Core Insights - The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, achieved several all-time highs in 2025, closing with a gain of 16.6% [1] Performance Overview - The SPDR S&P 500 stock is exhibiting positive momentum, with a comparison of top-performing stocks in 2025 against previous years during President Trump's administration [2] - The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive years of returns of 16% or better, with strong performance particularly noted in the semiconductor sector [3] Historical Context - The 2025 return of 16.6% is the fourth best among the five years Trump has been in office, and it is the worst return in the last three years, ranking as the seventh best over the past decade [5][6] - Historical returns during Trump's presidency include significant gains from top stocks, with SanDisk Corp leading at +560.2% and other notable performers like Western Digital Corp and Micron Technology [6] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector has been highlighted as a key area of interest, with several companies within this sector ranking among the top performers in 2025 [3][4] - Previous years under Trump's administration also saw strong performances in health care, consumer discretionary, and technology sectors, indicating a trend of sectoral strength during his terms [4] Future Outlook - Investors are hopeful for a return to strong gains similar to those seen in previous years, particularly as historical patterns suggest that the second year of presidential terms may yield lower returns [8]

Core Insights - Recent declines in U.S. stocks are concerning as they contradict the historical Santa Claus rally, yet major indexes posted solid gains in 2025 despite an April sell-off due to tariff declarations by President Trump [2] - The "January Effect" is expected to boost stock prices as investors reinvest year-end bonuses and engage in tax-loss harvesting, leading to renewed buying in the markets [3] Company Insights NVIDIA - NVIDIA is positioned for strong growth driven by demand for AI hardware and easing U.S.-China trade tensions, with projected fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenues around $65 billion [5][7] - The expected earnings growth rate for NVIDIA is 55.9%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) at $4.66, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase [8] Micron Technology - Micron's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips are in continuous demand, expected to drive growth in fiscal second-quarter 2026 revenues between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion [11][12] - The projected earnings growth rate for Micron is 278.3%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS at $31.36, indicating a 185.9% year-over-year increase [13] Palantir Technologies - Palantir is set for growth due to the increasing adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) among U.S. government and commercial clients, projecting total revenues for 2025 between $4.396 billion and $4.400 billion [15][16] - The expected earnings growth rate for Palantir is 42.5%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS at $0.73, reflecting a 52.1% year-over-year increase [17]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock has experienced a significant decline at the start of 2026, following a remarkable 138% increase in 2025, attributed to a combination of market factors rather than company-specific news [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Palantir shares fell by 5.9% on the first trading day of 2026, with the current price at $168.72 and a market cap of $424 billion [2]. - The stock's performance in 2025 was exceptional, with quarterly growth rates between 40% and 60%, leading to a substantial appreciation of 138% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall software sector experienced declines, indicating a broader market trend affecting Palantir, alongside a strong performance in semiconductor stocks suggesting a rotation among technology investors [2]. - Profit-taking may be occurring as investors look to sell shares at the beginning of the new year to defer capital gains tax payments until April 2027 [4]. Group 3: External Influences - Palantir's association with Elon Musk, a close friend of co-founder Peter Thiel, may be impacting investor sentiment, especially following Tesla's disappointing fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries [5][7]. - Despite no direct connection between Palantir and Tesla, investors may group them together due to their ties to the "PayPal Mafia" [7]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Outlook - Palantir's valuation remains high at 390 times trailing earnings, raising questions about sustainability despite the potential for continued growth driven by generative AI applications [9][10]. - The company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory will be critical in determining its future stock performance [10].

Core Viewpoint - Investing in Palantir and Nvidia is considered risky due to high valuations and concerns about a potential AI bubble burst [1] Company Analysis - Palantir and Nvidia are both facing scrutiny from investors regarding their future performance in the context of AI market dynamics [1] - The current market sentiment reflects a fear of overvaluation in the AI sector, which could lead to significant losses if a correction occurs [1]

BING-JHEN HONG / iStock Editorial via Getty Images Quick Read Michael Burry holds more bearish exposure to Palantir than Nvidia via put options. Billionaire Chris Rokos recently sold Palantir and bought Nvidia. Nvidia trades at 24.5x forward P/E while Palantir’s valuation remains significantly higher. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. It seems quite risky to place a bet on either Pa ...

科技龙头英伟达（NVDA）上涨3.2%、苹果（AAPL）上涨1.9%、Alphabet（GOOGL）上涨2.5%， Palantir（PLTR）小幅上扬0.05%。科技类ETF（XLK）也同步上扬1.6%。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened higher on the first trading day of 2026, with technology stocks attempting to continue the upward momentum from the previous year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has historically closed lower on the first trading day for the past three years, with a roughly 48% probability of closing higher since the 1950s [3][6]. - In 2025, the S&P 500 index rose over 16%, marking its third consecutive annual increase, while the Nasdaq Composite surged over 20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by approximately 13% [3][6]. - All three major indices reached historical highs last year [3][6]. Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks, particularly Nvidia and Palantir, continued their strong performance from 2025, with Nvidia rising about 39% and Palantir soaring 135% [3][6]. - Other tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft also saw significant gains [3][6]. Group 3: Tariff Impact - The stock prices of online home goods company Wayfair and luxury furniture retailer RH increased following President Trump's announcement to delay tariff hikes on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities by one year [3][6]. - The tariffs that were postponed include a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture and a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and vanities, while maintaining a 25% tariff that has been in effect since September [3][6]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank strategists noted that 2025 was a strong year due to sustained economic growth, optimism around artificial intelligence, and additional central bank rate cuts, despite significant volatility [4][7]. - Wall Street strategists predict further gains for U.S. stocks in 2026, with an average target for the S&P 500 index set at 7629 points, indicating an upside potential of 11.4% [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's shares have experienced volatility but are showing signs of recovery, despite a recent 7% decline attributed to a broader tech stock slump, suggesting potential resilience and investor confidence in CEO Alex Karp's leadership [1] Company Performance - The recent 7% drop in Palantir's stock is noted as part of a "Santa Claus slump" affecting tech stocks, indicating seasonal market trends [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider the company's potential for a comeback, particularly in light of bearish positions taken by notable investors like Michael Burry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF has shown strong performance driven by major technology companies, particularly in the AI sector, and is expected to continue outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026 [2][12]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF achieved a return of 27.5% in 2025, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's 17.5% return [2]. - Since its inception in 2001, the ETF has consistently outperformed the S&P 500, with a compound annual return of 11.6% compared to the S&P 500's 8.5% [12]. - Over the last decade, the ETF's accelerated compound annual return reached 22.9%, while the S&P 500 grew by 13.4% annually [12]. Group 2: Portfolio Composition - The ETF holds 291 stocks, primarily in the technology sector, with nearly 27% of its portfolio invested in semiconductor stocks [4]. - The top 10 holdings of the ETF account for 56% of its total weight, including major companies like Nvidia (8.92%), Microsoft (8.87%), and Apple (8.55%) [5][6]. - Other notable AI-related stocks in the ETF include Palantir Technologies, which saw a 139% stock gain due to high demand for its AI software products [10][11]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Major tech companies are expected to increase spending on AI data centers and infrastructure in 2026, which will likely benefit stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Micron [13]. - Cloud platforms operated by Alphabet and Microsoft are experiencing accelerating revenue growth, indicating successful investments in AI infrastructure [13]. - The dynamic nature of the tech sector suggests that even if the AI boom slows, other technologies such as robotics and quantum computing could drive growth for the ETF [14].

Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) , reflected on the company's employee equity strategy, saying early stock grants generated substantial wealth for the first team members.Equity-First Compensation ModelIn an interview released by Heartland Ventures last month, Lonsdale told host and founder, Max Brickman, that during early recruitment, he showed candidates equity value tables based on different company valuations.He explained that the company's equity-first compensation mode ...