Core Viewpoint - FedEx reported strong earnings in Q4, beating estimates and showing year-over-year growth, but there are concerns about future revenue growth and downward revisions in estimates leading up to the next earnings report [2][12][15]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) were $6.07, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.93 and improving by 12.2% year-over-year [2]. - Revenues reached $22.2 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.7 billion and showing a 0.5% increase from the previous year [2]. - Operating income increased by 15% to $1.79 billion, with operating margin rising to 8.1% from 7% in the prior year [3]. Cost Management - Operating expenses decreased by 1% to $20.4 billion, benefiting from the DRIVE program and higher volumes [4][3]. - The company achieved structural cost reduction targets, contributing to improved operating income and margin [3]. Segment Performance - FedEx Express segment revenues grew by 1% year-over-year to $18.9 billion, supported by cost reductions and increased export volumes [6]. - FedEx Freight revenues fell by 4% to $2.29 billion, impacted by lower fuel surcharges and increased costs [7]. Liquidity and Shareholder Returns - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q4 were $5.50 billion, up from $5.13 billion in the previous quarter, while long-term debt decreased to $19.1 billion [9]. - The company returned nearly $4.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025, including $3 billion in share repurchases and $1.3 billion in dividends [10]. Future Outlook - For Q1 of fiscal 2026, FedEx expects revenue growth to be flat to 2% year-over-year, with diluted EPS anticipated between $2.90 and $3.50 [12]. - The company aims for permanent cost reductions of $1 billion from ongoing transformation programs and plans to prioritize capital spending of $4.5 billion [13]. - FedEx is committed to rewarding shareholders with a 5% dividend increase and a robust share repurchase program [14]. Estimate Revisions - Consensus estimates have trended downward, with a shift of -7.06% noted in the past month [15]. - FedEx currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [17].

Group 1 - FedEx is scheduled to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on June 24, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $5.86 per share and sales of $21.8 billion, an increase from $5.41 per share and $22.1 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $54 billion and reported $88 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $6.0 billion and a net income of $3.9 billion [4] - Historically, FedEx's stock has shown varied reactions to earnings announcements, with positive one-day returns occurring in 50% of instances, yielding a median increase of 6.6%, while negative returns also occurred in 50% of cases, with a median decrease of 4.8% [2][8] Group 2 - There are 20 earnings data points logged over the past five years, with an equal split of 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, maintaining a consistent 50% probability of positive returns over the last three years [8] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be utilized for trading strategies, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has significantly underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index, with a nearly 30% decline over the past year, while the S&P 500 increased by 12% [2] Financial Performance - UPS's revenues have slightly decreased over recent years, with a 1.3% increase from $90 billion to $91 billion in the last 12 months, contrasting with a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - The company's operating income over the last four quarters was $8.5 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 9.4%, which is lower than the S&P 500's 13.2% [12] - UPS's net income for the last four quarters was $5.9 billion, indicating a net income margin of 6.4%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [12] Valuation Metrics - UPS has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.9, a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 9.0, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.1, all significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratios of 3.0, 20.5, and 26.4 respectively [7] - The current valuation of UPS stock is approximately $98, with an estimated potential upside to $124 per share, indicating over 25% upside potential [10] Market Position and Strategy - UPS's strategic decision to minimize lower-margin Amazon deliveries aims to enhance profitability, although new tariffs may increase costs and potentially decrease shipping volumes, particularly in international trade [2] - Despite operational challenges, UPS stock is viewed as an appealing buying opportunity due to its low valuation, which reflects the already apparent difficulties [3] Resilience and Stability - UPS's balance sheet appears solid, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 31.1% compared to 19.9% for the S&P 500 [12] - The stock has shown slightly better resilience during downturns compared to the S&P 500, indicating a degree of stability in challenging market conditions [9]

Group 1 - UPS plans to cut approximately 20,000 operational positions by 2025, representing about 4% of its total workforce of 490,000 employees, as part of a network restructuring and efficiency improvement initiative [1][3] - The decision to reduce workforce is driven by a significant expected decrease in order volume from its largest customer, Amazon, which previously accounted for about 12% of UPS's revenue [1][3] - UPS has already agreed to reduce its shipping volume from Amazon by over 50% by June 2026, indicating a strategic shift away from low-margin business [1][3] Group 2 - The company has previously cut 12,000 management positions earlier this year, highlighting ongoing efforts to reduce labor dependency amid economic uncertainties [3] - The trade war and tariffs have led to a sudden decline in shipments from Asia, negatively impacting UPS's transportation network and expected to significantly reduce shipping volumes in the coming weeks and months [4] - Despite challenges, UPS reported a net income of $1.19 billion and revenue of $21.5 billion in the first quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations, although it refrained from updating its full-year outlook due to economic uncertainties [4][5]

作 者 | Investor's Compass 编译 | 华尔街大事件 联邦快递公司 (NYSE:FDX) 将于 3 月 20 日收盘后公布其第三季度业绩。9 月 20 日该公司公布 了第一季度业绩 后，该股上涨，但自那以后，其总回报率为 -3.89%，而标准普尔 500 指数的 回报率为 -1.12%。 对于第三季度，分析师目前预计联邦快递的调整后每股 收益为 4.64 美元 ，同比增长 20.2%。 预计营收为 218.9 亿美元，增长 0.71%。 投资者还将关注其通过 DRIVE 计划实现的更多成本节约，因为该公司 在第二季度财报电话会 议上 表示，它有望"在 25 财年末实现 40 亿美元的成本节约，而 23 财年的成本则为基数"。在 第二季度，联邦快递实现了 5.4 亿美元的成本节约，并计划在 2025 财年实现 22 亿美元的成本 节约。 联邦快递 能否实现其 EPS 预测，或者至少不必再次下调其 2025 财年预测？分析师并不乐观。 正如您在下面看到的，近年来 EPS 修订趋势一直较低。 收入修正趋势也是如此。 自由现 金流修订也是如此。 趋势逆转的可能性不大，尤其是在经济不确定性和关税阻碍 ...