股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年8月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 香港中華煤氣有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 (A). 股份期權（根據發行人的股份期權計劃） 不適用 第 3 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00003 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 18,659,870,098 ...

香港中华煤气 (3 HK) 2025 年秋季策略会速递— 延伸业务挖潜，气源结构优化 证券研究报告 | 华泰研究 | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 28 日│中国香港 | 燃气及分销 | 目标价(港币): | 7.63 | 8 月 27 日香港中华煤气出席了我们组织的 2025 年秋季策略会，会上公司重 点围绕延伸业务、气源结构、香港市场优势及内地业务展开交流。延伸业务 引入外部投资强化 B2C 运营与数字化建设，香港主导利润贡献，内地潜力 待挖掘；内地城市燃气气源以三桶油为主，计划提升非常规/现货气占比以 优化成本；香港煤气呈垄断格局且气价成本可转嫁，内地工商业用气增长承 压但延伸业务空间大。维持"买入"评级。 延伸业务引入战略投资，明确"先扩客再跨域"路径 管理层表示，为强化延伸业务（燃气灶具、保险等 B2C 业务）运营能力， 引入元禾辰坤（苏州国资控股）与方圆资本，前者提供地方资源协同，后者 凭借消费品领域经验助力数字化（如物联网 LP 平台）与售后服务完善。目 前该业务利润高度依赖香港（ ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong and Mainland gas sales remain stable, with core profits steadily increasing after excluding exchange rate impacts, supporting a "buy" rating for the company [5] Group 1: Financial Performance - Hong Kong Chinese Gas reported a revenue of HKD 27.514 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.964 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, but a 5% increase when excluding exchange rate impacts [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, maintaining an annual dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.97% based on the closing price on August 20 [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Operations - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong gas sales volume was 14,935 TJ, remaining stable year-on-year, with residential gas usage increasing to offset the negative impact of residents consuming gas in mainland China [1] - The company increased maintenance fees and basic pricing, enhancing profitability in the Hong Kong gas business, with after-tax operating profit rising 6% to HKD 2.15 billion [1] - The Hong Kong government is accelerating the development of the Northern Metropolis, which is expected to increase gas sales potential to 5,500 TJ, providing long-term growth momentum for the gas business [1] Group 3: Mainland Operations - In the first half of 2025, the total gas sales volume in Mainland China was 18.58 billion cubic meters, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with industrial and residential increases offsetting declines in commercial and distribution sectors [2] - The gross margin for city gas sales was HKD 0.54 per cubic meter, an increase of HKD 0.04 per cubic meter, with residential gas prices rising despite a decrease in average costs [2] - The company is effectively controlling the decline in connection business by expanding into rural and old urban areas, with a slight decrease of 5% in completed residential connections [2] Group 4: Extended Business and Renewable Energy - The after-tax profit from extended businesses reached HKD 250 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39%, focusing on smart kitchens, insurance, and home safety [3] - The company’s photovoltaic power generation increased by 44% to 1.18 billion kWh, with net profits from photovoltaic business and asset management totaling HKD 172 million [4] - The green fuel business faced challenges with a tax-adjusted operating profit of -HKD 190 million, primarily due to low prices for SAF, but future production capacity for green methanol is expected to reach 300,000 tons per year by 2028 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong and mainland gas companies are experiencing stable gas sales, but growth in mainland city gas sales is slowing down, with potential for price margin recovery diminishing. The company maintains a clear dividend policy and has growth potential in renewable and green energy sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Hong Kong Gas Performance - Hong Kong China Gas reported 1H25 revenue of HKD 27.5 billion, flat year-on-year; core profit was HKD 3.08 billion, down 3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.96 billion, also down 3% year-on-year [1]. - Gas sales in Hong Kong remained stable at 14,935 TJ in 1H25, with residential gas volume up 2.5% due to a 0.8°C decrease in average temperature; commercial gas volume decreased by 2.3% due to changes in tourism patterns [1]. - The company expects gas sales in Hong Kong to remain flat in 2025, benefiting from a well-established pricing mechanism, with an anticipated EBITDA margin of around 52% [1]. Group 2: Mainland City Gas Performance - The company’s city gas sales volume reached 18.58 billion cubic meters in 1H25, essentially flat year-on-year; industrial gas volume remained stable, while commercial gas volume decreased due to warm winter effects [2]. - The city gas price margin was CNY 0.54 per cubic meter in 1H25, up 0.04 CNY year-on-year; the cost of gas purchase decreased by CNY 0.06 per cubic meter due to optimized self-sourced gas [2]. - The company anticipates that the price margin recovery will converge to CNY 0.02 per cubic meter in 2025, despite an expected expansion in pricing mechanisms [2]. Group 3: Renewable and Green Energy Potential - The company’s renewable energy business net profit reached HKD 116 million in 1H25, up 6% year-on-year; the shift towards a light-asset strategy is expected to drive growth in carbon services and asset management sales from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - The green energy business, including green methanol and SAF, is solidifying its production capacity, with a collaboration on green methanol with Fuan Energy and a SAF plant in Malaysia expected to begin trial production in September [2]. Group 4: Financial Adjustments and Target Price - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 6.03 billion, HKD 6.46 billion, and HKD 6.79 billion, reflecting a three-year CAGR of 6% [2]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 7.63, up from HKD 7.04, based on a 2.5x PB for 2025, considering the potential of renewable energy and green fuel business [2].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has revised its earnings forecast for Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026, lowering the per-share earnings estimate by 1% to 9%, while introducing a forecast for fiscal year 2027 and raising the 12-month target price for gas from HKD 6.1 to HKD 7.1, maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] Financial Performance - Hong Kong and China Gas reported a core profit of HKD 3.084 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of 3%, primarily due to weak pricing from renewable fuel producer EcoCeres' sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [1] - The after-tax net operating profit increased by 3% year-on-year, but core profit decreased by 3%, mainly impacted by foreign exchange factors that resulted in an increase of HKD 213 million in financial expenses [1] - The interim dividend per share is HKD 0.12, unchanged from the same period last year [1] - The performance for the first half of 2025 and the revised guidance align with Daiwa's expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has revised its earnings forecast for Hong Kong and China Gas (00003) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026, lowering the per-share earnings estimate by 1% to 9%, while also introducing a forecast for fiscal year 2027 and raising the 12-month target price from HKD 6.1 to HKD 7.1, maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] Financial Performance - Hong Kong and China Gas reported a core profit of HKD 3.084 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of 3%, primarily due to weak pricing from renewable fuel producer EcoCeres' sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [1] - The after-tax net operating profit increased by 3% year-on-year, but core profit decreased by 3%, largely impacted by foreign exchange factors that resulted in an increase of HKD 213 million in financial expenses [1] - The interim dividend per share is HKD 0.12, unchanged from the same period last year [1] Business Outlook - The performance for the first half of 2025 and the revised guidance align with Daiwa's expectations [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.63, up from the previous HKD 7.04 [6][26]. Core Insights - The company's 1H25 performance showed stable revenue at HKD 27.5 billion, with core profit slightly down by 3% year-on-year to HKD 3.08 billion, primarily due to higher financial costs from exchange rate factors [1][5]. - Gas sales in Hong Kong remained flat year-on-year, with residential gas volume increasing by 2.5% due to lower average temperatures, while commercial gas volume decreased by 2.3% [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stable local demand in Hong Kong, with an EBITDA margin projected to remain around 52% for 2025 [2]. - The growth rate of city gas sales in mainland China has slowed, with a slight increase in residential gas volume and a decrease in commercial gas volume due to warm winter conditions [3]. - The renewable energy and green fuel segments show growth potential, with net profit from renewable energy reaching HKD 116 million, up 6% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was HKD 27.5 billion, core profit was HKD 3.08 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.96 billion, both down 3% year-on-year [1]. - The company maintains a stable interim dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 0.12, with an expected full-year DPS of HKD 0.35, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.0% [1]. Gas Sales - Hong Kong gas sales volume for 1H25 was 14,935 TJ, remaining flat year-on-year, with residential gas volume increasing by 2.5% and commercial gas volume decreasing by 2.3% [2]. - The company expects gas sales in Hong Kong to remain stable in 2025, benefiting from a well-established pricing mechanism [2]. Mainland City Gas - The company reported city gas sales volume of 18.58 billion cubic meters in 1H25, remaining flat year-on-year, with industrial gas volume stable and commercial gas volume declining [3]. - The average city gas price difference was RMB 0.54 per cubic meter, up 0.04 RMB year-on-year, with expectations for price difference recovery to converge [3]. Renewable Energy and Green Fuel - The renewable energy business net profit reached HKD 116 million in 1H25, with expectations for continued growth in carbon services and asset management [4]. - The green energy business is expanding, with partnerships for green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production [4]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with a projected CAGR of 6% [5][26]. - The target price is raised to HKD 7.63 based on a revised price-to-book ratio of 2.5x for 2025, reflecting the potential of renewable energy and green fuel businesses [5][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 27.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.964 billion, a decrease of 2.5%. Excluding foreign exchange losses, the net profit increased by 5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [4][6] - The company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, maintaining a stable annual dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.97% based on the closing price on August 20 [4][6] - The gas sales volume in Hong Kong remained stable, with a slight increase in residential gas usage offsetting the negative impact of residents consuming gas in mainland China. The company has strong pricing power in Hong Kong, with recent price adjustments enhancing profitability [6] - The mainland business showed a slight decline in gas sales volume, but the gross margin improved. The company effectively controlled the decline in connection business, minimizing its impact on overall performance [6] - The company's extended business segment saw a significant profit increase, and strategic investments are expected to support growth [6] - Renewable energy initiatives are gaining traction, with solar power generation increasing by 44% year-on-year. The company is also expanding its green fuel business, with expectations for future growth [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: HKD 56,971 million (2023), HKD 55,473 million (2024), HKD 54,725 million (2025E), HKD 56,732 million (2026E), and HKD 58,295 million (2027E) [5][7] - Net profit projections for the same period are: HKD 6,070 million (2023), HKD 5,712 million (2024), HKD 6,131 million (2025E), HKD 6,543 million (2026E), and HKD 6,912 million (2027E) [5][7] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-2027 is projected to be 21.4, 20.1, and 19.0 respectively, indicating a stable valuation outlook [6]

Core Insights - The company reported stable gas sales and a 3% increase in after-tax operating profit for the first half of 2025, reaching 4 billion RMB [15][16][30] - The renewable energy segment showed a 6% profit growth, with significant increases in solar power generation and energy storage contracts [12][57][60] - The company is expanding its hydrogen energy initiatives, with projects aimed at producing green hydrogen and establishing charging stations [26][29][82] Utility Business - Gas sales volume remained stable, with a slight increase in price differential of 0.04 RMB per cubic meter [9][30] - The water business showed robust performance, with an 8% profit increase, driven by expansion into community and rural projects [10][44] - The company secured long-term gas supply contracts totaling 15 billion cubic meters per year, enhancing its supply chain stability [11][41] Growth Business - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar power, saw a 44% increase in generation, with a total of 1.18 billion kWh produced [12][57] - The company is actively pursuing strategic partnerships and financing, raising 450 million USD for its extended business initiatives [50][53] - The advanced biofuels segment is expanding, with a new joint venture aimed at producing green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [14][97] Financial Overview - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.12 HKD per share, reflecting a stable financial position [15] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 2.96 billion HKD, marking a 3% increase [16][19] - Capital expenditures for the first half of 2025 were reported at 2.5 billion HKD, down from 3.3 billion HKD in the previous year [22] Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) - The company achieved an MSCI rating of AA, indicating strong performance in sustainability practices [100] - It has been recognized as a leader in the gas utility sector for three consecutive years in the Sustainable Development Yearbook [100]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a "slow bull" trend since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising 25.45% year-to-date, entering a technical bull market, driven by the "AI+" technology narrative, while the utility sector attracts long-term capital due to its high dividends and stable growth [1] Group 1: Gas Business Performance - The gas business of Hong Kong and mainland China has shown steady performance in the first half of 2025, with Hong Kong's gas sales remaining stable despite external challenges [2][3] - Hong Kong and mainland gas operations have maintained stability, with Hong Kong's gas sales benefiting from a solid customer base and the development of the Northern Metropolis, which is expected to increase gas demand significantly [3][4] - In mainland China, despite a 0.9% year-on-year decline in natural gas consumption, the company managed to keep sales volume stable and improve gross margin by 0.04 RMB per cubic meter [4][5] Group 2: Supply Chain and Resource Management - The company has made significant progress in integrating supply chain resources, securing long-term gas supply contracts totaling 15 billion cubic meters per year and establishing a robust storage and peak-shaving infrastructure [6][7] - The integration of supply chain resources enhances the company's bargaining power and ability to meet customer demands effectively [7] Group 3: Diversified Business Development - The company has expanded its business model beyond traditional gas supply, launching the "Mingqi Home" brand to offer smart kitchen solutions, which saw a 25% year-on-year increase in sales due to government subsidies [9] - The company is actively developing renewable energy, achieving 2.6 GW of cumulative photovoltaic grid connection and a 44% year-on-year increase in photovoltaic power generation in the first half of 2025 [10] - The company is also focusing on energy storage solutions and has initiated projects to enhance its energy management capabilities, including a partnership for a sulfur-based liquid flow battery storage system [11] Group 4: Green Fuel Initiatives - The company is investing in green methanol production, with plans to reach a capacity of 30,000 tons by 2028, and has successfully completed large-scale green methanol refueling operations [13][15] - The company is also involved in hydrogen energy projects, including a green hydrogen initiative expected to supply households by 2026, and has established partnerships to develop sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [14][15] Conclusion - The company's dual-driven model of relying on a stable traditional business while innovating in new growth areas demonstrates strong resilience and adaptability in the face of market fluctuations, providing a valuable reference for sustainable development in the energy sector [15][16]