因此，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话将受到密切关注，看其基调是否会发生变化，尤其是在经济增 长继续放缓的情况下，美联储对通胀的容忍度方面。 8月20日欧洲交易时段，现货黄金小幅反弹，目前交投于3318.88美元/盎司附近；现货白银续了连续第 五个交易日的连跌势头，周三亚洲时段交易价格约为每金衡盎司 37.20 美元。交易员无视了美国国债收 益率的下跌，金价回落至3320美元水平。随着金银比接近89.00，白银跌向37.30美元。贵金属价格在下 降通道模式内盘整，表明普遍存在看跌倾向。 【要闻速递】 最近几周，一些关键的美国经济数据出人意料地下行，而强于预期的PPI数据提醒市场，特朗普的关税 政策可能仍会带来通胀压力。尽管这一数据暂时冷却了一系列更大幅度或更快的降息预期，但市场仍认 为，在9月FOMC会议上降息25个基点的可能性很大，但此后的路径仍不确定。 对黄金而言，这种不确定性加上夏季假期市场，已转化为僵局，导致市场区间波动，在稳定的投资需求 的支撑下，过去三个月金价在3350美元附近徘徊。白银也缺乏动力，工业需求和结构性赤字，加上强劲 的基础技术面提供支撑，但在缺乏新的推动力的情况下，投机性多头表现出降低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential limited influence of Milan on the US dollar due to his late participation in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings [1] Group 1 - Aroop Chatterjee from Wells Fargo indicates that Milan may not start attending FOMC meetings until December, which could restrict his impact on the US dollar [1] - Milan is expected to only attend two FOMC meetings before the end of his term, given the current Senate recess until September [1] - Even with expedited Senate action, attending the December FOMC meeting appears more feasible than attending in September or October [1]

Currency Market Analysis - ING expects the dollar to face downward pressure this week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]

一旦掌握這7個人生複利公式，你的人生將開始快速成長 https://youtu.be/Uz0awqTLJeA 會員頻道的內容會依照這7個公式，一步步陪你實踐 👉 加入會員頻道，從第1個公式開始實踐：https://bit.ly/goldenrich-members ☕️ 如果你想免費支持我們，這裡有個簡單的方法： 👉 https://bit.ly/GET-IBKR 🙏 點擊連結沒有任何費用，每次點擊都能幫助支持我們的頻道。IB盈透證券：全球領先、備受信賴的投資平台，交易覆蓋150個市場，低成本、資金靈活，是多元化投資的理想選擇！ (Disclosures: https://bit.ly/content-disclosure) 你以為美元還安全？達利歐警告：美國其實早已陷入隱形破產！ 你知道嗎？一個國家要破產，不會有倒數、也沒有公告。它發生的方式，幾乎沒人察覺，直到你突然發現，錢不夠用了。 而現在，美國，這個曾經最有錢、最穩定的世界霸主，正悄悄踏上這條不歸路。 印鈔票、舉債、再印更多的鈔票。他們明明知道後果，卻從不說真話。因為一旦戳破真相，就沒人能全身而退。 全球最大對沖基金的創辦人雷·達利歐，最近在一次重量級 ...

三菱日联：政局不稳及美债收益率支撑美元，日元承压 金十数据7月25日讯，三菱日联的Derek Halpenny在报告中表示，在日本执政联盟在参议院选举中失去 多数席位后，日元可能难以实现反弹，因国内政治不确定性仍居高不下。他指出，日本可能将出现领导 层更替，并可能引发大选。此外，美国短端收益率仍将对美元构成支撑。美国周四公布的初请数据表 明，尽管劳动力市场略显疲软，但整体依然稳定，这与美联储主席鲍威尔抵御降息的政治压力的立场相 一致。 ...

-0.04% -0.04% -0.04% -0.06% 兑 美元 兑 纽元 兑 欧元 -0.06% -0.04% -0.06% 兑 欧元 兑 澳元 -0.06% -0.06% 兑 澳元 兑 纽元 -0.08% -0.08% 兑 纽元 -0.09% @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 金十图示：2025年07月25日（周五）各大货币对表现 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，近期达成的贸易协议减少了一直打压美元的不确定性，但美元几乎没有反弹的空 间。高盛经济学家在一份报告中表示，"广泛提高关税将对美国的相对前景造成压力，从而继续削弱美 元的强势。"虽然与日本的协议改善了华尔街的情绪，但高盛说，日本承诺的5,500亿美元对美投资能否 兑现还有待观察。同时关税成本将在出口商、进口商和消费者之间如何分摊也存在疑问。 高盛：尽管达成了贸易协议，美元仍将承压 ...

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]