香港市场长期有望贡献收入增量，提高市场对其后续国际化预期。我们测算24 年农夫山泉在中国内地 即饮软饮市场的市占率约12%，产品、品牌与渠道力突出。根据灼识咨询，预计到2028 年香港即饮软 饮市场总零售额约216 亿元。我们认为凭借在产品与品牌力方面的优势，长期视角下，农夫山泉在香港 的市占率有望逐步提升、在收入端贡献增量。此前公司曾表态将以成为国际化一流企业为目标，依托中 国供应链优势，将健康的饮用水产品推向全世界，并计划将茶饮料进军发达国家市场。此次香港市场的 拓展增强了其国际化能力的置信度，若后续东方树叶无糖茶大单品等众多明星产品能打开海外市场，将 提高市场对其远期的营收空间预期。 机构：东方证券 研究员：叶书怀/燕斯娴/李雪君 事件：25 年6 月，农夫山泉宣布正式进军香港市场。公司旗下的 "农夫山泉"天然饮用水、"东方树 叶"无糖茶饮、"茶π"果味茶系列、"尖叫"运动饮品、及"水溶C100"、"NFC"和"17.5°"果汁类饮品均将在 年内进驻香港。其中，东方树叶香港区代言人为知名艺人佘诗曼。 合作打开香港本土渠道，香港拓展进度超预期。本次香港渠道拓展的进程快于市场此前预期。目前由建 华集团担任公 ...

合作进军香港软饮市场，拓展区域贡献增 量 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 42667.22 | 42895.99 | 51095.56 | 59457.43 | 66556.46 | | 同比增长 (%) | 28.36% | 0.54% | 19.11% | 16.37% | 11.94% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 13846.75 | 13658.92 | 16904.94 | 19948.49 | 22537.61 | | 同比增长 (%) | 48.23% | -1.36% | 23.76% | 18.00% | 12.98% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 12079.50 | 12123.30 | 14505.51 | 16897.80 | 18858.36 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.19% | 0.36% | 19.65% | 16.49% | 11.60% | | 每股收益（元） | ...

户外温度持续上升，商超店、茶饮店内的冰杯产品也伴随暑气的到来，卖得愈发火热。 据社交平台网友晒贴，近日农夫山泉旗下食用冰新品上架山姆会员商店。为抢占"冰杯经济"，今夏农夫 山泉产品规格已扩展至2kg，瞄准"在家即享"、"户外聚餐"、"运动之后"场景所需。 2kg大容量，随之对应产品两位数的价格。山姆会员商店小程序显示，该款农夫山泉纯透食用冰售价 22.8元/袋。不过，产品详情页也特别标注，以每份冷饮150克冰计，一袋农夫山泉纯透食用冰足以支撑 13杯冷饮的制作。按此推算，用户DIY每杯冷饮时，投入在农夫山泉食用冰方面的成本折合约1.7元。 尽管相较于家庭自制冰块存在一定溢价，但也有用户在社交平台反馈称，产品的耐融性等是其购买理由 之一。"相比流水冰工艺冰块，相同条件下融化速度降低约20%。"山姆小程序也对该产品性能介绍道。 在消费动机观察中，上述报告也提到，如今的消费者购买冰品冰饮，除了满足功能性需求，也追求情感 共鸣，共同探索新奇产品的社交分享便是冰杯消费的驱动因素之一。 诚然，日常DIY也促进冰杯反哺与"冰杯+"捆绑组成的"cp"另一半之销量。尼尔森IQ联合饿了么共同发 布的《2024夏季即时零售冰品酒饮 ...

Core Insights - The launch of bagged ice cubes by Sam's Club, sourced from Nongfu Spring, has sparked significant consumer interest, leading to shortages despite some price complaints [2][3] - The ice cup market has seen substantial growth, with sales increasing by 30% year-on-year since June, and a 300% growth in sales over the past two years in first-tier cities [3][4] - Major players in the ice market include Nongfu Spring, Yili, Mengniu, and various convenience store chains, indicating a competitive landscape [5][6] Product Overview - Sam's Club's new 2 kg bagged ice cubes are priced at 22.8 yuan, utilizing water from Qiandao Lake and a slow freezing process to enhance melting resistance [2] - Ice cups, a popular form of packaged ice, are often sold in convenience stores and supermarkets, providing convenience and hygiene compared to homemade ice [2][3] Market Dynamics - The entry of major companies into the ice market is expanding its potential, with various brands adopting different strategies, including self-production and outsourcing [5][6] - The cost structure of ice cups is heavily influenced by packaging and cold chain logistics, with transportation costs significantly impacting profitability [9][11] Consumer Behavior - Consumer confusion regarding the pricing of ice cups persists, as the cost of ice appears disproportionately high compared to the raw material (water) [7][8] - The trend of ice consumption is growing, particularly in urban areas, with significant increases in sales of ice cups and related products [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The ice market is characterized by a mix of established players and new entrants, with many companies formed in the last five years, indicating a rapidly evolving industry [14] - Companies like Nongfu Spring leverage their existing distribution channels to enhance their market presence in the ice segment [11][12] Future Outlook - The ice market is expected to continue growing, with potential for ice to become a staple product similar to drinking water, driven by changing consumer habits [13][14] - Companies are adapting to market demands by expanding product lines and exploring new consumer segments, indicating a proactive approach to competition [14]

近日，农夫山泉在山姆会员商店上新了一款"纯透食用冰"，2kg规格售价22.8元。产品一出，在社交平台引起热议，甚至一度引发抢购，出现缺货、售罄的 情况。从价格来说，2kg售价22.8元不算便宜，换算成同等规格的农夫山泉饮用天然水，550ml规格1.42元/瓶，食用冰的价格是饮用天然水的4倍还多。即使 与市面上同类产品比，农夫山泉食用冰的价格也比较高，如小象食用冰800g规格售价6.45元/袋、好淼食用冰500g规格售价4.9元/袋。 2kg规格22.8元 "没想到买冰还得用抢，幸好下单及时，第二天看到已经缺货了。"近日，山姆会员商店的冷柜里，一袋袋农夫山泉"纯透食用冰"正被消费者蹲点抢购，广东 的消费者钟先生就是其中之一。 "纯透食用冰"2kg规格22.8元的价格，对大多数人来说不便宜，毕竟冰块在自家冰箱里也可以制作，或者从现制茶饮店里买，660ml规格也就1元/杯。农夫山 泉给"纯透食用冰"打上了水源地的标签"源自千岛湖天然水源"，并强调与家庭自制不同的"24—32小时超低速缓慢冻结工艺""相比流水冰工艺冰块，相同条 件下融化速度降低约20%"，吸引了不少有长期用冰需求的消费者。 一位不愿具名的业内分析人士 ...

June 12, 2025 01:24 PM GMT Nongfu Spring Co Ltd | Asia Pacific China Broader Consumption Trip Takeaways Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633.HK, 9633 HK) China/Hong Kong Consumer | China | Stock Rating | | | Equal-weight | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industry View | | | In-Line | | | Price target | | | HK$33.00 | | | Up/downside to price target (%) | | | (15) | | | Shr price, close (Jun 12, 2025) | | | HK$38.65 | | | 52-Week Range | | | HK$41.30-23.55 | | | Shrs out, basic, per-end (12/25e) (mn) | | | 11,246 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangtian Technology's reliance on major clients, particularly Nongfu Spring, has raised concerns about its growth sustainability and IPO prospects, as recent financial performance shows signs of decline despite previous growth [2][6][7] Company Overview - Jiangtian Technology specializes in the research, production, and sales of label printing products, including film and paper-based self-adhesive labels, widely used in daily consumer sectors such as beverages, personal care, and food [6] - The company has experienced revenue growth from 347 million yuan in 2021 to 538 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.47%, and net profit growth from 61 million yuan to 102 million yuan, with a CAGR of 18.69% [6] Recent Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Jiangtian Technology reported revenue of 134 million yuan, a slight increase of 2.12% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 9.66% to 26 million yuan, marking the first negative growth in five years [6] - The company's heavy dependence on major clients has begun to show risks, particularly as Nongfu Spring's revenue growth slowed to 0.54% in 2024, the lowest in five years [7] Challenges and Risks - Jiangtian Technology faces challenges such as reduced order amounts from major clients like Yili Group and declining prices for core products, which may impact overall performance [7] - The company is also dealing with internal control risks related to shareholding structures and related party transactions, as well as insufficient pricing power for its products, which could hinder its IPO process [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nongfu Spring's CEO, Zhong Shanshan, stated that while the company does not oppose outsourcing, all of its products are currently not suitable for outsourcing due to high dependency on water sources and a highly customized production system [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the previous year, Nongfu Spring reported revenue of 42.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company's packaged drinking water revenue decreased by 21.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting its market share and brand image [3][8]. - The gross profit for 2024 was 24.916 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% from 25.407 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin decline from 59.5% to 58.1% [8]. Market Position - Despite challenges, Nongfu Spring maintained its position as the market leader in China's packaged drinking water sector, with a market share that experienced a three-month decline due to organized online attacks [8]. - The tea beverage segment, represented by products like "Oriental Leaf," generated revenue of 16.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, accounting for 39% of total revenue [7][8]. Production and Supply Chain - The company has invested in 14 major water sources and over 30 advanced production bases, emphasizing a high-cost but high-quality and non-replicable production model [4][5]. - Recent projects include significant investments in water source projects, such as 5 billion yuan in the Jiande project and 1.35 billion yuan in the Qingcheng Mountain project [5]. Future Outlook - Zhong Shanshan expressed interest in entering the health water market but noted that no company currently produces authentic Chinese health water [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent outsourcing of Wahaha's purified water production to Jinmailang has sparked significant discussion in the beverage industry, particularly regarding the feasibility and implications of contract manufacturing in the drinking water sector [1][4]. Group 1: Outsourcing in the Beverage Industry - Contract manufacturing is common in the beverage industry, especially for purified water products, with companies like Jinmailang providing services to various brands due to their advanced equipment and production efficiency [6][7]. - Wahaha confirmed its outsourcing relationship with Jinmailang but has since terminated it after discovering quality control issues, indicating a shift back to self-production [7][8]. - In contrast, Nongfu Spring's chairman stated that all of their products cannot be outsourced due to the unique requirements of their production system and reliance on specific water sources [4][5]. Group 2: Differences in Water Production - The production processes for mineral water, purified water, and natural water differ significantly, with mineral water requiring complex certification and production near water sources, making outsourcing impractical [8]. - Purified water can be produced using municipal water sources, allowing for more flexibility in factory locations, which is why outsourcing is more prevalent in this category [8]. - Nongfu Spring's natural water production involves stringent standards and processes that complicate the possibility of outsourcing, as they emphasize direct sourcing and control over production [8].

Core Insights - The beverage distribution industry is facing significant challenges, with distributors caught between brand pressures and market demands, leading to reduced profit margins and increased financial strain [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High-margin products are experiencing shrinking profits while costs are escalating, including rising storage rents and doubled wages for truck drivers [3] - E-commerce platforms and supermarkets are bypassing distributors, leading to price discrepancies where retail prices are lower than wholesale prices, creating market chaos [3][5] - The fragmentation of distribution channels is complicating the situation for traditional distributors, as new sales models like community group buying and instant retail are gaining traction [5] Group 2: Product Trends - Brands are aggressively launching new products in the electrolyte water segment, with companies like Unification and Nongfu Spring introducing innovative flavors and formulations to meet consumer demand [7][9] - The functional beverage market is also heating up, with brands updating their offerings to enhance value propositions, such as larger packaging and simplified purchasing processes [9][11] Group 3: Consumer Preferences - The demand for electrolyte water is expanding, with products now catering to a variety of consumer needs, including muscle recovery and immune support [11][13] - Brands are focusing on convenience and portability in product design, aligning with consumer lifestyles that require on-the-go hydration solutions [13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The functional beverage market in China is projected to reach a scale of 281 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [9] - Despite the challenges, the electrolyte water segment shows promising growth potential, suggesting that distributors may still find viable opportunities in this category [9][15]