Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) More listings and new product launches to drive further upside; Buy 30 May 2025 | 4:36PM HKT 0388.HK 12m Price Target: HK$455.00 Price: HK$400.40 Upside: 13.6% Although HKEX's share price has rallied ~35% ytd, on teens percent EPS upgrades and valuation expansion, it remains undervalued, in our view, relative to relatively strong recent market activity levels. Further, the listing pipeline has been building up with decent execution over the last few months. However, despite the ...

Core Viewpoint - The shareholding percentage of Bank of America in Bilibili-W has decreased from 8.02% to 7.72% as of May 28 [1] Company Summary - Bank of America's stake in Bilibili-W has seen a reduction, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy or confidence in the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in April, with active trading and positive expectations for continued growth in the exchange's performance [1][2]. Market Segments Cash Market - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 10% and 14% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 274.7 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% but a year-on-year increase of 144.7% [1]. - Northbound capital's monthly ADT was HKD 973.2 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 20% and a year-on-year increase of 20%. Southbound capital's monthly ADT was HKD 191.1 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 145% [1]. Derivatives Market - Futures trading volume increased month-on-month, while options trading volume decreased. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 841,000 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. The ADV for options was 1,003,000 contracts, showing a month-on-month decrease of 6.0% but a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [1]. Commodity Market - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw an increase in trading volume both month-on-month and year-on-year, with an average daily trading volume of 880,000 contracts, up 10.6% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [2]. Primary Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with two new stocks listed in April, totaling HKD 2.9 billion, down 73% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [2]. Investment Income - Investment income rates related to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. As of the end of April, the 6-month HIBOR was 4.03%, the 1-month HIBOR was 3.95%, the overnight HIBOR was 4.50%, and the US overnight bank funding rate was 4.33% [2]. Macroeconomic Environment Domestic Factors - The overall economic sentiment in China declined, with both supply and demand weakening. The manufacturing PMI for April was 49.0%, down 1.50 percentage points month-on-month. New orders and new export orders indices were 49.2% and 44.7%, down 2.60 and 4.30 percentage points respectively [3]. International Factors - The pause in interest rate cuts has led to tightening liquidity overseas, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%. The market expects no rate cuts until June 2025, with a projected 25 basis point cut in September 2025 and a total of 50 basis points for the year [3]. Investment Recommendations - As of the end of April, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was 30.52x, indicating a high cost-performance ratio. The company is expected to see revenue and other income of HKD 29.1 billion, 30.6 billion, and 32.1 billion for 2025-2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17.3 billion, 18.2 billion, and 19.2 billion respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 29.2x, 27.7x, and 26.2x [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][45] Core Views - The company's PE ratio is 30.52x as of the end of April, positioned at the 20th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a reasonable cost-benefit ratio for investment. The report anticipates that with the continued enhancement of the mutual access policy in Hong Kong's capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is expected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 291 billion, 306 billion, and 321 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 173 billion, 182 billion, and 192 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 29.2x, 27.7x, and 26.2x respectively [2][7][45]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In April, the Hong Kong stock market overall rose, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech increasing by 10% and 14% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The monthly average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 2,747 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% but a year-on-year increase of 144.7% [7][10][16]. Business Segments - **Spot Market**: The trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market remained high, with the monthly ADT for northbound funds at HKD 9,732 billion, down 20% month-on-month but up 20% year-on-year. Southbound funds had an ADT of HKD 1,911 billion, down 3% month-on-month but up 145% year-on-year [7][16]. - **Derivatives Market**: Futures trading volume increased, while options trading volume decreased. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 84.1 million contracts, up 5.6% month-on-month and 23.2% year-on-year, while options ADV was 100.3 million contracts, down 6.0% month-on-month but up 14.0% year-on-year [20]. - **Commodity Market**: The LME daily average trading volume was 88.0 million contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [24]. - **Primary Market**: The IPO scale in April saw a decrease, with only 2 new stocks listed, totaling HKD 29 billion, down 73% month-on-month and down 6% year-on-year [26]. Investment Income - Investment income-related interest rates showed a month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decline. As of the end of April, the 6-month HIBOR was 4.03%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month but down 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [33][45]. Macroeconomic Environment - The domestic economic sentiment has generally declined, with the manufacturing PMI for April at 49.0%, down 1.50 percentage points month-on-month. The demand side showed weakness, with new orders and new export orders indices at 49.2% and 44.7% respectively [37][39].

Group 1 - JPMorgan's stake in China Pacific Insurance has decreased from 7.27% to 6.55% as of May 26 [1] - The average share price during this period was 15.1359 HKD [1]

Group 1 - BlackRock's stake in Meituan-W decreased from 6.11% to 5.84% as of May 27 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEx) is Neutral [1][6][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights constructive takeaways from the Global China Summit 2025, indicating improvements in the IPO pipeline and opportunities for Connect over the medium term, which are seen as positives for Greater China equity markets [1][5]. - HKEx has experienced an increase in listing applications, reaching around 150, driven by interest from A-share companies and potential ADR homecoming [5]. - The report forecasts total securities average daily turnover (ADT) of HK$341 billion, HK$337 billion, and HK$367 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [10]. Summary by Sections Investment Thesis - The investment thesis remains Neutral on HKEx, reflecting a balanced view over the next 12 months [6][10]. Valuation - The price target for HKEx is set at HK$340, based on a dynamic P/E of 32.5x, which aligns with the mean [7][19]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that HKEx has delivered a 10% EPS CAGR since the launch of the Connect mechanism, which has facilitated cross-border capital flow [10]. - The report identifies that only a small portion of the 200 million onshore investors currently participate in Southbound trading, indicating potential for growth [5][10]. - The launch of MSCI A-share futures is expected to enhance HKEx's position in the equity derivatives market [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) with a target price of HKD 340 for the next 12 months [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that improvements in the new stock listing channels for Hong Kong Exchanges are a significant long-term benefit for the Greater China stock market, as the Stock Connect programs have fundamentally changed the investment landscape for both Hong Kong and mainland Chinese investors since their launch in 2014 [1] - It mentions that there are 26 Chinese concept stocks, which are constituents of the MSCI China and FTSE China indices, that have not yet been listed in Hong Kong, with a total market capitalization of USD 237 billion and an average daily trading volume of USD 2 billion over the past three months, representing approximately 5% and 6% of Hong Kong Exchanges' current market capitalization and daily trading volume, respectively [1] - According to sensitivity analysis, if all these stocks were to list in Hong Kong, it is anticipated that the earnings per share for Hong Kong Exchanges would increase by 6% by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - BlackRock's stake in AIA decreased from 6.03% to 5.90% as of May 22 [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to increase the trading limits for futures and options contracts on the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index, pending regulatory approval [1] - The proposed change is set to take effect on July 2, 2025 [1] - This adjustment aims to enhance market liquidity and trading flexibility for participants [1]