智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，对中国海外发展(00688)前景保持谨慎，维持目标价16.71港 元及"买入"评级。该行看好公司在一线城市的布局，认为其相对稳健的合同销售表现及行业领先的毛利 率，均有助于锁定未入账收入。 中国海外上半年收入同比跌4.3%，跌幅大于该行对公司2025财年下降1.8%的预测;毛利率收窄4.7个百分 点至17.4%，胜于预期;核心净利润率保持在10.6%的双位数水平，同比降1.7个百分点，但仍高于该行对 公司全年预测的8.3%。期内，核心净利润同比增17.5%至87.8亿元人民币，占该行全年预测的57%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Development Company reported strong mid-year results for 2025, showcasing robust sales performance and financial stability, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [1][3][9] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Overseas Development achieved contract sales of RMB 120.15 billion, ranking second in the industry [3] - The company maintained a strong market presence in first-tier cities, with Beijing sales exceeding RMB 30.45 billion, holding the highest market share [3] - Overall, sales in key cities such as Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen totaled RMB 55.64 billion, accounting for 53.7% of the company's total contract sales [3] Product Development - The company launched the "China Overseas Good House Living OS System," addressing 172 customer needs across four dimensions: safety, comfort, green, and intelligence [4] - 28 projects have adopted this system, enhancing customer experience and providing a competitive edge [4] Financial Stability - China Overseas Development maintained a strong financial structure, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.7% and a net gearing ratio of 28.4% [5] - The company reported cash reserves of RMB 108.96 billion, representing 12.1% of total assets, indicating strong liquidity [5] - The average financing cost was 2.9%, among the lowest in the industry, reflecting strong market credibility [5] Investment Strategy - In the first seven months of 2025, the company acquired 22 land parcels with a total investment of RMB 55.01 billion, leading the industry in investment scale [8] - The focus on first-tier and strong second-tier cities accounted for 86% of the total investment, reinforcing the company's strategic direction [8] ESG Initiatives - The company published its first "Climate Change Response White Paper" and ranked first globally in real estate according to the London Stock Exchange Group [8] - It received high ratings in various international ESG assessments, enhancing its reputation in the capital market [8]

中国海外发展 （00688.HK） 2025 年 08 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/27 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 13.810 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 18.580/10.540 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,511.49 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,511.49 | | 总股本(亿股) | 109.45 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 109.45 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 11.81 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 中国海外发展 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《权益销售及拿地金额排名首位，商 业收入稳健增长—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.2 《单月销售数据同比提升明显，项目 实力夯实经营稳定性—港股公司信息 更新报告》-2025.1.8 《销售市占率逆势提升，商业物业收 入保持增长—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.29 公司 2025H1 销售金额 1201.5 亿元，同比-19.0%，销售规模行 ...

花旗报告指出，中国海外发展上半年盈利符合预期，核心利润同比下降18%，派发中期股息25仙，维持 稳定派息比率。报告预测，中国海外下半年销售增长将继续位居行业前两位，利润率有望改善。如果全 年销售和利润率表现良好，将可能上调2026及27财年的盈利预测。花旗将目标价从15.7港元上调至17.2 港元，并维持"买入"评级。 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，中国海外发展上半年盈利符合预期，核心利润按年跌18%，派中期息25仙，维持 稳定派息比率。展望下半年，预计中国海外销售增长将持续处于行业前两名，并预期公司利润率将会改 善。如果公司全年的销售和利润率表现理想，将为其2026及27财年的盈测带来上调空间。该行将其目标 价由15.7港元上调至17.2港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for China Overseas Development (00688), projecting a core profit of 15 billion yuan in 2025 (down 4.3% year-on-year) and 16 billion yuan in 2026 (up 6.5% year-on-year). The target price is raised by 10% to HKD 17.2 per share, indicating a 25% upside potential from the current stock price [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's H1 2025 performance aligns with market expectations, reporting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan and a core net profit of 8.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.5%. The core net profit margin remains at 10.6%, maintaining a double-digit level [2]. - The interim dividend is set at HKD 0.25 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 29% based on core net profit, consistent with historical levels [2]. - The company achieved contract sales of approximately 120 billion yuan in H1, a year-on-year decline of about 19%, with first-tier cities and Hong Kong accounting for about 46% of sales [2]. Group 2: Investment and Cash Flow - The company reported sales and other operating cash inflows of approximately 96.9 billion yuan and capital expenditures of about 83.7 billion yuan, maintaining positive operating cash flow. Cash on hand at the end of the period was approximately 108.7 billion yuan, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.9 times [3]. - The company reduced interest-bearing debt by approximately 14.1 billion yuan, aligning with cash reserves. The debt-to-asset ratio stood at 53.7% at the end of H1 2025, down from 55.8% at the end of 2024 [3]. Group 3: Commercial Property Operations - The company reported commercial property revenue of 3.54 billion yuan in H1, with shopping center revenue at 1.17 billion yuan. The operational efficiency of shopping centers has improved, with a rental rate of 96.2% for mature projects [4]. - The company is progressing with the issuance of its first publicly offered REITs, which may provide new avenues for asset value release in the future [4]. - The company has indicated a robust outlook for 2025, with increased investment activity since July and expectations for significant urban renewal projects in key first-tier cities [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for China Overseas Development (00688), projecting a core profit of 15 billion yuan in 2025 (down 4.3% year-on-year) and 16 billion yuan in 2026 (up 6.5% year-on-year). The target price is raised by 10% to HKD 17.2 per share, indicating a 25% upside potential compared to the current stock price, which is trading at 0.36 times the 2025 price-to-book ratio [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's H1 2025 performance aligns with market expectations, reporting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan and a core net profit of 8.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.5%. The core net profit margin remains at 10.6%, maintaining a double-digit level. The interim dividend is set at HKD 0.25 per share, with a payout ratio of 29% based on core net profit, consistent with historical levels [2]. Group 2: Sales and Investment - In H1 2025, the company achieved contract sales of approximately 120 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of about 19%, with first-tier cities and Hong Kong accounting for about 46% of the total. The company’s equity land acquisition amounted to 40.11 billion yuan, with a monthly investment of 14.9 billion yuan in July, leading the industry in cumulative investment scale. The land acquisition in first-tier cities constituted about 64% of the total, showcasing a competitive advantage in securing comprehensive large projects through urban renewal and public market channels [3]. Group 3: Financial Stability - The company maintained a robust financial position, with sales and other operating cash inflows of approximately 96.9 billion yuan and capital expenditures of about 83.7 billion yuan, resulting in positive operating cash flow. As of the end of H1 2025, cash on hand was approximately 108.7 billion yuan (cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.9 times), a decrease of about 15.2 billion yuan from the end of 2024. The company also reduced interest-bearing debt by approximately 14.1 billion yuan, aligning with its cash position. The debt-to-asset ratio stood at 53.7% (down from 55.8% at the end of 2024), with short-term debt ratio further reduced to 7.6% (down from 11.8% at the end of 2024). The average financing cost was 2.9%, among the lowest in the industry [4]. Group 4: Commercial Property Operations - The company reported commercial property revenue of 3.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, with shopping center revenue at 1.17 billion yuan. The operational efficiency of shopping centers has steadily improved, with a rental rate of 96.2% for mature projects (operating for three years or more). Sales and foot traffic in shopping centers increased by 6.7% and 11% year-on-year, respectively. Additionally, the company is progressing with the issuance of its first publicly offered REITs focused on consumer infrastructure, which may provide new avenues for asset value release in the future [5]. Group 5: Future Development Guidance - The company provides a solid outlook for 2025, noting a marginal increase in investment intensity since July. It is expected to potentially launch large-scale urban renewal projects in key first-tier cities, with Q4 being a traditional peak season for land acquisition. The company anticipates that the equity investment amount may exceed the initial guidance of 100 billion yuan for the year, which could support continued strong sales and profit performance [6].

Group 1: Elevator Renovation in Hangzhou - Hangzhou government has completed the renovation of 4,353 old residential elevators since the initiative started in July last year, benefiting 12,700 households across 2,993 building units [1] - The elevator renovation project is included in the provincial and municipal government’s livelihood projects for the year, with a target of updating 7,000 elevators [1] Group 2: China Overseas Development Financial Results - For the first half of 2025, China Overseas Development reported a revenue of approximately 83.22 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.599 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.63% [2] Group 3: China Resources Land Financial Results - In the first half of 2025, China Resources Land achieved a revenue of approximately 94.921 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.88 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.22% [3] Group 4: Bright Real Estate Financial Results - Bright Real Estate reported a revenue of approximately 2.808 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.12%, and a net loss of 398 million yuan, which is a significant reduction of 4,926.96% compared to the previous year [4] - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 224 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 110.25% [4] Group 5: China Merchants Shekou Transaction - China Merchants Shekou announced a share transfer agreement with China Merchants Jinling, involving the transfer of 100% equity of Shenzhen Taiziwan Commercial Storage Co., Ltd. for approximately 716 million yuan [5] - This transaction is classified as a related party transaction but does not constitute a major asset restructuring [5]

Group 1: Elevator Renovation in Hangzhou - Hangzhou government has completed the renovation of 4,353 old residential elevators since the initiative started in July last year, benefiting 12,700 households across 2,993 building units [1] - The elevator renovation project has been included in the provincial and municipal government’s livelihood projects for the year, with a target of updating 7,000 elevators [1] Group 2: Financial Performance of China Overseas Development - China Overseas Development reported a revenue of approximately 83.22 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a shareholder profit of 8.599 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.63% [2] Group 3: Financial Performance of China Resources Land - China Resources Land achieved a revenue of approximately 94.921 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a shareholder profit of 11.88 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.22% [3] Group 4: Financial Performance of Bright Real Estate - Bright Real Estate reported a revenue of approximately 2.808 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.12%, and a net loss of 398 million yuan, which is a significant reduction of 4,926.96% [4] - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 224 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 110.25% [4] Group 5: Equity Transfer by China Merchants Shekou - China Merchants Shekou announced the transfer of 100% equity of its subsidiary, Shenzhen Taiziwan Commercial Storage Investment Co., Ltd., to China Merchants Shipping for approximately 716 million yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% within the next 6-12 months [3][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit first as the industry stabilizes, with future performance projected to return to a growth trajectory [3]. - The company has a strong market position, ranking second in contract sales within the industry, and maintains a significant market share in key cities [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 832.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.0 billion CNY, down 16.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.4%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous year, yet still above industry averages [1]. - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 1201.5 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a 19% decrease year-on-year [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on high-energy cities, with 86% of its land acquisitions in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [2]. - As of the end of July 2025, the company had acquired 22 plots of land with a total investment of 550.1 billion CNY, leading the industry in investment scale [2]. Financial Health - The company's financial structure is described as safe and robust, with key financial metrics indicating a healthy balance sheet. The asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, stands at 45.7%, and the net debt ratio is 28.4% [2]. - The average financing cost for the first half of 2025 was 2.9%, which is the lowest in the industry, having decreased by 20 basis points from the end of 2024 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 133.9 billion CNY, 146.2 billion CNY, and 154.7 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -14.4%, +9.2%, and +5.8% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.4x for 2025, 9.5x for 2026, and 9.0x for 2027 [3].