Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan reported a revenue of $5.73 billion for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.4% and an EPS of $0.24, down from $0.32 a year ago, but exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.31 billion by 7.92% [1] Financial Performance - The company’s stock has returned -15.2% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which declined by -5.1% [3] - Freeport-McMoRan holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Key Metrics - Average realized price per pound of copper was $4.44, surpassing the average estimate of $4.36 [4] - Molybdenum production in South America (Cerro Verde) was 6 million pounds, exceeding the estimate of 5.82 million pounds [4] - Molybdenum by-product production in North America reached 8 million pounds, above the estimate of 7.73 million pounds [4] - Gold sales in North America totaled 3,000 ounces, below the estimate of 3,870 ounces [4] - Consolidated gold sales were 128,000 ounces, slightly above the estimate of 126,130 ounces [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Indonesia was $1.57 billion, significantly higher than the estimate of $1.31 billion, but down 44.4% year-over-year [4] - Molybdenum revenues were $177 million, below the estimate of $261.94 million, but up 22.1% year-over-year [4] - Revenues from South America copper mines were $1.38 billion, exceeding the estimate of $1.29 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 21.1% [4] - North America copper mines generated $1.63 billion, slightly above the estimate of $1.56 billion, reflecting an 8.5% year-over-year increase [4] - Rod & Refining revenues were $1.63 billion, surpassing the estimate of $1.49 billion, with an 8.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Atlantic Copper Smelting & Refining revenues reached $755 million, above the estimate of $708.34 million, with a 12.2% year-over-year increase [4] - Corporate, other & eliminations reported revenues of -$1.41 billion, worse than the estimate of -$1.32 billion, reflecting a -3.2% year-over-year change [4]

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported a decline in net income and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings per share meeting expectations while operational performance showed significant decreases in copper and gold production [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net income attributable to common stock was $352 million, or 24 cents per share, down approximately 25.6% from $473 million, or 32 cents per share, in the same quarter last year [1]. - Revenues decreased roughly 9.4% year over year to $5,728 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,307.6 million [1]. Operational Highlights - Copper production fell around 20% year over year to 868 million pounds, missing the estimate of 872 million pounds [2]. - Consolidated sales of copper declined approximately 21.2% year over year to 872 million pounds, exceeding the estimate of 850 million pounds [2]. - Gold sales dropped around 77.5% year over year to 128,000 ounces, while molybdenum sales remained stable at 20 million pounds [2]. Cost and Pricing - Consolidated average unit net cash costs per pound of copper increased to $2.07 from $1.51 a year ago, beating the estimate of $2.05 [3]. - The average realized price for copper rose approximately 12.7% year over year to $4.44 per pound, surpassing the estimate of $4.40 [3]. - The average realized price per ounce for gold increased around 43.2% year over year to $3,072, exceeding the estimate of $2,700 [3]. Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $4,385 million, down around 15.8% year over year [4]. - Total debt was $9,404 million, declining about 0.2% year over year [4]. - Cash flows from operations were approximately $1.1 billion, down 42.1% year over year [4]. Guidance - FCX anticipates total operating cash flow for 2025 to be around $7 billion, including approximately $0.2 billion from working capital and other sources [5]. - Capital spending for 2025 is projected to be around $5 billion, with $2.8 billion allocated to major mining projects and $0.6 billion for new downstream processing facilities [5]. Sales Forecast - FCX expects consolidated sales of approximately 4 billion pounds of copper, 1.6 million ounces of gold, and 88 million pounds of molybdenum for 2025, including specific targets for the second quarter [6]. Stock Performance - Freeport's shares have declined 28.8% over the past year, compared to a 26.9% decline in the industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan reported quarterly earnings of $0.24 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but down from $0.32 per share a year ago [1] - The company generated revenues of $5.73 billion for the quarter, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.92%, but lower than the $6.32 billion reported a year ago [2] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for the latest quarter were $0.24, consistent with expectations, while the previous quarter's actual EPS was $0.31, resulting in a surprise of 29.17% [1] - Over the last four quarters, Freeport-McMoRan has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times [1] - The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] Stock Performance - Freeport-McMoRan shares have declined approximately 7.6% year-to-date, compared to a decline of 8.6% for the S&P 500 [3] - The stock's immediate price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call [3] Future Outlook - Current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.52 on revenues of $6.82 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.61 on revenues of $26.33 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Freeport-McMoRan is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Mining - Non Ferrous industry is currently in the top 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - First-quarter 2025 net income attributable to common stock totaled $352 million, or $0.24 per share, with adjusted net income at $358 million, also $0.24 per share [3]. - Revenues for Q1 2025 were $5,728 million, a decrease of 9.4% compared to $6,321 million in Q1 2024 [95]. - Operating income decreased to $1,303 million in Q1 2025 from $1,634 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decline of 20.2% [95]. - Net income attributable to common stockholders was $352 million, down 25.6% from $473 million in the same period last year [95]. - Diluted net income per share attributable to common stock was $0.24, compared to $0.32 in Q1 2024, representing a decrease of 25% [95]. - Total current assets increased to $13,802 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $13,296 million at the end of 2024 [97]. - Cash and cash equivalents rose to $4,385 million from $3,923 million, indicating a growth of 11.8% [97]. - Net cash provided by operating activities was $1,058 million, a decrease of 44.1% compared to $1,896 million in Q1 2024 [99]. - Total assets increased to $56,022 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $54,848 million at the end of 2024 [97]. - Total liabilities rose to $26,808 million from $26,070 million, reflecting an increase of 2.8% [97]. Production and Sales - Consolidated production in Q1 2025 included 868 million pounds of copper, 287 thousand ounces of gold, and 23 million pounds of molybdenum [2]. - In Q1 2025, FCX's U.S. copper production was 301 million pounds, a decrease from 314 million pounds in Q1 2024, with sales of 307 million pounds compared to 331 million pounds in the prior year [31][32]. - In South America, FCX's copper production was 271 million pounds in Q1 2025, down from 280 million pounds in Q1 2024, with sales of 275 million pounds compared to 284 million pounds [39][41]. - FCX's copper production for Q1 2025 was 592 million recoverable pounds, a decrease of 15.7% compared to 702 million pounds in Q1 2024 [89]. - The company reported a copper recovery rate of 84.1% in U.S. mill operations for Q1 2025, an improvement from 81.0% in Q1 2024 [92]. - Copper sales from South America operations were 284 million recoverable pounds, while Indonesia operations sold 290 million recoverable pounds [149][152]. Costs and Expenditures - Operating cash flows for Q1 2025 totaled $1.1 billion, with expectations of approximately $7.0 billion for the full year [2]. - Capital expenditures in Q1 2025 were $1.2 billion, with an expected total of $5.0 billion for the year, including $2.8 billion for major mining projects [2]. - Consolidated average unit net cash costs for copper in Q1 2025 were $2.07 per pound, higher than the previous year's $1.51 per pound, but expected to decline to $1.50 per pound for the year [11][13]. - FCX's average unit net cash costs for U.S. copper mines increased to $3.11 per pound in Q1 2025 from $2.98 per pound in Q1 2024, reflecting higher labor costs and lower production volumes [33]. - The average realized price per pound of copper for U.S. operations in Q1 2025 was $4.60, which is approximately 16% higher than the $3.96 in Q1 2024 [31]. - Unit net cash costs for copper were $0.64 per pound in Q1 2025, compared to net cash credits of $0.12 per pound in Q1 2024, reflecting lower sales volumes [58]. Market and Pricing - Average realized prices in Q1 2025 were $4.44 per pound for copper, $3,072 per ounce for gold, and $21.67 per pound for molybdenum [2]. - The average realized price per pound of copper increased to $4.44 in Q1 2025 from $3.94 in Q1 2024, reflecting a 12.7% increase [89]. - FCX's average realized price per ounce of gold rose to $3,072 in Q1 2025 from $2,145 in Q1 2024, marking an increase of 43.3% [89]. - FCX estimates that each $0.05 change in the price realized from the quarter-end provisional price would have an approximate $18 million effect on 2025 revenues [116]. Strategic Initiatives - The new smelter in Indonesia is on track for start-up by mid-2025, contributing to organic growth opportunities [2]. - FCX is monitoring potential U.S. tariffs that could increase costs by approximately 5%, while also evaluating alternative sourcing options [16]. - FCX is targeting an annual run rate of 300 million pounds of copper by the end of 2025 from operational enhancements and innovative technology applications [24]. - FCX plans to submit an environmental impact statement for the El Abra project by year-end 2025, which could support an additional 750 million pounds of copper production per year [37][38]. - PTFI, a subsidiary of FCX, is expected to produce approximately 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.4 million ounces of gold annually from its underground operations in Indonesia [50]. Shareholder Returns - FCX has repurchased 51 million shares for a total cost of $2.0 billion under its $5.0 billion share repurchase program [2]. - The Board declared cash dividends of $0.15 per share on March 26, 2025, to be paid on May 1, 2025 [77]. - FCX repurchased 2.3 million shares for $80 million in Q1 2025, bringing total repurchases under its $5.0 billion program to 51 million shares for $2.0 billion [78][79].

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) and Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) are significant players in the copper mining industry, both facing challenges from fluctuating copper prices and global economic uncertainties, particularly due to U.S.-China trade tensions [1][2] Group 1: Company Fundamentals - FCX has high-quality copper assets and is focused on organic growth opportunities, including a large-scale concentrator expansion at Cerro Verde in Peru, which adds approximately 600 million pounds of copper annually [4] - Southern Copper has a robust pipeline of greenfield projects with a capital investment program exceeding $15 billion for this decade, targeting significant projects in Mexico and Peru [9][10] - FCX generated operating cash flows of around $1.4 billion in Q4 2024, with full-year cash flows climbing 35% year-over-year to $7.2 billion, and ended 2024 with $3.9 billion in cash [6] - SCCO generated net cash from operating activities of $4.42 billion in 2024, a 24% increase from $3.57 billion in 2023, supported by higher net income [12] Group 2: Production and Growth Projections - FCX is evaluating a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile and conducting pre-feasibility studies in Arizona to define significant sulfide expansion opportunities [4] - Southern Copper targets copper production of 967,000 tons for 2025, maintaining production levels from the previous year, with growth expected from higher production in Peru [11] - FCX's expansion activities are expected to boost production capacity, while SCCO is committed to increasing low-cost production [23] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - FCX offers a dividend yield of approximately 0.9% with a payout ratio of 20% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 21.8% [7] - SCCO provides a healthier dividend yield of 3.2% with a payout ratio of 65% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 13.4% [12] - FCX is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.95X, representing a 4.2% premium over the industry average of 18.19X, while SCCO trades at 19.66X [16][19] Group 4: Cost Challenges - FCX's consolidated unit net cash costs per pound of copper for Q4 2024 were 9% higher than the previous year, with expectations of a 5% increase in Q1 2025 due to higher labor and mining costs [8] - Southern Copper experienced a 3% year-over-year increase in total operating costs and expenses in 2024, primarily due to rising labor costs and inflation for repair materials [13] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Both FCX and SCCO present compelling investment cases, with FCX having a slight edge due to more attractive valuation and higher earnings growth projections [23]

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, influenced by higher unit costs but benefiting from increased copper prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX's first-quarter earnings is 24 cents per share, reflecting a 25% year-over-year decline [2]. - Revenue estimates stand at $5.31 billion, indicating a 16% decline year-over-year [2]. - FCX has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 15.2% [3]. Price and Cost Dynamics - Copper prices rebounded significantly in the first quarter, closing at around $5 per pound, a nearly 25% increase, with a record high of $5.24 per pound in late March 2025 [5][6]. - The average realized price for copper for FCX is estimated at $4.40 per pound, marking an 11.7% year-over-year rise [6][7]. - Higher unit net cash costs for copper are anticipated, with estimates for the first quarter being roughly 5% higher than previous guidance of $2.05 per pound [8]. Market Performance - FCX's shares have declined by 31.3% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry's decline of 29.8% and contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of 4.6% [9]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.35X, slightly above the peer group average of 18.15X [12]. Strategic Positioning - FCX is well-positioned with high-quality copper assets and is focused on advancing organic growth opportunities [15]. - The company has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, enabling it to finance growth projects and pay down debt [15]. - Despite facing headwinds from higher costs, FCX's financial health supports its dividend reliability and profitability [15][16]. Investment Outlook - FCX is expected to benefit from expansion activities that will enhance production capacity [17]. - However, declining earnings estimates and high production costs suggest a cautious approach for investors [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of inflation expectations on commodity prices, particularly gold and copper, and highlights Freeport-McMoRan as a potential investment opportunity due to its stock being undervalued compared to its recent highs [1][2][7]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against rising inflation, leading to significant price increases in the precious metal [2]. - Copper is also experiencing price increases, driven not only by inflation expectations but also by anticipated economic expansion, making it a key indicator of economic activity [3][4]. - The United States Copper Index Fund has outperformed the S&P 500 by 19% over the past quarter, indicating strong investor interest in copper-related investments [6]. Group 2: Freeport-McMoRan Investment Potential - Freeport-McMoRan's stock is currently trading at 60% of its 52-week high, presenting an attractive risk-to-reward ratio for investors [7]. - Wall Street analysts have set a consensus price target of $48.4 per share for Freeport-McMoRan, suggesting a potential upside of 47.1% from recent lows [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Freeport-McMoRan are expected to rise to $0.45 for Q2 2025, a 25% increase from the current $0.36, indicating potential for earnings beats in upcoming quarters [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The changing global trade landscape due to new tariffs may lead to a redeployment of resources in the U.S. economy, which could further benefit copper prices [5]. - China's ongoing economic stimulus is expected to positively impact GDP activity, which will likely be reflected in copper prices first [6].

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, with analysts predicting earnings of $0.24 per share, a 25% decrease year-over-year, and revenues of $5.31 billion, reflecting a 16% decline compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 9.8% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Indonesia' at $1.31 billion, a decrease of 53.6% from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Revenues- Molybdenum' are expected to reach $261.94 million, showing an increase of 80.7% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenues- South America copper mines' are projected at $1.29 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 13.9% [5]. - 'Revenues- North America copper mines' are forecasted to be $1.56 billion, reflecting a 3.9% increase year-over-year [6]. Production and Sales Estimates - 'Production in millions of pounds - Molybdenum - South America (Cerro Verde)' is expected to be 5.82 Mlbs, up from 3 Mlbs in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Production in millions of pounds - Molybdenum - By-product - North America' is estimated at 7.73 Mlbs, compared to 7 Mlbs reported in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Sales in thousands of Ounces - Gold - North America' are projected at 3.87 Koz, down from 4 Koz in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Sales in thousands of ounces - Gold - Consolidated basis' are expected to reach 126.13 Koz, significantly lower than 568 Koz reported in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Sales in thousands of Ounces - Gold - Indonesia' are estimated at 122.25 Koz, down from 564 Koz year-over-year [9]. - 'Sales in millions of pounds - Copper - Total South America' are projected at 281.86 Mlbs, slightly lower than 284 Mlbs reported in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Sales in millions of pounds - Copper - Indonesia - Grasberg' are expected to be 242.98 Mlbs, down from 493 Mlbs year-over-year [10]. Stock Performance - Freeport-McMoRan shares have decreased by 19.2% over the past month, contrasting with a 6.9% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [11].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Freeport-McMoRan due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected on April 24, 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.24, reflecting a 25% decrease year-over-year [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $5.31 billion, down 16% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 9.79% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from the consensus estimate, with positive readings being more predictive [7][8]. - Freeport-McMoRan currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Freeport-McMoRan exceeded the expected EPS of $0.24 by delivering $0.31, resulting in a surprise of +29.17% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Conclusion - While Freeport-McMoRan does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, other factors should be considered for investment decisions ahead of the earnings release [16].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold has been one of the best-performing assets over the last 12 months, increasing by approximately 29% [1] - The price of gold has climbed an average of 9.7% over the last 25 years, although it underperforms compared to the SPY ETF's 27% annual return [2] - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation, maintaining its value during economic uncertainty [2] Group 2: Gold Mining Stocks - Newmont Corporation, the world's largest gold miner, has a current stock price of $56.57 with a 12-month price forecast of $54.55, indicating a potential downside of 3.57% [5] - Newmont's revenue and earnings saw significant year-over-year growth in 2024, benefiting from rising gold prices, with expectations for continued performance in 2025 [6] - Freeport-McMoRan, while not primarily a gold miner, has gold accounting for about 14% of its revenue, with a current stock price of $33.33 and a 12-month price forecast of $48.39, suggesting a 45.20% upside [7][8] - Barrick Gold, another major player, has a current stock price of $20.91 and a 12-month price forecast of $24.21, indicating a 15.77% upside, with significant exposure to gold [11][12]