Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season has shown solid performance, with a projected 13.4% increase in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][25] - Retailers are under scrutiny as they report results, particularly in light of softening consumer sentiment ahead of the holiday shopping season [4] Earnings Reports - Macy's reported a surprise profit with its strongest comparable sales in over three years, but its elevated sales guidance fell short of last year's numbers, leading to a 3% drop in stock [5] - American Eagle Outfitters experienced an 11% stock surge after reporting a profit per share of $0.53, exceeding estimates, and a 6% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.36 billion [7][8] - CrowdStrike raised its full-year revenue guidance after reporting a 22% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.23 billion, despite a diluted loss per share of $0.14 [10][11][12] - Okta's revenue rose 12% to $742 million, beating estimates, but the stock fell due to market reactions [15][16] - Marvell reported earnings per share of $2.20 on revenue of $2.07 billion, but its stock slid 6% after announcing a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI [17][18] - Credo's stock surged 20% after reporting a profit of $0.44 per share and revenue of $268 million, both exceeding expectations [20][21] - MongoDB's stock soared 15% after reporting revenue of $628.3 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, and a smaller-than-expected loss per share [22][23][24] Market Reactions - Despite solid earnings, market reactions have been more negative than usual, with stocks of companies that missed earnings estimates dropping by an average of 5% [25][27] - Companies that beat earnings estimates saw an average stock price increase of only 0.4%, below the five-year average of 0.9% [26] Sector-Specific Insights - Deere's stock fell 5% after its outlook for the year fell short of expectations amid uncertainty in the US farm economy [28] - Dick's Sporting Goods reported a GAAP earnings per diluted share of $2.07, missing estimates, leading to a 2% drop in stock [40] - Abercrombie & Fitch's stock surged over 18% after reporting earnings per share of $2.36, driven by strong sales at its Hollister brand [42][43] - Best Buy's stock rose 3% after beating analysts' estimates and raising its full-year outlook [46] - Kohl's stock soared 42% after reporting better-than-expected results and increasing its full-year outlook [47] - Alibaba's stock rose 4% after beating quarterly revenue estimates, driven by investments in one-hour delivery and strong growth in its cloud division [48]

Market Overview - The stock market had a rocky start in December, with major averages closing at the lows of the day, influenced by a sell-off in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [2][20] - The Dow closed down 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 underperformed, down 1.25% [21][23] - The rise in bond yields, particularly an increase of eight basis points in the 10-year yield, contributed to the market's decline [24][28] Prediction Markets and Consumer Risks - Prediction markets are experiencing significant growth, with platforms like Poly Market and Kelshi attracting major investments, raising concerns about consumer credit risk [4][9] - The rise of these markets may lead to consumers overextending themselves financially, particularly among younger and lower-income demographics [15][16] - Lenders may face new risks as traditional underwriting models do not account for the rapid growth of online betting and prediction markets [11][14] Holiday Shopping Trends - The holiday shopping season is underway, with Cyber Monday expected to see spending exceed $14 billion [38] - Strong performance was noted in young fashion retailers and beauty specialty stores, with Macy's showing positive store traffic despite a slight decline [39][41] - Retailers managed inventory effectively during Black Friday, with solid stock levels observed, setting a positive outlook for the holiday season [48][49] Retailer Strategies - Macy's is focusing on enhancing customer service and staffing to differentiate itself from value channels, which is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage [52] - The trend of digital shopping is growing, with consumers utilizing tools like chat GPT for comparison shopping, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [54] - Retailers are emphasizing in-store experiences and promotions to attract customers, blending online and offline shopping experiences [55]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its price target on Macy's to $7.00 from $6.50 while maintaining a Sell rating [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - UBS's recent channel checks indicated stronger-than-expected third-quarter sales trends, prompting an increase in Q3 earnings forecast by $0.18 to a loss of $0.12 per share, with an expectation of an EPS beat of $0.03 [2] - Despite the improved quarterly outlook, Macy's is likely to reaffirm its fiscal 2025 guidance due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [2] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market seems to anticipate a similar stance from Macy's management, which reduces the likelihood of significant revisions to consensus estimates or major movements in the stock's valuation multiple following the earnings report [3] - There is potential upside if Macy's provides more positive commentary on early fourth-quarter trends, but elevated bullish sentiment could turn the Q3 release into a "market-clearing event" [3] - The options market is pricing in a ±10.5% move on earnings, which is higher than Macy's historical average of 7.8%, indicating expectations for increased post-print volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. is approaching its Q3 earnings report on December 3, with the stock currently experiencing a bullish Cakra breakout within its Adhishthana cycle, indicating potential positive momentum ahead [1]. Group 1: Cakra Breakout and Phases - Under the Adhishthana Principles, Macy's has developed a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8, which is a long-term consolidation zone with bullish implications [2]. - Macy's entered Phase 4 in January 2022 and has since broken out decisively in Phase 9, resulting in a rally of approximately 38%, with a remarkable increase of over 116% in Phase 9 alone [3]. - Phase 9 for Macy's will continue until January 20, 2026, after which it will transition into Phase 10, where the likelihood of peak formation increases [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment - With strong momentum in Phase 9 and the upcoming Q3 earnings, volatility is anticipated, but it is not expected to negatively impact the bullish structure [7]. - Investors holding Macy's stock have strong reasons to maintain their positions, as the breakout from the Cakra pattern supports a sustained bullish outlook, with any near-term dips likely being structural pauses rather than trend reversals [8]. - Macy's remains firmly within the ascent leg of the Himalayan Formation, with Phase 9 still having time to unfold before entering Phase 10, which may signal the first signs of an eventual peak [10].

Core Viewpoint - Macy's, Inc. is expected to report a significant loss in its upcoming quarterly earnings, reflecting ongoing challenges in the competitive retail market [2][5]. Financial Performance - Analysts predict a loss of $0.14 per share for the quarter ending October 2025, representing a 450% decline compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - Revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be approximately $4.53 billion, which indicates a 3.3% decrease from the previous year [3][5]. Market Valuation - The company's price-to-sales ratio is 0.26, suggesting a relatively low market valuation in relation to its sales [3]. - Macy's enterprise value to sales ratio stands at approximately 0.47, reflecting the company's total valuation in relation to its revenue [4]. - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 7.63, indicating a moderate valuation based on cash flow generation [4]. Financial Stability - Macy's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.23, indicating a higher level of debt compared to equity [4]. - The current ratio of 1.38 suggests that Macy's maintains a good level of liquidity to cover its short-term liabilities [4].

新华社纽约11月30日电 记者手记｜美国"黑五"消费难掩经济隐忧 根据美国软件公司赛富时的数据，美国消费者今年"黑色星期五"的消费总额比去年增加3%，低于全球 当日线上销售6%的增幅。与此同时，由于价格上涨阻碍了线上需求，与去年相比，消费者购买的商品 反而减少了。 新华社记者刘亚南 经历美国关税政策频繁扰动，被视为美国消费"晴雨表"的感恩节假日零售数据备受关注。今年"黑色星 期五"购物日，记者在美国见证了经济下行压力下更挑剔的消费者、更昂贵的商品以及利润空间不断被 压缩的零售商。 近期，美国就业市场降温、高物价压力持续等因素严重打压消费者信心。美国劳工部日前公布数据显 示，美国9月失业率升至4.4%，为2021年11月以来最高水平。过去一周，与消费相关的负面消息接踵而 至。美国联邦储备委员会"褐皮书"显示，美国消费支出整体进一步下滑，关税导致制造业和零售业成本 普遍承压；世界大型企业研究会调查数据显示，美国11月消费者信心指数降至今年4月以来最低水平。 美国包装食品品牌卡夫亨氏公司首席执行官卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯-里维拉表示，进入圣诞季，美国消费者 情绪处于几十年来"最糟糕的状态之一"。 更加精打细算，是美国消费 ...

Key Points New York City-based Cooper Creek Partners Management sold nearly 6.7 million shares of Macy's in the third quarter. In light of the sales, the value of the overall position fell by about $73 million quarter to quarter. Cooper Creek still holds 740,517 shares of Macy's valued at $13.3 million as of quarter-end. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › On November 14, Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC disclosed a major sale of Macy's shares in the third quarter, acco ...

This fund just slashed its Macy’s stake despite the retailer beating earnings and accelerating its turnaround—here’s what long-term investors should take away.On November 14, Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC disclosed a major sale of Macy's shares in the third quarter, according to a new SEC filing.What HappenedAccording to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing published November 14, Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC sold nearly 6.7 million shares of Macy's (M 0.31%) in the third quarter, ...

Market Overview - U.S. major indices have underperformed in November, particularly the Nasdaq, while Europe's Stoxx 600 has achieved its fifth consecutive positive month [1] - Concerns over AI valuations and spending plans have negatively impacted tech stocks globally [1] Santa Rally Potential - Historical data shows that the FTSE 100 has delivered positive returns in December 24 out of the last 30 years, suggesting a potential for a Santa Rally [2] - Markets are pricing in a 90% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in December, which could boost market sentiment [2] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to cut rates, which is viewed positively as their policy is considered to be in a "good place" [3] - There is an 83% chance of a Federal Reserve rate reduction in December, which could influence market movements [3][4] Market Risks - Concerns remain regarding the pace of AI hyperscaler spending, with warnings from the ECB about stretched U.S. tech valuations due to "fear of missing out" among investors [5] - The potential for "sharp correlated price adjustments" in AI-driven stocks is highlighted as a key risk [5] Cryptocurrency Outlook - Bitcoin is predicted to continue its decline as newer investors sell off their holdings, with long-term holders also potentially selling due to the upcoming "halving" event [7] - The pressure on Bitcoin may persist into year-end, affecting overall market sentiment [7] Upcoming Global Events - Key global events in December include the Federal Reserve policy decision on December 10, the Swiss National Bank policy decision on December 11, and the Bank of England and European Central Bank policy decisions on December 18 [8]

Core Insights - Cyber Monday, occurring on December 1, 2025, has evolved into a significant online shopping event, extending into a full "Cyber Week" with major retailers offering substantial discounts [1][3][12] Retailer Promotions - Amazon's Cyber Monday sale runs from November 29 to December 1, featuring discounts of up to 50% on tech products, 40% on select floorcare, and 50% on kitchen essentials [6][13] - Best Buy's event from November 30 to December 1 highlights electronics, with discounts reaching 63% on Chromebooks and 55% on TVs [8][13] - Target's sale, also from November 30 to December 1, includes up to 50% off clothing and shoes, and significant discounts on tech products [8][13] - Walmart's online sale on December 1 offers early access for Walmart+ members, with discounts on furniture, sports gear, and toys [9][13] - Macy's online-only sale from November 30 to December 1 features discounts of 60-70% on bedding and 50-60% on handbags and shoes [10][13] Historical Context - The term "Cyber Monday" was first coined by the National Retail Federation in 2005, recognizing the increase in online shopping as consumers returned to work after Thanksgiving [3][12]