近日，摩根士丹利针对北美大型银行2025年第三季度(3Q25)业绩前瞻与关键指标发布研报，将模型进行 调整，覆盖北美货币中心银行(美银、花旗、高盛、摩根大通等)、超级区域银行(PNC、地区金融公司 等)及信托银行(纽约梅隆银行、道富银行等)三类机构，为10月14日启动的银行财报季提供核心预测。 存款结构上，无息存款占比缓慢下降，如美银2025E 26.0%，2024年26.7%，计息存款成本逐步降低， 如美银2025E 2.23%，2024年2.61%，缓解息差压力。净息差(NIM)整体稳定，2025E中位数2.50%，超级 区域银行净息差较高，地区金融公司(RF.US)2025E为3.60%，信托银行较低，纽约梅隆银行 (BK.US)2025E为1.28%。 费用收入是核心增长动力之一，投行业务费增速显著超共识：M&A费用2025E同比增长30%，市场共识 增长11%，ECM费用同比增长41%，共识增长30%，DCM费用同比增长4%，市场共识增长3%;摩根大 通、高盛等货币中心银行手续费收入2025E同比增长超9%。拨备与不良资产方面，2025年拨备温和增 长，摩根大通2025E拨备122.12亿美元，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity of understanding bank profitability, highlighting that traditional metrics like interest margin, cost of expenses, and asset impairment losses do not provide a complete picture of a bank's true earning capacity [4][20][22]. Group 1: Understanding Bank Profitability - The profitability of banks cannot be solely determined by analyzing interest margins and impairment losses, as these metrics do not allow for effective peer comparison [4][22]. - For example, Bank A with a 2.5% interest margin and Bank B with a 2% interest margin can both achieve the same net profit of 1%, indicating that higher interest margins do not necessarily equate to better profitability [5][6][7]. - The article discusses the importance of understanding the underlying business model and risk management strategies of banks, particularly in the context of small and micro loans [14][18][19]. Group 2: Risk and Business Models - The article presents a case where high-interest loans can be associated with low risk, particularly in regions with strong micro-enterprise demand, suggesting that local knowledge can mitigate risks [11][13]. - It argues that small banks are better positioned to manage small and micro loans due to their flexibility and closer ties to local businesses [18][19]. - The discussion includes the notion that a bank's risk profile cannot be judged solely on its loan portfolio size or interest margins; rather, it requires a deeper analysis of the specific business practices and regional economic conditions [60][66]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The article introduces the concept of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) as critical metrics for evaluating bank performance, with ROA being influenced by interest margin, cost of expenses, and impairment losses [25][31][48]. - A comparison of two banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Hangzhou Bank, reveals that despite ICBC having a larger asset base, Hangzhou Bank demonstrates a higher ROA and ROE due to its effective use of leverage [34][48][55]. - The article concludes that Hangzhou Bank's higher valuation should be reflected in its price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to ICBC, suggesting that current market valuations may not accurately represent the banks' underlying performance [76][78].