I like everything about the company (their "system”), the way they treat employees, and the way theyStriving to compound knowledge. Long-time fan of Warren and Charlie. Always invert. "To finish first, you must first finish". Investing own and family funds for +20 years. Senior finance roles at public and private corporations for most of that time.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of DLMAF either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this artic ...

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale Corp. has faced significant stock price pressure despite strong earnings, leading to a mixed outlook from analysts and concerns about insider selling [1][4][12]. Financial Performance - Costco reported fiscal Q3 2025 earnings that initially impressed investors, resulting in a 5% stock increase in the two sessions following the release [4]. - The stock has only achieved a 2% year-to-date gain in 2025, contrasting with its performance in 2023 and 2024 [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Following the Q3 earnings report, Costco received both price target boosts and reductions, indicating mixed analyst sentiment [5]. - Analysts at Erste Group Bank downgraded Costco from Buy to Hold, citing high valuation concerns compared to retail peers and anticipated lower sales figures [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - Costco currently trades at over 53 times earnings, with a forward P/E ratio of 52.2, nearly double the industry average of 27 [6]. - The stock's valuation will require continued strong earnings performance to justify its current price levels [6]. Technical Analysis - A "Death Cross" has formed, indicating a bearish momentum shift, as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has fallen below the 200-day SMA [10]. - The stock has struggled to maintain support at these moving averages, suggesting a potential downward trend [11]. Insider Activity - Insider selling has increased significantly over the past year, with notable sales from high-ranking executives, raising concerns among investors [12][16]. - Despite strong earnings, the trend of insider selling may indicate underlying issues within the company [12][17]. Market Position - Costco is currently rated as a Moderate Buy among analysts, but it is not included in the list of top stocks recommended by leading analysts [18].

美国零售巨头沃尔玛和好市多的估值已超越英伟达，投资者对这些"安全股"的盲目信任可能正在酝酿 一场危险的股市修正。 8月27日，彭博社财经评论员Jonathan Levin发表文章指出，当市场的目光都聚焦在英伟达那高昂的股价 上时，一个更隐蔽、或许也更危险的估值泡沫，可能正在好市多和沃尔玛这两家被视为"绝对安全"的零 售巨头身上发生。 作者指出目前沃尔玛和好市多的远期市盈率分别达到34.3倍和47倍，均高于英伟达的34倍。而这两家公 司的股票之所以昂贵，并非完全因为其业务增长前景，而更多是源于一种"安全悖论"。 作者警告说，正如"兴登堡号"飞艇在坠毁前一直保持着近乎完美的飞行记录一样，市场中最惨痛的抛 售，往往发生在那些被人们误以为绝对安全的领域。 估值水平远超合理区间 文章援引数据指出，沃尔玛和好市多的远期市盈率分别高达34.3倍和47倍，而同期英伟达的市盈 率"仅"为34倍。 更重要的是，这种高估值已经严重偏离了它们自身的历史水平。 作者强调沃尔玛当前的市盈率比其过去十年（2015-2024）的平均值高出约3.3个标准差，而好市多也高 出了约1.7个标准差。 用更直白的语言解释就是，这两家公司的股价已经进入 ...

Let's do some more calls. CLSA initiates Micron today. Outperform 155 is the target.Quote, riding the crest of the AI wave. Bill, you own the name. A name that doesn't get discussed all that much to be honest when we talk about the AI wave.>> Not discussed enough. I mean, this this name, I've loved it for a while and it's been our portfolios. Um, high bandwidth memory, you know, faster computing, more efficient computing at a lower power consumption.It's going to be critical here uh in the AI race. and they ...

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with net sales increasing 8% year over year to $62 billion, driven by digital commerce growth [1][9] - E-commerce sales saw a notable 14.8% increase in Q3, with adjusted growth reaching 15.7%, highlighting the company's ability to integrate digital and physical retail [9] Digital Commerce Performance - Digital momentum was evident with website traffic rising 20%, average order value increasing 3%, and Costco Logistics enhancing deliveries of bulky items by 31% [2][9] - Categories such as gold and jewelry, toys, health and beauty, and home furnishings experienced double-digit online gains, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards higher-value digital purchases [2] Growth Initiatives - Costco's partnership with Affirm introduced Buy Now, Pay Later financing, making large-ticket items more accessible [3] - The implementation of personalized product recommendation tools and the expansion of the Costco Next marketplace improved the member experience while maintaining a value-first philosophy [3] Physical Store Performance - Comparable sales across the company rose 5.7%, with U.S. traffic up 5.5%, demonstrating strong performance in physical stores [4] - Membership renewal rates remained high at 92.7% in the U.S. and Canada, indicating sustained customer loyalty despite the growth in digital adoption [4] Overall Business Strategy - Costco's online business is evolving into a significant growth pillar, reinforcing its leadership in both physical retail and digital commerce [5] - The balance between warehouse operations and e-commerce is a key competitive advantage for Costco [4] Comparative Analysis - Costco's e-commerce growth is notable when compared to competitors, with Walmart Inc. reporting a 25% increase in global e-commerce sales and Sprouts Farmers Market achieving 27% growth [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - COST stock has outperformed the industry, with a 7.4% increase over the past year compared to the industry's 3.3% growth [8] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for Costco stands at 48.19, higher than the industry average of 32.34, indicating a premium valuation [11]

Core Insights - The earnings season for retail stocks highlights the disparity in consumer spending between low/middle-income and high-income households due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][2] - Companies like Walmart are experiencing a trade-down effect, where higher-income consumers are opting for value-oriented retailers [2][3] Group 1: Costco Wholesale - Costco has shown strong performance with a total return of over 220% in the last five years, indicating robust stock appreciation and dividend reinvestment [4] - The company's business model relies on an annual membership fee, which provides stable revenue, and it recently raised this fee for the first time in seven years while maintaining a retention rate above 90% [5] - Costco's commitment to expanding its global footprint is expected to drive future revenue and earnings growth, justifying its premium valuation at over 54 times forward earnings [6] Group 2: Ross Stores - Ross Stores caters to budget-conscious consumers seeking value, especially during economic uncertainty, and has a strong performance with a total return of over 72% in the last five years [7][9] - The company anticipates some earnings pressure due to tariffs, as approximately 50% of its inventory is sourced from China, but it maintains solid fundamentals with strong traffic and comparable store sales growth [8] - Analysts have a consensus price target of $159.40 for Ross Stores, indicating that the stock may be fairly priced despite tariff challenges [9] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Both Costco and Ross Stores can coexist in a diversified investment portfolio due to their distinct business models and target consumers [10] - Costco is viewed as a growth stock with defensive characteristics, benefiting from higher-income households' spending [10][11] - Ross Stores represents a cyclical play in retail, appealing to value-oriented shoppers, which is expected to sustain strong traffic and comparable sales [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - After a pullback, the U.S. stock market has shown significant recovery, with small-cap stocks outperforming [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq decreased by 0.6% [3] - Among 18 sectors, 12 experienced gains, with notable increases in banking (+3.2%), automotive (+2.9%), and energy (+2.8%) sectors [3] Price Trends - Small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) rose by 4.1%, outperforming small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth +2.6%) and large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value +1.7%) [3] - The report highlights that 18 sectors saw price increases, while 6 sectors faced declines, with the largest declines in food and staples retailing (-2.0%) and software and services (-1.9%) [3] Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was +1.7 billion USD this week, a significant decrease from +75.8 billion USD the previous week [4] - Notable inflows were observed in automotive (+11.0 million USD), diversified financials (+4.6 million USD), and banking (+3.8 million USD) sectors [4] - Conversely, significant outflows were recorded in software and services (-29.9 million USD) and semiconductor products and equipment (-7.7 million USD) [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward revision in the 12-month forward EPS expectations for S&P 500 constituents, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - 21 sectors saw upward revisions in earnings expectations, with the semiconductor sector leading with a +1.2% increase [5]

Core Insights - Rising inflation is expected to benefit both Walmart and Costco as consumers seek low-price options [2][3][11] - Walmart has a larger market cap of $778 billion compared to Costco's $441 billion, with Walmart operating over 10,000 stores globally [5] - Costco's membership model contributes significantly to its profits, with membership fees accounting for about 65% of net income [9] Financial Performance - Walmart's total revenue for fiscal 2024 was $648 billion, with adjusted earnings per share increasing by 5.7% to $6.65 [8] - Costco reported a 6.7% increase in U.S. net sales to nearly $238 billion for fiscal 2023, with membership fees rising by 8% to $4.58 billion [9] - Costco's stock rose 63% in the 52 weeks following its earnings release, while Walmart shares climbed 66% in the same period [8][10] Market Position and Strategy - Walmart managed to keep grocery price increases to 3% during a period of 6% to 9.1% inflation, outperforming competitors like Amazon and Kroger [7] - Costco's membership-driven model provides stability during inflationary periods, as evidenced by a 10.4% increase in membership fee income in its recent quarter [10] - Analysts expect Costco to increase earnings per share by 10% for the current quarter, while Walmart's recent earnings report was slightly disappointing [12][13] Future Outlook - Both companies are well-positioned to thrive amid rising grocery prices, but Costco's membership model may offer a more advantageous position given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [14]

Core Insights - Costco has successfully established itself in the Chinese market over the past six years, leveraging its unique membership model and high-quality product offerings to enhance consumer shopping experiences [1][12] - The company has expanded its store presence to seven locations across six cities in mainland China, demonstrating a strong growth trajectory since its first store opening in Shanghai [4][12] Expansion Strategy - The first Costco store in mainland China opened in Shanghai on August 27, 2019, with a shopping area of nearly 14,000 square meters and over 1,000 parking spaces, attracting significant customer traffic [2] - Following the successful launch, Costco opened its first store in Shenzhen in January 2024, achieving a remarkable membership registration of 140,000 prior to the opening [2][4] Operational Excellence - Costco's expansion in China is supported by precise site selection and refined operational strategies, resulting in a solid foundation for growth [4] - The company has introduced unique services, such as the first Costco member-only gas station in Nanjing, which offers self-service fueling at discounted prices [4] Global Sourcing and Pricing Strategy - Costco employs a global sourcing strategy that ensures popular international products are available in China, while also providing opportunities for local products to reach global markets [5] - The company maintains a strict gross margin cap of 14% on all products, ensuring competitive pricing through a robust global procurement system and partnerships with leading manufacturers [5] Enhanced Member Services - In response to the growing demand for efficient online shopping, Costco launched a home delivery service in 2024, offering same-day delivery within 90 minutes in select cities [6] - The online platform features a wide range of products, including food, personal care, electronics, and large appliances, allowing members to enjoy a seamless shopping experience [6] Private Label Strategy - Costco has maintained a high standard for supplier management, offering around 4,000 carefully selected global products while adapting its offerings to local consumer preferences [7] - The company has localized some of its private label products, such as Kirkland Signature, to reduce costs while ensuring quality comparable to mainstream brands [7] Commitment to Sustainability - Costco emphasizes sustainable practices, such as reducing plastic use in packaging and offering products certified by international organizations for environmental responsibility [10] - The company’s products, including Kirkland kitchen paper and seafood, adhere to sustainability certifications, ensuring traceability and environmental stewardship [10][12] Future Outlook - China is a key market for Costco, and the company aims to continue expanding its store footprint while enhancing member value through a combination of global procurement and local innovation [12] - The company plans to deepen its market trust through a sustainable product strategy and an integrated online-offline shopping experience [12]

Core Insights - The sales revenue of China's top 100 supermarket companies reached approximately 900 billion RMB, reflecting a slight growth of 0.3%, while the total number of stores decreased significantly by 9.8% to 25,200 stores, indicating transformation challenges in the supermarket industry due to diversified consumer trends and e-commerce impacts [1] - Only 14 companies achieved both sales and store number growth, showcasing a stark polarization in performance within the industry [1] - Notable companies in the lower half of the ranking include Chongqing Department Store, Costco (China), Tianhong Digital Technology, Pang Donglai, and Beiguo Mall, with Pang Donglai achieving sales of approximately 8.094 billion RMB and 12 stores, recognized for its exceptional customer service [1] Group 1 - The top ten companies include Walmart (China), RT-Mart, Hema, Yonghui Superstores, and Wumart, with Walmart leading at a sales scale of 158.84 billion RMB and 334 stores [4][5] - Hema's innovative business model resulted in a sales revenue of approximately 75 billion RMB and 420 stores, with plans to open nearly 100 new stores in over 50 new cities this year [5] - Lianhua Supermarket achieved sales of approximately 48.64 billion RMB with 3,152 stores, focusing on providing a rich selection of goods and creating a convenient shopping experience [5] Group 2 - Jibai Holdings, Lihua Group, Henan Dazhang, Aeon (China), and Guangzhou Yichulai ranked 11th to 15th, with Jibai Holdings reporting a sales scale of approximately 12.06 billion RMB and 3,179 stores [2] - The performance of the top 100 supermarket companies highlights the competitive landscape, where only a few have successfully adapted to market changes and consumer preferences [1][2]