Core Insights - Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) is a leading manufacturer in the agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery sectors, recognized for its green and yellow equipment and strong global market presence [1] - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $3.93 for the fiscal fourth quarter, exceeding the estimated $3.85, indicating strong profitability despite a decline in stock price influenced by market factors [2][6] - Revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter reached approximately $12.4 billion, surpassing the estimated $11.8 billion, reflecting robust sales performance [3][6] Financial Metrics - The price-to-sales ratio is about 3.10, indicating that investors value each dollar of sales highly, reflecting confidence in the company's revenue-generating capabilities [3] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is around 4.44, showing the total valuation relative to sales, while the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is approximately 22.53, emphasizing operational efficiency [4] - The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 2.65, indicating a higher reliance on debt for financing compared to equity, but the current ratio of around 2.31 suggests strong liquidity to cover short-term liabilities [5][6]

Core Insights - Deere & Company reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings of $3.93 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.96, with a 14% decrease from the prior-year quarter due to higher production costs and tariff impacts offsetting gains from increased volumes [1][10] - Net sales of equipment operations reached $10.6 billion, up 14% year over year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.99 billion, while total net sales were $12.4 billion, an 11% increase year over year [2][10] Financial Performance - The cost of sales increased by 21% year over year to $7.94 billion, leading to a total gross profit decrease of 2.7% to $4.45 billion [3] - Selling, administrative, and general expenses rose by 3.6% to $1.28 billion compared to the prior-year period, resulting in total operating profit (including financial services) dipping 7% year over year to $1.35 billion [3] Segment Performance - Production & Precision Agriculture segment sales rose 10% year over year to $4.74 billion, beating estimates, but operating profit decreased 8% to $604 million due to higher production costs [4] - Small Agriculture & Turf sales increased 7% to $2.46 billion, with operating profit slumping 89% to $25 million due to higher warranty expenses and tariffs [5] - Construction & Forestry sales were $3.38 billion, up 27% year over year, with operating profit increasing 6% to $237 million despite increased production costs [6] Financial Services - Revenues in the Financial Services division were $1.55 billion, up 2% year over year, with net income rising to $293 million from $173 million in the prior-year quarter due to favorable financing spreads and lower provisions for credit losses [7] Cash and Debt Position - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of fiscal 2025 were $8.28 billion, up from $7.32 billion at the end of fiscal 2024, while cash flow from operating activities decreased to $7.5 billion from $9.23 billion [8] Fiscal Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Deere expects net income between $4.00 billion and $4.75 billion, with net sales for Production & Precision Agriculture projected to decrease by 5-10%, while Small Agriculture & Turf sales are expected to rise by 10% and Construction & Forestry sales by 10% [12] Stock Performance - Deere shares have gained 5.7% over the past year, outperforming the industry's growth of 4.5% [13]

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Co has indicated a significant increase in tariff impacts for 2026, forecasting annual profits below market expectations due to weaker margins on large tractors, resulting in a 5% drop in share prices [1] Financial Forecast - The company anticipates a pre-tax tariff impact of approximately $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026, up from nearly $600 million in 2025 [2] - Annual net income for fiscal 2026 is projected to be between $4.00 billion and $4.75 billion, which is below analysts' estimates of $5.33 billion [3] Quarterly Performance - For the latest quarter, Deere reported a net income of $1.06 billion, or $3.93 per share, down from $1.24 billion, or $4.55 per share, in the same period last year [4] - The fourth-quarter revenue increased by 11% to approximately $12.4 billion, exceeding estimates of $9.85 billion [4] Market Conditions - Lower crop prices and rising production costs have led farmers to postpone significant purchases, opting instead for rentals or pre-owned equipment [2] - The company is exploring production shifts, higher pricing, and expanding its used equipment portfolio to mitigate weak demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - Deer reported earnings that exceeded estimates on both revenue and profit, but the stock is declining due to weak guidance for the upcoming year, particularly in agriculture sectors [1][19]. Earnings Report Summary - The earnings report showed a recovery in volumes and pricing realization, but investors are primarily concerned about the guidance for 2026, which is perceived as weak [2][3]. - Analysts had anticipated a recovery in earnings, but the guidance indicates that recovery is not expected until the 2027 fiscal year [5][19]. Market Conditions - Approximately 70% of Deer’s sales come from North America, where farmers are facing challenges due to tariffs and low commodity prices, leading to a subdued market outlook [4][6]. - Current prices for key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat remain low despite record harvest yields, which negatively impacts farmer income and, consequently, demand for Deer’s products [7][8]. Investment Thesis - The investment thesis suggests that Deer must manage tariff costs effectively and see a recovery in market fundamentals to improve outlook. Current government stimulus is unlikely to drive significant demand [6][8]. - There is skepticism regarding the U.S.-China trade relationship, as past agreements have not always been honored, which poses risks for Deer’s agricultural sales [12][13]. Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Analysts maintain a sell rating on Deer, with a price target of $400, indicating a significant downside from the current trading price of around $470 [5][19]. - The stock is viewed as neutral to bearish, with strategies being considered to profit from potential declines or stability in stock price [16][18].

Economic Indicators - Pre-market futures are showing positive movement, with major indices like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all up, indicating a strong trading day [1] - Weekly Jobless Claims reported at 216K, below expectations of 225K, suggesting a resilient job market [4] - Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, while non-defense, ex-aircraft durable goods orders rose by 0.9%, indicating potential growth in business spending [6] Company Performance - Deere & Co. reported fiscal Q4 results, missing earnings estimates by 3 cents at $3.93 per share, marking the first earnings miss in three years, although revenues exceeded expectations by 5.92% at $10.58 billion [7] - Shares of Deere & Co. are trading down 3.5% following the earnings report, despite a year-to-date gain of 17.6% [7] Consumer Behavior - An estimated 31 million people are expected to travel for Thanksgiving, indicating strong consumer spending on travel despite the performance of major airlines [8]

Economic Indicators - Pre-market futures are positive, with major indices showing gains: Dow +77 points, S&P 500 +18, Nasdaq +107 points, and Russell 2000 flat after a +2% increase the previous day [1] - Weekly Jobless Claims reported at 216K, below expectations of 225K, indicating a resilient job market [4][3] - Continuing Claims total 1.960 million, slightly up from the previous week's revised figure, suggesting stability in longer-term jobless claims [4][5] - Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, while orders excluding transportation rose by 0.6% [6] Company Performance - Deere & Co. reported fiscal Q4 results, missing earnings estimates by 3 cents at $3.93 per share, marking the first earnings miss in three years, although revenues exceeded expectations by 5.92% at $10.58 billion [8] - Shares of Deere are trading down 3.5% following the earnings report, despite a year-to-date gain of 17.6% [8] Consumer Behavior - An estimated 31 million people are expected to travel for Thanksgiving, indicating strong consumer spending on travel despite the economic climate [9]

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Co.'s first outlook for the upcoming fiscal year is below expectations, with net income projected between $4 billion and $4.75 billion, falling short of the average estimate of $5.31 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net income for Deere & Co. is between $4 billion and $4.75 billion for the fiscal year starting November 1 [1] - This outlook has led to a decline in shares by as much as 4.6% before regular trading commenced in New York [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The weak outlook is attributed to challenges faced by farmers, including low crop prices and the impact of tariff policies [2] - Despite a recent trade deal between the US and China aimed at increasing American crop shipments to Asia, uncertainty remains regarding its effectiveness in revitalizing the US farm economy [2] Group 3: Industry Sentiment - Rival manufacturer CNH Industrial NV has expressed concerns about the ambiguity of the trade deal, which contributes to uncertainty in the sector regarding farmer spending [3] - There is a belief within the industry that the resumption of US crop imports by China and an upcoming aid package for American farmers may provide support in 2026 [3]

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Core Viewpoint - Deere & Co. reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for Q4 2025, but the stock fell 4% due to weaker guidance for 2026, leading to investor disappointment [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Deere earned $3.93 per share, exceeding the forecast of $3.83, and reported sales of $12.9 billion, which was 32% higher than the expected $9.8 billion [1]. - Year-over-year earnings declined by 14%, despite an 11% increase in sales [3]. - For the full year, Deere's earnings were $18.50 per share, a 28% decline, with total sales down 12% to $45.7 billion [3]. Future Outlook - Deere provided a cautious outlook for 2026, predicting a potential 20% decline in "large ag" sales, while other segments may see low-to-mid single-digit growth [4]. - The company anticipates earnings of less than $17.60 per share in fiscal 2026, which is below Wall Street's expectation of $19.32 per share [4][6]. - CEO John May indicated that 2026 might mark the bottom of the large ag cycle, with expectations for improvement thereafter [5]. Market Reaction - Despite beating earnings and sales expectations, the stock selloff was driven by the disappointing guidance for 2026 and a high valuation of 27 times earnings [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In fiscal year 2025, net sales and revenues decreased by 12% to $45.7 billion, while net sales for equipment operations fell by 13% to $38.9 billion [8][12] - Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $5 billion, or $18.50 per diluted share [8][12] - For the fourth quarter, net sales and revenues increased by 11% to $12.4 billion, and net sales for equipment operations rose by 14% to $10.6 billion [8][12] - Net income for the fourth quarter decreased to $1.1 billion, or $3.93 per diluted share [8][12] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production and Precision Ag segment saw net sales of $4.74 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 12.7% [9] - Small Ag and Turf segment reported net sales of $2.57 billion, up 7% year-over-year, but operating profit declined to $25 million due to higher costs [10] - Construction and Forestry segment's net sales increased by 27% year-over-year to $3.382 billion, with an operating margin of 10.3% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industry sales of large equipment in the U.S. and Canada are expected to decline by 15%-20% in fiscal year 2026, while small ag and turf demand is estimated to be flat to up 5% [10][11] - In Europe, the industry is projected to be flat to up 5%, with robust dairy sector margins [11][46] - South America is expected to see flat industry sales, with Brazilian demand tempered by high interest rates and strong global crop yields [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to manage inventory carefully and avoid oversupply while focusing on used inventory reduction [37] - Deere is committed to advancing its smart industrial journey, emphasizing technology and innovation across all production systems [19][23] - The company anticipates growth in small ag and turf, as well as construction and forestry, while entering North American large ag with lean production [67] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about stabilization in certain segments and geographies, despite challenges in large ag [7][8] - The company highlighted strong crop use and supportive government payments as potential upside factors [10][41] - Management acknowledged the resilience of the organization amidst a challenging market backdrop, with a focus on long-term customer value [19][67] Other Important Information - The company expects full-year net income for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $4 billion to $4.75 billion, with an effective tax rate between 25%-27% [17] - Cash flow from equipment operations is projected to be between $4 billion and $5 billion [17] - The company plans to resume normal capital allocation activities in 2026 after pausing buybacks in Q4 due to market uncertainty [67] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about offsetting the $1.2 billion tariff headwind in 2026? - The company expects to capture back some of the incremental exposure through price-cost positive expectations and will continue to execute activities to mitigate the impact [73][74] Question: Can you provide insights on the production plans and product mix implications for seasonality? - The company anticipates lower than normal seasonal production to start the year, with flexibility to adjust to demand in subsequent quarters [51][44]