北京时间2月28日凌晨，美股周五尾盘继续下跌，三大股指在本周及2月份均将录得跌幅。英伟达公布财 报后，其股价连续第二个交易日下跌。知名软件股普跌。最新生产者价格指数数据远超预期，显示美国 通胀仍具粘性，加重了引发市场动荡的担忧情绪。瑞银下调美国股票市场评级。 随着科技股下跌和通胀数据高企给市场带来压力，标普500指数重新跌破其备受关注的50日移动均线这 一技术指标。该基准指数也跌破斐波那契回撤位6850.62点。收盘若低于这些水平，可能会进一步给市 场带来压力。 瑞银下调美国股票市场评级 瑞银全球股票策略主管Andrew Garthwaite将一个已满仓的全球股票投资组合中的美国股票评级下调 至"基准"，理由是美元走弱、估值过高以及华盛顿政策动荡带来的风险不断上升。 加思韦特写道，美元风险是核心关切。瑞银预计，到第一季度末，欧元将攀升至1欧元兑1.22美元，并 认为美元面临"不对称的结构性下行风险"。该银行表示，从历史来看，当美元贸易加权指数下跌10% 时，按非对冲基础计算，美国股市的表现大约会落后4%。 今年，由于美元走弱和估值更低吸引资本流向海外，外国市场的表现远超美国。MSCI世界不含美国指 数在202 ...

占GDP 2%的资金涌入美股 "美国股市在全市场受追捧的程度令人难以置信。净股票流入从未如此强劲。"Tim Baker在报告中直言，"在整个 2025年，净流入资金达到了令人瞠目结舌的占美国GDP 2%的水平。" 这是一个极其庞大的数字。德银指出，仅凭这笔创纪录的股票净流入资金，就足以单枪匹马地为美国三分之二的经 常账户赤字提供融资。 在这场资本盛宴中，不仅他国投资者在疯狂买入美股，美国本土投资者也展现出了极强的"本土偏好"。报告显示， 美国投资者购买外国股票的意愿处于疲软状态。在过去的一年半里，美国在G10国家中显得格格不入。除了英国勉 强接近外，绝大多数G10国家都经历了股票资金的净流出。 美股正遭遇"买得越多，跑得越输"的尴尬境地，德意志银行警告称，一旦美股创纪录的外资流入发生逆转，美元将 面临严峻的下行风险。 据追风交易台，2月25日，德意志银行宏观策略师Tim Baker发布报告显示，尽管全球资金正在以史无前例的速度涌 入美国股市，但美股的相对表现却令人大跌眼镜。"美国市场却落后了——表现更好的是更便宜、更具周期性的市 场。" 在德银看来，关键不只是股市排名变化，而是它可能触发一个更大的链条：海外投 ...

来源：滚动播报 Nedgroup Investments的Rob Burdett写道，美国法官推翻总统特朗普全球关税的裁决应会提振全球股市， 并对其他资产类别具有重要影响。最高法院周五裁定，根据一项紧急法案征收的关税不合法，为价值数 以十亿美元计的国际贸易免除关税铺平了道路。Burdett表示，此举将提振美国和世界各地的股市。他表 示，与此同时，美国国债收益率可能会上升，而美元则可能因进口商已支付的关税有获得退款的可能而 走软。在其他方面，Burdett预计投入成本将会降低，从而缓解利润率压力，尤其是零售商和制造商的利 润率压力。 ...

荷兰国际集团的Chris Turner表示，美元仍面临压力，但短期内可能会找到一些支撑。这位全球市场主 管在一份研究报告中说，现在的重点将从劳动力市场转向通胀数据。他补充说，这些数据需要下降，才 能证实今年货币市场仍然反映在价格中的两次降息预期。低利率可能会降低美元计价资产对一些外国投 资者的吸引力。今天的焦点将是12月份的贸易余额。他说："今天公布的12月份贸易逆差如果小于预 期，将增强市场对明日公布的不错的第四季度GDP数据的预期，并可能为美元提供一些短期支撑。 责任编辑：何云 荷兰国际集团的Chris Turner表示，美元仍面临压力，但短期内可能会找到一些支撑。这位全球市场主 管在一份研究报告中说，现在的重点将从劳动力市场转向通胀数据。他补充说，这些数据需要下降，才 能证实今年货币市场仍然反映在价格中的两次降息预期。低利率可能会降低美元计价资产对一些外国投 资者的吸引力。今天的焦点将是12月份的贸易余额。他说："今天公布的12月份贸易逆差如果小于预 期，将增强市场对明日公布的不错的第四季度GDP数据的预期，并可能为美元提供一些短期支撑。 责任编辑：何云 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced a slight increase during light holiday trading but remains within a recent range, with the stock and bond markets closed for Presidents Day [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US economic calendar is light on Monday, leading investors to focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday and the preliminary fourth-quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Friday [1] - Following strong US employment data and lower-than-expected inflation data from the previous week, the market is looking for clues regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The DXY dollar index rose by 0.1% to 96.967 [1]

Core Insights - The strong January employment report led to the dollar recovering from previous losses and reaching intraday highs, while most G-10 currencies declined [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.3% after three consecutive days of decline, as traders reduced bets on the Federal Reserve's easing policy for the year [1] - Most G-10 currencies fell, with the Swiss franc and Swedish krona experiencing the largest declines, while the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone managed to maintain their gains [1] - Monthly job additions and average hourly earnings in the U.S. exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was lower than widely anticipated [1]

Core Insights - The recent cooling signals in the U.S. labor market may lead to significant volatility in the foreign exchange and bond markets if the January non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations [1] - A weaker-than-expected data release could reignite concerns about labor market momentum and strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing later this year, which would likely pressure the U.S. dollar [1] - Conversely, strong data performance could challenge these expectations, providing support for the dollar and pushing up yields [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 荷兰国际银行表示，美国密歇根大学2月消费者信心指数初值将于日内公布，若该数据意外下滑，可能 对美元构成轻微利空。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar remains steady after reaching a two-week high, despite weak U.S. jobs data, as investors focus on upcoming nonfarm payrolls data and the potential impact of Federal Reserve leadership changes [1] Economic Data - U.S. job openings fell to the lowest level in over five years in December, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [1] - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls data, delayed due to a recent partial government shutdown, is anticipated to provide further insights into employment trends [1] Federal Reserve Influence - President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair has positively influenced the dollar, with market expectations leaning towards a restrictive policy stance and the maintenance of central bank independence [1] - Markets are not fully anticipating another interest-rate cut until June, according to LSEG data, suggesting a cautious outlook on monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - Grain futures mostly rose due to market concerns that a potential war between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt supply chains [1] - Wheat continued its upward trend driven by geopolitical tensions, while corn was boosted by President Trump's support for increasing ethanol content in gasoline [1] - Soybeans fell due to expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, wholesale inflation exceeded expectations, and the market believes that Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, is unlikely to accelerate interest rate cuts [1] - This supported the U.S. dollar and tempered the rise in metal prices [1] - In the Chicago futures market, soybeans dropped by 0.6%, corn rose by 0.5%, and wheat increased by 0.2% [1]