全球瞭望|荷兰国际集团：美国冒险主义对美元和石油意味着什么 新华社布鲁塞尔1月5日电（记者康逸）金融机构荷兰国际集团5日发布分析报告指出，在金融市场迎来 2026年第一个交易周之际，市场注意力高度聚焦美国袭击委内瑞拉事件。投资者将评估其带来的短期、 中期和长期影响，以及对更广泛的地区和国际关系的影响。报告摘要如下： 对于3日发生在委内瑞拉的事件，市场的初步反应是出现温和"避险"走势：黄金和瑞士法郎受到追捧， 美元也获得一定支撑。股指期货似乎并未对目前事态产生过度反应，原油市场则因仍在评估该事件对委 内瑞拉石油产量的短期影响和中长期影响而摇摆不定。 鉴于未来几天局势发展仍存在不确定性，投资者或将更偏好美元的流动性。拉美国家货币可能承压，尤 其是哥伦比亚比索，同时墨西哥比索也可能受影响。 受事件影响，石油市场供应将出现更多不确定性。短期影响在很大程度上取决于委内瑞拉将出现何种权 力过渡。如果过渡期漫长且混乱，短期内供应中断风险会上升。若出现平稳过渡，且委政府更愿意与美 国合作，市场可能面临更大下行压力。 荷兰国际集团大宗商品策略主管沃伦·帕特森认为，当前石油市场反应平淡，原因是受制裁影响，委内 瑞拉在12月下旬的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from ING indicates that the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike may be "rather gradual" due to concerns over long-term fiscal health and increasing debt burdens, which could lead to instability in the financial market and affect economic performance [1][1]. Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding Japan's long-term fiscal health and rising debt burdens may lead to instability in the financial market, potentially impacting the country's economic performance [1][1]. - Further fiscal stimulus could have counterproductive effects on the economy, according to the report [1][1]. Policy Stance - The current government is likely to maintain its expansionary policy stance, which poses significant risks to the economy in 2026 [1][1]. - October is identified as the most likely time for the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1][1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the previous assessment that fears regarding Russia were exaggerated and highlights that ING Groep appeared undervalued at that time [1] - The author expresses satisfaction with the accuracy of the previous analysis, indicating that the share performance has validated the initial viewpoint [1] - The Investment Doctor emphasizes a long-term investment strategy focusing on a mix of dividend and growth stocks, particularly in the European small-cap sector [1] Group 2 - The Investment Doctor leads an investment group called European Small Cap Ideas, which provides exclusive research on European investment opportunities [1] - The group focuses on high-quality small-cap ideas, aiming for capital gains and dividend income to ensure continuous cash flow [1] - Features of the investment group include two model portfolios, weekly updates, educational content, and an active chat room for discussions on portfolio developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the previous assessment that fears regarding Russia were exaggerated and highlights that ING Groep was undervalued, with the author expressing satisfaction over the accuracy of this prediction as the share price has performed positively [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - ING Groep is identified as a company that appeared to be very cheap approximately 3.5 years ago, suggesting a potential investment opportunity at that time [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach emphasized by the author includes a mix of dividend and growth stocks, indicating a strategy aimed at achieving both capital gains and continuous cash flow through dividends [1]. - The investment group European Small Cap Ideas focuses on high-quality small-cap investment opportunities in Europe, providing exclusive research and actionable insights [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of enabling Javascript and cookies in browsers to ensure proper functionality and access to content [1] Group 1 - The article highlights that users may face access issues if they have an ad-blocker enabled [1] - It suggests disabling ad-blockers and refreshing the page to proceed [1]

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characte ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Chris Turner from ING suggests that if the upcoming US October JOLTs job openings data is better than expected, the US dollar is likely to strengthen [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, but there is a cautious attitude towards further rate cuts [1] - Given the fragile pricing of further easing by the Federal Reserve, the downside potential for the dollar is considered limited before the Fed meeting [1] Group 2: Potential Impact of Data Release - If the data released on Tuesday shows any positive surprises, the US Dollar Index (DXY) could rise to 99.30 [1]

Core Insights - Global interest rates may soon test higher levels, as indicated by Dutch international rate strategists [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates but may adopt a cautious stance regarding further cuts, which could exert some pressure on yields [1] - The bond market's volatility is likely to remain limited due to a lack of strong catalysts to drive yields significantly higher [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is projected to maintain its median forecast, suggesting only one more rate cut by 2026 [1] Market Dynamics - The absence of strong catalysts is expected to keep bond market volatility in check, limiting significant increases in yields [1]

Core Insights - ING Group acknowledges the announcement from the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the 2025 EU-wide Transparency Exercise [1] - The EBA Board of Supervisors approved the package for the EU-wide Transparency Exercise, which has been conducted annually since 2016 and is published alongside the Risk Assessment Report (RAR) [2] - Results for ING Group are available on the EBA website, ensuring transparency and accessibility for market participants [2] Summary of Transparency Exercise - The annual transparency exercise is based solely on COREP/FINREP data to provide sufficient information to market participants [2] - Templates for the exercise were filled in by the EBA and verified by banks and supervisors, allowing banks to correct errors and resubmit data [3] Company Profile - ING is a global financial institution with a strong European base, offering banking services through ING Bank, which operates in over 100 countries with more than 60,000 employees [6] - ING Group shares are listed on the Amsterdam, Brussels, and New York Stock Exchanges [6] Sustainability Efforts - ING aims to integrate sustainability into its operations, with an upgraded ESG rating from MSCI from 'AA' to 'AAA' in October 2025 [7] - As of June 2025, ING's management of ESG material risk is rated as 'Strong' by Sustainalytics, with a low ESG risk rating of 18.0 [7]

Group 1 - A consortium of 10 European banks, including ING, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas, is launching a euro-pegged stablecoin to counter U.S. dominance in digital payments [1][3] - The project was first announced in September, and BNP Paribas has recently joined the group [3] - The stablecoin aims to maintain a constant value and is backed by traditional currencies, reflecting the growing trend of stablecoins in the market [4] Group 2 - Qivalis, the company behind the stablecoin, will be led by CEO Jan-Oliver Sell, with Floris Lugt as CFO and Howard Davies as chair [2] - Qivalis is applying for an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license from the Dutch central bank, expecting to launch the stablecoin in the second half of 2026 [5] - The licensing process for Qivalis is anticipated to take six to nine months [5]