Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to increase by +5% year-over-year, with revenues up by +3.9%, marking a significant deceleration from previous growth trends [1][6] - If the +5% earnings growth is realized, it will be the lowest growth rate since Q3 2023, which had a +4.3% growth rate [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Since early April, Q2 earnings estimates have declined for 14 out of 16 Zacks sectors, with the most significant cuts in Conglomerates, Autos, Transportation, Energy, Basic Materials, and Construction sectors [3] - The Tech and Finance sectors, which contribute over 50% of S&P 500 earnings, have also seen cuts in estimates, although the Tech sector's revisions have stabilized recently [4][9] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - FedEx is expected to report earnings of $5.94 per share on revenues of $21.7 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of +9.8% in earnings and -1.9% in revenues [19] - Nike's expectations for its quarterly release indicate a decline of -89.1% in EPS and -15.4% in revenues compared to the same period last year, attributed to stale product lines and inventory issues [21] - Micron Technology is projected to report earnings of $1.57 per share on revenues of $8.81 billion, with year-over-year changes of +153.2% in earnings and +29.3% in revenues, driven by strong demand in high-bandwidth memory [24] Group 4: Early Earnings Season Results - So far, 9 S&P 500 members have reported fiscal May-quarter results, showing total earnings up +2.4% year-over-year on +7.9% revenue gains, with 77.8% of these companies beating EPS estimates [25]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is set to report its fiscal Q4 '25 results on June 24th, which is anticipated to provide insights into the company's performance amidst a challenging market environment [2] Company Performance - FedEx's stock has declined by 20% year-to-date in '25 [2] - Over the last twelve months, the stock has decreased by 7.77% [2]

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Group 1 - FedEx is scheduled to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on June 24, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $5.86 per share and sales of $21.8 billion, an increase from $5.41 per share and $22.1 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $54 billion and reported $88 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $6.0 billion and a net income of $3.9 billion [4] - Historically, FedEx's stock has shown varied reactions to earnings announcements, with positive one-day returns occurring in 50% of instances, yielding a median increase of 6.6%, while negative returns also occurred in 50% of cases, with a median decrease of 4.8% [2][8] Group 2 - There are 20 earnings data points logged over the past five years, with an equal split of 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, maintaining a consistent 50% probability of positive returns over the last three years [8] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be utilized for trading strategies, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Corporation (FDX) is expected to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on June 24, 2025, with earnings estimated at $5.94 per share, reflecting a 9.8% increase year-over-year, while revenues are projected at $21.7 billion, indicating a 1.9% decline from the previous year [1][2][8]. Earnings Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FDX's fourth-quarter earnings has been revised downward by 1.5% in the past 60 days [2]. - FDX has a mixed earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of -5.79% across recent quarters [3][4]. Revenue and Demand Factors - Average daily shipments are expected to be negatively impacted by weak demand, adverse weather conditions, and recession fears due to tariff-related tensions [5]. - The Express unit, FDX's largest segment, is projected to see a revenue decline of 3.2% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 [6][8]. Cost Management Initiatives - Cost-reduction initiatives under the DRIVE program are anticipated to lower salary and operating expenses by 2.1% and 4.4%, respectively, compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The DRIVE program aims for $4 billion in cost savings by fiscal 2025 through improved efficiencies and technology-focused consolidation [16]. Stock Performance and Valuation - FDX shares have declined 17.1% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, slightly underperforming the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's decline of 16.9% [11]. - FDX is trading at a discount based on forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) compared to the industry average and UPS, with a Value Score of B [13]. Shareholder Returns - In June 2025, FedEx raised its quarterly dividend by 5.1% to $1.45 per share, indicating a commitment to rewarding shareholders despite current challenges [17]. Long-term Outlook - The company has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.7%, which is higher than the industry's 9.1%, suggesting strong potential despite current market uncertainties [18].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect FedEx to report quarterly earnings of $5.94 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, while revenues are projected to be $21.7 billion, down 1.9% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - There has been a downward revision of 1.3% in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reconsideration by analysts [1][2] Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- FedEx Freight segment' is $2.28 billion, indicating a decrease of 1.3% year-over-year [4] - Analysts project 'Revenue- Federal Express segment' to reach $18.45 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 77.1% from the prior year [4] - 'Revenue- Other and eliminations' is expected to be $928.54 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 11.5% [4] Key Metrics Forecast - 'Revenue- FedEx Express- Freight- Total freight revenue' is estimated at $1.37 billion, suggesting a decline of 16.7% year-over-year [5] - The average daily package volume for 'FedEx Express - Package - Total international export ADV' is expected to be 1.08 million, up from 1.06 million in the same quarter last year [5] - 'FedEx Freight - Weight per shipment - Composite weight per shipment' is projected to be 922.71 thousand, down from 939 thousand year-over-year [6] Daily Volume Estimates - 'FedEx Express - Package - Average daily package volume - Total ADV' is expected to reach 16.19 million, compared to 5.36 million in the previous year [6] - 'FedEx Express - Freight - Average daily freight pounds - U.S.' is estimated at 2.32 million, down from 5.55 million year-over-year [7] - 'FedEx Express - Package - Average daily package volume - International domestic' is projected to be 1.87 million, compared to 1.72 million last year [7] Revenue per Package - 'FedEx Express - Package - Revenue per package - International export composite' is expected to be $48.60, down from $52.08 in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - FedEx shares have changed by +0.6% in the past month, matching the +0.6% movement of the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [10]

Core Insights - FedEx Corporation has announced a 5.1% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $1.45 per share, marking the fifth consecutive year of dividend hikes [1][9] - The company has executed $2.52 billion in share repurchases in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, surpassing the total for the entire fiscal year 2024 [5][9] - FedEx's stock is currently trading at a low price/sales ratio of 0.6, indicating potential undervaluation compared to the sector average of 0.96 [7][8] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The quarterly dividend will be paid on July 8, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 23, 2025 [2] - Dividends have increased significantly from $793 million in 2022 to $1.26 billion in 2024, with $1.01 billion already distributed in the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 [3] Capital Allocation Strategy - FedEx's aggressive capital allocation strategy aims to enhance shareholder returns through both dividends and share repurchases [3][5] - The company’s buyback program suggests management views its stock as undervalued and aims to improve per-share metrics [5] Market Position and Performance - The recent multi-year delivery deal with Amazon is expected to provide a significant boost to FedEx's domestic market presence and operational efficiency [10][11] - Despite the positive impact of the Amazon deal, FedEx shares have faced declines, although they have outperformed rival UPS over the past year [12] Financial Outlook and Challenges - FedEx is experiencing weak EPS forecasts and rising costs due to macroeconomic pressures, which are affecting its Freight segment [9][15] - The company has issued a lackluster revenue forecast for fiscal 2025, projecting flat or slightly declining revenues year over year [16] - Operating expenses increased by 2% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal 2025, driven by a 57% rise in business optimization costs [17] Investor Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates downward due to ongoing challenges, leading to negative sentiment surrounding FedEx stock [19][20] - The combination of weak current performance and uncertain future prospects raises concerns for potential investors [20]

Group 1: FedEx - FedEx announced a dividend increase of $0.28 (5%) to $5.80 per share, effective July 8, with a yield of 2.6% [4][8] - The company reported a slight year-over-year revenue increase to over $22 billion, but a 12% rise in non-GAAP net income to just under $1.1 billion [5] - Despite beating revenue estimates, FedEx's profitability fell short, and management has continually reduced guidance for fiscal 2025, leading to investor caution [6][8] Group 2: Realty Income - Realty Income raised its dividend by a modest 0.2%, resulting in a payout slightly under $0.27 per share, with a yield of 5.6% [9][12] - The company focuses on leasing to stable businesses, such as supermarkets and home improvement stores, and has expanded into new segments and regions [10] - Realty Income's first-quarter revenue increased nearly 10% year-over-year to $1.38 billion, with adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) rising slightly above 10% [11]

Company Performance - FedEx closed at $226.77, marking a +1.07% move from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.94% gain [1] - In the past month, FedEx shares have lost 2.24%, while the Transportation sector lost 1.61% and the S&P 500 gained 1.67% [1] Upcoming Earnings - FedEx's earnings report is set to be released on June 24, 2025, with an expected EPS of $5.94, up 9.8% from the prior-year quarter [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $21.7 billion, down 1.85% from the year-ago period [2] Full Year Estimates - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $18.14 per share and revenue of $87.41 billion, reflecting changes of +1.91% and 0% respectively from last year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates indicate near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting confidence in business performance [3] Valuation Metrics - FedEx has a Forward P/E ratio of 11.44, indicating a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 14.12 [5] - The PEG ratio for FedEx is currently 1.07, while the average PEG ratio for Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo stocks is 1.75 [6] Industry Ranking - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 191, placing it in the bottom 23% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Points - FedEx Corporation's board approved a 5.1% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it to $1.45 per share from $1.38, reflecting a commitment to enhance shareholder returns [1][10] - The increased dividend will be paid on July 8, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 23, 2025 [1][10] - FedEx has increased its annual dividend for five consecutive years, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value [2][10] Financial Performance - In the first nine months of fiscal 2025, FedEx paid $1.01 billion in dividends and repurchased $2.52 billion in shares [4][10] - For fiscal 2024, FedEx paid $1.26 billion in dividends and repurchased $2.50 billion in shares, while in fiscal 2023, it paid $1.18 billion in dividends and repurchased $1.50 billion [4] Market Reaction - Following the dividend hike announcement, FedEx shares closed at $222.18, up 1.17% from the previous day, indicating positive investor sentiment [2]