Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue increase of 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the same period in 2019 [1] - VIP gaming table turnover increased by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 39.7% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, recovering to 81.3% of the same period in 2019 [1] Financial Performance - The net revenue for "Galaxy Macau" and StarWorld Hotel increased by 20% and decreased by 6% year-on-year, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1% and 8%, reaching HKD 10.1 billion and HKD 1.3 billion [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for "Galaxy Macau" and StarWorld Hotel was HKD 3.07 billion and HKD 370 million, showing year-on-year growth of 20% and a decrease of 7%, respectively [2] - The EBITDA margin for "Galaxy Macau" and StarWorld Hotel was 30.4% and 29.2%, respectively [2] Development Projects - The majority of facilities for the new hotel brand, Capella Hotels and Resorts, have opened, with positive customer feedback; remaining facilities, including a specialty restaurant, are expected to open early next year [2] - The fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau" construction is ongoing, expected to be completed by 2027, covering approximately 600,000 square meters and introducing several high-end hotel brands [2] - Capital expenditure for the year is expected to be significantly lower than the previously budgeted HKD 7 billion, with HKD 630 million spent during the period [2] Market Trends - The company recorded good performance in October and post-Golden Week, with retail performance showing quarter-on-quarter improvement [3] - Approximately 260 entertainment, sports, arts, culture, and exhibition events were held from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in foot traffic to "Galaxy Macau" [3] - The market share remained stable at around 19.6%, with short-term expectations to maintain above 20% [3] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 50.06, equivalent to 13 times the 2026 EV/EBITDA [3] - Confidence in the company's long-term development is supported by strong product offerings, a solid balance sheet, and upcoming projects [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 50.06, representing a potential upside of 30.36% from the current stock price of HKD 38.40 [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The VIP gaming table turnover increased by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, while mass gaming revenue grew by 12.8% year-on-year and 7.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the group grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, recovering to 81.3% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The company holds a strong balance sheet with net cash of HKD 34.8 billion, the strongest in the industry [3]. Financial Summary - Total net revenue is projected to grow from HKD 35,683.6 million in 2023 to HKD 55,764.5 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% [2][4]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from HKD 9,955.0 million in 2023 to HKD 16,439.8 million in 2027, with an EBITDA margin improving from 27.9% to 29.5% over the same period [2][4]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from HKD 6,828.0 million in 2023 to HKD 12,317.4 million in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 9.6% [2][4]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout, with dividends per share expected to increase from HKD 0.5 in 2023 to HKD 1.6 in 2027, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.3% by 2027 [2][4]. Operational Highlights - The performance of "Galaxy Macau™" and the StarWorld Hotel showed a net revenue increase of 20% and a decrease of 6% year-on-year, respectively, with hotel occupancy rates at 98% and 99% [3]. - The company is progressing with the construction of the fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau™," expected to be completed in 2027, which will introduce several high-end hotel brands and a theater with 5,000 seats [3]. - The company hosted approximately 260 entertainment, sports, arts, and cultural events from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in visitor traffic to "Galaxy Macau™" [3].

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a target price of HKD 50.06, citing strong product and service offerings, a robust balance sheet, and upcoming projects that will enhance market share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Galaxy's net revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the 2019 level [2] - VIP gaming table turnover rose by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 39.7% of the 2019 level [2] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 27.5% [2] Group 2: Hotel Performance - Net revenue for Macau Galaxy and StarWorld hotels grew by 20% and decreased by 6% year-on-year, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1% and 8% to HKD 10.1 billion and HKD 1.3 billion [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Macau Galaxy and StarWorld hotels was HKD 3.07 billion and HKD 370 million, with respective EBITDA margins of 30.4% and 29.2% [3] Group 3: Project Updates - The Capella Hotel and Resort, the tenth brand of Macau Galaxy, has most facilities open, with a remaining restaurant expected to open early next year [4] - The construction of the fourth phase of Macau Galaxy is ongoing, expected to be completed by 2027, covering approximately 600,000 square meters and introducing several high-end hotel brands [4] Group 4: Recent Developments - The group hosted around 260 entertainment, sports, arts, and cultural events from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in visitor traffic [5] - Daily operating expenses increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 37 million, while market share remained stable at approximately 19.6% [5]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a target price of HKD 50.06, citing strong product and service offerings, a robust balance sheet, and upcoming projects that will enhance market share [1] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance Overview - Galaxy's net revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the 2019 level [1] - VIP gaming table turnover rose by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 39.7% of the 2019 level [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 27.5% [1] Group 2: Macau Galaxy and StarWorld Hotel Performance - Macau Galaxy's net revenue grew by 20% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 10.1 billion, recovering to 108% of the 2019 level [2] - StarWorld Hotel's net revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year but increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 1.3 billion, recovering to 50% of the 2019 level [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Macau Galaxy was HKD 3.07 billion (up 20% year-on-year) and for StarWorld was HKD 370 million (down 7% year-on-year) [2] Group 3: Updates on Macau Galaxy Phase 3 and 4 - The Capella Hotel and Resort, the tenth brand of Macau Galaxy, has most facilities open with positive customer feedback; remaining facilities are expected to open early next year [3] - Construction for Phase 4 is ongoing, expected to be completed by 2027, covering approximately 600,000 square meters with multiple high-end hotel brands and various entertainment facilities [3] - Capital expenditure for the year is expected to be significantly lower than the previously budgeted HKD 7 billion, with HKD 630 million spent in the period and a budget of approximately HKD 7 billion for next year [3] Group 4: Recent Performance - Retail performance showed quarter-on-quarter improvement, with approximately 260 events held from January to September 2025, increasing foot traffic by 41% year-on-year [4] - The market share remained stable at around 19.6%, with short-term expectations to maintain above 20% [4] - Daily operating expenses increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 370 million [4]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Macau's average daily gaming revenue for the past week was approximately 671 million MOP, down from about 711 million MOP in the previous nine days, likely influenced by the Macau Grand Prix held from November 13 to 16 [1] Industry Summary - Average daily gaming revenue from the beginning of the month until now is around 694 million MOP, representing a month-on-month decline of approximately 11%, consistent with seasonal performance from 2015 to 2019 [1] - The market generally predicts that the average daily gaming revenue for November will be about 673 million MOP, with expectations that the remaining days of the month will see an average daily revenue of approximately 649 million MOP [1] Company Summary - UBS's preferred stocks include Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Wynn Macau, all rated as "Buy" with target prices set at 46.9 HKD, 19.8 HKD, and 8.4 HKD respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - From 2023, Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 32% to 58% by the first half of 2025, while maintaining a prudent approach to asset-liability management [1] Group 1: Dividend Policy - The assumption is that the dividend payout ratio will stabilize at around 60%, but if the company returns all recurring free cash flow to shareholders, the payout ratio could rise to at least 69% between 2025 and 2027 [1] - The company's cash position is robust enough to meet new investment demands and potential business shocks [1] Group 2: Capital Management - Capital utilization flexibility remains ample, allowing for strategic investments and shareholder returns [1] - The company is rated as "outperform" with a target price of HKD 50, positioning it as a preferred choice in the Macau gaming sector [1] Group 3: Market Position - Hosting major events is expected to help the company secure a stable market share revenue, indicating growth potential in the competitive landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - From 2023, Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 32% to 58% by mid-2025, while maintaining a prudent asset-liability management approach [1] Group 1: Dividend Policy - The bank assumes that the dividend payout ratio will stabilize at 60%, but if the company returns all recurring free cash flow to shareholders, the payout ratio could rise to at least 69% between 2025 and 2027 [1] Group 2: Financial Health - The company's cash position is robust enough to meet new investment demands and potential business shocks, with ample capital flexibility remaining [1] Group 3: Market Position - The bank maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 50, listing the company as one of the top picks in the Macau gaming sector, as hosting major events helps the company secure stable market share revenue, with room for dividend increases [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Galaxy Entertainment's Q3 2025 performance shows a year-on-year increase in net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, despite some quarterly declines due to various factors [1] - Galaxy Entertainment's net revenue for Q3 2025 reached HKD 12.2 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year and a 1% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the group was HKD 3.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year but down 6% quarter-on-quarter, while the adjusted EBITDA for "Galaxy Macau™" was HKD 3.1 billion, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase but an 8% quarterly decline [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Citi, the dividend payout ratio for Galaxy Entertainment is expected to rise from 32% in 2023 to 58% by the first half of 2025, with a stable assumption of 60% payout ratio [2] - The company has a strong cash position that can meet new investment demands and potential business impacts, maintaining flexibility in capital utilization [2] - Citi maintains a "Outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 50, highlighting that hosting major events will help the company secure stable market share revenue and that there is room for an increase in the dividend payout ratio [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Galaxy Entertainment has shown a positive performance in its Q3 2025 results, with a net revenue increase of 14% year-on-year and a slight increase of 1% quarter-on-quarter, despite some challenges faced during the quarter [1] - Galaxy Entertainment's adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 33 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase but a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for "Galaxy Macau" reached HKD 31 billion, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, although it saw an 8% decline quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Citi, the dividend payout ratio for Galaxy Entertainment is expected to rise from 32% in 2023 to 58% by the first half of 2025, maintaining a prudent approach to asset-liability management [2] - The report suggests that if the company returns all its recurring free cash flow to shareholders, the payout ratio could increase to at least 69% between 2025 and 2027 [2] - The company's cash position is robust enough to meet new investment demands and potential business impacts, with flexible capital utilization remaining ample [2]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment reported a net revenue of HKD 12.2 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the group was HKD 3.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year but down 6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for "Galaxy Macau™" reached HKD 3.1 billion, marking a 20% year-on-year increase and an 8% quarter-on-quarter decline [1] - The net win rate normalized, leading to a 7% year-on-year and a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase in adjusted EBITDA [1] Group 2: Market Factors - The performance was impacted by several factors, including reduced contributions from the construction business, the impact of Typhoon Haikui in September, and a high VIP win rate [1] - Profit margins remained stable at 27.4%, as increased gaming volume offset additional costs [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - From 2023, the dividend payout ratio increased from 32% to 58% by the first half of 2025, with a cautious approach to asset-liability management [2] - The company has the potential to increase the payout ratio to at least 69% between 2025 and 2027 if all recurring free cash flow is returned to shareholders [2] - The company's cash position is robust enough to meet new investment demands and potential business shocks, maintaining flexibility in capital utilization [2]