Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in spot trading sentiment, suggesting potential for performance improvement and valuation rebound, referred to as a "Davis Double" [4]. - The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 were HKD 159.9 billion and HKD 92.7 billion, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 2% and flat growth [4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in trading activity driven by domestic growth policies and global interest rate cuts, which could lead to improved performance and valuation for the exchange [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to HKD 127 billion, HKD 140 billion, and HKD 153 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.8%, 10.6%, and 9.1% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are HKD 10.0, HKD 11.1, and HKD 12.1, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.1, 28.1, and 25.8 [4][5]. - The trading fee and settlement revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 7% and 9%, respectively, while IPO activities are gradually improving [4]. Market Conditions - The report emphasizes the cyclical improvement in trading sentiment due to global liquidity changes and domestic policy support, which is expected to enhance trading volumes in the Hong Kong market [4]. - The diversification strategy involving mutual market access, derivatives, and LME is yielding positive results, with a notable increase in IPO activities and market liquidity [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the overall performance of Hong Kong Exchanges is stable with an increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue and other income rising by 2.13% year-on-year to HKD 15.993 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 0.05% year-on-year to HKD 9.270 billion [1] - The report anticipates a significant uplift in trading volumes in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by improved market sentiment and policy benefits [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue and net profit reached HKD 15.993 billion and HKD 9.270 billion respectively, marking the second-highest figures for the same period in history, only behind the record set in 2021 [1] - Revenue from various segments showed mixed results: cash market revenue increased by 2%, derivatives revenue decreased by 10%, commodities revenue surged by 31%, data and connectivity revenue grew by 1%, and company projects revenue rose by 18% [1] - The EBITDA for the segments varied, with cash market EBITDA slightly up by 0.2%, derivatives down by 15%, commodities up by 61%, data and connectivity stable, and company projects showing a significant decline [1] Market Activity - The report notes a recovery in trading sentiment in September 2024, with significant growth in the primary market, highlighted by the listing of Midea Group, which became the largest IPO in Asia for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The average daily turnover in the cash market for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 5% year-on-year to HKD 102.7 billion, with northbound trading via Stock Connect seeing increases of 22% and 6% respectively [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report has revised its profit forecasts upward, projecting net profits for 2024-2026 to be HKD 12.835 billion, HKD 13.946 billion, and HKD 14.888 billion respectively, with growth rates of 8.21%, 8.65%, and 6.76% [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to P/E ratios of 30.80x, 28.35x, and 26.55x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]

Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the group's revenue and profit reached the second-highest record in history, with revenue of HKD 5.372 billion, a 6% increase from HKD 5.084 billion in the same period of 2023[2]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue and other income decreased by 1% to 5,372 million HKD compared to Q2 2024, with main business revenue down 4% to 4,852 million HKD[8]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue and other income reached 15,993 million HKD, a 2% increase from 15,659 million HKD in the same period of 2023[11]. - The company reported a shareholder profit of 3,145 million HKD in Q3 2024, remaining stable compared to Q2 2024[10]. - Total revenue and other income for the first three quarters of 2024 was HKD 16 billion, a 2% increase from the same period in 2023, attributed to increased trading and settlement fees[15]. - The profit attributable to shareholders for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was HKD 9.270 billion, compared to HKD 9.265 billion in the same period of 2023[55]. - Total comprehensive income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was 9,517 million HKD, compared to 9,345 million HKD for the same period in 2023, reflecting an increase of 1.84%[56]. Trading Volume and Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect (Shanghai and Shenzhen) reached a nine-month high, with an average daily trading amount of RMB 110.3 billion, up 4% from RMB 106.1 billion in the previous year[3]. - The average daily trading amount of the Hong Kong Stock Connect increased by 37% to HKD 39.6 billion, compared to HKD 29.0 billion in the same period last year[6]. - The average daily trading volume for equity securities on the exchange decreased by 4% to 107.2 billion HKD in Q3 2024 compared to Q2 2024[9]. - The average daily trading volume for derivatives increased by 18% to 11.6 billion HKD in Q3 2024 compared to Q2 2024[9]. - The average daily trading volume for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 3% compared to the same period in 2023, with derivatives contracts up 12% and LME fee-paying metal contracts up 25%[14]. - The average daily trading volume for the LME fee-paying metal contracts reached a new high, reflecting strong market activity[14]. - The average daily trading volume for ETPs reached a nine-month high of RMB 154 billion, an 8% increase from RMB 142 billion in the first three quarters of 2023[22]. Investment Income - The company's net investment income increased by 41% to HKD 507 million, up from HKD 360 million in the third quarter of 2023[5]. - The net investment income from company funds increased by 39% to 507 million HKD in Q3 2024, up from 366 million HKD in Q2 2024[8]. - The net investment income from company funds rose by 20% to 1,408 million HKD in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to 1,177 million HKD in the same period of 2023[11]. - The total net investment income from margin and clearing house funds was HKD 2.32 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, down from HKD 2.71 billion in the same period of 2023[48]. Operating Expenses - Operating expenses decreased by 1% to 1,365 million HKD in Q3 2024, primarily due to reduced charitable donations, although professional fees increased[8]. - Operating expenses increased by 6% to 4,159 million HKD in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by higher employee and IT costs[11]. - Operating expenses rose to HKD 4.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a 6% increase from the previous year, primarily due to higher employee costs and IT expenses[15]. - Operating expenses (excluding charitable donations) increased by 4% in the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to salary adjustments and strategic hiring[45]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure increased by 26% to HKD 415 million, compared to HKD 329 million in the previous year[5]. - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters of 2024 was HKD 1.027 billion, compared to HKD 0.830 billion in the same period of 2023[50]. - As of September 30, 2024, the group's capital expenditure commitments amounted to HKD 1.506 billion, slightly down from HKD 1.555 billion on December 31, 2023[50]. Market Developments and Future Plans - The company successfully implemented measures to maintain normal trading in adverse weather conditions, reinforcing its position as a leading international trading and risk management center[2]. - The company plans to continue enhancing the vitality, resilience, and competitiveness of the Hong Kong market, focusing on product enrichment and international partnerships[2]. - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its technology infrastructure to support future growth[15]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange implemented measures to enhance market transparency and compliance culture during the third quarter of 2024[23]. Shareholder Information - The group does not intend to declare a dividend for the third quarter of 2024, consistent with the previous year[54]. - Basic earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was HKD 7.33, compared to HKD 7.32 in the same period of 2023[55]. Assets and Liabilities - The company's total assets reached 485,458 million HKD as of September 30, 2024, a significant increase from 341,179 million HKD as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of 42.25%[57]. - The company’s liabilities totaled 434,334 million HKD as of September 30, 2024, up from 289,383 million HKD at the end of 2023, marking a rise of 50.14%[57]. - Cash and cash equivalents amounted to 227,757 million HKD as of September 30, 2024, compared to 125,107 million HKD at the end of 2023, showing an increase of 82.06%[57]. Compliance and Regulatory Matters - The consultation period for proposed amendments to the listing rules, aimed at aligning Hong Kong practices with global standards, ended on October 18, 2024[23]. - LME received 33 responses to its consultation on the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and plans to require approved aluminum brands to report emissions data according to CBAM methods[37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to reach a quarterly performance peak in Q4 2024, with current valuations having returned to a safe margin [6][28] - The trading volume is anticipated to benefit directly from increased activity, while investment income remains high due to the lagging effect of margin investment returns relative to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [28] Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a reversal in late September, with trading activity significantly increasing [10] - As of the end of September 2024, the total market capitalization of listed securities on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 36.92 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.2% [10] - The average daily trading (ADT) for September was HKD 1,692 billion, up 77.1% quarter-on-quarter [10][14] Performance Forecasts - For Q3 2024, the company is projected to have a single-quarter net profit of HKD 3.326 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [26] - The total revenue and investment income for Q3 2024 is expected to be HKD 5.574 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [26] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue and investment income are projected to be HKD 161.95 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6% [26] Q4 Performance Elasticity - The company’s performance in Q4 2024 is expected to show high elasticity, with ADT reaching new highs since September 24 [5][26] - If ADT reaches HKD 4,000 billion, 3,000 billion, and 2,000 billion in Q4, the projected net profits for the year would be HKD 148.55 billion, HKD 141.58 billion, and HKD 134.62 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 19%, and 13% [5][27] Investment Recommendations - The company is recommended for investment due to the anticipated peak in quarterly performance and the current valuation being within a safe margin [6][28] - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are HKD 134.62 billion, HKD 138.73 billion, and HKD 145.77 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 13.5%, 3.1%, and 5.1% [6][28]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supportive policies from the Chinese government are expected to catalyze a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, benefiting the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) [3][4] - The report anticipates a rebound in the average daily trading (ADT) volume for Hong Kong stocks, projecting ADT to reach HKD 1,117 billion in 2024, with further increases to HKD 1,324 billion in 2025 and HKD 1,529 billion in 2026 [3][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised upwards for 2024-2026, with expected figures of HKD 124.7 billion, HKD 132.4 billion, and HKD 142.7 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 7.7% [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 21,536 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [4] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12,473 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [4] - The report indicates an EBITDA margin of 79.9% for 2024, with a net profit margin of 57.9% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be HKD 9.8, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.3 [4] - The report also notes that the total market capitalization of HKEX is HKD 3,329.34 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of the same amount [1][4]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supportive policies from the Chinese government are expected to catalyze a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, benefiting the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) [2][3] - The report predicts a rebound in the average daily trading volume (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks, with forecasts of HKD 1,117 billion for 2024, HKD 1,324 billion for 2025, and HKD 1,529 billion for 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 7.7% respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates an improvement in the company's performance and valuation, projecting net profit for 2024 to be HKD 12.473 billion, with a corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 9.8 [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 21,536 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3][6] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at HKD 12,473 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3][6] - The report indicates that the EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable around 79.9% for 2024 [3][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.5 times in September 2023 to 26.3 times in 2024, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][3] Market Activity and Trends - The report notes that the trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market has improved, with a recent increase of 14.9% in HKEX's stock price from September 19 to September 24, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 7.3% [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the liquidity improvement is expected to directly benefit HKEX's trading and settlement business, with trading settlement revenue accounting for 56% of total revenue in the first half of 2024 [2][3] - The report also highlights the potential for a rebound in investment scale and profitability, with investment income expected to contribute 24% to total revenue in 2024 [2][3]

香港交易所(00388) / 非银金融 / 公司跟踪研究报告 / 2024.09.12 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-11 | | 收盘价 ( 港元 ) | 220.80 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 12.68 | | 每股净资产 ( 港元 ) | 39.02 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 12.68 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -28% -21% -13% -6% 2% 9% 香港交易所 恒生指数 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号：S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《二季度交投活跃显著改善，上半年 整体业绩稳健》 2024-08-21 2. 《业绩继续改善，美联储降息交易或 重返市场主线》 2024-07-12 3. 《交投活跃度进一步改善，阿尔法优 势仍在》 2024-06-14 ❖ 市场环境方面：1）现货方面，8 月港股市场触 ...

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the total revenue and other income of HKEX was HKD 10.621 billion, remaining stable compared to HKD 10.575 billion in the same period of 2023[14]. - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was HKD 6.125 billion, a decrease of 3% from HKD 6.312 billion in the first half of 2023[15]. - The EBITDA margin for the first half of 2024 was 73%, down 2 percentage points from the same period in 2023[14]. - The basic earnings per share for the first half of 2024 was HKD 4.84, down 3% from HKD 4.99 in the same period of 2023[15]. - Total revenue and other income for Q2 2024 reached HKD 54.20 billion, an 8% increase from HKD 50.17 billion in Q2 2023, driven by higher trading volumes in spot and derivative markets[17]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2024 was HKD 31.55 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from HKD 28.94 billion in Q2 2023[17]. - The EBITDA margin for Q2 2024 was 74%, up 1 percentage point from the same quarter last year[17]. - Revenue and other income for the first half of 2024 decreased by 2% to HKD 10,621 million compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to a decline in average daily trading volume of equity securities products[42]. - The operating profit for the first half of 2024 was HKD 6,963 million, compared to HKD 6,312 million for the same period in 2023[85]. - The profit for the period was HKD 6,186 million, down 2.9% from HKD 6,368 million in the previous year[139]. Trading Volume and Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of LME's metal contracts increased by 29% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[5]. - The number of new listings and fundraising amounts in the second quarter rose by 50% and 79% respectively compared to the first quarter of 2024[5]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the average daily trading amount of equity securities on the exchange was HKD 100.3 billion, a decrease of 3% compared to HKD 102.9 billion for the same period in 2023[16]. - The average daily trading amount of derivatives, including warrants and callable bull/bear contracts, was HKD 10.1 billion, down 20% from HKD 12.6 billion year-over-year[16]. - The average daily trading amount for the Stock Connect (Shanghai and Shenzhen) was RMB 130.2 billion, a 19% increase from RMB 109.3 billion in the previous year[16]. - The average daily trading amount for the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 37.5 billion, an 11% increase from HKD 33.8 billion year-over-year[16]. - The average daily trading volume of LME fee-paying metal contracts increased by 29% year-on-year, reflecting a strong market performance[28]. - The average daily trading volume of stock options contracts increased by 16% to 747,000 contracts compared to the previous quarter[22]. - The average daily trading volume of derivative contracts reached a new high, increasing by 12% compared to the first half of 2023[39]. - The average daily trading volume of southbound and northbound ETFs reached HKD 1.5 billion and RMB 1.1 billion, respectively, in the first half of 2024[50]. Operating Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses increased by 7% to HKD 2.794 billion, driven by higher employee and IT costs[14]. - Operating expenses increased by 5% in Q2 2024, primarily due to higher employee and IT costs, although some legal costs related to the nickel market incident were partially recovered[17]. - Employee-related expenses rose by 13% to HKD 1,937 million, primarily due to salary adjustments and one-time retirement benefits for senior management[80]. - IT maintenance costs increased by 10% to HKD 421 million, attributed to system upgrades and inflation adjustments during renewals[81]. - Total operating expenses increased by 7% to HKD 2,794 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 2,622 million for the same period in 2023[80]. Capital Expenditure and Investments - Capital expenditure for Q2 2024 was HKD 334 million, representing a 28% increase from HKD 261 million in Q2 2023[18]. - Capital expenditures for the first half of 2024 amounted to HKD 0.612 billion, an increase from HKD 0.501 billion in the same period of 2023, focusing on the development of trading and settlement systems[97]. - The company plans to launch a new derivatives product platform by 2028 to enhance trading, clearing, and risk management capabilities[31]. - The company committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2024 and net-zero emissions by 2040, with a donation of HKD 74 million to support social initiatives in the first half of 2024[32]. Regulatory and Compliance - The exchange plans to implement measures for trading during adverse weather conditions starting September 23, 2024, enhancing market resilience[30]. - The exchange is optimizing its ESG framework for climate information disclosure, effective January 1, 2025, to align with international standards[29]. - A consultation document was issued on June 28, 2024, proposing to lower the minimum price fluctuation for stocks in the Hong Kong securities market to improve liquidity and competitiveness[47]. - The exchange implemented measures to enhance market surveillance and compliance, including the completion of the 2023 compliance assessment and the launch of the 2024 annual plan[53]. Shareholder Information - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 4.36 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024[126]. - The interim dividend payment will be issued on September 17, 2024[126]. - The company encourages shareholders to view communications electronically to support environmental sustainability[130]. - The total number of shares granted under the share award scheme since its adoption is 18,223,863 shares, accounting for approximately 1.7% of the total issued shares as of the adoption date[121]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company announced a significant technology investment project to develop the "Navigator Star Derivatives Platform" to enhance market competitiveness[5]. - The company is actively expanding the list of eligible assets for structured products, aiming to enhance market efficiency and liquidity[64]. - The company is committed to adhering to the ISSB climate-related disclosure standards, which were released in June 2023[198]. - The HKEX is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position and expand its service offerings[198].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/金融/综合金融服务 证券研究报告 香港交易所（388.HK）公司半年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 沪股通日均交易额创历史新高，上半年归 母净利润同比小幅下滑 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 【事件】香港交易所发布 2024 年中期业绩：2024 年上半年实现收入及其他 收益 106.21 亿港元，同比+0.4%，归母净利润 61.25 亿港元，同比-3.0%。上 半年 ROE（未年化） 11.8%，同比-0.7pct。2024Q2 实现收入及其他收益 54.2 亿港元，同比+8.0%，归母净利润 31.55 亿港元，同比+8.6%；二季度 ROE（未 年化）为 6.2%，同比+0.3pct。 二季度交投大幅回升。2024 年上半年现货分部实现收入及其他收益 41.29 亿 港元，同比-1.8%，收入占比 39%。上半年现货市场日均交易额同比-4%至 1104 亿港元。Q2 交投大幅回升，日均成交金额为 1216 亿港元，同比+18%，环比 +22%。沪深港通北向及南向每日平均成交额分别为 1302 亿元和 375 亿港元， 分别+19.1 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 2024 年 08 月 23 日 香港交易所(00388.HK) H1 业绩整体持平，交投转暖驱动 Q2 新高 ■事件：近日，公司披露 2024 年半年报，2024H1 实现收入及其他收益 106 亿 港元，同比+0.4%；归母净利润 61 亿港元，同比-3%；EPS 为 4.84 港元，同比 -3%。2024Q2 单季实现收入及其他收益 54 亿港元，同比+8%；归母净利润 32 亿港元，同比+9%；EPS 为 2.49 港元，同比+9%。 ■H1 收入整体持平，Q2 单季业绩创新高。1）从 2024H1 业绩来看：各业务分 部表现不一，合计主要业务收入同比基本持平，雇员、资讯技术费用增加带动 营运支出同比+7%，拖累归母净利润同比-3%。2）从 2024Q2 单季业绩来看：收 入及其他收益、净利润指标均创历年 Q2 新高，主要受益于①市场交投回暖 （2024Q2 联交所 ADT 同比+18%/环比+22%至 1216 亿港元，衍生品合约 ADV 同比 +19%，LME 收费交易金属合约 ADV 亦创 10 年季度新高值，同比+27%），交易及 结算费增 ...