Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Numerous companies are lowering their profit forecasts for 2025 due to the impact of tariffs and economic uncertainty, indicating a broader trend of caution across various industries. Group 1: Retail Sector - Abercrombie & Fitch lowered its full-year profit forecast for 2025, citing a $50 million hit from tariffs, including a 30% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on other imports [1][2] - Macy's also reduced its earnings per share outlook for the year, attributing it to tariffs, moderation in consumer spending, and increased competition [3] - Target expects sales to decline throughout 2025, previously projecting a 1% growth, due to weaker spending linked to tariff uncertainties [3] Group 2: Consumer Goods and Food & Beverage - Diageo warned of a $150 million hit to annual profits in 2025 but plans to offset half of this impact through unspecified actions [4] - PepsiCo lowered its earnings forecast for 2025, facing higher supply chain costs due to tariffs and a volatile consumer environment [15] - Kraft Heinz also lowered its outlook, citing a volatile operating environment influenced by tariffs and inflation [13] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Ford expects tariffs to reduce its earnings before interest and taxes by about $1.5 billion in 2025 and has suspended its full-year guidance [8] - General Motors lowered its earnings forecast to between $10 billion and $12.5 billion, down from $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion, due to the impact of tariffs [12] - Toyota estimated a $1.25 billion profit loss in April and March due to U.S. tariffs, forecasting a nearly 21% dip in operating income through 2025 [5] Group 4: Technology and Electronics - AMD anticipates a $1.5 billion revenue loss in 2025 due to restrictions on chip shipments to China [7] - Apple expects a $900 million hit to its bottom line in the second quarter due to tariffs, complicating future predictions [10] - Logitech withdrew its outlook for the 2026 fiscal year due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [17] Group 5: Airlines and Transportation - JetBlue and Alaska Airlines both pulled their full-year guidance for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty [13][17] - Delta Airlines withdrew its full-year guidance, citing broad macro uncertainty [18] - United Airlines issued a second guidance featuring significantly lower earnings for 2025, reflecting the unpredictable economic environment [17] Group 6: Miscellaneous - Steve Madden withdrew its financial guidance for 2025, facing heightened uncertainty from new tariffs [6] - Rivian lowered its targets for vehicle deliveries and capital spending for 2025 due to significant uncertainty in the global economic landscape [6] - Snap declined to issue guidance for its second quarter, citing uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions affecting advertising demand [14]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's has reduced its annual profit forecast due to the impact of tariffs and a slowdown in consumer spending, indicating a cautious outlook for the retail sector [1][3][4] Financial Performance - The company now expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.60 to $2 for 2025, down from a previous forecast of $2.05 to $2.25, with 15 to 40 cents of the drop attributed to tariffs [1][3] - Macy's reaffirmed its annual sales forecast of $21 billion to $21.4 billion, a decline from last year's $22.29 billion [4] - For the three months ended May 3, adjusted earnings per share were reported at 16 cents, beating projections of 14 cents, while revenue was $4.6 billion, above expectations of $4.5 billion [4] Market Challenges - The company faces challenges from a slowdown in consumer spending and increased competition in promotions and discounts across the retail industry [3][8] - Comparable sales at Macy's locations fell 0.8% compared to the same period last year, while same-store sales at Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury increased by 3.8% and 1.5%, respectively [7][9] Strategic Initiatives - Macy's is undergoing a three-year turnaround plan, which includes closing 150 locations by early 2027 and enhancing its Bluemercury and Bloomingdale's businesses [5][6] - The company has invested in staffing, improved displays, and a new merchandise mix at 125 locations, which is about one-third of the stores it plans to keep open [6][11] Stock Performance - Macy's shares have decreased by approximately 27% so far this year [10][13]

Group 1 - Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M) has experienced a significant decline in share price, losing 41% over the past year [1] - Investors are dissatisfied with the slow pace of the company's turnaround efforts, particularly after it rejected a buyout offer [1] - The company has a history of making contrarian bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories to achieve outsized returns [1]

Company Impact - Macy's lowered its full-year profit forecast for 2025 due to higher tariffs affecting its business [1] - Target expects sales to decline throughout 2025, previously projecting a 1% growth, citing weaker spending amid tariff uncertainty [2] - Diageo anticipates a $150 million hit to annual profits in 2025 but plans to offset half of this impact through unspecified actions [3] - Walmart warned that higher tariffs will lead to increased prices, unable to absorb all the pressure due to narrow retail margins [4] - Ford expects tariffs to reduce its earnings before interest and taxes by about $1.5 billion in 2025 and has suspended its full-year guidance [7] - General Motors lowered its earnings forecast for 2025 to between $10 billion and $12.5 billion, down from $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion, adjusting to the new trade policy environment [10] - Kraft Heinz lowered its full-year outlook due to a volatile operating environment influenced by tariffs and inflation [11] - PepsiCo lowered its earnings forecast for 2025, facing higher supply chain costs due to tariffs and a subdued consumer backdrop [13] Industry Trends - Companies across various sectors are withdrawing or adjusting their financial guidance for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty driven by tariffs [5][8][12] - The automotive industry, including Toyota and Ford, is particularly affected, with significant expected declines in operating income and earnings [4][10] - The retail sector is experiencing heightened competition and promotional landscapes, leading to cautious outlooks from companies like Macy's and Target [2][1] - Airlines are also pulling their full-year guidance, citing economic uncertainty and volatility, with JetBlue and Alaska Airlines among those affected [11][15] - The overall sentiment in the market reflects a cautious approach as companies navigate the unpredictable tariff environment and its implications on profitability [9][16]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. has revised its annual outlook due to initial and current tariffs, moderation in consumer discretionary spending, and increased competition, leading to a decrease in expected adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported net sales of $4.6 billion for Q1 2025, a decline of 5.1% year over year, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $4.50 billion [3] - Comparable sales decreased by 2.0% on an owned basis and 1.2% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis [3] - Adjusted earnings were reported at 16 cents per share, surpassing the consensus of 14 cents [4] - Core adjusted EBITDA was $308 million, down from $363 million a year ago [4] Future Guidance - For fiscal 2025, Macy's has lowered its adjusted earnings per share guidance from $2.05-$2.25 to $1.60-$2.00, compared to the consensus of $1.93 [1] - The company maintained its sales guidance for 2025 at $21 billion-$21.4 billion, slightly below the consensus of $21.31 billion [1] - For Q2 2025, Macy's forecasts sales between $4.65 billion and $4.75 billion and adjusted earnings of 15 to 20 cents per share, compared to the consensus of $4.76 billion and 34 cents, respectively [5] Margin and Sales Trends - The gross margin remained flat at 39.2%, with improved merchandise margin offset by higher delivery expenses as a percentage of net sales [4] - Comparable sales for the go-forward business were down 1.8% on an owned basis and 0.9% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis [4] - Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury reported positive sales growth, with Bloomingdale's net sales up 2.6% and Bluemercury's up 0.8% [6]

Core Insights - Retailers are experiencing mixed earnings reports, reflecting the impact of tariffs, consumer demand, and operational resilience [1] Group 1: Macy's Inc - Macy's reported adjusted first-quarter earnings of 16 cents per share on revenue of $4.60 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations [2] - The company has cut its full-year profit forecast due to tariff hikes and increased promotions [2] - Macy's is undergoing a significant turnaround, closing approximately 150 stores and focusing on stronger brands like Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury [2] - Despite a 4% increase before the market opened, Macy's stock is down over 28% year to date [2] Group 2: Abercrombie & Fitch Co - Abercrombie & Fitch's stock surged over 28% in premarket trading following a strong first quarter [3] - The retailer posted earnings of $1.59 per share on $1.1 billion in revenue, significantly surpassing estimates [3] - Although Abercrombie issued positive guidance for the current quarter, it reduced its full-year profit forecast due to an anticipated $50 million impact from tariffs [3] - Prior to this report, Abercrombie's stock was down 48.4% in 2025 [3] Group 3: Dick's Sporting Goods Inc - Dick's Sporting Goods saw its stock rise 5% in electronic trading after reporting earnings of $3.37 per share on $3.17 billion in net sales, both exceeding analyst forecasts [4] - The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook and is managing tariff challenges effectively [4] - Dick's announced plans to acquire rival Foot Locker, indicating confidence in its long-term strategy [4] - Dick's Sporting Goods has a year-to-date deficit of 23.9% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's reported quarterly earnings of $0.16 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.14 per share, but down from $0.27 per share a year ago, indicating a 40.74% year-over-year decline in earnings [1] - The company achieved a revenue of $4.6 billion for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.16%, but down from $4.85 billion year-over-year, reflecting a 5.12% decrease [2] Financial Performance - The earnings surprise for the latest quarter was 14.29%, and the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters [1][2] - Macy's shares have declined approximately 28.9% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 0.7% [3] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.32 on revenues of $4.72 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.03 on revenues of $21.18 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Macy's is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Regional Department Stores industry is currently in the bottom 25% of the Zacks industry rankings, suggesting that stocks in this sector may struggle compared to those in the top 50% [8] - Another competitor in the same industry, Kohl's, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.22 per share, with revenues projected at $3.2 billion, down 5.2% from the previous year [9][10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reached $4.6 billion, exceeding guidance of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion [9][29] - Comparable owned plus licensed plus marketplace sales declined by 1.2%, better than the guidance of a decline of 4.5% to 2.5% [9][29] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.16, above the guidance range of $0.12 to $0.15, compared to $0.27 last year [11][33] - Gross margin was $1.8 billion or 39.2% of net sales, flat compared to the prior year [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Macy's net sales were down 6.5%, with comparable sales down 2.1% [30] - Bloomingdale's net sales increased by 2.6%, with comparable sales rising by 3.8% [31] - Blue Mercury net sales were up 0.8%, with comparable sales increasing by 1.5% [31] - Backstage outperformed the total Macy's fleet, while Marketplace achieved approximately 40% GMV growth [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International tourism negatively impacted comparable sales by about 30 basis points [10] - The go-forward business comps outperformed total, declining by 0.9% [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its "Bold New Chapter" strategy, which includes strengthening and reimagining Macy's, accelerating luxury, and modernizing operations [8][12] - The reimagined 125 locations outperformed the rest of the Macy's fleet, with a negative comp of 0.8% compared to a negative 2.1% for the total Macy's nameplate [12][30] - The company aims to diversify sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, with 20% of products originating from China, down from over 50% pre-pandemic [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the second quarter, noting stronger performance in March and April compared to February [45] - The company anticipates a more choiceful consumer and plans to navigate an uncertain promotional environment [22][35] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a healthy inventory to sales ratio while being disciplined with inventory commitments [22][39] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest approximately $800 million in capital expenditures to support long-term growth [38] - SG&A expenses were relatively flat at $1.9 billion, with a percentage of total revenue at 39.9%, reflecting lower net sales [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sales guidance and consumer pressure - Management reaffirmed the annual sales guidance, noting stronger performance in March and April compared to February, and expressed cautious optimism for the rest of the year [44][45] Question: Impact of tariffs on pricing - Pricing is gradually being impacted by tariffs, with limited pricing seen in the second quarter, and management is negotiating with suppliers to manage costs [52][56] Question: Actions to capture market share - The company is focusing on product flow, improving marketing quality, and enhancing in-store experiences to capture market share [66] Question: Gross margin pressure in Q2 - Management indicated that gross margin pressure in Q2 will be influenced by markdowns and tariffs, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing [68][69] Question: Inventory planning amid tariffs - The company plans to remain disciplined in inventory management, avoiding over-purchasing to mitigate tariff impacts [90] Question: Consumer health across income cohorts - Consumer health remains under pressure, but there is a positive response to newness and good value, particularly in categories like fine jewelry and big-ticket items [113][115]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reached $4.6 billion, exceeding guidance of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion [9][29] - Comparable owned plus licensed plus marketplace sales declined by 1.2%, better than the guidance of a decline of 4.5% to 2.5% [9][29] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.16, above the guidance range of $0.12 to $0.15, compared to $0.27 last year [11][33] - Gross margin was $1.8 billion or 39.2% of net sales, flat compared to the prior year [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Macy's net sales were down 6.5%, with comparable sales down 2.1% [30] - Bloomingdale's net sales increased by 2.6%, with comparable sales rising by 3.8% [31] - Blue Mercury net sales were up 0.8%, with comparable sales increasing by 1.5% [31] - Backstage outperformed the total Macy's fleet, while Marketplace achieved approximately 40% GMV growth [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International tourism negatively impacted comparable sales by about 30 basis points [10] - The go-forward business comps outperformed total, declining by 0.9% [10] - The luxury segment showed resilience, with Bloomingdale's and Blue Mercury continuing their positive comp trends [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its "Bold New Chapter" strategy, emphasizing omni-channel performance and reimagining store locations [8][9] - The strategy includes strengthening Macy's, differentiating luxury offerings, and modernizing operations [15][16] - The company aims to leverage generative AI to modernize its supply chain and improve inventory allocation [9][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the second quarter, noting improved performance in May compared to earlier months [43][44] - The company is navigating uncertainties related to tariffs and consumer behavior, with a focus on maintaining flexibility in inventory commitments [22][23] - Management highlighted the importance of strategic pricing decisions to offset tariff impacts while remaining competitive [45][46] Other Important Information - The company closed 64 underperforming locations as part of its strategy [25] - The impact of tariffs is estimated to affect annual gross margin by roughly 20 to 40 basis points [20] - The company plans to invest in customer-facing initiatives funded by savings from closed locations [32][38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sales guidance and consumer pressure - Management reaffirmed annual sales guidance, noting stronger performance in March and April compared to February, with cautious optimism for the rest of the year [43][44] Question: Strategic pricing decisions - Pricing adjustments are being made selectively, with a focus on maintaining value for customers while managing tariff impacts [45][46] Question: Impact of tariffs on pricing and consumer willingness - Pricing is gradually being integrated into the system, with limited increases observed in the second quarter [51][52] Question: Actions to capture market share - The company is enhancing product offerings, improving marketing quality, and enhancing in-store experiences to capture market share [65][66] Question: Reimagine 125 performance and future plans - Management remains optimistic about the Reimagine 125 initiative, with improvements noted in March and May [75][76] Question: SG&A guidance range - The SG&A guidance range provides flexibility to navigate various scenarios amid uncertainty [78][79] Question: Consumer health and category performance - Consumer health remains under pressure, but there is a positive response to newness and value [114][115]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter net sales reached $4.6 billion, exceeding guidance of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion, with a decline of 5.1% year-over-year [7][27] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.16, above the guidance range of $0.12 to $0.15, compared to $0.27 last year [9][32] - Comparable sales (comps) declined 1.2%, better than the guidance of a decline of 4.5% to 2.5% [7][27] - Gross margin was $1.8 billion or 39.2% of net sales, flat compared to the prior year [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Macy's net sales were down 6.5% with comps down 2.1% [28] - Bloomingdale's net sales increased by 2.6% with comps rising 3.8% [30] - Blue Mercury's net sales were up 0.8% with comps increasing 1.5% [30] - Backstage outperformed full-line stores by several hundred basis points, while Marketplace achieved approximately 40% GMV growth [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International tourism negatively impacted comps by about 30 basis points [8] - Go forward business comps declined 0.9%, outperforming total comps [8] - The luxury segment showed resilience with Bloomingdale's and Blue Mercury continuing positive comp trends [12][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its "Bold New Chapter" strategy, emphasizing omni-channel performance and improving customer experience [6][10] - The strategy includes strengthening and reimagining Macy's, accelerating luxury offerings, and modernizing operations [10][14][15] - The company aims to diversify sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, reducing reliance on China from over 50% pre-pandemic to 20% currently [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the second quarter, noting improved performance in May compared to earlier months [43][44] - The company anticipates a more choiceful consumer and plans to navigate a competitive promotional landscape [21][34] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a healthy inventory to sales ratio while being disciplined with inventory commitments [21][22] Other Important Information - The company closed 64 underperforming locations last year as part of its strategy [24] - Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $800 million, reflecting a commitment to long-term growth [37] - The company plans to return approximately $152 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sales guidance and consumer pressure - Management reaffirmed annual sales guidance, noting stronger performance in March and April compared to February, with cautious optimism for the rest of the year [43][44] Question: Strategic pricing decisions - Pricing adjustments are being made selectively, with a focus on maintaining value for consumers while navigating tariff impacts [45][46] Question: Impact of tariffs on pricing - Pricing is gradually being integrated into the system, with limited pricing seen in Q2, and negotiations with vendors are ongoing [50][51] Question: Actions to capture market share - The company is focusing on product diversity, improved marketing, and enhanced in-store experiences to capture market share [59][62] Question: Inventory planning amid tariffs - The company plans to remain disciplined with inventory flow and avoid over-purchasing to mitigate tariff impacts [86][87] Question: Consumer health across income cohorts - Consumer health remains under pressure, but discretionary spending is showing signs of improvement, particularly in categories like fine jewelry [108][110]