Core Viewpoint - The overall recovery pace of the industry is accelerating, with growth resilience expected to continue until 2026. Galaxy Entertainment has three key highlights that provide both growth and defensive characteristics: low long-term debt ratio, sufficient cash reserves, and a project pipeline supporting future performance growth [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Galaxy Entertainment's gaming gross revenue (GGR) is projected to reach HKD 41.15 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, recovering to 69.3% of 2019 levels [2]. - Adjusted property EBITDA is expected to be HKD 12.19 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.4%, returning to 74.0% of 2019 levels, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.1% [2][5]. - The company anticipates net income for 2025-2027 to be HKD 48.297 billion, HKD 52.600 billion, and HKD 56.837 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.2%, 8.9%, and 8.1% [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Galaxy Entertainment ranks third in table share but holds the second position in gaming gross revenue share due to its operational excellence [1]. - The company is shifting focus from VIP business to high-end mass gaming, which is expected to drive future revenue growth, particularly in the high-end mass segment [2][4]. - The upcoming Galaxy Phase IV project is expected to add 1,500 hotel rooms, further enhancing the company's competitive edge [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The overall GGR in Macau is recovering, with a cumulative GGR of MOP 226.515 billion from January to November 2025, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase and recovering to 84.0% of 2019 levels [3]. - The high-end mass gaming segment is leading the growth in gaming revenue, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with intense competition among operators [4]. - The closure of satellite casinos by the end of the year will release 5.1% of market share, potentially benefiting other properties in the Macau Peninsula [3].

Investment Rating - Initiate with OUTPERFORM rating [1][2] Core Views - The overall recovery pace of the industry is accelerating, with growth resilience expected to continue until 2026. Galaxy Entertainment has three key highlights that provide both growth and defensive characteristics: 1) Long-term low debt ratio and ample cash reserves create a high safety margin; 2) Project reserves supporting future performance growth, with the fourth phase project expected to add 1,500 hotel rooms, driving the next growth cycle; 3) Although ranked third in table share, the company ranks second in gaming gross revenue (GGR) share due to excellent operational capabilities [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Focus - Galaxy Entertainment's current price is HK$38.78 with a target price of HK$47.50, representing a market capitalization of HK$169.83 billion (US$21.82 billion) [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are Rmb 43,432 million, Rmb 48,297 million, Rmb 52,600 million, and Rmb 56,837 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 11%, 9%, and 8%. Net profit is expected to grow from Rmb 8,759 million in 2024 to Rmb 12,705 million in 2027, with a diluted EPS of Rmb 2.00 in 2024 rising to Rmb 2.90 in 2027 [2][7]. Business Overview - Galaxy Entertainment operates a series of integrated resorts, hotels, and entertainment projects in Macau, with a focus on expanding its business footprint. The company has three flagship properties, including the award-winning StarWorld Hotel and the luxurious Galaxy Macau [8][9]. Market Position - The company is transitioning from a focus on VIP gaming to high-end mass gaming, with a significant increase in gaming gross revenue (GGR) expected. In 2024, the company's GGR reached HK$41.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, recovering to 69.3% of 2019 levels [4][26][30]. Future Growth Drivers - The fourth phase project is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness, adding 1,500 hotel rooms and various entertainment facilities, projected to be completed by 2027. This will increase the company's hotel room share from 18.0% to 21.8% [50][51]. Operational Efficiency - Galaxy Entertainment maintains a low debt ratio and strong cash reserves, allowing for shareholder returns through dividends and supporting future development plans. The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve with the opening of new hotel brands [46][50].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The firm continues to favor MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) as top picks, anticipating that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - Q4 and Q1 of the following year are expected to maintain double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividend payouts for gaming companies [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts that Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators will grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year, despite high operating expenses, with potential improvements in profit margins [1] - Morgan Stanley assigns a "Market Perform" rating to Galaxy Entertainment, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, lowering the target price from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, maintaining a target price of HKD 23 [1]

Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The firm anticipates that Q4 and Q1 of the following year will still see double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividends for gaming companies [1] Company Analysis - MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) are highlighted as top picks, with expectations that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - For Galaxy Entertainment, Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, adjusting the target price from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, with the target price remaining at HKD 23 [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The firm expects Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators' properties to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and by 6% year-on-year, indicating potential margin improvements despite high operating expenses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] Industry Summary - The forecast indicates that Q4 and Q1 of the following year will still see double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividends for gaming companies [1] - Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators is expected to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year, despite high operating expenses, with potential improvements in profit margins [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley continues to favor MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) as top picks, anticipating that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - For Galaxy Entertainment, a "Market Perform" rating is given, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, with a target price reduced from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, maintaining a target price of HKD 23 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from 兴证国际 initiates coverage on Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the effectiveness of the company's mid-to-high-end strategy and its potential for growth through new supply and market share gains [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net income reached HKD 12.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 3.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year but down 6% quarter-on-quarter, with an overall adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has outpaced the industry average, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy - For H1 2025, the company declared a dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, which accounts for 58% of the earnings per share (EPS) during the period, indicating a robust and generous dividend policy [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.5% [3] Group 3: Betting and Win Rates - In Q3 2025, the company's betting amounts for VIP, mass market, and slot machines were HKD 65 billion, HKD 35.4 billion, and HKD 27.4 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 46%, 12%, and 3%, respectively [4] - The overall win rate improved due to the adoption of smart tables and increased innovative gameplay, contributing to growth in Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) [4] Group 4: Market Share - The company's GGR for Q3 2025 was HKD 20.95 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, which is higher than the industry average growth of 12.5% [5] - The company's market share for Q3 2025 was calculated at 19.6%, with a cumulative market share of 19.4% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingsheng International initiates coverage on Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the effectiveness of the company's mid-to-high-end strategy and its potential for growth through new developments and market share increases [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net income reached HKD 12.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 3.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year but down 6% quarter-on-quarter, with an overall adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has outpaced the industry average, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy - For H1 2025, the company declared a dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, which represents 58% of the earnings per share (EPS) for the period, indicating a robust and generous dividend policy [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.5% [3] Group 3: Betting and Win Rates - In Q3 2025, the company's betting amounts for VIP, mass market, and slot machines were HKD 65 billion, HKD 35.4 billion, and HKD 27.4 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 46%, 12%, and 3% respectively [4] - The overall win rate improved due to the adoption of smart tables and innovative gameplay, contributing to the growth of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) [4] Group 4: Market Share - The company's GGR for Q3 2025 was HKD 20.95 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, which is higher than the industry average growth of 12.5% [5] - The company's market share for Q3 2025 was calculated at 19.6%, with a cumulative market share of 19.4% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase [5]

Group 1 - Moody's has confirmed the issuer ratings of Hyundai Motor Company, Kia Corporation, and Hyundai Mobis Co., Ltd. at "A3" [1] - Kia Corporation's senior unsecured rating is also rated "A3" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie expresses optimism about Galaxy Entertainment (00027) due to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply, with the upcoming full operation of the Galaxy Hotel expected to enhance its share in the premium mass market [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Galaxy Entertainment is anticipated to benefit from the opening of the Galaxy Hotel, which is expected to boost its market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Macquarie suggests investors reassess Sands China (01928) and MGM China (02282), highlighting both companies' potential for market share growth and attractive valuation levels [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - Third-party data indicates that Macau's gaming revenue increased by 32% year-on-year over the past week, with improvements in the first week of the month, suggesting a return of major players to gaming activities post-Asian Games [1] - Average daily gaming revenue in the mass market grew by 5% to 8% compared to November, while VIP room daily gaming revenue increased by 6% to 8%, with VIP win rates ranging from 2.9% to 3.2%, down from 3.2% to 3.5% in November [1] - Macquarie expects December gaming revenue to maintain the momentum from the previous month, projecting a double-digit year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Market Share Expectations - Macquarie forecasts that Wynn Macau (01128) and SJM Holdings (00880) will capture the most market share in November, with increases of 1.5 and 1 percentage points, respectively, while Sands China and MGM China are expected to each gain 0.5 percentage points [1] - Sands China's market share has steadily rebounded over the past few months, reaching a 13-month high of 24.5% in November [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie is optimistic about Galaxy Entertainment (00027) due to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply, with the upcoming opening of the Galaxy Hotel expected to enhance its market share in the premium mass segment [1] Company Analysis - Galaxy Entertainment is expected to benefit from the opening of the Galaxy Hotel by the end of this year, which will likely boost its market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Sands China (01928) and MGM China (02282) are recommended for investors to reassess, as both companies possess growth advantages in market share and attractive valuation levels [1] Industry Insights - Third-party data indicates that Macau's gaming revenue increased by 32% year-on-year over the past week, with improvements in the first week of the month compared to the previous month, suggesting a return of major players to gaming activities post-Asian Games [1] - Average daily gaming revenue in the mass market grew by 5% to 8% compared to November, while VIP room daily gaming revenue increased by 6% to 8%, with VIP win rates ranging from 2.9% to 3.2%, down from 3.2% to 3.5% in November [1] - Macquarie anticipates that December's gaming revenue will maintain the momentum from the previous month, with a year-on-year double-digit growth expected [1] Market Share Projections - Macquarie predicts that Wynn Macau (01128) and SJM Holdings (00880) will gain the most market share in November, with increases of 1.5 and 1 percentage points, respectively, while Sands China and MGM China are expected to each gain 0.5 percentage points [1] - Sands China's market share has steadily rebounded over the past few months, reaching a 13-month high of 24.5% in November [1]