联邦快递 ( NYSE: FDX ) 近期公布了财报。该公司股价基本持平；然而，其估值较低。该公司的估值，加上其在难以复制的 网络中不断提升的 业绩，使其成为一项不错的投资。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 更重要的是，货运只是公司业务的一小部分，因此风险极小。 联邦快递是一家价值 550 亿美元的公司，其 2026 财年第一季度的收入高达 220 亿美元。 | Q1 FY26 Results | $22.2B | | | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue | 3% YoY | | | $1.30B | Adj. operating income* | 7% YoY | | 5.8% | Adj. operating margin® | 20 bps | | $3.83 | Adj. EPS" | 6% YOY | 该公司收入同比增长3%，调整后营业收入同比增长7%。公司收入和利润率双双增长，支撑了强劲的盈利增长，这在艰难的市场环境下令人印 象深刻。公司实现了2亿美元的成本节约，联邦快递的货运业务也继续表现优异。 最终结果是，该公司调整后每股收益同比增长6%，市盈率却保持在两位数的低 ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Corporation reported better-than-expected results for Q1 FY 2026, with revenue and earnings surpassing market estimates, leading to a more than 5% increase in shares during after-market hours [2][3] Financial Performance - FedEx's Q1 2026 revenue increased by 3% year-over-year to $22.26 billion, driven by stronger domestic package volumes [2] - Adjusted earnings rose 6% year-over-year to $3.83 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $3.59 per share [2] - The Federal Express segment saw a 4% year-over-year revenue increase to $19.1 billion, with adjusted operating income surging 17% to $1.16 billion [5] - FedEx Freight experienced a 3% year-over-year revenue decline to $2.26 billion, with adjusted operating income falling 16% to $369 million [6] Outlook and Guidance - FedEx reinstated its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting revenue growth of 4% to 6% and adjusted earnings per share between $17.20 and $19.00 [3][10] - The company anticipates $1 billion in headwinds from trade tariffs and the expiration of the de minimis exception, along with an additional $160 million impact from the expiration of the U.S. Postal Service contract [10] Capital Allocation - FedEx returned $845 million to shareholders in Q1 2026 through $500 million in share repurchases and $345 million in dividends [9] - The company invested $623 million in capital expenditures during the quarter, ending with a cash balance of $6.2 billion and total debt of $21.1 billion [9] Strategic Initiatives - FedEx is advancing its transformation agenda with Network 2.0, optimizing operations and enhancing efficiency [12] - The company is focusing on high-value verticals, particularly healthcare and small and medium businesses (SMBs), with significant revenue growth in these segments [13] - FedEx is on track to complete the spin-off of FedEx Freight into a standalone entity by June 2026, with nearly half of the planned salesforce positions already filled [7][8] Conclusion - FedEx's Q1 results demonstrate resilience amid macro challenges, with management confident in achieving earnings growth despite external pressures [14]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx stock is trending higher following positive quarterly results and a favorable sales outlook, despite facing significant pressure earlier in the year due to elevated operating costs [2] Valuation Comparison - FedEx's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 0.6 compared to 3.2 for the S&P 500, indicating it is undervalued relative to the broader market [6] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio for FedEx is 15 versus 21.1 for the S&P 500, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14 compared to 24 for the benchmark [6] Revenue Growth - FedEx's revenues have declined at an average rate of 2.2% over the last three years, while the S&P 500 has seen an increase of 5.3% [6] - In the last 12 months, FedEx's revenues grew by 1% from $88 billion to $89.6 billion, compared to a 5.1% growth for the S&P 500 [6] - Quarterly revenues increased by 2.8% to $22 billion in the most recent quarter from $22 billion a year ago, while the S&P 500 experienced a 6.1% improvement [6] Profitability Analysis - FedEx's operating income over the last four quarters was $6.0 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 6.7%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.6% [11] - The operating cash flow (OCF) for FedEx was $7.6 billion, yielding an OCF margin of 8.5% compared to 20.3% for the S&P 500 [11] - FedEx's net income was $4.1 billion, indicating a net income margin of 4.7%, again lower than the S&P 500's 12.6% [11] Financial Stability - FedEx's debt stood at $38 billion with a market capitalization of $54 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 67%, higher than the S&P 500's 20.9% [11] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $6.2 billion out of $88 billion in total assets, leading to a cash-to-assets ratio of 7.0%, which is on par with the S&P 500 [11] Stock Performance During Downturns - FDX stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during recent downturns, with a peak-to-trough decline of 54.7% from May 2021 to September 2022, compared to 25.4% for the S&P 500 [11] - The stock has not yet recovered to its pre-crisis high, with the highest price since then being $313.52 in July 2024, currently trading around $225 [11] Overall Assessment - FedEx's recent performance has been weak across key metrics, but its low valuation suggests that this is already reflected in the stock price [10] - The company is valued at 14 times trailing earnings, slightly below its five-year average of 15 times, with potential for growth as revenue increases and management focuses on margin improvement [10]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx reported strong earnings in Q4, beating estimates and showing year-over-year growth, but there are concerns about future revenue growth and downward revisions in estimates leading up to the next earnings report [2][12][15]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) were $6.07, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.93 and improving by 12.2% year-over-year [2]. - Revenues reached $22.2 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.7 billion and showing a 0.5% increase from the previous year [2]. - Operating income increased by 15% to $1.79 billion, with operating margin rising to 8.1% from 7% in the prior year [3]. Cost Management - Operating expenses decreased by 1% to $20.4 billion, benefiting from the DRIVE program and higher volumes [4][3]. - The company achieved structural cost reduction targets, contributing to improved operating income and margin [3]. Segment Performance - FedEx Express segment revenues grew by 1% year-over-year to $18.9 billion, supported by cost reductions and increased export volumes [6]. - FedEx Freight revenues fell by 4% to $2.29 billion, impacted by lower fuel surcharges and increased costs [7]. Liquidity and Shareholder Returns - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q4 were $5.50 billion, up from $5.13 billion in the previous quarter, while long-term debt decreased to $19.1 billion [9]. - The company returned nearly $4.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025, including $3 billion in share repurchases and $1.3 billion in dividends [10]. Future Outlook - For Q1 of fiscal 2026, FedEx expects revenue growth to be flat to 2% year-over-year, with diluted EPS anticipated between $2.90 and $3.50 [12]. - The company aims for permanent cost reductions of $1 billion from ongoing transformation programs and plans to prioritize capital spending of $4.5 billion [13]. - FedEx is committed to rewarding shareholders with a 5% dividend increase and a robust share repurchase program [14]. Estimate Revisions - Consensus estimates have trended downward, with a shift of -7.06% noted in the past month [15]. - FedEx currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [17].

Group 1 - FedEx is scheduled to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on June 24, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $5.86 per share and sales of $21.8 billion, an increase from $5.41 per share and $22.1 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $54 billion and reported $88 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $6.0 billion and a net income of $3.9 billion [4] - Historically, FedEx's stock has shown varied reactions to earnings announcements, with positive one-day returns occurring in 50% of instances, yielding a median increase of 6.6%, while negative returns also occurred in 50% of cases, with a median decrease of 4.8% [2][8] Group 2 - There are 20 earnings data points logged over the past five years, with an equal split of 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, maintaining a consistent 50% probability of positive returns over the last three years [8] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be utilized for trading strategies, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has significantly underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index, with a nearly 30% decline over the past year, while the S&P 500 increased by 12% [2] Financial Performance - UPS's revenues have slightly decreased over recent years, with a 1.3% increase from $90 billion to $91 billion in the last 12 months, contrasting with a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - The company's operating income over the last four quarters was $8.5 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 9.4%, which is lower than the S&P 500's 13.2% [12] - UPS's net income for the last four quarters was $5.9 billion, indicating a net income margin of 6.4%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [12] Valuation Metrics - UPS has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.9, a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 9.0, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.1, all significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratios of 3.0, 20.5, and 26.4 respectively [7] - The current valuation of UPS stock is approximately $98, with an estimated potential upside to $124 per share, indicating over 25% upside potential [10] Market Position and Strategy - UPS's strategic decision to minimize lower-margin Amazon deliveries aims to enhance profitability, although new tariffs may increase costs and potentially decrease shipping volumes, particularly in international trade [2] - Despite operational challenges, UPS stock is viewed as an appealing buying opportunity due to its low valuation, which reflects the already apparent difficulties [3] Resilience and Stability - UPS's balance sheet appears solid, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 31.1% compared to 19.9% for the S&P 500 [12] - The stock has shown slightly better resilience during downturns compared to the S&P 500, indicating a degree of stability in challenging market conditions [9]

Group 1 - UPS plans to cut approximately 20,000 operational positions by 2025, representing about 4% of its total workforce of 490,000 employees, as part of a network restructuring and efficiency improvement initiative [1][3] - The decision to reduce workforce is driven by a significant expected decrease in order volume from its largest customer, Amazon, which previously accounted for about 12% of UPS's revenue [1][3] - UPS has already agreed to reduce its shipping volume from Amazon by over 50% by June 2026, indicating a strategic shift away from low-margin business [1][3] Group 2 - The company has previously cut 12,000 management positions earlier this year, highlighting ongoing efforts to reduce labor dependency amid economic uncertainties [3] - The trade war and tariffs have led to a sudden decline in shipments from Asia, negatively impacting UPS's transportation network and expected to significantly reduce shipping volumes in the coming weeks and months [4] - Despite challenges, UPS reported a net income of $1.19 billion and revenue of $21.5 billion in the first quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations, although it refrained from updating its full-year outlook due to economic uncertainties [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is expected to report its Q3 earnings on March 20, with analysts predicting adjusted EPS of $4.64, a 20.2% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $21.89 billion, a 0.71% growth [1] Financial Performance - Following the Q1 earnings report on September 20, FedEx's total return has been -3.89%, compared to the S&P 500's -1.12% [1] - In Q2, FedEx achieved $540 million in cost savings and aims for $2.2 billion in savings by FY2025 [1] - The trend of EPS revisions has been downward in recent years, indicating analyst skepticism about meeting EPS forecasts [1][2] Revenue Insights - International revenue accounted for $4.988 billion, or 22.75% of total revenue in Q2, highlighting the impact of tariffs on international shipping costs [4] - Consumer confidence is low, which may lead to reduced spending, negatively affecting FedEx's cyclical business [6] Market Expectations - The market is looking for updates on the proposed freight business spin-off, which analysts believe could create significant value [7][8] - Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan estimates over a 50% chance of a spin-off, potentially adding $100 to the stock price [9] Business Segmentation - The freight business has a higher operating profit margin of 19.3% compared to the overall business margin of 7.5% [10][11] - FedEx's freight segment is the largest LTL pure-play business, suggesting it could achieve a premium valuation as a standalone entity [11] Valuation Metrics - FedEx shares are currently trading at 12.6 times FY2025 earnings, 10.7 times FY2026 earnings, and 9.45 times FY2027 earnings, indicating a relatively low valuation [12] - The expected P/E ratio of 11.4 is slightly below the 10-year average, suggesting potential value [13] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts express caution, preferring a larger margin of safety before considering positions, especially given the uncertainty surrounding EPS, revenue, and free cash flow revisions [14] - The potential risks outweigh the rewards entering the Q3 earnings report, with analysts not believing the stock has strong upside potential at this time [15]