荷兰国际银行：美欧贸易协议对欧元影响有限 欧元/美元 金十数据7月11日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，欧盟和美国尚未宣布一 项贸易协议，但这不太可能对欧元兑美元的走势产生重大影响。他说，汇率仍主要受美联储和美国经济 数据的推动。然而，在没有重大数据发布的情况下，如果协议草案的细节今天已经出炉，市场可能会做 出一些短期调整。 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 专题：对话ESG全球领导者 新浪财经ESG评级中心提供包括资讯、报告、培训、咨询等在内的14项ESG服务，助力上市公司传播ESG理念，提升ESG可持续发展表现。点击 查看【 ESG评级中心服务手册】 文 | 新浪财经 李欣然 当前，在向更加绿色、更可持续的未来迈进的过程中，金融机构发挥着重要的作用。他们通过投融资来助力资本流向那些符合可持续发展理念的领域和行 业。可持续金融领域存在哪些风险和机遇？银行应如何将环境和社会等因素纳入日常投融资决策？AI的发展会对可持续金融产生哪些助益？就以上问题， 新浪财经对话荷兰国际集团（以下简称ING）全球可持续发展负责人Anne-Sophie Castelnau女士。 A：这个话题非常广泛，从一开始就是个很有现实相关性的问题。我们为什么如此关注它呢？实际上，我们一直秉持着以事实为依据的思路，高度重视针对 这个话题展开的真实研究以及从中得出的科学反馈。在长期的研究积累过程中，我们不断收集到了越来越多的数据，随着这些数据的不断丰富，一个结论逐 渐清晰地呈现在我们眼前，那就是当下的世界迫切需要实现一种经济模式的转变，向低碳经济转型 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the strengthening of the euro appear to be overstated, as it is beneficial for the Eurozone economy [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The strengthening euro is expected to lower import prices and reduce inflation, which could be a concern for European Central Bank officials [1] - However, the Eurozone should capitalize on this "global euro moment," as previously praised by the ECB President [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - Reallocating global investment portfolios to the Eurozone will likely benefit the borrowing costs for the private sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to tariffs leading to increased inflation, the US dollar is expected to rise in the coming months, contrary to its recent downward trend [1][6] - Chris Turner from ING predicts that the dollar may temporarily escape its decline starting in August, as trade tariffs will accelerate consumer price growth, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][6] - The euro is expected to briefly retreat to the range of 1.13 to 1.15 against the dollar, while the dollar to yen exchange rate is projected to return to the range of 145 to 150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [1][6] Group 2 - The market anticipates at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut expected in September [6] - Turner forecasts that the US inflation rate will rise from 2.4% in May to approximately 4% by August or September, with a median forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter and 3.3% for the last three months of the year [6] - The dollar index has fallen over 9% since 2025, reflecting increased bearish bets on the dollar's future performance [6] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a key factor influencing the dollar's outlook, with a low unemployment rate suggesting a peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar [7] - If the labor market begins to deteriorate, market sentiment may shift towards a more negative outlook for the dollar [7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, may provide short-term support for the dollar index, limiting its decline amid concerns over interest rate cuts [1] Economic Data Impact - The dollar index (DXY) fell to a three-year low due to worries about interest rate cuts [1] - Francesco Pesole from ING suggests that the non-farm employment report could indicate a gradual slowdown in job growth, but not enough to significantly increase bets on a rate cut in July [1] - There is an expectation that inflation may rise in the coming months, which could further support the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk balance indicates that the US dollar may continue to decline, influenced by upcoming economic indicators and Federal Reserve communications [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the US core personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to impact the dollar's performance, with any reading below a month-on-month increase of 0.1% likely to negatively affect the dollar [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Communications - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Kashkari, Williams, and Harker, for signals regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Developments in US tariff policies may also trigger a new round of declines for the dollar, adding to the existing pressures [1]

Core Insights - The Australian retail banking sector is experiencing significant changes driven by digital-first banking, enhanced customer engagement, and competitive product offerings [2] - The Big Four banks (ANZ, Westpac, NAB, and CommBank) maintain a dominant position, while smaller banks are gaining market share through niche, customer-centric services [2] Group 1: Market Analysis - The report benchmarks the largest retail banks in Australia based on financial performance and customer satisfaction metrics [1] - It analyzes market share changes, customer relationship depth, consumer pain points, and key metrics such as Net Promoter Score (NPS), cross-selling, and digital satisfaction [1] Group 2: Key Metrics - ANZ leads with nearly 75% of its customers holding three or more products, indicating strong cross-selling capabilities [6] - ING excels in digital banking usage, with 93% of its customers being digitally active, while it lags in credit card penetration, being 31 percentage points below the average [6] - CommBank retains the highest proportion of customers from childhood, showcasing strong customer loyalty [6] Group 3: Customer Insights - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank has the highest customer acquisitions in the past year, despite struggling with overall performance [6] - The report aims to identify which banks are succeeding or failing across various metrics, including profitability and customer satisfaction [6] Group 4: Actionable Recommendations - The report outlines actionable steps for Australian banks to address their major shortcomings and improve their market position [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the British pound may weaken if upcoming UK data is disappointing, despite the Bank of England's gradual rate cut approach [1] - Analysts at ING expect two more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, with market expectations potentially adjusting for more cuts if data is weak [1] - The recent decision by the Bank of England to maintain interest rates with a 6-3 vote indicates a slightly dovish stance, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in August [1] Group 2 - ING forecasts that the EUR/GBP exchange rate may rise to around 0.8600 in the near term [1]

Company Overview - ING Groep is headquartered in Amsterdam and operates in the Finance sector, with a stock price change of 32.74% since the beginning of the year [3] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.68 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.55%, significantly higher than the Banks - Foreign industry's yield of 3.39% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.57% [3] Dividend Performance - The annualized dividend of ING Groep is $1.36, reflecting a 33.7% increase from the previous year [4] - Over the past 5 years, ING Groep has increased its dividend three times year-over-year, with an average annual increase of 45.79% [4] - The current payout ratio is 31%, indicating that the company paid out 31% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Growth - Earnings growth for ING Groep appears solid, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 projected at $2.24 per share, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 4.67% [5] Investment Considerations - Dividends are favored by investors for various reasons, including tax advantages and risk reduction in portfolios, although not all companies provide quarterly payouts [6] - High-growth firms or tech start-ups typically do not offer dividends, while larger, established companies are often viewed as better dividend options [7] - ING Groep is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis point rate cut, maintaining GDP forecasts for this year while lowering next year's GDP forecast and significantly reducing inflation predictions [1] - UBS anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, with the last cut expected in July, bringing rates down to 1.75%, and a potential rate hike by the end of 2026 to address inflation risks [1] - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point rate cut, noting that the market has already priced in the recent ECB rate cut, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro [1] Group 2 - Nomura Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut, with further cuts expected in July and September until rates reach 1.50%, while adjusting GDP and inflation predictions [1][2] - Deutsche Bank expects a 25 basis point rate cut, suggesting that the terminal rate for the easing cycle should remain at 1.50%, with a potential rate hike to 1.75% by the end of 2026 [2] - Pacific Investment Management Company anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating that the ECB is entering the final phase of its easing cycle, with current market pricing around 1.7% appearing reasonable [3]