1 December 2025 China Data Centres Equities 2026 slowdown, regain momentum in 2027 2026 slowdown; potential acceleration in 2027: 3Q25 new wholesale order hasn't seen significant pick-up after 2Q's slowdown. We believe this is due to large wholesale clients delaying their capex before seeing more clarity on chip resolution – whether to wait for Nvidia's GPU greenlight, or make a full pivot to domestic chips. We think underlying demand remains intact, but growth will likely decelerate into 2026 due to high b ...

12月5日，美股三大指数小幅收涨，道指涨0.22%，纳指涨0.31%，标普500指数涨0.19%，大型科技股多数上涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.29%，中概股 多数上涨，百度涨超5%，万国数据涨超4%，小鹏汽车、爱奇艺、好未来涨超2%。 | < ப | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 HXC.GI | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | | 资讯 | | | 名称 | 现价量 | 涨跌幅= | 涨跌 ▶ | | 联合索威尔国际 | 1.010 | 17.07% | 0.147 | | LHSW.O | | | | | 叮咚买菜 | 2.175 11.54% | | 0.225 | | DDL.N | | | | | 亿咖通科技 | 2.100 | 8.25% | 0.160 | | ECX.O | | | | | 虎牙 | 2.975 | 6.25% | 0.175 | | HUYA.N | | | | | 百度集团 | 125.660 | 5.85% | 6.940 | | BIDU.O | | | | | 奇梦岛 | 5.250 | 5.85% | 0.290 | | H ...

每经AI快讯，12月6日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.29%，热门中概股多数上涨，百度涨超5%，万国 数据涨超4%，小鹏汽车、爱奇艺、好未来涨超2%。 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices opened slightly higher on December 5, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, Nasdaq up 0.36%, and S&P 500 up 0.32% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 48,028.89, gaining 177.95 points [2] - Nasdaq Composite Index stood at 23,588.84, increasing by 83.69 points [2] - S&P 500 Index was at 6,879.39, rising by 22.27 points [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks showed strong performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.4% at one point and currently up about 1.2% [2] - Major Chinese tech stocks saw significant gains, including Baidu Group up nearly 4%, Xiaomi Group ADR up over 2%, and Meituan ADR up over 1% [2] - Other notable Chinese stocks included Dingdong Maicai up over 8%, Huya up over 4%, and ZTO Express, Global Data, New Oriental, among others, up over 3% [2] US-China Economic Relations - On December 5, Chinese and US economic leaders held a video call to discuss the implementation of agreements from previous high-level meetings [4] - Both sides positively evaluated the outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur economic consultations and expressed commitment to continue pragmatic cooperation [4] - The discussions aimed to expand the cooperation list and address concerns in the economic field, promoting stable and positive US-China economic relations [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant rise, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index showing a peak increase of 1.4% and currently maintaining a rise of approximately 1.2% [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 5, U.S. stock indices opened slightly higher, with the Dow Jones up by 0.37%, Nasdaq up by 0.36%, and S&P 500 up by 0.32% [2]. - The current prices and changes for major indices are as follows: Dow Jones Industrial Average at 48,028.89 (+177.95, +0.37%), Nasdaq Index at 23,588.84 (+83.69, +0.36%), and S&P 500 at 6,879.39 (+22.27, +0.32%) [3]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Major Chinese tech stocks saw an overall increase, with Baidu Group rising nearly 4%, Xiaomi Group ADR up over 2%, and Meituan ADR up over 1% [3]. - Other notable performers include Dingdong Maicai up over 8%, Huya up over 4%, and ZTO Express, Global Data, New Oriental, among others, all rising over 3% [3]. - Additional stocks such as XPeng Motors, Yipeng Energy, Beike, and Tiger Brokers also saw increases of over 2% [3]. Group 3: Economic Relations - A video call took place on December 5 between Chinese and U.S. economic leaders, focusing on implementing agreements from previous high-level meetings and discussing practical cooperation in trade [5]. - Both sides positively evaluated the outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur economic consultations and expressed intentions to continue enhancing the economic cooperation framework under the strategic guidance of the two nations' leaders [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's investment philosophy, which incorporates various strategies including fundamental, technical, and momentum investing [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The author emphasizes the importance of a diversified approach to investing, utilizing the strengths of fundamental, technical, and momentum strategies [1]. - The focus is on managing personal capital accumulated over the years, indicating a shift towards individual investment management [1]. Group 2: Purpose of Writing - The article serves as a platform for tracking the performance of investment ideas and connecting with like-minded investors [1].

Summary of China & ASEAN Data Centers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China and ASEAN data center sector, highlighting positive trends in order volume, capital expenditure (capex) expansion, and capital recycling strategies for companies like GDS and VNET [1][6][37]. Key Companies - **GDS Holdings (GDS)**: Target price set at US$43/HK$42 for ADR/H-share, reflecting a slight decrease from previous targets. Valuation of DayOne, a subsidiary, increased by 17% to US$10.5/HK$10.2 per GDS ADR/H-share [1][49]. - **VNET**: Maintained a target price of US$14, with a Buy rating [1][49]. Core Insights - **Order Volume and Demand**: Both GDS and VNET are expected to secure around 300MW of orders each in 2026, representing a significant increase in market share from 9% in 2025 to approximately 20% of incremental data center demand in China [6][10]. - **Capex Growth**: GDS's organic capex is projected to reach Rmb7 billion in 2026, up from Rmb4.8 billion in 2025, to support capacity expansion. VNET's capex is expected to exceed Rmb8 billion for 350-400MW capacity delivery [6][7]. - **Favorable Financing Environment**: The report notes a positive outlook for financing, with GDS and VNET expected to generate substantial operating cash flow (Rmb4 billion+ for GDS and Rmb3 billion+ for VNET in 2026) [7][10]. Financial Performance - **DayOne's Performance**: DayOne reported a significant year-over-year growth in revenue (+177%) and adjusted EBITDA (+358%), indicating strong operational execution and capacity expansion [53][59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: DayOne aims to reach approximately 1GW of committed capacity by the end of 2025, with ongoing projects in Thailand and other regions [53][54]. Market Trends - **Data Center Demand Growth**: The China data center market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2028, reaching 33GW by 2028 [10][12]. - **Utilization Rates**: GDS and VNET are expected to account for over 11% of data center demand in China by 2028, driven by above-industry utilization rates [17][12]. Regulatory Environment - New electricity tariffs in Malaysia may increase operational costs for data center operators, while stricter water consumption rules could benefit companies like DayOne that focus on higher-tier data centers [54][54]. Valuation Adjustments - GDS's valuation was adjusted to Rmb66 billion or US$37.4/HK$36.4 per ADR/H-share due to increased share count from recent offerings. DayOne's valuation was raised based on improved growth estimates [48][49]. Conclusion - The outlook for the China and ASEAN data center sector remains positive, with strong demand, increased capex, and favorable financing conditions. GDS and VNET are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, supported by robust operational performance and strategic expansions.

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.39% at 47,474.46 points, the S&P 500 up 0.25% at 6,829.37 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.59% at 23,413.67 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Apple increasing over 1%, Facebook nearly 1%, Nvidia up 0.86%, Microsoft up 0.67%, Google up 0.29%, and Amazon up 0.223%, while Tesla fell 0.21% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Atour up over 5% and Tiger Brokers up over 2%. Xpeng Motors dropped over 7%, iQIYI fell over 3%, and NIO, Global Data, and Bilibili fell over 2%. Alibaba, NetEase, and ZTO Express dropped over 1% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.49% at 23,705.8 points, France's CAC40 down 0.28% at 8,074.61 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01% at 9,701.8 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.84% at $4,238.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.01% at $59.15 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 1.23% to $58.59 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract dropped 1.28% to $62.36 per barrel [1] - London base metals all declined, with LME zinc down 1.32% at $3,055.50 per ton, LME nickel down 1.26% at $14,740.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.02% at $2,863.50 per ton, LME copper down 0.95% at $11,145.00 per ton, LME tin down 0.76% at $38,840.00 per ton, and LME lead down 0.42% at $1,993.50 per ton [1] Bond Markets - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 1.62 basis points at 3.508%, the 3-year yield down 1.13 basis points at 3.528%, the 5-year yield down 0.34 basis points at 3.657%, the 10-year yield up 0.19 basis points at 4.088%, and the 30-year yield up 0.99 basis points at 4.747% [1] - European bond yields mostly fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points at 4.468%, France's 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points at 3.489%, Germany's 10-year yield down 0.1 basis points at 2.747%, Italy's 10-year yield down 0.4 basis points at 3.462%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 0.4 basis points at 3.221% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance and strategic shifts of GDS Holdings Limited, highlighting the impact of artificial intelligence on the data center industry and the significance of the recent asset injection into China's first Infrastructure REITs [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, GDS reported revenue of 2.887 billion yuan (approximately 406 million USD), representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [4]. - The company recorded a net profit of 729 million yuan, attributed to a termination gain of 1.369 billion yuan from the asset injection into the C-REIT [5]. Industry Trends - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for China's data center industry, driven by the demand for AI training and inference, alongside the introduction of REITs as a new financial tool [2]. - Despite the strong demand for AI, the company faces challenges with declining negotiation power due to oversupply in the market, leading to a monthly revenue decrease of approximately 3% to 4% [3][5]. Strategic Changes - The asset injection into the REITs has transformed GDS's operational model, allowing for expansion without heavy reliance on debt, which is crucial in a tightening credit environment [6]. - The company's net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA ratio improved from 6.8 times at the end of 2024 to 6 times by the end of Q3 2025, with an average borrowing cost reduced to 3.3% [6]. Market Position - GDS's business model is highly dependent on power supply, with approximately 900 megawatts of land reserves available for new projects, which is critical given the increasing competition for land and power resources [6]. - The company's price-to-sales ratio (P/S) is around 4.15, lower than that of major competitors like Equinix and Digital Realty, indicating potential for valuation improvement as AI demand remains strong [7]. Future Outlook - GDS's overseas data center platform, DayOne, is expected to contribute to future growth, although it recorded a loss of 461 million yuan in Q3, which may impact overall profitability in the short term [7]. - The stock has seen a 30% increase this year, but a recent 7% pullback suggests a potential opportunity for investors, especially as AI-driven demand continues and REIT asset injections proceed smoothly [7].

Summary of GDS Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GDS Holdings - **Industry**: Data Center Services Key Points Industry Dynamics and Company Strategy - GDS Holdings is transitioning from a deleveraging focus to a growth-oriented strategy starting in 2026, driven by increased demand for AI infrastructure and improved chip availability [2][9] - The company anticipates a significant upcycle in demand beginning in 2026, particularly due to AI-related needs [2][9] Order Volume and Customer Move-Ins - For 2025, GDS expects total order volume to reach approximately 300 MW, with around 60% of this demand being AI-related (GPUs) and 40% being CPU-based [7] - Management forecasts that move-ins for 2025 will be around 20%-30% of the order volume, with a significant increase in 2026 [7] - The company expects to utilize over 75,000 square meters from its existing backlog in 2026, with a larger proportion of move-ins expected to be supported by domestic chips [7][9] Pricing Trends - GDS anticipates a decline in its Market Share Rate (MSR) by 3-4% in the upcoming year due to contract renewals at lower rates, with a recovery period of 5-7 years [10] - Despite the decline in MSR, project-level pricing has remained stable, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for new projects is attractive, with unlevered IRR in the low teens and levered IRR exceeding 20% [10] Data Center Location Strategy - GDS plans to capture new orders through its existing 1 GW inventory capacity, with potential expansion into remote areas to meet additional demand [10] - Tier-1 cities are critical for public cloud services and AI inference due to low-latency requirements, while remote regions are emerging as preferred locations for large-scale AI training clusters [10] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for data center projects remains stringent, requiring signed customer contracts, adoption of domestic chips, and full funding coverage [10] - These regulations are seen as supportive for long-term industry development by preventing oversupply and maintaining pricing stability [10] Cooling Systems - GDS employs a flexible cooling system design that allows for a mix of air and liquid cooling, providing operational flexibility [10] Investment Thesis - GDS is positioned to benefit from the growth in AI-driven cloud services and international expansion, with a focus on backlog delivery leading to higher revenue growth visibility [9] - The company is rated as a "Buy" with target prices of US$44 and HK$43 for GDS and 9698.HK respectively, indicating an upside potential of approximately 29.1% and 30.0% [3][12] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include below-expected move-in demand, slower overseas revenue ramp-up, and potential customer churn [11] Additional Insights - GDS's strong delivery track record differentiates it from smaller competitors, as evidenced by clients shifting orders to GDS after failures from other providers [10] - The company is optimistic about data center demand from 2027 to 2029, indicating a long-term growth outlook [7][9]