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Core Insights - The global asset pricing logic is changing under the backdrop of high oil prices, high inflation, and high interest rates, with U.S. Treasury yields becoming more sensitive to inflation and supply factors [2] - The long-term interest rate is facing upward pressure, while gold retains its allocation value in an inflationary and uncertain environment [2] - The U.S. dollar is supported by safe-haven demand in the short term but faces adjustment pressure in the medium term due to fiscal constraints and reserve diversification [2] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase as China distances itself from conflict-prone areas and maintains policy space [2] - A-shares are influenced by external disturbances but still present structural opportunities in sectors like power equipment and high-end manufacturing [2] - Hong Kong stocks are more affected by foreign capital flows and exhibit higher volatility, but their attractiveness for medium to long-term capital is increasing due to low valuations [2] Section Summaries 1. U.S.-Iran Conflict Dynamics - The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated into a prolonged confrontation, impacting global energy supply and prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising significantly [6][7] - The conflict has led to increased military spending by the U.S., with costs exceeding $10 billion related to Iran, contributing to the rapid expansion of U.S. federal debt [15] 2. U.S. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Shift Amid High Energy Prices - The Federal Reserve has signaled a significant reduction in rate cut expectations, with most officials supporting only one rate cut in 2026 [8][12] - Inflation forecasts have been revised upward, with the core PCE inflation expected to rise to 4.0% [8][12] 3. U.S. Treasury Debt Outlook - U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with rapid growth driven by persistent fiscal deficits and military spending related to geopolitical tensions [15][19] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [19] 4. Asset Class Changes Under Re-Inflation Narrative - The core logic of global asset pricing is shifting towards a framework of multiple constraints, including high energy costs and inflation persistence [32] - The traditional safe-haven role of U.S. Treasuries is weakening as inflation and supply factors dominate market dynamics [34] - Gold is expected to benefit from its dual role as a hedge against inflation and a currency alternative [34] 5. Structural Changes in Asset Pricing - The current asset pricing system is undergoing a fundamental reconfiguration, with energy costs, fiscal constraints, and credit stability becoming central [41] - Assets with supply security and credit stability characteristics, such as gold and energy, are likely to gain new premium sources [41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the U.S. February CPI met expectations, with core inflation showing moderate performance, but market focus has shifted away from this somewhat "outdated" data [1] - It is anticipated that the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth will rise in March and April due to increases in oil prices and compensatory rises in rental inflation, before fluctuating around 3% thereafter [1] - The Federal Reserve is not expected to overreact to oil price fluctuations, and the U.S. dollar is likely to maintain a strong oscillation, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield lacks sufficient downward space [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar has shown significant appreciation against the euro and yen, which are often considered alternatives to the US currency [1] Currency Performance - The dollar has registered strong gains against the euro and yen, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - US stock indices continued to decline, with Nvidia's stock dropping for the second consecutive trading day after its earnings report, contributing to a broader downturn in tech stocks and raising concerns about persistent inflation as indicated by the latest producer price index data. UBS downgraded the US stock market rating [1][8]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones fell by 677.87 points, a decrease of 1.37%, closing at 48,821.33 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 281.33 points, down 1.23%, at 22,597.05 points; the S&P 500 index decreased by 56.23 points, a decline of 0.81%, ending at 6,852.63 points [3][10]. - The S&P 500 index fell below its 50-day moving average and the Fibonacci retracement level of 6,850.62 points, indicating potential further pressure on the market if it closes below these levels [3][10]. UBS Downgrade - UBS downgraded the rating of US stocks in a fully invested global equity portfolio to "benchmark," citing concerns over a weakening dollar, high valuations, and increasing risks from Washington's policy instability. The firm expects the euro to rise to 1.22 USD by the end of Q1 [11][12]. - Historically, a 10% decline in the dollar trade-weighted index has led to a 4% underperformance of the US stock market on a non-hedged basis [11]. Inflation Data - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January rose faster than expected, with the core PPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.8% month-over-month, surpassing the 0.3% forecast. The overall PPI rose by 0.5%, also exceeding expectations [4][12][13]. - Year-over-year, the core wholesale prices increased by 3.6%, while the overall index rose by 2.9%, both significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the US economy [13]. Tech Sector Performance - Nvidia's stock fell over 5% following its earnings report, surprising many investors who remained bullish due to strong Q4 performance and an upcoming product cycle. The decline was attributed to concerns over Nvidia's deal with OpenAI and the sustainability of high AI capital expenditures [5][15][16]. - Other notable tech stocks also faced losses, with Salesforce down over 3%, Microsoft down about 1%, and cybersecurity firm Zscaler dropping 9% after disappointing earnings. Concerns about AI's impact on the labor market and the economy contributed to a broader sell-off in the financial sector [16][17]. Monthly Performance - February is expected to end with a 2.5% decline for the Nasdaq, marking its worst monthly performance since March of the previous year. The iShares expanded technology and software sector ETF fell 9% this month, bringing its year-to-date decline to 21% [6][17].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a paradox where increased foreign investment is not translating into superior performance, raising concerns about potential declines in the dollar if this trend reverses [1][14]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank reports unprecedented net inflows into the U.S. stock market, reaching a staggering 2% of U.S. GDP for the entire year of 2025 [2]. - This influx of capital is significant enough to finance two-thirds of the U.S. current account deficit [2]. - U.S. investors show a strong preference for domestic stocks, with a notable decline in interest in foreign equities, contrasting with trends in other G10 countries [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - Despite the capital influx, the U.S. stock market has underperformed compared to cheaper and more cyclical markets, marking the worst relative performance in 15 years [5][10]. - The relative underperformance of U.S. stocks has become evident in recent months, with a significant decline in performance compared to non-U.S. assets [5]. - Over a three-year period, while U.S. stocks have remained robust, their performance has recently dropped to a low point [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - Strong global economic data has persisted for over a year, correlating with rising global stock markets and favorable conditions for corporate earnings [7]. - Global corporate earnings are growing at over 15%, a trend typically seen during recovery periods following recessions [7]. Group 4: Valuation and Profitability - The valuation gap between U.S. stocks and non-U.S. markets remains significant, with U.S. stocks previously trading at a 70% premium, now reduced to a 40% premium [10][13]. - Non-U.S. markets are beginning to show a positive shift in earnings, with a notable 14% increase in profitability over the past six months [10]. Group 5: Currency Implications - A potential shift in capital away from U.S. stocks could lead to a significant decline in the dollar, as historical patterns suggest that reduced inflows correlate with dollar depreciation [14][17]. - The long-term trajectory of the dollar is closely tied to the performance of U.S. stocks relative to emerging markets, indicating that a reversal in foreign investment could trigger a downward trend for the dollar [17].

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Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against President Trump's global tariffs is expected to boost global stock markets and significantly impact other asset classes [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The ruling paves the way for tariff exemptions on international trade valued in the billions, which is anticipated to uplift stock markets in the U.S. and globally [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are likely to rise as a result of the ruling [1] - The U.S. dollar may weaken due to the potential refunds on tariffs paid by importers [1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The expected reduction in input costs will alleviate pressure on profit margins, particularly for retailers and manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is under pressure but may find short-term support as focus shifts from the labor market to inflation data [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chris Turner from ING indicates that inflation data needs to decline to confirm the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts this year [1][2] - Low interest rates could reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets for some foreign investors [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The focus is on the trade balance for December, with expectations that a lower-than-expected trade deficit could enhance market expectations for positive fourth-quarter GDP data [1][2] - A smaller trade deficit may provide some short-term support for the US dollar [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced a slight increase during light holiday trading but remains within a recent range, with the stock and bond markets closed for Presidents Day [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US economic calendar is light on Monday, leading investors to focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday and the preliminary fourth-quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Friday [1] - Following strong US employment data and lower-than-expected inflation data from the previous week, the market is looking for clues regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The DXY dollar index rose by 0.1% to 96.967 [1]