Restaurant Operations - For the year ended December 31, 2024, McDonald's operated 43,477 restaurants, with approximately 95% being franchised[15]. - The company reported that its revenues consist of sales from company-owned restaurants and fees from franchised restaurants, with a focus on stable and predictable revenue streams[20]. - The company opened over 2,100 new restaurants across the System[63]. - The company opened 2,116 restaurants and closed 461 in 2024, an increase in openings compared to 2023[128]. - As of year-end 2024, the total number of systemwide restaurants increased to 43,477, up from 41,822 in 2023, representing a growth of 3.9%[129]. Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues increased by 2% to $25.9 billion[63]. - Total revenues for 2024 reached $25,920 million, a 2% increase from $25,494 million in 2023[75]. - Net income for 2024 was $8,223 million, reflecting a 3% decrease from $8,469 million in 2023[75]. - Operating income for 2024 was $11.71 billion, a slight increase from $11.65 billion in 2023[80]. - The company incurred pre-tax charges of $290 million related to its Accelerating the Arches growth strategy in 2024[81]. - The effective income tax rate for 2024 was reported at 20.5%, up from 19.5% in 2023[119]. - The Company's total assets decreased by $965 million or 2% in 2024, mainly due to a reduction in cash and equivalents[140]. - Total debt at year-end 2024 was $38.4 billion, a decrease from $39.3 billion in 2023, with fixed-rate debt remaining at 96% of total debt[142]. - The Company returned approximately $7.7 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, with dividends declared per share increasing to $6.78 from $6.23 in 2023, a 8.8% increase[136][138]. Shareholder Returns - The quarterly cash dividend per share was increased by 6% to $1.77, totaling $7.7 billion returned to shareholders in 2024[63]. - The Company repurchased 10.1 million shares for $2.8 billion in 2024, compared to 11.1 million shares for $3.1 billion in 2023[81]. - The Company has paid dividends on common stock for 49 consecutive years through 2024 and has increased the dividend amount at least once every year[173]. - McDonald's cumulative total shareholder returns increased from $100 at December 31, 2019, to $165 at December 31, 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrials during the same period[171]. Strategic Initiatives - McDonald's aims to enhance its talent development through programs like Hamburger University, which provides training for employees and franchisees[40]. - The company focuses on three strategic outcome areas: Supporting Families, Times of Need, and Opportunity Employment[41]. - McDonald's has established four Impact Areas in its Purpose & Impact strategy: Our Planet, Food Quality & Sourcing, Jobs, Inclusion & Empowerment, and Community Connection[44]. - The company plans to open approximately 2,200 new restaurants globally in 2025, contributing to slightly over 4% new unit growth net of closures[71]. - The company aims to increase its 90-day active loyalty users to 250 million by the end of 2027, with annual Systemwide sales to loyalty members targeted at $45.0 billion[70]. Market and Competitive Environment - The company faces intense competition in the IEO segment and from various non-traditional competitors, which may impact business results[187]. - The company's ability to compete relies on product choice, quality, affordability, service, and location, with no assurance that current strategies will be effective[188]. - Supply chain interruptions and price volatility could adversely affect costs and revenues, influenced by various external factors[196]. - The franchise business model is heavily reliant on the financial success of franchisees, with potential risks if franchisee sales trends worsen[197][198]. - Labor challenges, including availability and cost, could negatively impact operations and customer satisfaction levels[201][202]. Operational Challenges - Food safety concerns, including past incidents, could adversely affect the company's brand and financial results[205]. - The company’s real estate operations are subject to various risks, including governmental regulations and market conditions, which could impact operating results[206][207]. - Increasing regulatory and legal complexity worldwide may adversely affect the company's operations and financial results[211]. Financial Metrics and Projections - In 2024, global comparable sales decreased by 0.1%[60]. - Operating margin decreased from 46% in 2023 to 45% in 2024[63]. - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 1% to $11.39[63]. - Cash provided by operations was $9.4 billion, a 2% decrease from the prior year[63]. - Free cash flow was $6.7 billion, an 8% decrease from the prior year[63]. - The company expects 2025 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range[71]. - The company expects free cash flow conversion rate to be in the low-to-mid 80% range for 2025[71]. - The company anticipates 2025 capital expenditures between $3.0 and $3.2 billion, primarily for new restaurant unit expansion[71].

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's has underperformed the broader market, particularly the S&P 500, over the last five years, indicating a stagnation in growth and investment appeal [2][6][10] Financial Performance - Full-year 2024 revenue was flat at $6.39 billion, slightly below the $6.44 billion estimate, while net income declined 1% to just under $2.02 billion, or $11.39 per share compared to $11.56 per share in 2023 [2][5] - Global comparable sales showed a decline of 1.5% in Q3 and 1% in Q2, reflecting broader weaknesses in sales performance [3][9] Strategic Initiatives - McDonald's introduced a $5 combo meal aimed at value-centric consumers, which has reportedly increased transaction numbers but raises concerns about overall ticket size [4][8] - The average check on $5 discount orders has exceeded $10, but the effectiveness of this strategy in driving overall sales remains uncertain [5][8] Market Position and Competition - J.P. Morgan analysts set a price target of $300 per share for McDonald's, suggesting limited upside potential from current pricing [6] - Analyst estimates predict earnings of $12.28 per share in 2025, resulting in a forward P/E ratio of 24.78, slightly below its historical average [7] - Competitors like Chipotle and Cava are experiencing double-digit revenue growth, positioning them as more attractive investment options compared to McDonald's [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's $5 meal package has significantly boosted same-store sales, and the introduction of the McValue menu is expected to continue this positive trend. As external conditions normalize, same-store performance in regions outside the U.S. is gradually recovering, with global same-store sales expected to return to positive growth in 2025, driving revenue recovery [4][5]. - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of $6.39 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of 0.3%. The operating profit was $2.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, while net profit was $2.02 billion, down 1.1% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, with a quarterly dividend of $1.77 per share and a total annual dividend payout of $4.9 billion, representing 3.5% of the total market capitalization of $221.1 billion [4][5]. - Same-store sales showed significant improvement in Q4 2024, with U.S. same-store sales down 1.4%, while international markets showed positive growth. Overall global same-store sales increased by 0.4% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company plans to continue its store expansion strategy, with a target of adding 2,200 new stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 45,277 stores by the end of 2025 [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of $25.92 billion, a year-over-year growth of 1.7%. The net profit was $8.22 billion, a decline of 2.9% year-over-year [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $27.26 billion, $28.84 billion, and $30.49 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 5.2%, 5.8%, and 5.7% [5][6]. - The projected net profits for the same years are $8.70 billion, $9.29 billion, and $9.95 billion, with growth rates of 5.8%, 6.8%, and 7.0% [5][6]. - The company maintains a healthy operating profit margin, projected to be between 45% and 50% for 2025 [4][5].

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 2 月 14 日收盘价（美元） | 308.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿美元） | 2211 | | 总股本（亿股） | 7.17 | 来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q3 业绩点评：Q3 美国同 店销售同比增速转正-2024.11.15 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q2 业绩点评：Q2 业绩低 于预期，低价套餐提振销售-2024.08.06 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 麦当劳(MCD.N) 2024Q4 同店表现改善明显，全球同店销售同比转正 投资要点： 请阅读 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that a specific dividend stock has more than doubled its dividend per share, which may surprise passive income investors [1] Company Analysis - The stock in question has shown significant growth in its dividend distribution, indicating strong financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] Market Implications - The increase in dividend per share could attract more investors looking for passive income opportunities, potentially driving up the stock price [1]

Core Insights - The 2024 Q4 earnings cycle is showing signs of slowing down, with most S&P 500 companies having reported positive earnings growth and favorable commentary [1] McDonald's (MCD) - MCD reported EPS that met consensus estimates but sales of $6.4 billion fell 0.3% year-over-year, with EPS down 4% year-over-year [3][4] - U.S. comparable sales decreased by 2% year-over-year, indicating consumer caution due to ongoing menu price increases [4] - Global comparable sales increased by 0.4% year-over-year, marking a positive shift after a series of negative surprises [5] Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) - Analysts expect CAKE to report an EPS of $0.92, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, with sales anticipated to grow by 4% year-over-year [6] - Comparable restaurant sales increased by 1.4% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations [7] - CEO David Everton highlighted market share capture and improvements in labor productivity and guest satisfaction [9] Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) - TXRH is projected to see a significant 53% EPS growth alongside a 21% increase in sales, although analyst revisions have remained stagnant [10] - The company reported an 8.5% year-over-year growth in comparable sales, with plans for further expansion through 2025 [13] - TXRH's strong momentum has led to a bullish outlook from analysts, contributing to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [13] Summary of Expectations - Both CAKE and TXRH are expected to report favorable comparable store sales, which will be crucial in assessing their growth [16]

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's is focusing on value meals in response to inflation and competition in the quick-service restaurant sector, aiming to recover from recent challenges and drive customer traffic [1][9][13]. Financial Performance - McDonald's Q4 results were mixed, with U.S. same-store sales declining by 1.4% due to an E.coli scare, but international markets performed better with a 4.1% increase in comparable-store sales [4][5][6]. - Overall global same-store sales rose by 0.4%, surpassing analyst expectations of a 1% decline, while total revenue was $6.39 billion, slightly below the $6.44 billion consensus [6]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 4% to $2.83, meeting analyst expectations [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest between $3 billion and $3.2 billion in new unit development, aiming to open approximately 2,200 restaurants by 2025, with a significant focus on China [7]. - McDonald's is launching the McValue platform in January and enhancing value programs internationally, which have shown positive customer reception [9][13]. - The company is also focusing on digital orders and expanding its loyalty program, which had 175 million active members by the end of 2024 [14]. Market Positioning - McDonald's has historically gained market share during pricing wars, and its current strategy of offering value meals is expected to attract customers and drive additional purchases [13]. - The company anticipates a full sales recovery from the E.coli incidents by Q2 and expects improved margins compared to 2024 levels [11]. Long-term Outlook - McDonald's is viewed as a solid long-term investment due to its iconic brand, growth potential in store count, and strategies to enhance customer engagement through digital and loyalty initiatives [15].

Group 1 - McDonald's Corporation is expected to benefit from the recovery following the E. coli incident and the traction gained by its recently launched McValue platform [1] - International sales are anticipated to improve due to the easing of boycotts in the Middle East after recent peace developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Q4 2024 earnings report showed mixed results, with adjusted EPS meeting expectations but net revenues falling short, yet stock rose due to strong international sales and positive sentiment [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 2024 was $2.83, meeting analysts' expectations [1] - Quarterly net revenues were $6.388 billion, below the consensus estimate of $6.477 billion [1] - Stock closed at $307.60 on February 12, 2024, a decline of 0.84% from the previous close [3] - Market capitalization stands at $220.43 billion [3] Stock Outlook - Analysts set a 12-month average price target of $327.96, indicating a potential upside of 6.62% from the last closing price [4] - Price target range is from $290 to $360, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" [4] Strategic Initiatives - CEO Chris Kempczinski highlighted the "Accelerating the Arches" strategy focusing on value offerings, menu innovation, and culturally relevant marketing [2] - The company is targeting low-income consumers through initiatives like the McValue menu, which has been positively received [5] Market Sentiment - Strategists maintain a bullish sentiment on McDonald's growth prospects, citing strong performance in the value segment and expansion plans as key drivers [5] - Despite concerns about potential challenges in the US market and cash flow issues, the consensus remains positive for continued sales growth and market share expansion [8]

Group 1 - McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) stock has increased approximately 15% over the past six months, driven by optimism regarding a recovery in business growth [1] - The technical indicators for McDonald's stock are currently strong, suggesting potential for continued performance improvement [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality technical analysis and the commitment to excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect in investment research [1]