Core Insights - Positive results from clinical trials can significantly impact pharmaceutical companies' stock prices, but long-term investors should consider broader factors for sustained performance [1] Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly reported positive phase 3 results for its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, focusing on diabetes patients with A1c reduction as the primary endpoint [4] - The company is expected to release data from late-stage studies for orforglipron in obesity within the next year, which could be pivotal for its market success [5] - Despite potential risks, Eli Lilly's stock is considered a buy due to its strong financial performance and a robust pipeline, including other candidates like retatrutide [6][7] Summit Therapeutics - Summit Therapeutics is developing ivonescimab, a cancer treatment already approved in China, and is conducting trials to support approval in the U.S. and Europe [8] - A key late-stage trial against Merck's Keytruda for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is ongoing, with top-line data expected by the end of next year [9] - The stock price is sensitive to trial results; positive outcomes could significantly boost the stock, while disappointing results may lead to declines [10][11] Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex Pharmaceuticals focuses on developing breakthrough medicines for high unmet needs, including a candidate for type 1 diabetes (T1D), zimislecel, which shows promise in early trials [13] - In a phase 1/2 trial, 10 of 12 patients were insulin-free after one year, and the company plans to submit regulatory applications for zimislecel by 2026 [14] - Vertex continues to lead in cystic fibrosis treatments and has expanded its portfolio with new medicines, positioning itself well for future growth [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Novartis' stock price has increased by 32% since the beginning of the year, with a market capitalization exceeding $240 billion, reaching a historical high. However, the company has not participated in the PD-1 craze or engaged in fierce competition in popular fields like GLP-1 or ADC [2] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Novartis has conducted an in-depth evaluation regarding entering the obesity treatment market but believes that the current GLP-1, GIP, and GIPR drug market will continue to be dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, who are rapidly advancing new generation drug development [4] - The CEO of Novartis, Vas Narasimhan, stated that even with slightly differentiated new products, it would be challenging to break through in the current competitive landscape, as high rebate barriers and mature product portfolios will be established by the time follower drugs are launched [4] - Despite not fully abandoning the obesity treatment direction, Novartis is advancing early-stage research projects exploring truly differentiated new pathways, including evaluating longer-acting drug forms such as biologics or siRNA drugs [4] Group 2: Market Potential and Competitors - The obesity drug market is expected to reach $130 billion, with many pharmaceutical companies actively entering the field. Evaluate's latest report indicates that Novo Nordisk's CagriSema project is currently regarded as the most valuable R&D project in the industry [5] - Following closely is Eli Lilly's orforglipron, a new generation oral GLP-1 agonist. Although Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have first-mover advantages, Evaluate believes that new entrants with sufficient differentiation still have opportunities to establish a foothold in this field [5]

Core Insights - Buy-and-hold investing is effective when the right companies are chosen, with a focus on long-term growth and substantial returns for shareholders [1][2] Company Summaries - **Amazon**: Dominates the U.S. e-commerce market with a 40% market share and leads global cloud services with approximately 30% market share. E-commerce represents only 16.2% of total U.S. retail spending, indicating significant growth potential. The cloud services market is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 22% through 2030, driven by AI demand [4][5] - **Home Depot**: A leader in the U.S. home improvement market valued over $500 billion, with projections for the market to reach $700 billion in North America by 2034. Home Depot has expanded into specialty trades and made a significant acquisition of SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion, positioning itself for continued growth and profitability [6][9] - **Eli Lilly**: A major player in the weight loss market with a 35% market share, poised for growth as the market is expected to expand tenfold over the next decade. Upcoming next-generation drugs may enhance market share, and the company has a promising pipeline [10][11] - **NextEra Energy**: The leading producer of wind and solar power, investing $120 billion in American energy infrastructure over the next four years. The company offers a solid dividend yield of 3%, which has been increased for 30 consecutive years, indicating strong financial health and growth potential [12][14] - **Arm Holdings**: Develops proprietary designs for silicon chips, with a market share increase from 43% in 2022 to 47% at the end of last year. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in technology infrastructure for cloud computing and AI applications [15][16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: Comprehensive analysis of the US drug market conducted by IQVIA Rx Key Market Metrics - **Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth**: - Latest weekly growth (week ending July 11, 2025) was +4.0%, up from +3.4% the previous week and +2.5% over the past 12 weeks [1][6] - For the week ended July 11, the total market weekly TRx YoY change was +4.0%, compared to +1.8% a year ago [2] Prescription Trends - **Rolling 4-week TRx YoY**: +3.0% - **Rolling 12-week TRx YoY**: +2.5% - **Extended Unit (EUTRx) Weekly YoY Growth**: +3.3%, which is below the TRx YoY [2] - **Sequential Weekly TRx Growth**: +12.0%, a significant increase compared to -7.3% the week before [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - Cobenfy approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, with scripts at ~2,040 for the week, up from ~1,820 the previous week [3] - To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3x the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3] - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - Journavx approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, with scripts at ~5,880 for the week, up from ~5,180 the previous week [4] - Hospital scripts, which are not captured by IQVIA, account for ~28% of total scripts [4] - **Gilead Sciences (GILD)**: - Yeztugo approved on June 18, 2025, with latest week TRx at ~70, up from ~20 the previous week [5] - Yeztugo's injectable formulation accounted for 54% of total TRx [5] Competitive Landscape - **Launch Comparisons**: - GILD's Yeztugo compared to Descovy and Apretude [5] - BMY's Sotyktu launch tracked against AMGN's Otezla [9] - LLY's Kisunla launched in July 2024 for Alzheimer's [9] Pricing and Sales Analysis - **Immunology Pricing**: Updated charts for 2Q25 for Stelara and Tremfya, analyzing how additional indications impact price per script [10] - **Biosimilar Adoption**: Comprehensive analysis of biosimilars across various branded drugs [12] Notable Trends - **Seasonal Respiratory Vaccine Tracking**: Exhibits tracking RSV and COVID vaccine weekly and monthly TRx launch trends [11] - **Key Products Performance**: Detailed tracking of TRx market share and performance for major pharmaceutical companies [48] Conclusion - The biopharma industry in North America is experiencing positive growth in total prescriptions, with significant contributions from new product launches and competitive dynamics among major players. The analysis indicates a robust market environment with potential investment opportunities in emerging therapies and established products.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the effectiveness and safety of GLP-1 receptor agonists, specifically Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, in treating obesity and improving health outcomes, as endorsed by public figures like Elon Musk [1][3][5]. Group 1: Efficacy of Semaglutide - Semaglutide has shown significant weight loss results in clinical trials, with an average weight reduction of 15% in obese patients, compared to only 2.4% in the placebo group [7][10]. - In the STEP 1 trial, 34% of participants lost over 20% of their body weight, while the average weight loss was 14.9% [7]. - The STEP 2 trial indicated a 10.6% average weight loss in type 2 diabetes patients, with improvements in cardiovascular risk factors and quality of life [8]. - The STEP 4 trial demonstrated that continuous use of Semaglutide led to an 18.2% weight reduction over time [9]. - Overall, Semaglutide has been approved by the FDA for long-term obesity management, marking it as a significant advancement in obesity treatment [10]. Group 2: Efficacy of Tirzepatide - Tirzepatide has shown promising results in the SURMOUNT trials, with weight reductions of 15.4% to 22.9% depending on the dosage, significantly outperforming the placebo group [11][12]. - The SURMOUNT-3 trial reported a weight loss of up to 26.6% after 12 weeks of lifestyle intervention combined with Tirzepatide treatment [13]. - In head-to-head trials, Tirzepatide demonstrated superior weight loss compared to Semaglutide, with an average reduction of 22.8 kg [13]. Group 3: Safety Profile - Semaglutide is generally well-tolerated, but gastrointestinal side effects such as nausea (17%), diarrhea (12.2%), and vomiting (6.4%) are common [15]. - Approximately 80% of Tirzepatide users reported at least one side effect, primarily gastrointestinal, with nausea reported in 33% of high-dose users [17]. - Experts suggest that Tirzepatide may have a lower frequency and milder symptoms of side effects compared to Semaglutide due to its dual action mechanism [19].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's trade policies, particularly aggressive tariffs on imports, are impacting Wall Street and could increase costs for companies, affecting their margins and stock performance. However, certain healthcare companies like Eli Lilly and Novartis present investment opportunities despite these challenges [1][2]. Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly has committed to investing $50 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing since 2020, with half of this announced in the first quarter [4]. - The company aims to manufacture 100% of medicines for U.S. patients domestically, which will help mitigate the impact of tariffs [5]. - Eli Lilly has shown significant innovation in diabetes and obesity treatments, with new products like Mounjaro and Zepbound generating billions in revenue [5]. - In Q1, Eli Lilly's revenue rose 45% year over year to $12.7 billion, and net income increased by 23% to $2.8 billion [6]. - The company has a strong pipeline, including a promising oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, which could attract patients seeking convenience [7]. - Eli Lilly has increased its dividend payout by 102.7% over the past five years, making it a solid choice for growth and income investors [8]. Novartis - Novartis plans to invest $23 billion over the next five years to enhance its U.S. manufacturing capabilities [9]. - Despite potential short-term impacts from tariffs, Novartis is expected to manage these challenges effectively [10]. - In Q1, Novartis reported a 12% increase in net sales to $13.2 billion and a 22% rise in net income to $4.5 billion [10]. - The company is facing a loss of U.S. patent exclusivity for its heart failure drug Entresto, which generated $2.3 billion in sales in Q1, a 20% increase year over year [11]. - Novartis has prepared for this loss with new medicines like Fabhalta and cancer drugs Scemblix and Pluvicto, which have shown promising sales [11][12]. - The company has increased its dividend for 28 consecutive years, currently offering a forward yield of 3.3%, which is significantly higher than the S&P 500 average [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential of GLP-1 drugs, particularly semaglutide, in treating symptoms of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), highlighting patient experiences and the need for further research and insurance coverage for these treatments. Group 1: Patient Experiences and Outcomes - Grace Hamilton, diagnosed with PCOS, experienced significant improvements in her symptoms after starting semaglutide, including weight loss of 50 pounds and resumption of her menstrual cycle within two weeks [3][4] - Another patient, Haley Sipes, lost over 60 pounds and reported improved emotional health and regular menstrual cycles after taking Zepbound, a GLP-1 drug [28][29] - Nabeelah Karim found relief from her PCOS symptoms and weight loss after using Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, although she faced challenges with insurance coverage [34][35] Group 2: Medical Insights and Research - PCOS affects an estimated 5 to 6 million women in the U.S., often leading to insulin resistance and metabolic issues [4][6] - Current treatments for PCOS are limited, with GLP-1s showing promise in improving insulin sensitivity and weight loss, which may alleviate symptoms [7][14] - Dr. Melanie Cree's ongoing study indicates that GLP-1s may lower testosterone levels and improve ovulation in women with PCOS [19][20] Group 3: Industry and Regulatory Context - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are exploring GLP-1s for various chronic conditions, but not specifically for PCOS due to a lack of established FDA endpoints for clinical trials [10][12] - Insurance coverage remains a significant barrier for many PCOS patients seeking GLP-1 treatments, with only 55% of employers covering these drugs for diabetes [31][32] - The article highlights the ongoing debate regarding compounded versions of GLP-1 drugs, which are not FDA-approved, raising concerns about safety and efficacy [36][38]

All right, time now to get some of our calls of the day. Why don't we start off with Eli Liy added to a catalyst driven ideal list at Morgan Stanley. Kevin, you own this one.Shares up just about 1% right now. Yeah. Well, the catalyst, Frank, is if they can deliver an oral drug.And I believe that they will. This uh this ORFO would be a gamecher 100%. If their orals are as as effective or almost as effective as the injectables, then then this is a catalyst and I couldn't agree more with the call.All right, mo ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of Wall Street analysts' recommendations, particularly focusing on Eli Lilly (LLY), and highlights the potential misalignment of brokerage firms' interests with retail investors' needs [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Recommendations - Eli Lilly has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.46, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 27 brokerage firms' recommendations [2]. - Out of the 27 recommendations, 20 are Strong Buy and 2 are Buy, which account for 74.1% and 7.4% of all recommendations respectively [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Solely relying on ABR for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies suggest that brokerage recommendations often fail to guide investors effectively towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [5]. - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias due to their firms' vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][10]. Comparison with Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, is presented as a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][11]. - Unlike ABR, which is based on brokerage recommendations and may not be timely, the Zacks Rank reflects real-time changes in earnings estimates, making it a more current measure of potential price movements [12]. Current Earnings Estimates for Eli Lilly - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eli Lilly has decreased by 0.3% over the past month to $21.88, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - This decline in consensus estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Eli Lilly, suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump plans to impose steep tariffs on pharmaceutical imports to the U.S., aiming to increase domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign production [1][4][5]. Industry Impact - Approximately 80% of active ingredients in U.S. prescription drugs are sourced from other countries, making the industry vulnerable to tariff changes [1]. - The pharmaceutical industry, including major companies like Eli Lilly, opposes the proposed tariffs, fearing negative impacts on production costs and profit margins [2][8]. Company-Specific Analysis - Eli Lilly's CEO, Dave Ricks, expressed support for increasing domestic investment but criticized tariffs as an ineffective mechanism, suggesting tax incentives instead [6]. - Ricks acknowledged that tariffs could negatively affect Lilly and the broader pharmaceutical industry, a sentiment echoed by Wall Street analysts [7][8]. - Lilly has three potential responses to the tariffs: relocating manufacturing to the U.S., passing increased costs to consumers, or absorbing the higher costs [9][10]. - The company is already planning to enhance its U.S. operations, but analysts believe that completing this transition may take four to five years, longer than the 12 to 18 months suggested by Trump [9]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite the potential short-term challenges posed by tariffs, Lilly's existing U.S. manufacturing capabilities and ongoing production increases may mitigate long-term impacts [11][12]. - Legal challenges against the tariffs could also arise, particularly regarding products manufactured in allied countries like Ireland [12]. - Overall, the long-term investment thesis for Eli Lilly remains intact despite the tariff threats [13].