Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its model for North American large banks' Q3 2025 performance forecasts, indicating a mild impact on EPS growth of 0-1% and a median EPS estimate 3% higher than market consensus [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The median EPS forecast for North American banks in Q3 2025 is 3% above market consensus, with the largest increases expected for money center banks and State Street Bank (STT.US) [1] - Citigroup (C.US) is projected to have an EPS of $1.99, exceeding the market consensus of $1.83 by 9% [1] - Bank of America (BAC.US) is expected to report an EPS of $1.01, which is 7% higher than the consensus of $0.94 [1] - State Street Bank's EPS is forecasted to be 6% above consensus, while Northern Trust (NTRS.US) is expected to be 3% higher [1] - Most super-regional banks are projected to be 1-3% above consensus, with Truist Financial (TFC.US) and Wells Fargo (WFC.US) both expected to be 3% higher [1] Group 2: Key Financial Metrics - The model incorporates a macro assumption of an additional 125 basis points rate cut by the end of 2026, with a focus on Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) due to expected outperformance in investment banking fees and trading income [2] - Money center banks are expected to lead in asset growth, with JPMorgan Chase's average total assets projected to reach $4.43 trillion, an 8.4% year-over-year increase, and Bank of America expected to reach $3.47 trillion, a 5.5% increase [2] - The deposit structure shows a gradual decline in non-interest-bearing deposits, with Bank of America projected to have 26.0% in 2025, down from 26.7% in 2024 [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to remain stable, with a median estimate of 2.50% for 2025, while super-regional banks are projected to have higher NIMs [2] Group 3: Revenue Growth Drivers - Fee income is a core growth driver, with M&A fees expected to grow 30% year-over-year, significantly above the consensus growth of 11% [3] - Equity Capital Markets (ECM) fees are projected to increase by 41%, compared to a consensus of 30%, while Debt Capital Markets (DCM) fees are expected to grow by 4% against a consensus of 3% [3] - Money center banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expected to see over 9% year-over-year growth in fee income for 2025 [3] Group 4: Capital Returns - The median dividend payout ratio for banks in 2025 is expected to be around 30%, with money center banks showing a slight decrease from 27% to 29% [3] - JPMorgan is projected to pay $5.80 per share in dividends, while Citigroup is expected to pay $2.32 per share [3] - Stock buybacks are anticipated to increase significantly, with JPMorgan expected to repurchase $38.01 billion in 2025, up from $18.84 billion in 2024, and Citigroup expected to repurchase $13.47 billion, a substantial increase from $2.5 billion in 2024 [3] Group 5: Overall Outlook - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on North American large banks, suggesting that money center banks will outperform due to investment banking and trading income, while super-regional banks show stable asset quality [4] - Trust banks are expected to face pressure on net interest margins but still demonstrate resilience supported by fee income [4]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Trust Asset Management has appointed Slava Malkin as senior portfolio manager to enhance its long/short investment offerings, reflecting its commitment to expanding its investment capabilities in the market [1]. Company Overview - Northern Trust Asset Management is a leading global investment management firm with $1.3 trillion in assets under management as of June 30, 2025 [1]. - The firm has over three decades of experience in tax-advantaged and quantitative equity portfolios, positioning itself as a pioneer in these areas [1]. Strategic Development - The appointment of Slava Malkin aims to develop and manage Northern Trust Asset Management's long/short offerings, indicating a strategic move to diversify its portfolio options [1].

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing record highs despite uncertainties surrounding the government shutdown and economic conditions [3][4] - Historical patterns indicate that markets have generally shrugged off past government shutdowns, suggesting a potential for resilience [4] Economic Cycle and Monetary Policy - The economic cycle's current phase, along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, introduces uncertainty, particularly as the Fed shifts towards more accommodative measures [5] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, which is acknowledged by the Fed, contributing to investor anxiety [6] Interest Rate Outlook - There is a paradox where increased uncertainty may lead to a higher likelihood of future Fed interest rate cuts [7] - The expectation is for continued Fed rate cuts, potentially lowering the Fed funds rate by about 100 basis points over the next 12 months [8][9] Investment Strategy - A balanced portfolio should include both risk assets (stocks) and defensive assets (bonds), with a current preference for risk assets [10] - Confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy has led to increased exposure to U.S. markets, with a reduced likelihood of an outright recession [10] - Positive earnings estimates are anticipated, with companies having doubled their earnings estimates last quarter, indicating strong trends moving forward [11] Fiscal Stimulus and Technological Impact - There is a significant amount of fiscal stimulus in the U.S., which is expected to support economic growth [12] - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the market is a critical factor that cannot be overlooked [12]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is expected to report strong earnings growth in its upcoming third-quarter results, with analysts projecting a profit increase of 13.3% year-over-year, reflecting the company's solid performance and historical earnings surprise record [2][5]. Financial Performance - NTRS is anticipated to deliver a profit of $2.13 per share for Q3, up from $1.96 per share in the same quarter last year, indicating a 13.3% increase [2]. - For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts expect an EPS of $8.55, representing an 11% growth from $7.70 in 2024, with further growth projected for fiscal 2026 to $9.32 per share, a 9% year-over-year increase [3]. - Despite a 26.4% year-over-year decline in topline revenue to $2 billion in Q2, the company exceeded market expectations, and its EPS increased by 12.1% year-over-year to $2.13, surpassing consensus estimates by 2.4% [5]. Stock Performance - NTRS stock has appreciated by 50.7% over the past 52 weeks, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 17.6% and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund's 18.2% gains during the same period [4]. - Following the release of Q2 results, the stock experienced a decline of 1.8%, despite reporting better-than-expected financials [5]. Analyst Sentiment - The consensus rating for NTRS is "Hold," with 16 analysts providing varied opinions: two "Strong Buys," one "Moderate Buy," nine "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and three "Strong Sells" [6]. - The stock is currently trading above its mean price target of $132.46 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Trust Corporation is a financial services company that offers asset servicing, fund administration, and wealth management, recognized for its strong dividend offerings and potential for near-term performance [1][5][6] Company Overview - Northern Trust operates in the finance sector and competes with institutions like State Street and BNY Mellon [1] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $25.49 billion and a trading volume of 1,173,714 shares [4] Stock Performance - As of September 29, 2025, Morgan Stanley maintained an "Underweight" rating but raised the price target from $110 to $131, indicating some optimism despite caution [2][6] - The stock was priced at $133.31, reflecting a year-to-date price change of 28.18% [2] - The stock's current price represents a 1.47% increase from the previous day, with fluctuations between $131.70 and $135 during the trading day [4] Investment Appeal - Northern Trust is recognized as a strong momentum stock by Zacks Investment Research, suggesting it is well-positioned for strong near-term performance [3][6] - The company's consistent dividend payments are a significant attraction for investors seeking steady income, contributing to long-term returns [5][6]

Company Overview - Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is based in Chicago and operates in the Finance sector, with a year-to-date share price change of 28.18% [3] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.80 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.44%, which is lower than the Banks - Major Regional industry's yield of 3.2% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.54% [3] Dividend Performance - The current annualized dividend of Northern Trust is $3.20, reflecting a 6.7% increase from the previous year [4] - Over the past five years, the company has increased its dividend once on a year-over-year basis, with an average annual increase of 2.01% [4] - The current payout ratio is 36%, indicating that the company paid out 36% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Expectations - Northern Trust is expected to see earnings growth this fiscal year, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 at $8.54 per share, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 10.91% [5] Investment Considerations - NTRS is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] - The company is viewed as a solid dividend option, particularly in contrast to high-growth businesses or tech start-ups that typically do not offer dividends [6]

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- #assetmanagement--Northern Trust will announce Q3 earnings on Wednesday, October 22, 2025. ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Trust and UBD have entered into a collaboration focused on research and development initiatives in digital assets and innovations within financial markets [1] Company Collaboration - The partnership aims to leverage expertise in digital assets to enhance financial market innovations [1] - This collaboration signifies a strategic move towards integrating digital asset research into traditional financial services [1] Industry Implications - The agreement reflects a growing trend in the financial industry towards embracing digital assets and innovative technologies [1] - Such partnerships may lead to advancements in asset management and investment strategies, potentially reshaping market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Qualcomm has had a lackluster year but is currently making a positive move, particularly after expanding its relationship with Google Cloud to enhance in-car experiences through agentic AI [1] - Qualcomm shares rose 0.7% to close at $165.26 [5] Group 2 - Vertiv Holdings announced the acquisition of Waylay NV, a leader in hyperautomation and generative AI software platforms, which may enhance its market position [2] - Vertiv shares gained 0.1% to close at $136.83 [5] Group 3 - Northern Trust Corporation is expected to break out to the upside following the announcement of Jessica Donohue joining as head of Product Management for Asset Servicing [3] - Northern Trust shares gained 0.2% to close at $129.46 [5] Group 4 - iShares China Large-Cap ETF is expected to benefit from anticipated stimulus in China, with shares gaining 1.4% [2][5]

Core Points - Northern Trust has decreased its prime rate from 7.50% to 7.25%, effective September 18, 2025 [1][8]. Company Overview - Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS) is a prominent provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking services to corporations, institutions, affluent families, and individuals [2]. - Founded in Chicago in 1889, Northern Trust operates globally with offices in 24 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., as well as 22 locations across Canada, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, Northern Trust had assets under custody/administration amounting to US$18.1 trillion and assets under management totaling US$1.7 trillion [2].