Core Concept - McDonald's is launching a limited-time collaboration with the upcoming film "A Minecraft Movie," featuring special meals and collectibles that enhance the gaming experience for fans [1][2][8]. Product Offerings - The "A Minecraft Movie Meal" includes a choice of a Big Mac or 10-piece Chicken McNuggets, medium fries, a drink, and a limited-edition collectible [4][6]. - The "A Minecraft Movie Happy Meal" features one of 12 film-inspired figurines or Block World toys, along with a scannable code for an exclusive digital game [5][6]. Digital and In-Game Experiences - Each "A Minecraft Movie Meal" comes with one of six collectibles inspired by McDonald's characters and menu items, which can unlock exclusive skins in the Minecraft Marketplace [6][7]. - Purchasing through the McDonald's App provides a one-time redeemable code for the McDonald's Add-On pack in Minecraft, enhancing gameplay with additional characters and tools [7]. Marketing Strategy - The campaign aims to create an immersive experience that resonates with both McDonald's and Minecraft fan bases, leveraging existing fan creativity within the game [8]. - The promotion is set to begin on April 1, 2025, coinciding with the film's release on April 4, 2025 [2][10]. Company Background - McDonald's operates over 40,000 locations in more than 100 countries, with approximately 95% of its restaurants owned by independent local business owners [9].

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's and Restaurant Brands International are two prominent restaurant stocks for long-term investment, with McDonald's focusing on a single brand and Restaurant Brands managing multiple iconic names, including Tim Hortons and Burger King [1] Dividend Comparison - McDonald's has a strong history of dividend growth, increasing its dividend for 48 consecutive years, positioning it to become a Dividend King [3] - Restaurant Brands, formed in 2014, lacks the same historical track record but has also been growing its dividends [4] Payout Ratios - McDonald's has a lower payout ratio of under 60% of earnings, indicating more room for future dividend increases [5] - In contrast, Restaurant Brands has a higher payout ratio, which may raise concerns about its sustainability if not improved [6] Growth Prospects - Restaurant Brands may have better growth prospects due to its strategy of leveraging acquisitions to diversify operations, including the acquisition of Carrols Restaurant Group [7] - In 2024, Restaurant Brands reported comparable sales growth of 2.3%, while McDonald's experienced a decline of 0.1% [8] Investment Recommendation - For dividend-focused investors, McDonald's is recommended due to its proven track record, modest payout ratio, and strong brand, despite current sluggish sales [9] - Restaurant Brands is considered a cheaper stock with potential for long-term growth, trading at 21 times trailing earnings compared to nearly 27 for McDonald's [10]

Group 1: Stock Performance - McDonald's closed at $306.92, reflecting a +1.09% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.08% [1] - Over the past month, McDonald's shares have decreased by 0.4%, which is better than the Retail-Wholesale sector's decline of 11.45% and the S&P 500's drop of 8.26% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect McDonald's to report earnings of $2.68 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 0.74% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $6.13 billion, down 0.55% from the same quarter last year [2] Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $12.23 per share and revenue at $26.37 billion, representing increases of +4.35% and +1.74% respectively from the prior year [3] Group 4: Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for McDonald's are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [4] Group 5: Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows McDonald's currently holds a rank of 3 (Hold) [6] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for McDonald's has decreased by 0.23% [6] Group 6: Valuation Metrics - McDonald's has a Forward P/E ratio of 24.83, which is higher than the industry average of 23.14 [7] - The PEG ratio for McDonald's is 3.11, compared to the Retail - Restaurants industry's average PEG ratio of 2.08 [7] Group 7: Industry Ranking - The Retail - Restaurants industry, which includes McDonald's, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 142, placing it in the bottom 44% of over 250 industries [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment potential of McDonald's (MCD) shares, highlighting a beneficial long position held by the analyst [1]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a personal opinion on McDonald's stock performance, indicating a positive outlook based on current market conditions [1]. - The article emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results, suggesting a cautious approach to investment decisions [2].

Company Insights - Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) is offering holiday-themed products such as Irish Soda Bread, Irish Butter, and Corned Beef for St. Patrick's Day, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 24.3% for this year and a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [10][11] - Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is a global manufacturer of beer, with core brands including Blue Moon and Coors Light, and has an estimated earnings growth rate of 6.5% for this year, holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [11][12] - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has reintroduced the Shamrock Shake and Oreo Shamrock McFlurry for the holiday, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 4.4% for this year and a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [13][14] - Jack in the Box (JACK) is promoting its Lucky Mint Trio drinks for St. Patrick's Day and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 [15] - Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR), formed from the merger of Tim Hortons and Burger King, is participating in the celebrations by offering free onion rings to Royal Perks members, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 11.4% for this year and a Zacks Rank 3 [16][17] Industry Trends - St. Patrick's Day is one of the largest beer-drinking holidays in the U.S., with 38.7 million pints of Guinness expected to be consumed, leading to an expenditure of $421.6 million [3] - Consumers are projected to spend $7 billion on St. Patrick's Day this year, a slight decline from $7.2 billion last year, with an average spend of $44 per person [6] - 33% of U.S. consumers plan to celebrate St. Patrick's Day, with 92% intending to purchase items for the holiday, primarily food (56%) and alcoholic beverages (46%) [4][6]

2025年03月16日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 资金持续流出，速度略有放缓 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 中性·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：半导体回升，消费板块趋弱 本周，美股进一步回撤，标普500跌2.3%。 风格：小盘成长（罗素2000成长-1.2%）>小盘价值（罗素2000价值-1.8%）>大盘价值（罗素1000价值-1.9%）>大盘成长（罗素1000成长-2.6%）。 4个行业上涨，20个行业下跌。强势行业：半导体产品与设备（+4.4%）、能源（+2.6%）、公用事业（+2%）、保险（+0.4%）；弱势行业：技术硬件与设备（- 8.8%）、食品与主要用品零售（-6.3%）、耐用消费品与服装（-6.2%）、消费者服务（-5.6%）、运输（-5.4%）。 资金流向：资金持续流出，速度略有放缓 本周，美股资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is facing challenges due to uncertain economic conditions, leading to reduced consumer spending and reliance on price hikes is no longer effective [1][6][10] Sales Performance - Comparable sales growth is a critical metric for assessing restaurant performance, excluding new store openings and closures [3] - McDonald's reported a global comparable store sales increase of only 0.4% for Q4 2024, with a decline of 1.4% in the U.S. [4] - Chipotle achieved a comparable sales growth of 5.4% in the same period, down from 8.4% a year prior [4] Future Expectations - Both McDonald's and Chipotle anticipate improvements in sales as the year progresses, with McDonald's CFO expressing expectations for gradual stabilization in the macroeconomic environment [5] - Chipotle expects to benefit from weaker comparable numbers from the previous year in the second half [5] Consumer Behavior - There is a noted shift in consumer habits towards spending more on food at home, as reported by Costco, indicating a more cautious approach to spending [7] - Concerns about tariffs are influencing consumer behavior, with potential for increased costs for restaurants and reduced discretionary income for consumers [8] Economic Risks - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic conditions poses risks for restaurant sales and profits, with potential for a significant downturn [9] - Investors are advised to temper expectations regarding restaurant stocks, as the industry may face challenges until economic conditions improve [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Several Wall Street companies have faced consumer backlash over their positions on controversial global issues, leading to boycotts that affected sales and stock prices. However, in 2025, some of these firms are showing signs of recovery, presenting potential investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) - Starbucks experienced a backlash due to its workers' union supporting Palestine amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, resulting in a boycott from pro-Palestinian activists [3][4]. - In 2024, Starbucks' sales declined by 2% in North America and 7% internationally, leading to the closure of Middle Eastern outlets and the loss of over 2,000 jobs [4]. - In 2025, Starbucks' shares have increased by over 7% year-to-date, supported by new product launches and a $3 million pledge for Gaza relief, with the stock trading at $98.11 [4]. - The company's P/E ratio is 36.51, indicating it is fairly overvalued, but expected earnings growth of 47% could justify this valuation [5][6]. - For the last quarter, Starbucks reported $9.4 billion in revenue, slightly exceeding expectations, but net income fell to $780.8 million from $1.02 billion a year ago, with same-store sales down 4% [6]. Group 2: McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) - McDonald's faced controversy when its Israeli franchisee provided free meals to Israeli soldiers, leading to a boycott from pro-Palestinian advocates, particularly in Muslim-majority regions [8]. - The company missed its first quarterly sales target in four years in 2024, with growth in the Middle East, China, and India at just 0.7%, significantly below the expected 5.5% [9]. - As of the last trading session, McDonald's stock was valued at $299.83, with a year-to-date increase of 3.4% [10]. - The company is addressing challenges by expanding value menus, launching new products, and rebuilding consumer confidence [11]. - McDonald's has 150 million loyalty members and ongoing automation efforts that support long-term growth, alongside a 2.4% dividend yield and a forward P/E ratio of 25.74, indicating strong fundamentals [13].

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's has shown resilience in a declining market, with a year-to-date increase of over 10%, making it one of the best performers in the Dow [1] Group 1: Growth Projections - McDonald's is implementing AI solutions at over 40,000 locations to enhance customer ordering and alleviate employee pressure, contributing to its growth [2] - The company expects a 47% increase in 90-day active users, reaching 250 million by the end of 2027, and a 50% increase in systemwide sales to loyalty members, totaling $45 billion [5] Group 2: Business Model and Performance - McDonald's operates only about 5% of its stores, primarily generating revenue through royalties and rent from franchisees, which provides stability during economic downturns [6] - In 2024, McDonald's systemwide sales rose by just 1%, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 1%, indicating a challenging year [9] Group 3: Dividend and Shareholder Returns - McDonald's raised its dividend for the 48th consecutive year in 2024, positioning itself to become a Dividend King by 2026 [7] - The company has reduced its outstanding share count by over 25% in the last decade, more than doubled its dividend, and tripled its stock price [7] Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - McDonald's has a forward P/E ratio close to its five-year median, suggesting it may be slightly overvalued, but potential growth could justify this valuation [12] - The stock is considered a balanced buy for risk-averse investors, offering a solid source of passive income with a 2.2% yield [13] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Investors are attracted to McDonald's as a safe stock amid economic uncertainty and stock market volatility [14]

Coffee Industry - Coffee prices have reached record highs, with futures prices more than doubling over the past 12 months and surpassing $4 per pound for the first time last month [6] - A dry spell in Brazil has significantly impacted crop yields, contributing to the rising prices [6] - Coffee Labs Roasters signed a new purchase order at approximately $5 per bag, up from a previous deal of about $4 per bag [2] Egg Industry - The price of eggs in the U.S. has increased by 53% year over year, with a 15% spike from December to January [4] - The avian flu outbreak has led to the culling of millions of hens, exacerbating supply issues [5] - The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating potential antitrust practices in the egg industry [5] Consumer Behavior - Rising prices of coffee and eggs are causing consumers to change their purchasing habits, with many opting to skip breakfast or replace it with cheaper alternatives [9][10] - A survey indicated that consumer sentiment has turned negative for the first time since June 2024, with expectations of worsening inflation [7] Restaurant Industry - Dine Brands, the parent company of IHOP, has seen its stock decline over 13% this year, with a disappointing outlook for 2025 due to rising costs primarily driven by egg prices [11][12] - Waffle House and Denny's have implemented surcharges for menu items containing eggs, while McDonald's has not raised prices [13] - Restaurant stocks offering breakfast items have underperformed the market, with Denny's stock down over 55% and Cracker Barrel down 38% over the past year [14] Trade and Tariffs - Proposed tariffs on coffee could further increase prices, particularly for decaffeinated coffee that involves cross-border processing between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada [15][16] - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of these tariffs on decaf coffee, with industry experts seeking more clarity [17]