Key TakeawaysAlibaba Group (9988.HK) shares are poised to open 2% higher in Hong Kong as investors anticipate the company's latest earnings report.Hong Kong’s financial sector added 4,800 jobs in the 12 months ending September 2025, driven by a significant revival in the IPO market.Structural staff cuts persist at several investment banks despite the hiring surge, as firms remain focused on reining in costs in non-core divisions.Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying, with the Securities and Futures Commission ...

2月18日，香港交易所继续休市，南、北向交易关闭。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in January, with high trading activity expected to continue, leading to anticipated growth in the performance of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 6.9% and 3.7% respectively compared to the end of 2025 [1]. - The average daily trading (ADT) for HKEX in January was HKD 272.3 billion, representing a month-on-month increase of 46.4% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3% [1]. - Northbound trading ADT reached HKD 407.7 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 77.5% and 122.6% respectively [1]. - Southbound trading ADT was HKD 121.3 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 45.0% and 96.2% respectively [1]. Derivatives Market - The futures average daily volume (ADV) was 658,000 contracts, showing month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 27.3% and 11.9% respectively [1]. - The options ADV was 1,048,000 contracts, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 27.4% and 21.3% respectively [1]. - As of the end of January, the ADT for structured products was HKD 22 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 47.7% and 91.0% respectively [1]. IPO Market - In January, the IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 41.7 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 58% and 598% respectively [2]. - A total of 13 new stocks were listed in January, with new structured products also seeing significant increases in numbers [2]. Interest Rates - Investment income-related rates for HKEX showed a downward trend, with the 6-month HIBOR at 2.89%, down 0.10 percentage points month-on-month [2]. Macro Environment - Domestic economic indicators showed a decline, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.30%, indicating a contraction [2]. - The U.S. job market showed improvement, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, which may affect interest rate expectations [2]. Investment Outlook - As of February 9, 2026, the company's PE ratio was 30.86x, indicating a reasonable valuation compared to historical levels [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 30.1 billion, HKD 35.7 billion, and HKD 38.4 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 17.7 billion, HKD 21.3 billion, and HKD 22.8 billion [3]. - The company is rated as a buy, with expectations of increased market liquidity and valuation due to ongoing policy support for the Hong Kong capital market [3].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) stock price has remained flat year-to-date, underperforming the Hang Seng Index, reflecting investor concerns over the decline in the quality of listing documents as pointed out by the Securities and Futures Commission, and worries regarding the moderate profit growth outlook for FY2026 due to high average daily trading volume and declining investment income [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - HKEX stock price has been flat year-to-date, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index [1] - Investor concerns are driven by the decline in the quality of listing documents and the pace of new listings [1] - The average daily trading volume is relatively high, contributing to worries about declining investment income [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook and Valuation - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for HKEX with a target price of HKD 546 unchanged [1] - Despite concerns, there is optimism due to a rapid pace of new listings since February, with new listed companies showing strong stock performance, averaging a 64% increase [1] - Excluding investment income, HKEX is expected to see annual profit growth of 12% from FY2025 to FY2027, with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 2.9 times, in line with regional peers [1] Group 3: Upcoming Financial Results - HKEX is scheduled to announce its Q4 FY2025 results on the 26th [1] - The expected net profit for Q4 is HKD 3.9 billion, which is 1% higher than previous forecasts and represents a 2% year-on-year increase [1] - Profit excluding investment income is anticipated to grow 14% year-on-year to HKD 2.9 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (388 HK) with a target price of HKD 542 [7]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a decline in average daily trading (ADT) leading to a 24% quarter-on-quarter drop in net profit for 4Q25, with total revenue expected to be HKD 6.456 billion, reflecting a 17% decrease from the previous quarter [1][5]. - Despite the expected short-term challenges, the report suggests that factors such as the appreciation of the Renminbi, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a strong IPO market will support liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, benefiting the exchange's performance and valuation [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trading - The report estimates trading revenue for 4Q25 at HKD 42.1 billion, a 16% decrease quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a 20% decline in ADT to HKD 2.298 billion [2]. - Southbound trading activity has also decreased, with a 31% drop in southbound ADT to HKD 529 billion, accounting for 23% of total ADT [2]. IPO Market - The IPO market remains robust, with 50 IPOs expected in 4Q25, raising HKD 980 billion, compared to 25 IPOs and HKD 790 billion in the previous quarter [3]. - The report highlights a strong pipeline of high-quality IPOs, with 395 companies currently awaiting approval [3]. Investment Income - Net investment income is projected to decline by 32% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 6.97 billion due to changes in margin rebate calculations and a high overnight HIBOR environment [4]. - The report notes that the reduction in margin requirements may also lead to a contraction in the investment income base [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to HKD 171 billion, HKD 185 billion, and HKD 188 billion respectively, with a target price based on DCF methodology set at HKD 542 [5][14].

Summary of HK Exchanges & Clearing 4Q25 Preview Company Overview - **Company**: HK Exchanges & Clearing (0388.HK) - **Industry**: Financials, specifically focused on stock exchange operations in Hong Kong Key Points Revenue and Profit Outlook - Revenue and profit are expected to moderate in 4Q25 after a record high in 3Q25, with a projected revenue increase of 4% year-over-year (yoy) and a profit decline of 2% yoy due to sticky costs and a higher tax rate [1][9][12] - Trading and clearing fees are anticipated to increase approximately 12% yoy in 4Q25, while listing fees are expected to rise by 15% yoy, supported by new listings of Derivative Warrants (DW) and Callable Bull/Bear Contracts (CBBC) [3][9] Average Daily Turnover (ADT) Trends - The headline ADT for 4Q25 was HK$230 billion, reflecting a 23% increase yoy but a 20% decrease quarter-over-quarter (qoq) [3][15] - Cash Average Daily Volume (ADV) fell 20% qoq to HK$186 billion in December 2025, attributed to seasonal slowdown, but increased 23% yoy [3][9] - Southbound ADV dropped 29% qoq but rose 25% yoy, indicating its importance as a future growth driver [3][9] Derivatives Market Performance - Futures ADV declined 16% yoy and 1% qoq, while options ADV rose 8% yoy but fell 3% qoq [3][9] - Commodities ADV remained strong, increasing 23% yoy and 20% qoq [3] Net Investment Income - Net investment income is projected to decline to HK$800 million in 4Q25, down 33% yoy and 21% qoq, due to a smaller margin fund size and lower six-month HIBOR rates [4][9] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Year-to-date (YTD) momentum remains strong, with YTD ADV rebounding to HK$274 billion as of February 11, 2026 [5] - The outlook for 2H26 appears supportive, with expectations of clearer signs of moderating Producer Price Index (PPI) pressure, which could enhance market sentiment and trading volume [5] Financial Metrics - Current market capitalization is HK$528.648 billion, with a price target of HK$508.00, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HK$418.00 [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 are projected at HK$13.54, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.9 [7] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include geopolitical uncertainties, regulatory changes affecting ADV, and the performance of the IPO pipeline [30] - Upside risks involve a sharp increase in market fundraising activity and improved liquidity conditions [30] Conclusion - HK Exchanges & Clearing is navigating a mixed performance landscape with a supportive outlook for 2026, driven by strong trading activity and new listings, despite challenges in net investment income and market volatility.

大摩预期，港交所2025年第四季均成交额为2,300亿港元，同比上升23%，惟按季下跌20%。期货日均成 交量同比下跌16%，期权日均成交量则同比上升8%。第四季收入将同比增长4%，受核心业务约12%的 同比增长带动，部分被疲弱的净投资收益所抵销。大摩预期港交所净投资收益将同比(基数较高)及按季 均录得下跌，主要由于保证金资金规模缩减所致。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预期港交所(00388)去年第四季收入及盈利将从2025年第三 季的历史高位回落。今年1月市场活动相对活跃，该行认为这对今年走势构成支持。该行预期踏入今年 下半年将形成利好格局，受惠于市场活动活跃及PPI压力趋缓的迹象日趋明确。该行估计港交所2025年 第四季盈利将同比下跌2%，反映成本黏性(同比升7%)及最低税率要求导致税率上升的影响。评级"增 持"，目标价508港元。 ...

| 合約 | 所有賬戶 | | --- | --- | | MSCI 中國 A50 期貨 | 0.50 美元 | 智通财经APP获悉，2月12日，香港交易所(00388)发布通告称，现有的MSCI中国A50期货的流通量提供者计划及活跃交易者计划将于2026 年3月31日完结。香港交易所将于2026年4月自1月1日起至2028年3月31日期间推出下一期的MSCI中国A50期货流通量提供者计划及活跃交 易者计划。MSCI中国A50期货的50%交易费用折扣优惠将维持不变，直至另行通知。 ...

来源：智通财经网 2月10日，港交所(00388)发布2025年香港股权资本市场回顾。2025年，香港资本市场表现亮眼，许多上 市股份表现优秀、成交一再创新高，港股通交投活跃。根据Dealogic的数据，2025年香港股权资本市场 的集资额达1,030亿美元，同比升164%。其中，首次公开招股集资规模达374亿美元，同比增长231%； 上市后再融资规模达660亿美元，同比升136%。与此同时，二级市场亦相当活跃：现货市场平均每日成 交额同比升89.5%，港股通亦非常活跃。 两大增长动能 香港资本市场助力各不同发展阶段的发行人实现融资，年内新股发行及再融资活动均大幅增长。 2025年底，香港重登全球新股集资中心榜首，119家新上市公司集资共374亿美元，当中包括全球五大新 股的其中两只。全年集资总额更是香港2021年以来的新高，超过前三年总和。 根据Dealogic及彭博的数据，新股上市后表现强劲，集资额1亿美元或以上的新股，上市首日股价平均 上升23.8%，上市后一个月平均涨幅达30.7%，是近20年来的最佳成绩。 数据亦显示，香港上市后再融资额增至660亿美元，创下2021年以来的最高纪录。其中200亿美元 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2月10日，港交所(00388)发布2025年香港股权资本市场回顾。2025年，香港资本市场表现亮眼，许多上市股份表现 优秀、成交一再创新高，港股通交投活跃。根据Dealogic的数据，2025年香港股权资本市场的集资额达1,030亿美元，同比升164%。其 中，首次公开招股集资规模达374亿美元，同比增长231%；上市后再融资规模达660亿美元，同比升136%。与此同时，二级市场亦相当 活跃：现货市场平均每日成交额同比升89.5%，港股通亦非常活跃。 两大增长动能 香港资本市场助力各不同发展阶段的发行人实现融资，年内新股发行及再融资活动均大幅增长。 2025年底，香港重登全球新股集资中心榜首，119家新上市公司集资共374亿美元，当中包括全球五大新股的其中两只。全年集资总额 更是香港2021年以来的新高，超过前三年总和。 根据Dealogic及彭博的数据，新股上市后表现强劲，集资额1亿美元或以上的新股，上市首日股价平均上升23.8%，上市后一个月平均涨 幅达30.7%，是近20年来的最佳成绩。 数据亦显示，香港上市后再融资额增至660亿美元，创下2021年以来的最高纪录。其中200亿美元 ...