Core Insights - The company, Mondelez International, has established itself as the first "end-to-end lighthouse factory" in the global snack and biscuit industry, joining the World Economic Forum's global "lighthouse factory" network in 2023 [1] - The Suzhou factory has five fully automated production lines with an annual production capacity exceeding 100,000 tons, producing popular brands such as Oreo, Chips Ahoy, and others [1] - The company's export value increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first eleven months of the year, indicating strong demand in overseas markets [1] Group 1 - The Suzhou factory is recognized for its advanced smart manufacturing capabilities, representing the pinnacle of modern factory technology [1] - Mondelez has been investing heavily in digital transformation to optimize quality across the entire production process and enhance brand value [1] - The company has transitioned from a linear supply chain to an intelligent supply ecosystem through smart logistics [1] Group 2 - The "Hui Guan Tong" smart customs declaration platform supports efficient customs clearance for the lighthouse factory, enhancing operational efficiency [2] - The customs authority has introduced a "cloud issuance" function for inspection and quarantine certificates, allowing for rapid processing of documentation [2] - The Suzhou Industrial Park Customs is focused on continuously upgrading the "Hui Guan Tong" platform to improve customs efficiency and support companies in expanding their overseas markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Mondelēz International, Inc. has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on January 14, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025 [1] Company Overview - Mondelēz International operates in over 150 countries, focusing on empowering people to snack right [2] - The company reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion for the year 2024 [2] - Mondelēz International features a portfolio of iconic brands including Oreo, Ritz, LU, Clif Bar, Tate's Bake Shop, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone [2] - The company is recognized as a member of the Dow Jones Best-in-Class North America and World Indices, previously known as the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices [2]

Core Insights - During market turbulence, investors often seek dividend-yielding stocks, which typically have high free cash flows and offer substantial dividends [1] Group 1: Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG) - Dividend Yield: 3.03% [6] - Analyst Ratings: - Raymond James analyst Olivia Tong maintained an Outperform rating, reducing the price target from $185 to $175 [6] - Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman maintained an Equal-Weight rating, cutting the price target from $164 to $153 [6] - Recent Performance: Reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.99, a 3% increase year over year, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.90 [6] Group 2: PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP) - Dividend Yield: 3.93% [6] - Analyst Ratings: - Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery maintained an Overweight rating, raising the price target from $161 to $172 [6] - Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman maintained an Equal-Weight rating, slashing the price target from $144 to $140 [6] - Recent Developments: Announced operational changes supported by activist investor Elliott Investment Management, including a supply chain review and streamlined product lineup [6] Group 3: Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ:MDLZ) - Dividend Yield: 3.70% [6] - Analyst Ratings: - Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery maintained a Neutral rating, cutting the price target from $63 to $62 [6] - JP Morgan analyst Ken Goldman maintained an Overweight rating, reducing the price target from $75 to $74 [6] - Recent Performance: Posted strong third-quarter earnings but lowered FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance [6]

Core Insights - During market turbulence, investors often seek dividend-yielding stocks, which typically have high free cash flows and offer substantial dividends [1] Group 1: Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG) - Dividend Yield: 3.03% [6] - Analyst Ratings: - Raymond James analyst Olivia Tong maintained an Outperform rating, reducing the price target from $185 to $175 [6] - Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman maintained an Equal-Weight rating, cutting the price target from $164 to $153 [6] - Recent Performance: Reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.99, a 3% increase year over year, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.90 [6] Group 2: PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP) - Dividend Yield: 3.93% [6] - Analyst Ratings: - Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery maintained an Overweight rating, raising the price target from $161 to $172 [6] - Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman maintained an Equal-Weight rating, slashing the price target from $144 to $140 [6] - Recent Developments: Announced operational changes supported by activist investor Elliott Investment Management, including a supply chain review and streamlined product lineup [6] Group 3: Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ:MDLZ) - Dividend Yield: 3.70% [6] - Analyst Ratings: - Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery maintained a Neutral rating, cutting the price target from $63 to $62 [6] - JP Morgan analyst Ken Goldman maintained an Overweight rating, reducing the price target from $75 to $74 [6] - Recent Performance: Posted strong third-quarter earnings but lowered FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance [6]

Group 1 - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is currently trading at its lowest levels in over five years due to significant cocoa disruptions caused by tariffs [1] - The company has faced challenges in its supply chain, particularly related to cocoa, which is critical for its product offerings [1] Group 2 - The analyst has extensive experience in researching over 1000 companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology, which informs their insights on investment opportunities [1] - The focus of the analysis is on value investing, with a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, as well as consumer discretionary and staples [1]

Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is currently trading at its lowest levels in over five years due to significant disruptions in cocoa supply caused by tariffs and other factors [1] Company Summary - The company has faced challenges related to cocoa supply disruptions, which have impacted its stock performance [1] Industry Context - The broader context includes the impact of tariffs on commodity supplies, particularly cocoa, which is crucial for companies like Mondelez that rely heavily on chocolate production [1]

Core Insights - Watches of Switzerland (WOSGF) operates in the luxury watch and jewellery retail sector, facing challenges related to tariffs and market conditions [1] Company Overview - WOSGF is a family of retailers specializing in luxury watches and jewellery [1] - The company has been analyzed in the context of market fears regarding tariffs [1] Investment Approach - The investment philosophy emphasizes long-term value investing, focusing on undervalued quality businesses with strong fundamentals [1] - The approach is influenced by renowned investor Warren Buffett, prioritizing companies with solid business models and sustainable growth [1]

Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. has successfully passed severe cost inflation onto customers, demonstrating its competitive advantage in the market [1] Valuation Methods - Various methods exist for sell-side analysts to determine a company's fair value, including DCF, multiples approach, and reverse valuation [1] - The DCF method requires precise assumptions, which can introduce bias, while the multiples approach assumes peer companies are fairly priced, a notion often unsupported by historical data [1] - Reverse valuation starts from the market price and discount rate, revealing the free cash flow assumptions embedded in the price, providing a straightforward reality check [1] Free Cash Flow Analysis - A Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to assess what truly belongs to shareholders, calculated as Earnings + Amortization – CAPEX – average acquisition cost = FCFE [1] - The analysis disregards working capital and debt changes, focusing on core business metrics: earnings, amortization, and investments [1] Forecasting Methodology - The H-model is applied for forecasts, featuring a 10-year two-stage growth fade with terminal growth equal to the risk-free rate, represented by the 10-year government bond yield [1] - All cash flows are discounted using the cost of equity, calculated as RFR × beta + 5% ERP, resulting in a clear picture of the business's true worth [1]

Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. has successfully passed severe cost inflation onto customers, demonstrating its competitive advantage in the market [1] Valuation Methods - Various methods exist for sell-side analysts to determine a company's fair value, including DCF, multiples approach, and reverse valuation [1] - The DCF method requires precise assumptions, which can introduce bias, while the multiples approach assumes peer companies are fairly priced, a notion often unsupported by historical data [1] - Reverse valuation starts from market price and discount rate, revealing the free cash flow assumptions embedded in the price, providing a direct reality check [1] Free Cash Flow Analysis - A Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to assess what truly belongs to shareholders, calculated as Earnings + Amortization – CAPEX – average acquisition cost = FCFE [1] - The analysis disregards working capital and debt changes, focusing on core business metrics: earnings, amortization, and investments [1] Forecasting Approach - The H-model is applied for forecasts, featuring a 10-year two-stage growth fade with terminal growth equal to the risk-free rate, represented by the 10-year government bond yield [1] - All cash flows are discounted using the cost of equity, calculated as RFR × beta + 5% ERP, resulting in a clear picture of the business's true worth [1]

Core Thesis - Mondelez International, Inc. is experiencing share-price pressure despite strong Q3 results due to rising cocoa prices and elevated transportation costs impacting margins, alongside weakened American consumer purchasing power affecting near-term demand [2][4] Financial Performance - Mondelez reported a modest revenue growth of 5.86% year-over-year, surpassing inflation, but earnings fell by over 18% due to margin pressures [4] - Operating margins declined from 12.5% to 7.6%, and the return on invested capital (ROIC) is currently at 6.2%, trailing the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.67% [4] - Analysts project a one-year price target of $62, indicating approximately 11% upside from the current share price of $56.08 [4] Strategic Positioning - The company’s broad portfolio, global scale, and category leadership position it for resilient long-term performance, with dominant segments in biscuits and chocolate [3] - Key brands like Oreo and Cadbury drive brand loyalty, while emerging markets and premium snack offerings provide additional growth opportunities [3] - Strategic initiatives include investments in core brands, bolt-on acquisitions, supply chain efficiencies, e-commerce expansion, and sustainability programs like Cocoa Life [3] Market Outlook - Despite short-term headwinds from cocoa volatility, logistics costs, and regulatory scrutiny, Mondelez's focus on emerging markets and premium products positions it to withstand macroeconomic pressures [5] - The company presents a conservative investment opportunity with moderate upside, where near-term market reactions may obscure long-term fundamentals and global snack leadership [5][6]