[Gold steady above $5,000/oz amid geopolitical, economic risks][Citi lifts silver prices target, says move to $300 is "extremely unlikely"][Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator at highest levels since 2021][Weaker dollar could push gold prices to $6,000 this year: Deutsche Bank]By [MarketBeat.com]Author [Dan Schmidt]Published 01/27/2026, 10:28 AMView all comments (0)[WM-0.01%][BTI1.53%][SCI0.22%]The best offense is sometimes a good defense, and that's especially true in markets when stocks turn volatile. Defen ...

Core Thesis - British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) is viewed positively due to its strong dividend yield, cash flow generation, and growth in new product categories, making it a reliable investment option [1][3][6] Financial Performance - As of January 13th, BTI's share price was $56.62, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 29.85 and 11.40 respectively [1] - The company has delivered over 60% total return since the initial investment, indicating strong performance [3] - Operating cash flow conversion is expected to exceed 95%, showcasing the company's ability to generate substantial free cash for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction [5] Business Segments - The traditional combustibles business in the U.S. is stabilizing, showing revenue and profit growth for the first time since 2022 [4] - New product categories, such as Velo, are experiencing rapid expansion with triple-digit revenue growth and are on track for full-year profitability [4] - The U.S. vaping segment, Vuse, has returned to growth, further supporting revenue recovery [4] Capital Management - Management has increased the share buyback program to £1.3 billion for 2026 and aims to reduce net debt to EBITDA to a target range of 2.0–2.5x, providing flexibility for capital returns to shareholders [5][6] - The company reaffirms mid-term guidance with steady revenue and profit growth, alongside continued dividend progression [6] Investment Outlook - British American Tobacco is positioned to deliver shareholder value through resilient cash generation and diversified growth drivers, while expanding future dividend capacity [7] - The stock has appreciated approximately 35.35% since a previous bullish thesis, driven by new product categories and stabilization in U.S. combustibles [8]

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Core Viewpoint - British American Tobacco (BTI) is experiencing a divergence in analyst outlook, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a cautious stance while Jefferies expresses strong confidence in the company's growth potential, particularly in smoke-free products [2][3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Morgan Stanley analyst Rashad Kawan raised the price target for BTI to 3,050 GBp from 3,000 GBp but retained an Underweight rating on the shares [2]. - Jefferies has named BTI as its top pick in the global tobacco sector, citing a sustainable shift towards a smoke-free product portfolio that is not fully reflected in the current share price [3]. Investment Case Factors - Jefferies analyst Andrei Andon-Ionita highlighted several positive factors for BTI, including market share gains in the US modern oral segment, early signs of volume and pricing improvements, and a solid outlook for combustibles through 2026 [4]. - The company's strong balance sheet is expected to allow for continued and meaningful cash returns to shareholders [4]. Growth in Modern Oral Products - Jefferies is more optimistic than the broader Wall Street consensus regarding BTI's growth in modern oral products, particularly in the US, where Velo Plus has seen over 300% growth in both volume and value [5]. - The resilience of the combustibles business is noted, as it continues to generate robust cash flow and margin expansion despite ongoing volume declines [5].

Core Viewpoint - The tobacco industry in Colombia warns that the government's potential new tax on tobacco, enacted through an economic emergency decree, could undermine the legal tobacco sector, impact local fiscal revenues, and exacerbate smuggling activities [1] Group 1: Industry Concerns - The industry highlights that over 36% of the national cigarette consumption is currently from smuggled products, with some border areas seeing smuggling rates exceeding 90% [1] - There is a call for the government to engage in technical dialogue regarding the new tax policy to protect legal operations, local finances, and the rule of law [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

Group 1 - British American Tobacco (BTI) is the last remaining giant of the tobacco industry under review, focusing on its strategy of "A Better Tomorrow" [1] - The analyst emphasizes a detail-oriented investment approach, particularly in undervalued sectors like Oil & Gas and consumer goods, which may offer substantial returns [1] - The analyst expresses a preference for long-term value investing while occasionally engaging in deal arbitrage opportunities, citing examples like Microsoft/Activision Blizzard and Spirit Airlines/Jetblue [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to British American Tobacco or other companies mentioned [2][3]

Market Overview - U.S. private credit market risks are emerging, with significant exposure concentrated in large banks and insurance funds rather than smaller banks[6] - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in Q3 2025, with GDP growth reaching 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%[31] Stock Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,919 points, up 0.07%[15] - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 6,909.8 points and the Nasdaq up 0.6% to 23,561.8 points[9] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold and silver prices reached record highs due to U.S. interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks[28] - The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since early October, while the Chinese yuan approached the 7 yuan mark against the dollar[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply in the short term following strong GDP data, with the 2-year yield at 3.53%[31] - A $44 billion auction of 7-year Treasury bonds is scheduled, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[31] Sector Insights - The healthcare sector in Latin America showed strong performance, with the medical care sector rising by 2.48%[9] - The real estate sector in China is under focus, with government efforts to stabilize the market and support reasonable financing needs for real estate companies[31]

Core Viewpoint - The Capital Group Dividend Value ETF (CGDV) is described as misleadingly labeled, as it aims to produce a dividend yield higher than the S&P 500 while incorporating growth stocks, which differentiates it from traditional value ETFs [4][6][14]. ETF Overview - CGDV's mandate is to generate a dividend yield exceeding the S&P 500's current yield of approximately 1.3%, with CGDV achieving a yield of around 1.8% [5][11]. - The ETF has performed well since its inception, keeping pace with NASDAQ returns and outperforming traditional value ETFs [5][6]. Investment Strategy - CGDV includes a mix of growth and value stocks, with significant holdings in companies like NVIDIA, which contributes to its performance dynamics [6][10]. - The ETF allocates about 20% to mid-cap stocks and approximately 8-10% to foreign stocks, primarily from developed markets [7][10]. Holdings and Diversification - The top holdings of CGDV include major U.S. companies such as Eli Lilly, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, indicating a focus on large-cap stocks [8][10]. - The ETF is positioned as a way to diversify a core holding, offering slightly more foreign and mid-cap exposure compared to traditional indices [13]. Target Investor Profile - CGDV is suited for investors seeking total returns rather than solely focusing on dividends, appealing to those who are comfortable with some level of risk and potential share liquidation for cash needs [12][13]. - Traditional value investors may find CGDV less appealing due to its growth-oriented approach, which diverges from classic value investing principles [14][19]. Market Outlook - The ETF is not hedged against market downturns, but it has shown resilience during market shocks, indicating a potential for stability [17]. - The overall market outlook remains bullish, with expectations of continued growth driven by lower borrowing costs and expanding profit margins for growth companies [20][21].