Core Viewpoint - Macquarie forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in December could increase by 17% to 22% year-on-year, with a total revenue estimate of MOP 213 billion to MOP 222 billion [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The average daily gaming revenue in Macau last week was MOP 700 million, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8% [1] - The VIP room win rate has returned to normal levels, with average daily revenue in the mass market increasing by 3% to 5% compared to November, and VIP room daily revenue growing by 2% to 5% [1] - The VIP room win rate is reported to be between 2.7% and 2.9%, which is lower than the over 3% recorded in November [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is identified as the top pick in the gaming sector, with a target price of HKD 57.5, rated "outperform" due to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel by the end of this year is expected to enhance Galaxy's market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Investors are advised to reconsider Sands China (01928) and MGM China (02282) due to their market share growth and attractive valuation levels, with target prices set at HKD 25.2 and HKD 22.6 respectively, both rated "outperform" [1]

麦格理发布研报称，数据显示澳门上周的日均博彩收入为7亿澳门元(下同)，按周上升8%，贵宾厅赢率 已恢复正常水平。与11月比较，中场日均收入上升3%至5%，贵宾厅日均收入则增长2%至5%，贵宾厅 赢率达2.7%至2.9%(相对11月为逾3%)。假设本月余下时间日均博彩收入维持6.6亿至7.5亿元，12月的博 彩总收入将达213亿至222亿元，同比升17%至22%。 此外，该行亦建议投资者重新审视金沙中国(01928)及美高梅中国(02282)，考虑到两者的市场份额增长 及具吸引力的估值水平，目标价分别为25.2港元及22.6港元，均获"跑赢大市"评级。 该行在博彩行业内首选股份为银河娱乐(00027)，目标价57.5港元，评级"跑赢大市"，主要因其强劲的物 业项目储备及充足的酒店客房供应;预计今年底全面投入营运的嘉佩乐酒店，有望提升公司在高端中场 的市场份额。 ...

麦格理发表研究报告指，数据显示澳门上周的日均博彩收入为7亿澳门元，按周上升8%，贵宾厅赢率已 回复正常水平。假设本月余下时间日均博彩收入维持介乎6.6亿至7.5亿澳门元，12月的博彩总收入将达 213亿至222亿澳门元，按年升17%至22%。 该行首选股份为银河娱乐，目标价57.5港元，评级"跑赢大市"，主要因其强劲的物业项目储备及充足的 酒店客房供应；预计今年底全面投入营运的嘉佩乐酒店，有望提升公司在高端中场的市场份额。另外， 该行亦建议投资者重新审视金沙中国及美高梅中国，考虑到两者的市场份额增长及具吸引力的估值水 平；目标价分别为25.2港元及22.6港元，均获"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

12月17日晚，华谊兄弟（300027）发布公告，公司收到股东杭州阿里创业投资有限公司（以下简称"阿里创投"）和马云出具的相关文件，获悉阿里创投于 12月17日通过大宗交易方式减持公司股份，导致阿里创投及其一致行动人马云的权益变动触及1%及5%的整数倍，阿里创投的持股比例由3.467799%下降 至2.403580%，阿里创投及其一致行动人马云的持股比例由6.064215%下降至4.999996%。 | | | | 股东名称 | 股份性质 | 本次权益变动前所持股份 | | 本次权益变动后所持股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 持股数(股) | 占上市公司 总股本比例 | 持股数(股) | 占上市公司总 股本比例(%) | | | | | (%) | | | | 阿里创投 | 无限售流 通股 | 96,214,286 | 3.467799 | 66,687,466 | 2.403580 | | 马云 | | 72,037,730 | 2.596417 | 72,037,730 | 2.596417 | | 合计 | | 168,252,016 ...

阿里创投及其一致行动人马云合计持股比例由6.064215%降至4.999996%，不再是公司持股5%以上股 东。此次减持有利于公司股权结构稳定，不会对公司正常经营产生不利影响。 华谊兄弟（300027.SZ）今日公告称，公司股东阿里创投于2025年12月17日通过大宗交易方式减持 2952.68万股，持股比例由3.467799%降至2.403580%。 12月10日，华谊兄弟发布公告称，公司受经济形势影响，因部分回款资金未能如约到位，造成暂时性流 动资金紧张，使得公司阶段性出现个别债务未能如期偿还的情形。经公司相关部门统计核实，截至2025 年12月10日，公司在银行等金融机构逾期债务合计为5250万元，超过公司2024年经审计净资产的10%。 同一天，华谊兄弟还发布一份公告披露，控股股东、实际控制人王忠军持有的公司15392万股无限售流 通股股票拟被第二次司法拍卖，占其所持有公司股份总数的48.54%，占公司总股本的 5.55%。 最新的三季度财报显示，华谊兄弟该季实现营业收入6259.56万元，同比下降31.61%；归属于上市公司 股东的净亏损3946.2万元；基本每股收益-0.01元。前三季度实现营业收 ...

该行看好银河娱乐、永利澳门及美高梅中国，并视其为行业首选，目标价分别为46.9港元、8.9港元及 20.3港元，均予"买入"评级。 瑞银发表研究报告指，渠道数据显示，澳门过去七天的日均博彩总收入约为6.5亿澳门元，较前七天的 7.43亿澳门元有所回落，部分因贵宾厅赢率较低，令本月至今的日均博彩总收入维持约6.96亿澳门元， 按年增长约19%，但按月微跌约1%，相较之下2015年至19年同期通常录得1%按月升幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall recovery pace of the industry is accelerating, with growth resilience expected to continue until 2026. Galaxy Entertainment has three key highlights that provide both growth and defensive characteristics: low long-term debt ratio, sufficient cash reserves, and a project pipeline supporting future performance growth [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Galaxy Entertainment's gaming gross revenue (GGR) is projected to reach HKD 41.15 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, recovering to 69.3% of 2019 levels [2]. - Adjusted property EBITDA is expected to be HKD 12.19 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.4%, returning to 74.0% of 2019 levels, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.1% [2][5]. - The company anticipates net income for 2025-2027 to be HKD 48.297 billion, HKD 52.600 billion, and HKD 56.837 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.2%, 8.9%, and 8.1% [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Galaxy Entertainment ranks third in table share but holds the second position in gaming gross revenue share due to its operational excellence [1]. - The company is shifting focus from VIP business to high-end mass gaming, which is expected to drive future revenue growth, particularly in the high-end mass segment [2][4]. - The upcoming Galaxy Phase IV project is expected to add 1,500 hotel rooms, further enhancing the company's competitive edge [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The overall GGR in Macau is recovering, with a cumulative GGR of MOP 226.515 billion from January to November 2025, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase and recovering to 84.0% of 2019 levels [3]. - The high-end mass gaming segment is leading the growth in gaming revenue, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with intense competition among operators [4]. - The closure of satellite casinos by the end of the year will release 5.1% of market share, potentially benefiting other properties in the Macau Peninsula [3].

Investment Rating - Initiate with OUTPERFORM rating [1][2] Core Views - The overall recovery pace of the industry is accelerating, with growth resilience expected to continue until 2026. Galaxy Entertainment has three key highlights that provide both growth and defensive characteristics: 1) Long-term low debt ratio and ample cash reserves create a high safety margin; 2) Project reserves supporting future performance growth, with the fourth phase project expected to add 1,500 hotel rooms, driving the next growth cycle; 3) Although ranked third in table share, the company ranks second in gaming gross revenue (GGR) share due to excellent operational capabilities [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Focus - Galaxy Entertainment's current price is HK$38.78 with a target price of HK$47.50, representing a market capitalization of HK$169.83 billion (US$21.82 billion) [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are Rmb 43,432 million, Rmb 48,297 million, Rmb 52,600 million, and Rmb 56,837 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 11%, 9%, and 8%. Net profit is expected to grow from Rmb 8,759 million in 2024 to Rmb 12,705 million in 2027, with a diluted EPS of Rmb 2.00 in 2024 rising to Rmb 2.90 in 2027 [2][7]. Business Overview - Galaxy Entertainment operates a series of integrated resorts, hotels, and entertainment projects in Macau, with a focus on expanding its business footprint. The company has three flagship properties, including the award-winning StarWorld Hotel and the luxurious Galaxy Macau [8][9]. Market Position - The company is transitioning from a focus on VIP gaming to high-end mass gaming, with a significant increase in gaming gross revenue (GGR) expected. In 2024, the company's GGR reached HK$41.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, recovering to 69.3% of 2019 levels [4][26][30]. Future Growth Drivers - The fourth phase project is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness, adding 1,500 hotel rooms and various entertainment facilities, projected to be completed by 2027. This will increase the company's hotel room share from 18.0% to 21.8% [50][51]. Operational Efficiency - Galaxy Entertainment maintains a low debt ratio and strong cash reserves, allowing for shareholder returns through dividends and supporting future development plans. The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve with the opening of new hotel brands [46][50].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The firm continues to favor MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) as top picks, anticipating that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - Q4 and Q1 of the following year are expected to maintain double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividend payouts for gaming companies [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts that Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators will grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year, despite high operating expenses, with potential improvements in profit margins [1] - Morgan Stanley assigns a "Market Perform" rating to Galaxy Entertainment, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, lowering the target price from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, maintaining a target price of HKD 23 [1]

Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The firm anticipates that Q4 and Q1 of the following year will still see double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividends for gaming companies [1] Company Analysis - MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) are highlighted as top picks, with expectations that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - For Galaxy Entertainment, Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, adjusting the target price from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, with the target price remaining at HKD 23 [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The firm expects Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators' properties to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and by 6% year-on-year, indicating potential margin improvements despite high operating expenses [1]