing bids, allowing it to act swiftly if necessary [3][9]. Group 2: BP's Challenges - BP has faced declining investor confidence and strategic challenges, particularly following a leadership transition that shifted focus from green energy back to oil and gas [4][5]. - The recent drop in Brent crude prices below $70 per barrel has complicated BP's cash flow outlook, leading to increased pressure from activist investors like Elliott Investment Management, which holds a 5% stake in BP [5][4]. - BP's restructuring efforts and weakened valuation may make it more vulnerable to acquisition interest [9]. Group 3: Shell's Strategic Direction - Under CEO Wael Sawan, Shell is undergoing a strategic overhaul, focusing on streamlining operations and prioritizing its core fossil fuel portfolio [6]. - Shell's CEO emphasized that any major acquisition must enhance free cash flow per share and align with long-term financial objectives [7]. - The recent acquisition of Pavilion Energy reflects Shell's strategy of pursuing targeted, high-return investments, which could be further amplified by a potential BP acquisition [8][10].

BP p.l.c. (NYSE: BP ) is a century—old giant that stands at the origins of global energy. Its journey began back in 1909 with drilling rigs in Persia, and today BP is a complex integrated structure covering the entireMy professional background spans multiple continents and includes experience in private banking, corporate finance, and strategic advisory. For several years, I developed and led a private banking department in Dubai, where I crafted tailored investment solutions to meet the unique needs of aff ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry includes companies involved in upstream, midstream, and downstream operations across various global regions [3] - Integrated energy companies are increasingly focusing on renewable energy to transition towards lower emissions and reduced carbon intensity [3] Current Challenges - Trade tensions are creating uncertainty in the business environment, potentially leading to economic slowdowns [1][4] - A slowdown in oil production growth is negatively impacting upstream revenues, as companies prioritize returning capital to shareholders over production expansion [5] - Growing demand for renewable energy is expected to decrease reliance on fossil fuels, adversely affecting integrated energy firms that primarily produce and transport oil and gas [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry ranks 183, placing it in the bottom 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating bearish near-term prospects [7][8] - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed compared to the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector and the S&P 500, with a decline of 11.2% versus the S&P 500's gain of 11.5% [9][10] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.97X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 15.32X and the sector's 4.38X [13] - Historical trading ranges for the industry have been between 2.74X and 6.54X over the past five years, with a median of 4.11X [14] Key Companies - BP has initiated production from three key projects, aiming to increase its production capacity by 100 MBbl/D, with a long-term goal of 250 MBbl/D by 2027 [18] - ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances its production capabilities in the Permian Basin, known for low production costs [22] - Chevron is a major producer in the Permian Basin, maintaining a conservative capital spending approach that supports strong cash flow generation [24]

1. 5月5日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.62%，标普500指数期货跌0.77%，纳指期货跌 0.95%。 盘前市场动向 4000美元!高盛重申"金牛"预测。受美元走软支撑，黄金周一走强。截至发稿，黄金期货涨超2%，报约3325美元/盎司;黄金现货 涨超2%，报约3317美元/盎司。黄金价格今年迄今已飙升近四分之一，4月曾触及每盎司3500美元以上的纪录高位，但在过去几 周有所回落，早些时候的上涨主要由特朗普极具破坏性的贸易和地缘政治政策引发的避险买盘、投机性需求和全球央行的买盘 推动。周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因此，该行预计白银 不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到 3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 欧佩克+增产暴击油价至四年低位，华尔街紧急下调预期。沙特主导的激进举措正在重塑全球石油市场格局——通过欧佩克+大 幅增产，这一行动正迫使华尔街分析师纷纷下调油 ...

Group 1 - Shell (SHEL.US) is exploring the possibility of acquiring its competitor BP (BP.US), while monitoring the decline in oil prices and BP's stock price to assess the attractiveness of the deal [1] - Shell has consulted advisors regarding the strategic and financial feasibility of such a large merger in recent weeks [1] - BP's market value has decreased by nearly 30% over the past year, which Shell is closely watching before making any decisions [1][2] Group 2 - If the merger between Shell and BP occurs, it would be one of the largest mergers in the history of the oil industry [2] - Shell's current market value is approximately £149 billion, more than double BP's £56 billion market value [2] - BP's long-term underperformance is attributed to its former CEO's net-zero strategy, while the new CEO has announced a strategic shift to refocus on oil and reduce stock buybacks [2] Group 3 - Under CEO Wael Sawan, Shell is seeking to lower costs, cut underperforming renewable energy sectors, and reinvest in its core fossil fuel business [3] - Shell's stock performance has been stronger compared to U.S. peers like Chevron (CVX.US) and ExxonMobil (XOM.US), but its valuation still lags behind [3] - Shell's recent acquisition of Pavilion Energy reflects its targeted, value-driven approach, and a merger with BP could significantly enhance Shell's production capacity [3]

Core Viewpoint - BP is currently facing challenges due to weaker refining margins impacting Q1 earnings and uncertainty surrounding its strategic reset [1] Financial Performance - BP's Q1 earnings have been negatively affected by reduced refining margins, indicating potential operational difficulties [1] Strategic Outlook - The market is uncertain about BP's strategy reset, which may lead to volatility in investor sentiment and stock performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - BP plc reported first-quarter 2025 earnings that missed expectations due to lower liquid price realizations and weaker refining margins, but the company highlighted new upstream project launches and discoveries that improve its core business outlook [1]. Financial Performance - BP's first-quarter adjusted earnings were 53 cents per American Depositary Share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents and declining from 97 cents reported a year ago [2]. - Total quarterly revenues were $47.9 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $57.2 billion and down from $49.9 billion reported a year ago [3]. Upstream Projects and Discoveries - BP has commenced production from three key projects: Cypre in Trinidad, Raven infill in Egypt, and GTA in Mauritania and Senegal, which will increase production capacity by 100 thousand barrels per day, contributing to a target of 250 thousand barrels per day by 2027 [5]. - The company made six successful oil and gas discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico, Trinidad, Egypt, and Namibia, enhancing its production outlook [6]. Renewable Energy Initiatives - BP is transitioning to lower-carbon energy solutions, exemplified by its acquisition of Archaea Energy, which captures methane emissions and converts them into renewable natural gas [7]. - The integration of Archaea into BP's "Gas and Low Carbon Energy" segment is a significant part of its energy transition strategy, with expectations for Archaea to become free cash flow positive by 2026 [8]. Divestment Strategy - BP has made progress in divesting non-core assets, completing or signing $1.5 billion in divestment agreements year to date, with a target of $3 billion to $4 billion for the year [9]. - The company has a multi-year divestment program of $20 billion aimed at strengthening its balance sheet, with proceeds helping to reach a net debt target of $14 to $18 billion by 2027 [10]. Stock Performance and Valuation - BP's stock has declined 23.8% over the past year, underperforming the industry average decline of 11.5% and also lagging behind competitors ExxonMobil and Chevron [11]. - The stock is trading at a 2.68x trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, which is below the industry average of 3.95x, indicating it is not overpriced [14]. Market Outlook - The short-term Wall Street average price target for BP is 33.3% higher than the last closing price of $27.88, with the highest target set at $56, suggesting a potential upside of 100.9% [18].

About this content About Oliver Haill Oliver has been writing about companies and markets since the early 2000s, cutting his teeth as a financial journalist at Growth Company Investor with a focusing on AIM companies and small caps, before a few years later becoming a section editor and then head of research. He joined Proactive after a couple of years freelancing, where he worked for the Financial Times Group, ITV, Press Association, Reuters sports desk, the London Olympic News Service, Rugby World Cup ...

英国石油公司欧股下跌2%，此前券商下调其目标价。 ...