Group 1: Stock Performance - McDonald's closed at $306.92, reflecting a +1.09% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.08% [1] - Over the past month, McDonald's shares have decreased by 0.4%, which is better than the Retail-Wholesale sector's decline of 11.45% and the S&P 500's drop of 8.26% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect McDonald's to report earnings of $2.68 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 0.74% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $6.13 billion, down 0.55% from the same quarter last year [2] Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $12.23 per share and revenue at $26.37 billion, representing increases of +4.35% and +1.74% respectively from the prior year [3] Group 4: Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for McDonald's are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [4] Group 5: Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows McDonald's currently holds a rank of 3 (Hold) [6] - Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for McDonald's has decreased by 0.23% [6] Group 6: Valuation Metrics - McDonald's has a Forward P/E ratio of 24.83, which is higher than the industry average of 23.14 [7] - The PEG ratio for McDonald's is 3.11, compared to the Retail - Restaurants industry's average PEG ratio of 2.08 [7] Group 7: Industry Ranking - The Retail - Restaurants industry, which includes McDonald's, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 142, placing it in the bottom 44% of over 250 industries [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment potential of McDonald's (MCD) shares, highlighting a beneficial long position held by the analyst [1]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a personal opinion on McDonald's stock performance, indicating a positive outlook based on current market conditions [1]. - The article emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results, suggesting a cautious approach to investment decisions [2].

Company Insights - Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) is offering holiday-themed products such as Irish Soda Bread, Irish Butter, and Corned Beef for St. Patrick's Day, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 24.3% for this year and a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [10][11] - Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is a global manufacturer of beer, with core brands including Blue Moon and Coors Light, and has an estimated earnings growth rate of 6.5% for this year, holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [11][12] - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has reintroduced the Shamrock Shake and Oreo Shamrock McFlurry for the holiday, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 4.4% for this year and a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [13][14] - Jack in the Box (JACK) is promoting its Lucky Mint Trio drinks for St. Patrick's Day and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 [15] - Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR), formed from the merger of Tim Hortons and Burger King, is participating in the celebrations by offering free onion rings to Royal Perks members, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 11.4% for this year and a Zacks Rank 3 [16][17] Industry Trends - St. Patrick's Day is one of the largest beer-drinking holidays in the U.S., with 38.7 million pints of Guinness expected to be consumed, leading to an expenditure of $421.6 million [3] - Consumers are projected to spend $7 billion on St. Patrick's Day this year, a slight decline from $7.2 billion last year, with an average spend of $44 per person [6] - 33% of U.S. consumers plan to celebrate St. Patrick's Day, with 92% intending to purchase items for the holiday, primarily food (56%) and alcoholic beverages (46%) [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Several Wall Street companies have faced consumer backlash over their positions on controversial global issues, leading to boycotts that affected sales and stock prices. However, in 2025, some of these firms are showing signs of recovery, presenting potential investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) - Starbucks experienced a backlash due to its workers' union supporting Palestine amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, resulting in a boycott from pro-Palestinian activists [3][4]. - In 2024, Starbucks' sales declined by 2% in North America and 7% internationally, leading to the closure of Middle Eastern outlets and the loss of over 2,000 jobs [4]. - In 2025, Starbucks' shares have increased by over 7% year-to-date, supported by new product launches and a $3 million pledge for Gaza relief, with the stock trading at $98.11 [4]. - The company's P/E ratio is 36.51, indicating it is fairly overvalued, but expected earnings growth of 47% could justify this valuation [5][6]. - For the last quarter, Starbucks reported $9.4 billion in revenue, slightly exceeding expectations, but net income fell to $780.8 million from $1.02 billion a year ago, with same-store sales down 4% [6]. Group 2: McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) - McDonald's faced controversy when its Israeli franchisee provided free meals to Israeli soldiers, leading to a boycott from pro-Palestinian advocates, particularly in Muslim-majority regions [8]. - The company missed its first quarterly sales target in four years in 2024, with growth in the Middle East, China, and India at just 0.7%, significantly below the expected 5.5% [9]. - As of the last trading session, McDonald's stock was valued at $299.83, with a year-to-date increase of 3.4% [10]. - The company is addressing challenges by expanding value menus, launching new products, and rebuilding consumer confidence [11]. - McDonald's has 150 million loyalty members and ongoing automation efforts that support long-term growth, alongside a 2.4% dividend yield and a forward P/E ratio of 25.74, indicating strong fundamentals [13].

Core Points - The S. Mark Taper Foundation has donated $1.250 million to name the Dining Room at the Westside Los Angeles Ronald McDonald House, which will serve as a central gathering space for families [1] - The new Ronald McDonald House will provide essential support for families dealing with children's catastrophic illnesses, featuring 33 guest rooms and various facilities [2] - The importance of keeping families close to their children during treatment is emphasized by medical professionals, highlighting the benefits of the Ronald McDonald House [3] Summary by Sections Donation and Purpose - The S. Mark Taper Foundation's donation aims to enhance the communal experience at the Ronald McDonald House, creating a space for meals, celebrations, and support [1] Facilities and Services - The Westside Los Angeles Ronald McDonald House will include 33 guest rooms, community kitchens, laundry facilities, a business center, library, lounges, and outdoor play areas, catering to families with seriously ill children [2] Community Impact - Ronald McDonald House Charities of Southern California operates multiple houses and programs, including a cost-free camp for children with cancer, demonstrating a commitment to supporting families in need [4]

Valuation and Performance - McDonald's current valuation is attractive, trading at a discount compared to Retail-Restaurant industry peers, with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 24.51X, below the industry average of 27.05X and the broader Retail-Wholesale sector's 24.95X [1] - In the past three months, McDonald's stock gained 3.1%, underperforming the sector's 5.4% growth but surpassing the industry's 1.4% growth and the S&P 500 index's 0.4% decline [4] Impact of E. coli Outbreak - The E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder burgers led to 10 hospitalizations and one fatality, significantly impacting consumer confidence [6][8] - U.S. comparable sales in Q4 2024 declined by 1.4%, contrasting with a 4.3% growth in the same quarter the previous year, while global comp sales increased by only 0.4% compared to a 3.4% rise in the year-ago quarter [8] Strategic Initiatives and Recovery - McDonald's is focusing on food safety and has taken prompt action by removing the implicated supplier from its supply chain, which is expected to help regain consumer trust [7][14] - The company anticipates recovering from the negative impacts of the outbreak by Q2 2025, driven by strategic initiatives and a focus on customer engagement [14][19] Growth Prospects - Despite inflationary pressures, McDonald's earnings estimate for 2025 indicates a 4.4% year-over-year growth, reflecting a positive sentiment among investors [10] - The launch of the McValue platform and the loyalty program, which has over 170 million active users, is expected to enhance customer engagement and drive sales growth [15][19] Market Position and Competitive Edge - McDonald's is the world's largest fast-food chain, with a presence in over 100 countries, benefiting from strong brand recognition and successful product innovation [13] - The company operates more than 27,000 drive-thru locations globally, which are a primary sales driver, and is enhancing the delivery experience through digital initiatives [16][17]

Restaurant Operations - For the year ended December 31, 2024, McDonald's operated 43,477 restaurants, with approximately 95% being franchised[15]. - The company reported that its revenues consist of sales from company-owned restaurants and fees from franchised restaurants, with a focus on stable and predictable revenue streams[20]. - The company opened over 2,100 new restaurants across the System[63]. - The company opened 2,116 restaurants and closed 461 in 2024, an increase in openings compared to 2023[128]. - As of year-end 2024, the total number of systemwide restaurants increased to 43,477, up from 41,822 in 2023, representing a growth of 3.9%[129]. Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues increased by 2% to $25.9 billion[63]. - Total revenues for 2024 reached $25,920 million, a 2% increase from $25,494 million in 2023[75]. - Net income for 2024 was $8,223 million, reflecting a 3% decrease from $8,469 million in 2023[75]. - Operating income for 2024 was $11.71 billion, a slight increase from $11.65 billion in 2023[80]. - The company incurred pre-tax charges of $290 million related to its Accelerating the Arches growth strategy in 2024[81]. - The effective income tax rate for 2024 was reported at 20.5%, up from 19.5% in 2023[119]. - The Company's total assets decreased by $965 million or 2% in 2024, mainly due to a reduction in cash and equivalents[140]. - Total debt at year-end 2024 was $38.4 billion, a decrease from $39.3 billion in 2023, with fixed-rate debt remaining at 96% of total debt[142]. - The Company returned approximately $7.7 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, with dividends declared per share increasing to $6.78 from $6.23 in 2023, a 8.8% increase[136][138]. Shareholder Returns - The quarterly cash dividend per share was increased by 6% to $1.77, totaling $7.7 billion returned to shareholders in 2024[63]. - The Company repurchased 10.1 million shares for $2.8 billion in 2024, compared to 11.1 million shares for $3.1 billion in 2023[81]. - The Company has paid dividends on common stock for 49 consecutive years through 2024 and has increased the dividend amount at least once every year[173]. - McDonald's cumulative total shareholder returns increased from $100 at December 31, 2019, to $165 at December 31, 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrials during the same period[171]. Strategic Initiatives - McDonald's aims to enhance its talent development through programs like Hamburger University, which provides training for employees and franchisees[40]. - The company focuses on three strategic outcome areas: Supporting Families, Times of Need, and Opportunity Employment[41]. - McDonald's has established four Impact Areas in its Purpose & Impact strategy: Our Planet, Food Quality & Sourcing, Jobs, Inclusion & Empowerment, and Community Connection[44]. - The company plans to open approximately 2,200 new restaurants globally in 2025, contributing to slightly over 4% new unit growth net of closures[71]. - The company aims to increase its 90-day active loyalty users to 250 million by the end of 2027, with annual Systemwide sales to loyalty members targeted at $45.0 billion[70]. Market and Competitive Environment - The company faces intense competition in the IEO segment and from various non-traditional competitors, which may impact business results[187]. - The company's ability to compete relies on product choice, quality, affordability, service, and location, with no assurance that current strategies will be effective[188]. - Supply chain interruptions and price volatility could adversely affect costs and revenues, influenced by various external factors[196]. - The franchise business model is heavily reliant on the financial success of franchisees, with potential risks if franchisee sales trends worsen[197][198]. - Labor challenges, including availability and cost, could negatively impact operations and customer satisfaction levels[201][202]. Operational Challenges - Food safety concerns, including past incidents, could adversely affect the company's brand and financial results[205]. - The company’s real estate operations are subject to various risks, including governmental regulations and market conditions, which could impact operating results[206][207]. - Increasing regulatory and legal complexity worldwide may adversely affect the company's operations and financial results[211]. Financial Metrics and Projections - In 2024, global comparable sales decreased by 0.1%[60]. - Operating margin decreased from 46% in 2023 to 45% in 2024[63]. - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 1% to $11.39[63]. - Cash provided by operations was $9.4 billion, a 2% decrease from the prior year[63]. - Free cash flow was $6.7 billion, an 8% decrease from the prior year[63]. - The company expects 2025 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range[71]. - The company expects free cash flow conversion rate to be in the low-to-mid 80% range for 2025[71]. - The company anticipates 2025 capital expenditures between $3.0 and $3.2 billion, primarily for new restaurant unit expansion[71].

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's has underperformed the broader market, particularly the S&P 500, over the last five years, indicating a stagnation in growth and investment appeal [2][6][10] Financial Performance - Full-year 2024 revenue was flat at $6.39 billion, slightly below the $6.44 billion estimate, while net income declined 1% to just under $2.02 billion, or $11.39 per share compared to $11.56 per share in 2023 [2][5] - Global comparable sales showed a decline of 1.5% in Q3 and 1% in Q2, reflecting broader weaknesses in sales performance [3][9] Strategic Initiatives - McDonald's introduced a $5 combo meal aimed at value-centric consumers, which has reportedly increased transaction numbers but raises concerns about overall ticket size [4][8] - The average check on $5 discount orders has exceeded $10, but the effectiveness of this strategy in driving overall sales remains uncertain [5][8] Market Position and Competition - J.P. Morgan analysts set a price target of $300 per share for McDonald's, suggesting limited upside potential from current pricing [6] - Analyst estimates predict earnings of $12.28 per share in 2025, resulting in a forward P/E ratio of 24.78, slightly below its historical average [7] - Competitors like Chipotle and Cava are experiencing double-digit revenue growth, positioning them as more attractive investment options compared to McDonald's [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's $5 meal package has significantly boosted same-store sales, and the introduction of the McValue menu is expected to continue this positive trend. As external conditions normalize, same-store performance in regions outside the U.S. is gradually recovering, with global same-store sales expected to return to positive growth in 2025, driving revenue recovery [4][5]. - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of $6.39 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of 0.3%. The operating profit was $2.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, while net profit was $2.02 billion, down 1.1% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, with a quarterly dividend of $1.77 per share and a total annual dividend payout of $4.9 billion, representing 3.5% of the total market capitalization of $221.1 billion [4][5]. - Same-store sales showed significant improvement in Q4 2024, with U.S. same-store sales down 1.4%, while international markets showed positive growth. Overall global same-store sales increased by 0.4% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company plans to continue its store expansion strategy, with a target of adding 2,200 new stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 45,277 stores by the end of 2025 [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of $25.92 billion, a year-over-year growth of 1.7%. The net profit was $8.22 billion, a decline of 2.9% year-over-year [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $27.26 billion, $28.84 billion, and $30.49 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 5.2%, 5.8%, and 5.7% [5][6]. - The projected net profits for the same years are $8.70 billion, $9.29 billion, and $9.95 billion, with growth rates of 5.8%, 6.8%, and 7.0% [5][6]. - The company maintains a healthy operating profit margin, projected to be between 45% and 50% for 2025 [4][5].

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 2 月 14 日收盘价（美元） | 308.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿美元） | 2211 | | 总股本（亿股） | 7.17 | 来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q3 业绩点评：Q3 美国同 店销售同比增速转正-2024.11.15 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q2 业绩点评：Q2 业绩低 于预期，低价套餐提振销售-2024.08.06 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 麦当劳(MCD.N) 2024Q4 同店表现改善明显，全球同店销售同比转正 投资要点： 请阅读 ...