智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，维持中国海外发展(00688)"推荐"评级，预计公司2025-2027 年EPS分别为1.40、1.38、1.52元。参考可比优质头部公司市盈率均值，给予公司2025年13倍PE，测算 市值约2188亿港元，对应股价20港元。公司作为头部央企，融资成本低，可售货值充足。2025上半年实 现营业收入832亿元，同比下降4.3%;归属普通股东净利润86亿元，同比下降16.6%。上半年毛利率 17.4%，已售未结金额1750亿元，较2024年末减少19.8%。 华创证券主要观点如下： 好房子体系落地，土储积极补仓，上半年投资强度达33.4% 1)2025年上半年公司实现销售面积512万方，同比下滑5.9%;销售金额1202亿元，同比下滑19.0%，合约 销售均价为23467元/平米，同比下降14.0%。公司延续聚焦一线城市的策略，推动"中海好房子Living OS 系统"落地，北京萬吉玖序、上海云邸玖章等首批中海好房子陆续上市推售。期内集团系列公司(不含中 海宏洋)在北上广深及香港五个城市实现合约销售额556.4亿元，其中北京实现合约销售304.5亿元。2)公 司积极补仓土储 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Overseas Development (00688.HK) with a target price of HKD 20 [1][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 832 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of HKD 86 billion, down 16.6% year-on-year [1][7]. - The "Good House" system has established a market benchmark, and the company is actively replenishing its land reserves, with an investment intensity of 33.4% in the first half of 2025 [7][8]. - The company continues to focus on first-tier cities, with a sales area of 5.12 million square meters, a decline of 5.9% year-on-year, and a sales amount of HKD 120.2 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.4%, with a core net profit margin of 10.6% [7]. - The total land reserve area as of the end of June 2025 was 26.93 million square meters, with an equity area of 23.67 million square meters [7]. - The company reported a commercial operation income of HKD 3.54 billion, with shopping centers and office buildings contributing 81% of the revenue [7]. Debt and Cash Flow Summary - The company's interest-bearing debt decreased to HKD 227.5 billion, down HKD 14.1 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.7% [7]. - The average financing cost for the first half of 2025 was 2.9%, and the operating cash flow remained positive [7][8]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be HKD 1.40, HKD 1.38, and HKD 1.52 respectively, with a projected market capitalization of approximately HKD 218.8 billion [7][8].

Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently in a destocking cycle, with various segments seeking new models amid a transformation period and increasing market competition [1] - Non-residential asset values are influenced by operational efficiency, with significant differentiation observed across various segments [2] Non-Residential Asset Value Differentiation - Asset value changes are closely related to three factors: maturity of operational models, stability of operational efficiency, and clarity of exit channels [2] - Long-term rental apartments and commercial assets are favored due to mature operational models and stable returns, while office buildings and industrial parks are negatively impacted by economic downturns, leading to high vacancy rates and declining rents [2] Long-Term Rental Apartments Performance - Long-term rental apartments have emerged as one of the most stable segments in the real estate industry, with high occupancy rates [5] - In the past five years, the occupancy rate of concentrated apartments in core cities has remained above 85%, with cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Nanjing exceeding 93% [5] - REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) related to long-term rental apartments have shown strong performance, with underlying asset occupancy rates exceeding 91% [5][8] Policy and Market Trends - The government is promoting high-quality housing supply and integrating rental housing into the "good housing" system, which may impact the personal rental market [12] - Major cities are adopting various strategies to enhance rental housing quality, such as implementing green building standards and offering incentives for compliant projects [12] - The market is witnessing a dual-track development of market-oriented and guaranteed rental housing, particularly in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [15] Investment Landscape - The long-term rental apartment market is increasingly recognized for its stability, attracting diverse investors, including funds and insurance capital, which now account for 50% of the market, up from 40% in 2023 [15] - The market is entering a long cycle of asset value differentiation and revaluation, making it suitable for investors seeking stable long-term returns [15]