Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 11.64, maintaining the rating for the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance despite industry fluctuations, with a revenue of CNY 86.94 billion for H1 2024, a decrease of 2.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 10.31 billion, down 23.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company maintains a strong financial position, with a net debt ratio of 38.7% and cash reserves of CNY 100.24 billion, leading to an upgrade in its credit rating by S&P from "BBB+/Stable" to "A-/Stable" [3]. - The company is focusing on cash flow management and has increased its dividend payout ratio to 28%, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 86.94 billion, a decrease of 2.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 10.31 billion, down 23.6% year-on-year. The gross margin was 22.1%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [1]. - The company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.30 per share, with a payout ratio of 28%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [1]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company's contracted sales for H1 2024 amounted to CNY 148.38 billion, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 5.44 million square meters, down 32.3% year-on-year. The average selling price increased by 21.7% year-on-year to CNY 27,276 per square meter [2]. - The company acquired land in four cities, adding 117,000 square meters of land with a total land cost of CNY 12.89 billion, maintaining a focus on first and second-tier cities [2]. Financial Strength - The company maintains a prudent financial strategy, with all three red lines remaining in the "green" zone. The weighted average financing cost is 3.5%, among the lowest in the industry [3]. - The company has no maturing offshore debt for 2024 after repaying CNY 11.34 billion in Hong Kong dollar loans and CNY 4.99 billion in US dollar guaranteed notes [3]. Commercial Property Performance - The company's commercial property revenue reached CNY 3.54 billion for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, with shopping center revenue growing by 57.6% [4]. - The occupancy rate for shopping centers reached 96.6%, indicating improved operational efficiency [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company shows strong performance resilience, leading the industry in sales, with quality land reserves and significant financial and financing advantages. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are CNY 23.06 billion and CNY 26.67 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at CNY 28.99 billion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development (00688) [3] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2024 decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 86.9 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 23.5% to 10.31 billion yuan, which was below market expectations [3] - The company focuses on first and second-tier cities for sales and land acquisition, with a sales target for 2024 remaining stable despite industry challenges [3] - The company maintains a strong financial position with low financing costs and green indicators under the "three red lines" policy, indicating a robust development outlook [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 86.9 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.31 billion yuan, down 23.5% [3] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin were 22.1% and 11.9%, respectively, showing declines of 0.5 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, representing 28% of core net profit, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Sales and Land Acquisition - H1 2024 sales amounted to 148.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, with a focus on core first and second-tier cities [3] - The average selling price was 27,300 yuan per square meter, up 21.7% year-on-year [3] - The land acquisition amount for H1 2024 was 12.9 billion yuan, down 66% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 9% [3] Financial Health - The average financing cost was 3.5%, positioning the company at the top of the industry [3] - As of H1 2024, the asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio were 50.0% and 38.7%, respectively, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.9 times [3] - The company reported commercial revenue of 3.54 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year, with a commercial operation scale of 8.71 million square meters [3] Investment Outlook - The report suggests that despite a decline in performance, the company’s focus on first and second-tier cities and its strong financial metrics support a positive investment outlook [3] - The earnings per share forecast for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 2.11, 2.12, and 2.13 yuan, with a current PE ratio of only 5 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][16]. Core Views - The company reported a 23.5% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a revenue of 86.9 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year. The core net profit, excluding foreign exchange gains and property revaluation, was 10.6 billion yuan, also down 23% [5][11]. - Despite the decline in overall sales amounting to 148.4 billion yuan (down 17.6%), the company maintained a leading position in the industry with a sales area of 5.44 million square meters, down 32.3%. The average selling price increased by 21.7% to 27,279 yuan per square meter, driven by strong performance in first-tier cities [8][11]. - The company has a solid financial position with a gross margin of 22.1%, a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.0%, and a net debt ratio of 38.7%. The average financing cost was 3.5%, with a significant portion of loans in RMB [11][13]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 221.6 billion yuan and net profits of 26.1 billion yuan in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 2.38 yuan [2][14]. - The company’s market share increased by 0.49 percentage points to 3.15%, with 83% of sales coming from first-tier and strong second-tier cities [8][11]. - The company has a total land reserve of 49.05 million square meters, sufficient for approximately three years of development needs, with unsold but recognized revenue of 254.1 billion yuan, a 7.1% increase from the end of 2023 [8][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company has experienced a slight decline in revenue but maintains a relatively stable gross profit margin. The core city market share has increased, and commercial property income continues to grow [4][2] - The company focuses on high-energy urban core areas, providing strong profit certainty, and maintains its profit forecast for the years 2024-2026 [4][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 869.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. The profit attributable to shareholders was 103.1 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year [4][2] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin were 22.1% and 13.3%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.5 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [4][2] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, in line with expectations [4][2] Market Position - The company's sales amount and area in the first half of 2024 were 1483.8 billion yuan and 544.0 million square meters, respectively, down 17.6% and 32.3% year-on-year. However, its domestic market share increased by 0.49 percentage points to 3.15% [4][2] - The company ranked first in the equity sales list for the first half of the year, with total sales in first-tier cities exceeding 100 billion yuan [4][2] Commercial Property Growth - Commercial property income increased by 19.8% year-on-year to 35.4 billion yuan, with a shopping center occupancy rate of 96.6% and a revenue increase of 57.6% [4][2] - The company has sufficient available funds, with total borrowings of 2555.7 billion yuan and cash on hand of 1002.4 billion yuan [4][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% within the next 6-12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 869.4 billion yuan for 1H24, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103.1 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in profit is attributed to industry downturns, with a gross margin of 22.06%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 1484 billion yuan in 1H24, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, but maintained the highest market share in equity sales [2]. - The company focused on core cities, with 62.7% of total sales coming from four first-tier cities, and set a record for single-day sales in Shanghai [2]. - The financial structure remains robust, with a net debt ratio of 38.7% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.9, while the average financing cost decreased to 3.5% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 209.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.45%, and net profit is expected to be 26.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 4.32% [6]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 4.4, 4.0, and 3.7 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [2][6]. - The report anticipates continued growth in performance due to increased market share and a focus on major urban areas [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for China Overseas Development (0688.HK) [2][4] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 86.94 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.31 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, with an interim dividend of 0.3 HKD per share proposed [3][4] - The company ranked second in overall sales and first in equity sales in the industry, with a market share increase, focusing on key cities where sales from first-tier and key second-tier cities accounted for 83% of total sales [4] - The commercial segment saw a revenue growth of 20% in H1 2024, supported by effective cost control and financial advantages, with an average financing cost of only 3.5% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 180.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [5] - Net profit for 2024E is estimated at 23.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 42.1% [5] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.0% for 2024E [5] Sales and Market Position - The company’s sales price per square meter increased by 21.7% to 27,279 yuan, with significant sales contributions from major cities [4] - The company has a strong cash position with 100.24 billion yuan in cash, representing 11% of total assets, enabling it to seize market opportunities [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 at 2.39, 2.43, and 2.47 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.4, 4.4, and 4.3 times [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain a robust operational performance despite industry challenges, leveraging its brand and operational advantages for potential growth [4]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.28 ——2024 年中期业绩点评 龙头风范，挖掘改善性需求的结构性机会 中国海外发展(0688) [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|----------------------| | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 黄可意(研究助理) | 白淑媛(分析师) | | | 010-83939826 | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518010002 | S0880123070129 | S0880518010004 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： 12.20 [Table_Market] 交易数据 | -- ...

Financial Performance - The group's total revenue was RMB 86.94 billion, with a year-on-year increase in commercial property revenue of 19.8% to RMB 3.54 billion[2]. - The profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 10.31 billion, with a core profit of RMB 10.64 billion, resulting in a basic earnings per share of RMB 0.94[3]. - The group's net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 11.53 billion, compared to RMB 14.21 billion in the same period last year[5]. - The company reported total revenue of RMB 88,979,659 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 92,764,537 thousand for the same period in 2023, indicating a decrease of about 4.23%[12][13]. - The profit from segments, including share of profits and losses from associates and joint ventures, was RMB 16,256,120 thousand for the first half of 2024, compared to RMB 21,035,863 thousand for the same period in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 22.7%[12][13][14]. - The company's profit before tax for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 16,183,761, a decrease of 18.3% compared to RMB 19,815,172 for the same period in 2023[15]. - The total financial expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 4,870,350, down from RMB 5,241,304 in the previous year, reflecting a reduction of 7.1%[16]. - The income tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 4,656,955, compared to RMB 5,603,764 in the same period of 2023, indicating a decrease of 16.8%[17]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share attributable to shareholders for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 10,313,630, down 23.8% from RMB 13,489,777 in 2023[19]. Sales and Revenue - The group's property sales amounted to RMB 148.38 billion, with a corresponding sales area of 5.44 million square meters[2]. - In the first half of 2024, the company's contracted property sales amounted to RMB 148.38 billion, with a market share increase of 0.49 percentage points to 3.15%[25]. - The company focused on first-tier cities, generating RMB 74.4 billion in sales contracts from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, accounting for 62.7% of total sales[25]. - The commercial property revenue grew by 19.8% year-on-year, reaching RMB 3.54 billion in the first half of 2024[25]. - The company reported commercial property revenue of RMB 3.54 billion for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%[37]. - Office building revenue was RMB 1.76 billion, while shopping center revenue surged by 57.6% to RMB 1.11 billion[38]. Assets and Liabilities - The group's total assets less current liabilities amounted to RMB 645.47 billion as of June 30, 2024[6]. - The company's total liabilities and equity amounted to RMB 645,474,448 thousand as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 637,903,574 thousand at the end of 2023, showing an increase of approximately 1.78%[7]. - The company's reserves rose to RMB 304,504,500 thousand as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 298,982,385 thousand at the end of 2023, representing an increase of approximately 1.74%[7]. - Non-current liabilities, including bank and other borrowings due after one year, increased to RMB 153,229,362 thousand from RMB 144,139,899 thousand, marking an increase of about 6.5%[7]. - The company's total land reserve area increased by 1.17 million square meters, bringing the total land reserve to 49.05 million square meters as of June 30, 2024[2]. - The company's total land reserve construction area, including subsidiaries, reached 49.05 million square meters as of June 30, 2024[36]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.30 per share[2]. - The interim dividend declared for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is approximately RMB 2,971,536,000, with a per share dividend of HKD 0.30[20]. - The interim dividend declared is HKD 0.30 per share, down from HKD 0.35 per share in 2023[45]. Financial Position and Ratios - The group's total borrowings stood at RMB 255.57 billion, with cash and bank balances of RMB 100.24 billion, resulting in a net gearing ratio of 38.7%[2]. - The company maintained a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.1% and a net gearing ratio of 38.7%, indicating a strong financial position[26]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 22.1% and a weighted average financing cost of 3.5%, maintaining one of the lowest financing costs in the industry[26][28]. - The company's weighted average financing cost was 3.5%, positioning it within the lowest range in the industry[40]. - The company achieved a net asset value of RMB 376.08 billion and a current ratio of 2.4 times as of June 30, 2024[40]. Debt Management - The company repaid debts totaling RMB 46.87 billion during the first half of 2024, resulting in a net debt repayment of RMB 3.04 billion[40]. - The group reported a bank balance and cash of RMB 100.24 billion, with available funds reaching RMB 144.21 billion[41]. - The proportion of RMB borrowings increased to 74.8%, up 4.5 percentage points from the end of 2023[41]. Sustainability and ESG - The group has committed to reducing carbon emissions intensity by over 30% by 2030, based on 2019 levels[43]. - The group has received the highest ESG ratings from major domestic rating agencies, including AAA from Zhiding and AA from Wind[43]. - The group has added 17 new projects meeting green building standards, totaling 2.22 million square meters, bringing the cumulative total to 653 projects with a total area of 10.9 million square meters[43]. Corporate Governance - The company has complied with the corporate governance code as of June 30, 2024[50]. - The company has adopted a code of conduct for directors regarding securities trading, confirming compliance as of June 30, 2024[51]. - The audit and risk management committee reviewed the unaudited interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2024[52]. - The interim report will be published on the company's website and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at an appropriate time[54].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国海外发展 恒生指数 -40% -32% -23% -15% -6% 2% 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/8 [Table_Market] 交易数据 本报告导读： 投资要点： 52周内股价走势图 [Table_Report] 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|----------------------| | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 黄可意(研究助理) | 白淑媛(分析师) | | | 010-83939826 | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtja ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|房地产Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发地产&海外】中国海外发展 (00688.HK) 6 月销售超预期,23 年核心拿地效果显现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 6 月销售超预期。根据公司经营公告,中海地产(含宏洋)24 年 6 月 销售金额 466.8 亿元,同比+41%,其中中国海外发展贡献 426 亿元, 同比+49%,中国海外宏洋集团贡献 40.8 亿元,同比-12%。24 年上半 年,中海地产、中海发展、中海宏洋销售金额分别为 1484 亿元、1294 亿元、190 亿元,同比分别-18%、-16%、-27%。 ⚫ 6 月红盘集中入市,增加确定性。根据中指院,24 年上半年公司红盘 集中入市,24 年 3 月在上海推出顺昌玖里(高层)首开销售额 197 亿 元,占单月销售的 52%,6 月末集中推出上海领邸玖序、深圳深湾玖 序、北京京华玖序三个"玖"系高端住宅,首开销售额分别为 66、100、 62 亿元,合计销售 228 亿元,占 6 月销售的 54%。此外,公司 6 月末 推出低密产品(顺昌/恒昌玖里)首开 49 套 100 ...