Harley-Davidson(HOG)
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Harley-Davidson Shares Fall Despite Big Q3 Beat as Finance Unit Reshapes Model
Financial Modeling Prep· 2025-11-04 22:31
Core Insights - Harley-Davidson Inc. shares fell over 5% despite reporting third-quarter results that significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a transformation in its financial services division [1] Financial Performance - The company reported adjusted earnings of $3.10 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.58, while revenue increased by 17% year-over-year to $1.34 billion, exceeding estimates of $1.01 billion [2] - The strong performance was largely attributed to the completion of the Harley-Davidson Financial Services transaction with KKR and PIMCO, which transitioned the unit to a capital-light, lower-risk structure [2] Market Trends - Global motorcycle retail sales declined by 6% compared to the previous year, with North America down 5% and international markets down 9%, reflecting weaker consumer confidence and higher interest rates [3] - The motorcycle segment (HDMC) experienced a 23% revenue increase as global shipments rose by 33%, although the operating income margin for HDMC decreased to 5.0% from 6.3% a year ago [3] Future Outlook - Management indicated that the HDFS deal is expected to generate approximately $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash by the end of the first quarter of 2026 [3]
Harley-Davidson Earnings Smash Expectations. Why the Stock Is Down.
Barrons· 2025-11-04 21:20
Core Viewpoint - Harley-Davidson reported strong third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, but the stock price declined due to concerns over falling motorcycle sales [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Harley-Davidson announced third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $3.10 from sales of $1.3 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectations of EPS of $1.53 from sales of $1 billion [3][4]. - The company's financial services unit significantly contributed to profits, with operating profit rising from $77 million to $439 million year over year [4][6]. - Despite the strong overall results, motorcycle retail sales decreased by 6% year over year, and operating income from the motorcycle business fell by $1 million to $54 million [4][6]. Strategic Insights - The CEO highlighted the positive impact of the Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) transaction on the overall business model, emphasizing the importance of dealer success for the company's growth [5][6]. - Harley-Davidson's stock has struggled, down approximately 20% over the past five years, with sales expected to decline from $4.9 billion in 2022 to $3.7 billion in 2025 [6][7].
Harley-Davidson outlines $1.2B cash unlock and accelerated inventory reductions through HDFS partnership (NYSE:HOG)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-04 20:37
Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant content regarding company or industry insights [1]
X @The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal· 2025-11-04 18:15
Financial Performance - Harley-Davidson reported higher third-quarter profit [1] Market Trends - Demand for motorcycles remains soft due to economic uncertainty and global tariffs [1]
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-11-04 15:36
Core Insights - Harley-Davidson reported revenue of $1.08 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22.5% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.98% [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.10, a significant increase from $0.91 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of 124.64% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.38 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles were 33,984, slightly below the estimated 34,506 [4] - Worldwide motorcycle shipments totaled 36,524, surpassing the average estimate of 33,182 [4] - Revenue from motorcycles and related products was $1.07 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $999.74 million, and representing a year-over-year change of 22.5% [4] - Revenue from motorcycles was $821.86 million, significantly higher than the estimated $734.64 million, marking a 33.5% increase year-over-year [4] - Revenue from parts and accessories was $167.25 million, slightly below the estimated $172.45 million, reflecting a 4% decrease compared to the previous year [4] - Financial services revenue was $261 million, falling short of the average estimate of $402.76 million, with a year-over-year decline of 3% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Harley-Davidson shares returned 2.2%, slightly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's return of 2.1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance in the near term [3]
Harley-Davidson(HOG) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-04 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue in Q3 2025 increased by 17%, driven by a 23% increase in HDMC revenue, which rose by $198 million compared to the prior year [16][20] - Consolidated operating income for Q3 was $475 million, primarily influenced by HDFS operating income, which was positively impacted by the HDFS transaction [16][22] - Earnings per share for Q3 was $3.10, with global retail down 6% [17][30] - HDFS revenue decreased by 3%, while LiveWire revenue increased by 16% [16][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HDMC's operating income decreased by 2% year-over-year, while LiveWire reported an operating loss of $18 million [16][30] - HDMC gross margin was 26.4%, down from 30.1% in the prior year, due to unfavorable operating leverage and increased tariffs [21][22] - HDFS's operating income increased by 472% year-over-year, driven by a lower provision for credit losses and higher other income [26][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global retail was down 6%, with North America down 5% and international markets down 9% [17][30] - In North America, the Softail family saw a 9% increase, while Adventure Touring bikes were up 4% [18][19] - EMEA retail was down 17%, but non-core segments like Adventure Touring and Nightster motorcycles showed strong growth [19][20] - In Latin America, retail was up 16%, marking the first quarter of growth since Q3 2024 [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving dealer health and profitability, with immediate actions to enhance motorcycle inventory management and introduce market-responsive promotions [5][6] - The HDFS transaction aims to transform the business into a capital-light model, unlocking $1.2 to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash [14][15] - Future strategies include enhancing product accessibility, improving speed to market, and focusing on cost and capital efficiency [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment in Q3 results but highlighted the strategic value of the HDFS transaction [6][16] - The current macro environment is challenging, with high interest rates and inflation impacting consumer confidence [17][30] - Management is optimistic about future product launches and the potential to attract younger riders through new offerings [36][38] Other Important Information - The company plans to use proceeds from the HDFS transaction for debt reduction, share buybacks, and organic growth initiatives [32][31] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 were $1.8 billion, down $469 million from the previous year [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on demographic headwinds facing Harley-Davidson - Management acknowledged the need to attract younger riders and emphasized the importance of a fun and welcoming dealership experience [36][37] Question: Elaboration on market-responsive promotions - Management indicated that high dealer inventory levels necessitate promotional activities to drive sales, particularly for Touring models [39][40] Question: Impact of the HDFS transaction on operating income - Management confirmed that the transaction is expected to provide a $275-$300 million operating income benefit in the second half of the year [44][46] Question: Expectations for fourth quarter retail performance - Management noted improvements in dealer traffic but refrained from providing specific guidance due to market uncertainties [57][58] Question: Shipment expectations for 2026 - Management indicated that inventory levels are being managed carefully, with a focus on reducing Touring inventory while preparing for new model launches [52][54]
Harley-Davidson(HOG) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-04 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue in Q3 increased by 17%, driven by a 23% increase in HDMC revenue, amounting to an additional $198 million compared to the prior year [23] - Consolidated operating income for Q3 was $475 million, primarily influenced by the HDFS transaction, with an operating income margin of 35.4%, significantly up from 9.2% in the same quarter last year [24] - Earnings per share for Q3 was reported at $3.1, while global retail sales decreased by 6% [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HDMC revenue rose by 23% in Q3, with motorcycle shipments increasing by 33% to 36,500 units [31] - HDFS revenue decreased by 3%, while LiveWire revenue increased by 16% [24] - LiveWire reported a consolidated operating loss of $18 million, but improved its cash usage by 39% compared to the previous year [40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American retail sales were down 5%, while international markets saw a decline of 9%, attributed to soft demand and high interest rates [25] - In Latin America, retail sales increased by 16%, marking the first quarter of growth since 2024 [29] - The U.S. market share for HD in the large cruiser category expanded from 61% in 2024 to 68% in 2025 [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving dealer health and profitability, emphasizing the importance of a strong dealer network [6][12] - Plans include enhancing motorcycle inventory management, introducing market-responsive promotions, and reviewing e-commerce strategies [7][8] - The HDFS transaction aims to transform the business into a capital-light model, unlocking $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash through 2026 [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment with the Motor Company results but highlighted the positive impact of the HDFS transaction [10] - The current macro environment is challenging, with a focus on affordability and cost efficiency to attract new riders [14][15] - Future strategies will include simplifying marketing programs and enhancing the overall riding experience [46][47] Other Important Information - The company plans to use proceeds from the HDFS transaction for debt reduction, share buybacks, and organic growth initiatives [43][44] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 were $1.8 billion, down $469 million from the previous year [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Demographic headwinds facing Harley Davidson - Management acknowledged the need to attract younger riders and plans to make the brand more fun and accessible through product offerings and marketing [50][51][53] Question: Market responsive customer promotions - Management discussed the importance of addressing high dealer inventory levels and implementing local promotional activities to drive sales [55][56] Question: Impact of the HDFS transaction on operating income - Management confirmed that the transaction is expected to provide a significant operating income benefit, with $275 million to $300 million anticipated in the second half of the year [62][65] Question: Expectations for 2026 shipments and inventory - Management indicated that while they are not providing specific guidance for 2026, they expect to continue reducing dealer inventory levels [68][72] Question: Fourth quarter retail expectations - Management refrained from providing specific guidance but noted improvements in dealer traffic and sales dynamics [82][84] Question: Theoretical question on shipments and margin expansion - Management emphasized that margin expansion would depend on reversing current negative trends and highlighted the importance of pricing strategies and marketing effectiveness [87][89]
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-11-04 14:21
分组1 - Harley-Davidson reported quarterly earnings of $3.1 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38 per share, and showing a significant increase from $0.91 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +124.64% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.08 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.98%, compared to revenues of $881.21 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Harley-Davidson has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 10% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 16.5% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to those expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.17 on revenues of $616.82 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.75 on revenues of $3.75 billion [7] 分组3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Automotive - Domestic sector is currently in the bottom 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stocks in this category [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors or through tools like the Zacks Rank [5] - The estimate revisions trend for Harley-Davidson was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6]
Harley-Davidson(HOG) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-11-04 14:00
Q2 2025 Performance - Harley-Davidson reported diluted EPS of $0.88[6] - HDMC revenue decreased by 23% year-over-year[6] - Global motorcycle shipments decreased by 28% year-over-year, primarily due to planned dealer inventory reduction[6] - Global motorcycle retail sales decreased by 15% year-over-year[6] - Global dealer inventories decreased by 28% compared to Q2 '24[6] - The cost of new or increased tariffs implemented in '25 was $13 million in Q2 '25[6] - HDFS operating income margin was 27.1%[6] HDFS Transaction - Strategic partners valued the HDFS business at approximately 1.75x post-transaction book value[7] - HDFS will sell approximately two-thirds of HDFS future retail loan originations at a premium on an annual basis for five years[7] - The transaction unlocks $1.25 billion in discretionary cash, representing approximately 40% of current Harley-Davidson market capitalization[7] - HDFS has agreed to sell over $5 billion of existing gross consumer retail loan receivables and residual interests in securitized consumer loan receivables at a premium[7]
Harley Davidson shares surge after Q3 earnings beat despite weak motorcycle sales
Invezz· 2025-11-04 13:53
Core Insights - Harley-Davidson Inc. reported third-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, indicating a strong performance despite underlying challenges in its core motorcycle business [1] Financial Performance - The company's third-quarter results showed a positive trend, surpassing analyst forecasts, which reflects a resilient financial position [1] - Specific figures regarding revenue and profit margins were not detailed in the provided text, but the overall performance was noted as better than anticipated [1] Business Challenges - Despite the strong quarterly results, the motorcycle segment faces significant challenges that could impact future growth [1] - The underlying issues in the core motorcycle business suggest potential risks that need to be monitored closely [1]